caulfield12

All those farm subsidies and Christian fundamentalists holding strong in western part of state I guess...it's crazy a state that voted twice for Obama (including caucuses) voted for Trump last time at 8-9% or whatever the final tally turned out to be.

If Biden/Cunningham both lose in NC, that makes it increasingly unlikely that you flip the Senate. Graham already won quite easily in SC, despite being in a race with record-setting fundraising for Harrison. Same with Ossoff in GA, KY for McGrath, spending doesn't equate to victory (or Ted Cruz's Senate race last cycle),

If you substitute Iowa's 6 for let's say Michigan's 16... And Biden wins AZ/WI/PA... That gets you to 268... Wisconsin is already closing the gap, down to Trump still up 1.7% with 35% reporting.

And that +25% for Biden in Minnesota....that has to have some correlation at least with how WI eventually goes.

You add in CA, OR, WA, NV, you get to Biden 221. WI/MI/PA=46 That's 267 Not counting Arizona. Not counting Iowa. Not counting 2 from ME/NE that could go either way.

I haven't sat down to calculate the numbers, but doesn't Biden still win with WI/MI/PA and then Arizona? Or he still needs ME and NE single electors?

We still have 90-100,000,000 votes to come in...granted, a lot of them will be from California and late.

It's pretty rare over the last 20-30 years that they call a state too early and then have to take it back. Maybe 2-3% probability, at most.

Well, one thing's for sure...Trumpism hasn't clearly been repudiated.

Have this new block forming with TX, NM, MO (unlikely), possibly AZ, Colorado, KS....not sure what the heck it would be called. If Iowa goes to Biden, it would connect the US from north to south, going through Minnesota/WI to the border.

Many news outlets are already giving VA to Biden...

Not really, because Trump would still have to win PA, NC and Ohio....Biden only had to hold the Blue Wall and take either Iowa, Ohio, NC, Georgia, Florida (this is looking increasingly unlikely), AZ or Texas.

Kansas and Texas are more interesting (at least so far) than I would have thought. North Carolina and Ohio looking like strong possibilities to turn the course of the night and election...this very well might be the last election before Texas goes blue, but that's going to take hours to play out as well. Florida is a BIT of a surprise, but not really. Georgia bears watching late into the night.

Did you, per chance, work as a researcher on any of Peter Schweizer’s books...?

Except for the fact he lives there 29% of the year.

First lawsuit of the day.... And as the polls opened in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, Republicans filed a federal lawsuit that took aim at how election officials in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County handled absentee ballots that arrived before Election Day. The plaintiffs allege officials in this suburban Philadelphia county conducted "pre-canvassing" of ballots before 7 a.m. ET Tuesday and allowed people to fix perceived defects in their ballots. The Republicans want any changed ballots set aside. cnn.com

Spalding went to Trump by 5.7% in 2016, fwiw. All three GA key races will be tight. Obama wouldn’t have been there last night for no reason. Handel will get creamed. ATL suburbs hemorrhaging votes that were former GOP, like Gingrich’s old district.

Florida will be the obvious repercussion over PR and Covid (seniors splitting) where Trump will have nobody but himself to blame in retrospect...all he had to do was hand out relief supplies like a decent, conscientious human being with an ounce of empathy.

When will it be limited for corporations and the Top 1%? Why should Bezos, Buffett, Gates and Zuck pay taxes at a rate of only 60-65% of the rate charged to their administrative assistants earning just $50,000 per year.....due to capital gains being fixed so low due to lobbyists?

When 65-70% of economic activity is generated from/by blue states and 65% of Federal government spending is reallocated to those red states, like Kentucky, for example...something is radically wrong. How could anyone argue that’s fair or equitable? Or that not even 1/3rd of Americans believe a woman’s right to get an abortion should be limited in the first two trimesters...and it certainly doesn’t make any sense when fewer and fewer people believe in God or go to church each year, but we’re going to set the clock back 40 years because of 87,000 votes in PA, MI, and WI four years ago? Or that those same 87,000 voters are going to potentially throw 20,000,000+ people off their health insurance in the middle of a pandemic?

