caulfield12

Didn’t realize how good he was last year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/hyun-jin-ryu-three-four-year-contract-free-agency.html He has Boras, his age and injury history going against another otherworldly performance his last 265 IP. Looking for four years, likely will get three...has stated he would like to play with his countryman on the Rangers. Could be anywhere from 3/$54 to 4/$80 million the way this market is developing. Ryu and Keuchel/Hamels vs. 1 Wheeler in terms of total contract value at least is an interesting argument. The problem is that most teams in baseball have at least some interest in those Top 7 pitchers (including Keuchel and Hamels.) Getting two seems like a big stretch, especially with Boras involved and drawing out negotiations as long as feasible.

Well, that's going to be where there's a pretty significant debate between him, Bumgarner, Hamels and Keuchel for the "win now" teams that need the very best performance over the remainder of their careers to come in 2020. There are so many red flags on Ryu's health that Bumgarner's durability might win out, especially for NL teams. Ryu will be much more attractive to teams willing to overpay for just one season...like the Donaldson deal with the Braves last year.

Hamels and Keuchel will get way too much money (on a per year basis) to be a White Sox consideration (as a pairing)...and both are closer to "all-in" moves for 2020 than pitchers you'd want to have on your roster for the heart of the contention window from 2021-2023.

Definitely didn't anticipate this year's market if they thought Wheeler was going to be under $100 million...but any long-time White Sox fan has to have a feeling in the back of their mind that JR has known ALL ALONG that the 2019-20 market would blow up going into the union negotiations (in an effort to disprove collusion/tamping down prices for FA's). Of course, signing Moustakas to play 3rd after they moved Moncada over there would had made little sense...because they certainly didn't have any idea at that time he would be able to play second so respectably for the Brewers.

And Morrow. Soler/W.Davis didn't exactly work out, either. All those Royals' pen arms were burned out in 2014-15.

Brewers really hit the upper bounds on their payroll...and that's going for it with a "rag tag, band-aid" collection of starters. Yelich injury killed them. Even with really strong attendance since the new stadium, they can't compete with the large market teams for an extended period of time before a retooling period. They also have Braun and Cain...Lorenzo's seemingly in a rapid decline.

Drumming up his market...getting a dig in at Cubs' fans by teasing a move to the SouthSide. Good for winter baseball conversation. Almost everyone has him going back to the Phillies, who are more likely to be make one-year pitching bets with their current roster composition than be on the hook for 4-6 year commitments. They need to be all-in, but not in a way where they can't easily tear it down (other than Harper) if they don't make the playoffs in 2020 and 2021.

Gonzales is not nearly as good as the M's bill him as (he doesn't have 4-6 fWAR "potential" remaining in his arm that posts increasingly diminishing velocities)...and not as bad as commonly-perceived here, with most quickly dismissing him. He would be perfectly fine as a 4/5 back-end pitcher, but not if he was projected to a #2/3 like the White Sox did with Todd Ritchie a lifetime ago. That said, Haniger and Gonzales are the two "high value" players the M's have that are "in flux" in terms of their futures with the team...depending on what they can get back in trade. Haniger, they definitely have to give him a half season to rebound, because his value's down considerably from last year at this time.

Still think they're more likely to go for a Wacha, McHugh or Pineda type (rebound candidates) than overpaying Hamels based on his 2019 and THEN putting him in the AL...especially GRF. Just no way they add $40ish million in pitchers (not counting the bullpen need/s) in one offseason.

Nothing prospect Austin Allen and a player to be named later. Profar becomes the assumed starter at 2B. If Garrett Richards can recapture his form with Gore getting closer and closer...they’re not that far off. One more pitcher and deciding if they can rely on Hedges/Mejia at catcher.

The next one’s likely to be not auctioning off Contreras at peak value...and Happ/Almora falling backwards (in addition to Russell) when they really needed someone to step up for Zobrist. None of their youngsters took the next step behind the Core 4 as they call them. The bad FA $deals are always the headliners for Theo, but Lester was eventually going to get older and they haven’t been able to replenish the pitching pipeline internally. In the end, having too many aging/injured AND expensive players catches up with you every time. Just ask Boston.

Amateur tip: that’s the font size that SoxTalk is set on as a default when you copy and paste from an article using an IPad. Certainly there’s a way to set it at a smaller size. So what should the official size be that will be considered not too small and not too large. And I wasn’t trying to win any argument...I was explicating in the clearest terms possible, or rather the article was (and even it’s worded somewhat confusingly, as you admit in the very next post.) But thanks to The Bolded Police...err...Hooded Justice, greater Tulsa and now SoxTalk is now liberated from the tyranny...of someone taking the time to highlight the most salient points for other readers. Long live Dr. Manhattan.

