caulfield12

Looking for now like we'll still be waiting until around lunchtime Thursday (CST) before Nevada results clarified https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/nov/04/nevada-official-more-results-may-come-wednesday-af/ Early results showed Joe Biden with a slim lead over President Donald Trump in Nevada, but it was too early to declare a winner in the race Wednesday with a large number of ballots yet to be counted. The top elections official in the most populous county said more results will be released Thursday morning that include mail-in ballots received on Tuesday and Wednesday. Biden was leading Wednesday afternoon by less than 8,000 votes. Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said at a news conference Wednesday afternoon that he did not have a number for how many ballots had been received but uncounted in the Las Vegas area. The Nevada Deputy Secretary of State for Elections Wayne Thorley said in a text message earlier Wednesday that the state would likely release some additional results that afternoon but said a few hours later that the state would wait until Thursday morning. Election officials in Washoe County, Nevada's second-largest which includes Reno, said Wednesday afternoon that they would not be releasing more results until 10 a.m. Thursday morning. In Las Vegas, Gloria said he would be holding daily 10 a.m. news conferences until all ballots were counted, including provisional ballots that were cast by voters taking advantage of same-day registration, electronic ballots sent to overseas voters or for disabled voters. Results released so far have not included mail-in ballots received on Election Day, along with any mail ballots postmarked later than Nov. 3 that arrive over the next week and any provisional ballots.

Kelly will be one of the principal reasons for the Biden win. Kelly at 4.6% up, Biden at "just" 2.8%. Without the motivation to go out and also vote for Senate, it's arguable that Trump would have had enough of his loyal and "highly motivated" voters to take the state.

Welcome to divided government. It's what the people generally want. Look at the massive pushback just two years after Clinton and Obama were elected with coattails. The big question now is what the Supremes do about healthcare.

One positive, we don’t have to spend the next two years consumed with court packing arguments unless the Dems pick off one of those two GA races in January and/or unless Manchin, Murkowski or Collins side with them as well. That could all change if the Supreme Court really goes ahead and invalidates Obamacare next week. Ossoff in GA will have received more campaign funds than any Dem in modern political history to keep losing, lol. A judge told USPS to search mail for ballots by 3 p.m. on Election Day. USPS said no. 300,000 ballots under scrutiny https://www.yahoo.com/news/judge-told-usps-search-mail-141505704.html Now the USPS faces a discussion Wednesday about its "apparent lack of compliance with the Court's order," according to an order filed by Sullivan later Tuesday. Sullivan acknowledged the efforts underway and said he was inclined to let them continue. The facilities targeted were in central Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Detroit, Colorado/Wyoming, Atlanta, Houston, Alabama, Northern New England, Greater South Carolina, South Florida, Lakeland, and Arizona. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit, which includes the participation-focused group Vote Forward, have sought redress for reported mail delivery obstacles ahead of the election. Similarly, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel this summer joined a number of states in a federal lawsuit against the USPS after slowdowns in the mail service.

PA has been on that same number for 8-10 hours at Yahoo. I would trust NY Times, CNN or WaPo more. Yahoo is based on AP? Also, wonder if Yahoo is going to dare to reopen their comments sections on articles or wait at least until election is certified.

https://forward.com/opinion/457880/what-trumps-inroads-with-latino-voters-means-for-the-democrats/ Going by the tar and feather Democrats as Marxist/Socialists campaign strategy in South Florida...one writer wonders about the consequences for Dems going forward. Sanders vs. Trump would have been a much more interesting campaign, but not sure who would have prevailed in states like AZ, NV and the three Blue Wall Midwestern ones.

Another one mentioned was Sterling Heights... https://www.yahoo.com/news/money-wasnt-everything-this-year-as-wellfunded-democrats-fell-short-173148997.html Democrats set all kinds of fundraising records for Senate races without very much to show for their spending

You’d think eight consecutive years of seventy-somethings would be more than enough...especially when the Cold War with China is increasingly going to be waged over advanced tech. If you’re Haley, Pence, Pompeo, Rubio, Cruz this was about the worst possible result looking down the road to 2024. Maybe there’s an agreement not to prosecute Trump out of office if he makes an agreement not to ever run again...

https://news.yahoo.com/remaining-vote-pennsylvania-appears-overwhelmingly-125954708.html Odds increasingly in Biden’s favor for PA as well...just in case.

Yeah, it really looked positive for Florida and Ohio at that point. Iowa, you had a similar phenomenon. If they had another 2-3 weeks to go, Trump really had a great chance to catch Biden. That 100,000,000ish early count held up just enough against a late breaking Trump wave the last 7-10 days, especially with Hispanics in places like Miami-Dade. The GOP did surprisingly well in Senate as well as House. The candidate we talked about a lot two years ago, Abbie Finkenauer from Iowa, one of the youngest reps, lost by 3-4. Cheri Bustos had a real tight race on the NW Illinois side.