And that lasted all of two years under Obama. Cue Tea Party. Cue "balanced budget/austerity policies" (continue to starve the government to death by nicks and cuts, only spending increases are for the military) Cue obstructionism (Mitch McConnell) at every turn. Forget working together with the other party, that only gets you primaried out of power altogether by the radical wings of both the Democratic Party and the GOP. There's actually an incentive built into the system NOT to compromise or meet the middle to come to an agreement. Let's not forget that even with all three entities of the same party, it still came down to one or two votes for Obamacare, because the entire GOP turned against a healthcare policy that was more conservative than Mitt Romney's own program in Massachusetts that was relatively well received on both sides of the political aisle. Because...Obama.

In two key states that President-elect Donald Trump won, his margin of victory was smaller than the total number of votes for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Michigan, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes, while Stein got 51,463 votes, according to current totals on the state’s official website. And in Wisconsin, Trump’s margin over Clinton was 22,177, while Stein garnered 31,006 votes. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, Stein’s total of 49,485 votes was just slightly smaller than Trump’s victory margin of 67,416 votes, according to the state’s latest numbers. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/308353-trump-won-by-smaller-margin-than-stein-votes-in-all-three That's without even taking Gary Johnson into consideration... That said, a number of political scientists are convinced that George HW Bush had at least a 50/50 chance of knocking off a Bill Clinton campaign wracked with scandals if you took Perot out of that race. https://www.wsj.com/articles/did-perot-spoil-1992-election-for-bush-its-complicated-11562714375

You can add Bernie Sanders. The problem is WHAT THE HELL IS TRUMP's ACTUAL PLAN for a second term? He doesn't have one. He simply wants to hold onto power, out of ego and also an increasing fear of prosecution/investigations post-presidency. Finally, the fact that the Trump brand is so over-leveraged and he owes hundreds of millions of dollars to foreign banks...it's quite obvious personal motivations are overriding what's good for the greatest number of Americans. Between COVID-19 response and the sheer idiocy of trying to kick 20+ million Americans off Obamacare in the midst of a pandemic and put them without health insurance and a job into the pre-existing condition category now with precisely NO PLAN WHATSOEVER to replace Obamacare, anyone who's working poor/middle or lower middle class/dependent on Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid would be insane to vote for this guy. Who in God's name thinks THAT is a good idea? I can't think of a single Republican politician in the 1950's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's or even early 2000's (compassionate conservatism under GW Bush) who would have agreed with such folly.

For the record, Obama won 54% of the Catholic vote in 2008. The collision of peace and social justice, the Golden Rule aspects of Christianity (how we treat the poor in society) versus The Prosperity Gospels, capital punishment/abortion/homosexuality focus represented by the extreme right wing of religious/evangelical/fundamentalist voters. Impossible to reconcile the two sides, pretty much...so people pick and choose like they're ordering at a McDonald's instead. Just like they completely overlook every single aspect of Trump's personal life (divorces, affairs, assault claims by 25ish women, lack of interest in attending church or following the Bible except for using it as a prop like in ELMER GANTRY) and his policies that benefit themselves or their personal interests in some way, shape or form. Hypocrisy doesn't even exist as a word in American lexicon because there's just no longer any shame (see Merrick Garland positions in 2016 versus GOP "twisting oneself into a pretzel while smirking" quotes from 2020 on ACB.)

This is the main reason I want Buttigieg to win someday.....to consistently confound Fox News reporters/questioners, evangelicals and especially those who can't reconcile homosexuality with religion and want to "cure" gay people. He knows the Bible and faith better than 95% of those in the GOP, except for those extreme examples like Pence. He can certainly run rings around anyone in the Democratic Party already.