The problem is I actually remembered it incorrectly...but the years were basically accurate. It wasn’t that all TJ pitchers on average only last 4.5 years before second surgery/revision...it was that for those who do need a second surgery, the average time from 1st to second procedure is/was 4 years. Yet the current risk on Wheeler seems more than “de minimus,” because Boras is making the best possible case for his client, Strasburg. Wheeler took 2 1/2 years to return, experiencing setbacks in 2016 and 2017 and not being 100% until Years 3&4 after TJ. And he’s only 5 years out from surgery (as of next Spring Training), so still in the “danger zone,” relatively speaking (not to quote Kenny Loggins.) Strasburg is coming off a 2019 campaign in which he threw a career-high 245 1⁄3 innings in the regular season and postseason combined, and he is nine years removed from Tommy John surgery now, Rosenthal noted, and, “... the odds of a pitcher requiring a second TJ are not particularly high, according to a study published by the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2018.” The average time for a pitcher who needs a second Tommy John surgery is four years after the first procedure, according to their data, and Strasburg is now well beyond that window. Also working in Strasburg’s favor? The fact that his fastball velocity isn’t quite what it used to be (94 MPH+ AVG in 2019 on his four-seamer and sinker) and he’s throwing fastballs significantly less than he used to (a career-low 48.3% of the time in 2019), while focusing more on his offspeed offerings this season (30.6% curveballs and 20.7% changeups, both career highs, percentage-wise). As Rosenthal writes, Strasburg has gone nine years on his new UCL while lowering, “his risk factors along the way.” With career lows in peak velocity (Strasburg maxed out at 96.9 on his four-seam and sinker this season), and average velocity, the right-hander is trending in the right direction, and his decreased fastball usage is a positive as well. And the need for a second procedure among “established major league pitchers” or “elite” starting pitchers, as Boras told Rosenthal, is less than 2%. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/washington-nationals-rumors-will-stephen-strasburg-quickly-return-to-dc-this-winter/ar-BBXd2PU

We’re seriously overthinking things to worry over just $5 million when we wasted $35 million last offseason and needlessly gave Abreu another $32 million guaranteed without seeing how he’d perform in 2020 first. Penny wise, pound foolish...

Ask PTAC. The success rate for second is roughly 60%, close to 80% for first. You have to consider all the pitchers that are not well known... just like the average NFL career is something like 2.8 years. Of course there are exceptions. I'd have to look up an article I quoted from the last two years written by researchers with one of the sports representation agencies. Think of all the pitchers who don't change mechanics or have other major injuries due to changes that put more stress on the shoulder or labrum or forearm. If the average was 8-9 years before second TJ... we'd all be having zero worries about Wheeler getting a 5-6 year deal. But that's definitely not the case here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_underwent_Tommy_John_surgery March, 2015 He basically missed 2 1/2 seasons...then has had two full seasons, 2018 and 2019. 17 GS in 2017, 29 in 2018, 31 in 2019. So healthy for 2 1/2 years as well. Fwiw, the average amount of time before a second revision/correction TJ surgery averages about 4 1/2 years (which would have been near the end of the 2019 season for Wheeler.) Strasburg has successfully gone close to 8 without any problems. He was shut down in late 2017 with right forearm stiffness after having biceps tendonitis in the middle of his recovery season back from TJ (normally would have been expected back by mid 2016). Also had a mild flexor strain in 2016 in the middle of the year after starting the 2nd year of his TJ comeback on the 60 day DL, causing him to miss the entire season. Wheeler moved from Smyrna to Dallas, Georgia, to attend East Paulding High School, where he played baseball and basketball.[5][1] Wheeler was an unheralded ballplayer until he hit a growth spurt at 15 years old; his height eventually reached 6 feet 4 inches and his fastball exceeded 90 miles per hour, attracting the attention of scouts.[1] In 2008, his junior year, he went 8–3 with a 1.31 ERA and 127 strikeouts over 64 1⁄3 innings and was named AAA Region Pitcher of the Year.[6] In 2009, his senior year, Wheeler pitched in 13 games and finished 9–0 with an 0.54 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 77 2⁄3 innings. That year he was named the 2009 Gatorade High School Player of the Year for Georgia.[5] source: wikipedia

Aren't you looking closer to $175-225 million to make it worthwhile? Robert around $115-125 million? Still would be pretty shocked if Hahn could get either of those 2, OR Giolito.