Likely means Peters to the Senate as well from MI. Picked up CO, AZ...NC, IA, went the other direction, although still slim hopes for Cunninghan and Biden there. Not counting on either GA seat, although Loeffler would seem like the easier one to knock off. Jones lost AL, which everyone expected. Collins really looked like she was history heading into this election, straddling line between Trump and her moderate/centrist roots

Five major urban centers still to go in MI...in the end, lots are now predicting MI won’t even end up all that close. Not to mention Genessee County/Flint hasn’t even turned blue yet. MI should have results by this evening, according to Secretary of State. Lots of Clark and another major urban area in Nevada outstanding...

Biden now up by just 8,000 votes with 95% counted in Wisconsin. Double wow. Trump up now only 1.4% in Michigan with 13% left to go. Triple wow. North Carolina Trump up 1.4% with 6% left to go. Georgia margin still at 100,000+ in Trump’s favor. PA still a long way left with 36% outstanding.

Wow, Nevada’s not going to update until Friday morning. So suspense still in six states, although North Carolina changing seems the most remote possibility at the moment.

As of right now 244 Biden Adding NV 231 Trump Adding AK, NC Wisconsin 10 Michigan 16 PA 20 Georgia 16 Biden slight favorite according to NY Times predictive needle If he comes back and wins GA, he just needs one of the three Blue Wall states to overturn Trump leads. In the Michigan Senate race, Peters was polling way up, there’s just no way a 16 point swing is possible there. Somehow off by 1 EC vote, coming up with 537 for some reason.

Biden and HRC weren't dynamic, change candidates. They never offered an alternative that was attractive or compelling enough. Biden might still win, but playing it too safe and getting the majority of your votes for not being Trump isn't a winning strategy. It really feels like they tried to run out the clock with the lead... and Trump was totally the aggressor over the last couple of weeks and contested the election until the bitter end across the country. The Dems could have realistically run Fauci or Cuomo instead of Biden and won...the age and mental erosion charges really seemed to stick, as well. More came out to vote against Harris than for her, seemingly.

President Donald Trump railed against the Supreme Court on Monday for its decision to allow an extended count of Pennsylvania mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, tweeting that doing so would lead to violent unrest in the country.

From a financial/economic standpoint, Covid-19, Obamacare, etc. Trump will have no solutions or plans, limited financial flexibility in terms of a divided Congress and $30+ trillion in debt and we'll see if the Senate is 49-51/50-50/51-49. Manchin could likely give Trump another vote. One could argue that four more years of Trump would be like the last 4 years of GW Bush. That it would tarnish the GOP brand by the end of it for another generation of voters. That said, it only took eight years, and really even just four (if you count Katrina and 2006 as the death of Bush GOPism) before the Tea Party resurgence.

205 to 112 Biden Nevada 6 (Biden) Hawaii 4 (Biden) Maine 4/split (1 to Biden?) Arizona 11 Wisconsin 10 Michigan 16 Pennsylvania 20 Minnesota 10 Iowa 6 Nebraska (1?) NV/Hawaii/Minnesota gets you to 225 65 more votes out there

Just like everyone is "burned out" from Covid-19...the same thing is happening here with the election, really need a shocking announcement that changes the direction of the race yet again. Kind of feel like a malaise is setting in. It certainly is setting up to be an election that drags into the next 2-3 days at a bare minimum.

And I totally forgot to add in Hawaii's 4. So there's still at least 6 other possible votes out there for Biden, and Maine's weird situation (4 total, 1 likely to Biden, at least).

Yes, I know the late-breaking polls were all going in the direction of Trump and Ernst. Maybe viewing it through rose-colored glasses, but Iowa always seems to surprise in both caucuses and the Presidential races. We shall see if that trend continues, with MN/WI flipping as well as bordering states.

For what it's worth, the PA mail-in/absentee ballots (first or initial results announcement) was supposed to be dumped altogether at 11 p.m. EST according to their election officials.

Arizona update hasn't changed in what seems like 30 minutes after originally showing up with such a high percentage already in...also, looks like Georgia is going to join the crowd with WI/MI/PA of counting into the night and subsequent days.

Right now, looks like you gain AZ (Kelly), maybe Iowa (Greenfield over Ernst), Bullock/Daines and Collins/Gideon races just have no idea how to call them. Hickenlooper over Gardner the only flip for sure and in the books so far. Cunningham's scandal might be the tipping point there in NC, Cooper wins governorship but perhaps Trump the state overall by a few points. Very easily ends up 50/50 tie in the Senate the way things are looking right now.