If I broke the story in China Monday morning at 11:14 a.m., it's 9:14 p.m. in Chicago the previous night (Sunday). The problem with this idea is that while the Japanese reporter would actually be awake and theoretically writing stories at that time in the morning...and most sportswriters are usually late morning arrivals at work, wouldn't the 24 hour globalized news cycle tend to prevent any situation like this, with everyone connected by Ipad/tablet/device every minute of the day? Just hard to imagine a story like that could ever break out of another country...other than Pedro Gomez-Dominican related players, like with Machado last year. And that's basically the same time zone as US (EST). Takatsu's uncle? I guess the loyalty program with JR REALLY never ends, if Shingko and Tadahito are still plugged into White Sox sources BUT we can't manage to get another player out of that market in 15 years...

Hudson and Cooper didn’t part on the best of terms...

But to say he’s the best in the business...when it’s standard operating procedure the last fifteen years? The Indians were even doing this in the mid 90’s. And the only reason we have a rebuild is due to the fact we couldn’t successfully build a core, either through FA or the draft or player development, yes? The difference is those other teams extended contention windows rather than being forced to auction off their best pieces. In the end, signing extensions with Robert, Giolito and Moncada will all be considerably more difficult...despite the “friends and family” approach of keeping Abreu around much longer than anticipated.

Ummm...the Indians probably had double the number of early extensions over the last two decades (when Hahn was already in charge of this for the Sox). The Rays are way more proficient, for example.

Almost starting to feel sorry for the Cubs...almost...when their FA search list looks like the White Sox of the past decade. https://theathletic.com/1416182/2019/11/29/trust-the-process-how-the-cubs-can-land-a-starter-and-reshape-their-rotation/?source=weeklyemail But look at the rest of the free-agent list and notice former American League Cy Young Award winners like Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello and 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Gio González, Wade Miley and Tanner Roark have started multiple playoff games. Some team will look beyond Michael Pineda’s PED suspension and Tommy John history and bet on his top-prospect pedigree and relatively low total of big-league innings (826). Julio Teheran (77-73, 3.67 ERA) was once a young Braves pitcher the Cubs evaluated as a trade target while trying to sort through their inventory of young hitters, and he still won’t turn 30 until 2021. Another ex-Brave — Alex Wood (53-43, 3.40 ERA) — is coming off an injury-plagued season with the Cincinnati Reds and will be only 29 next year. The Cubs previously tried to trade for Collin McHugh, who also had a rough season heading into free agency. With the Houston Astros, McHugh won 19 games as a starter in 2015, earned a World Series ring in 2017 and posted a 1.99 ERA — with 94 strikeouts in 72.1 innings — across 58 appearances as a reliever in 2018.

Knives Out is definitely worth checking out, Ana de Armas was the star of the show. Daniel Craig seemed like he was really having fun for the first time in ages as an actor, since taking the Bond role. Excellent cast is the strength of this one...what those Agatha Christie murder mysteries endeavored to be. Would never imagine a Star Wars director could pull off such a completely different genre of film so well.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/sports/csn/giants/Why_Zack_Wheeler_could_be_perfect_fit_for_Giants_in_MLB_free_agency_BAY.html Same exact arguments here for SFG as the White a Sox as a potential Wheeler landing spot. Still think the final dollars will be closer to $115 million than low $70’s at this point, though.

Counting on Burdi (or Burger, that matter) is a fool’s errand at this point. Back to the earlier question on Haniger...just have a feeling that selling too low on him this offseason isn’t going to happen. That brings us to the two players the M’s themselves identified as critical: Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales. Haniger’s lost year made 2019 harder to watch, and harder to evaluate. He wasn’t tearing things up before he tore…a really important thing up, but I’m fine giving him a mulligan. We’ve all been waiting for him to make the leap from excellent/All-Star candidate RF to superstar, and he’s still got the possibility, though it’s diminishing with age. And if Mitch was hard to evaluate, I’m not even sure what to say about Marco Gonzales. I’ll start with this: He’s better than a lot of people, including me, give him credit for. I think I’ve been the most pessimistic about his chances to succeed with diminished velo, but he’s been a quality MLB starter this year, albeit with some hot/cold streaks of his own. It all adds up to someone that’s more than the sum of his peripherals/measurables, and I think I’ve underestimated him because of that. But you can put a thumb or two on the scale for his pitchability and competitiveness and still not have an ace, and I’m still not sure why the M’s have seemed to argue that he is one, or could become one. Gonzales ended up essentially repeating his good 2018, albeit with fewer strikeouts and more walks. The ERA was essentially identical, so he’s got two years of a 4.00 ERA, and two years of solid HR-suppression. I think his 2018-2019 run is essentially the best anyone could hope for given his bat-missing and velocity, and while that level of production is higher than I ever would’ve thought possible, I simply don’t see a path to a 6-8 WAR season. Give Marco 5 extra MPH and you could, but at this point, I’d just settle for him stopping the velo decline. http://www.ussmariner.com