caulfield12

https://www.ajc.com/news/distrust-and-worry-help-fuel-voter-turnout-in-east-georgia/MG5BAVXYUZEG5BDLOC6LRPFI4Q/

One thing is for sure, if both GOPers are ahead before everyone goes to bed and then they later are “caught” by absentee ballot counting (going 4-5/1 ratio for Dems), it’s just going to continue to reinforce that stolen election storyline. Or that the Dems won by promising $2000 check socialism/giveaways (what will be later conveniently forgotten is that it’s Trump’s exact same position.) 3D or 5D chess, amirite? Trump actually prefers Dem “control” of both houses to give him even more grounds to later assail it in 2022/24?

According to RCP, Warnock and Ossoff were up 1.3% and 1% so no idea what to expect. Split decision? Loeffler is clearly the worst of the two in terms of obedience to Trump...and her stock trading was even more unseemly, not to mention her inability to get along with her own WNBA team.

Somehow I doubt the dramatic twists could equal Tiger King... but real life is often stranger than fiction, right?

Well, he could be the first big leaguer in history with that particular spelling of his first name.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/a-year-without-fandom-why-these-baseball-fans-stopped-watching-in-2020-and-how-mlb-can-win-them-back-211618097.html

They were supposed to have 300k contact tracers at this point, but still only have around 70,000. Giving credit for the vaccine but not developing the distribution system is beside the point. You can’t just keep blaming state and local issues when an unprecedented situation calling for Federal intervention arises. Plus, hacks like Redfield and Jared Kushner were right in the middle of all this every step of the way. Finally, Dr. Birx allowed herself to be used as the public face of this, as well...and look where she is now.

Federal officials said as recently as earlier in December that their goal was to have 20 million people get their first shot by the end of 2020. More than 14 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had been sent out across the United States, federal officials said Wednesday. But, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, just 2.8 million people have received their first dose, although that number may be somewhat low because of lags in reporting. States vary widely in how many of the doses they have received have been given out. South Dakota leads the country with more than 48% of its doses given, followed by West Virginia at 38%. By contrast, Kansas has given out less than 11%, and Georgia, less than 14%. Compounding the challenges, federal officials say they do not fully understand the cause of the delays. But state health officials and hospital leaders throughout the country pointed to several factors. States have held back doses to be given out to their nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities, an effort that is just gearing up and expected to take several months. Across the country, just 8% of the doses distributed for use in these facilities have been administered, with 2 million yet to be given. https://www.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-distribution-vaccine-taking-134801580.html

Also importantly, Caratini has a great partnership with Darvish and in the 98th percentile for framing. SD has undertaken a big change from Hedges/Mejia to Nola/Caratini, and it has made their offense even tougher...where there are no longer any easy sections of the lineup to negotiate. In the end, though, starting pitching is the one area that takes on outsized importance in the playoffs. If you look at variability in that rotation, Paddack with much less pressure on his shoulders could easily take another step forward. When you can roll out the best starting pitching prospect in Gore at #5, you’re in pretty good position. They have five starters along with Clevinger capable of finishing Top 5-10 in NL Cy Young balloting over the next 2-3 years. That’s not even considering Morejon and Weathers.

You mean 4, if you include Clevinger...

It’s risky for Hoyer in the sense that Cubs’ fans are likely going to get very impatient when they’re a Top 3-5 MLB franchise but are acting like the TB Rays. Especially whenever they look at their Marquee charges to bills or attempt to purchase anything in the neighborhood outside the ballpark. But the curious thing is the second biggest issue with Epstein for the latter half of his Cubs’ career (after bad free agent deals) was the almost complete inability to develop their own pitching. Davies will likely be gone by August. Why not address THAT? Because fixating on position players alone has proven to be a mistake in hindsight. If you trade Bryant/Baez/Contreras and then Kimbrel for half his salary...that leaves fans with just Rizzo and Hendricks to cheer for. Which won’t be easy for any Cubs’ fan who revisits the feeling around the franchise four or five years ago to digest. Arguably, Darvish, Contreras (two years left on contract), Hendricks and Bryant/Baez in walk years should be comparable pieces to what the Sox auctioned off in their rebuild. Early returns though, suggest the very worst possible timing in history to be doing such a thing.

"Payrolls are for 40-man rosters and include averages of multiyear contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman's compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships." How one calculates all of these extra factors is the key...usually, it’s at least $12-15 million higher. The owners, obviously, would prefer to use these numbers than just the salaries alone because it’s simply PR/perception...but you wouldn’t find a single baseball fan 15-20 years ago thinking about such things, other than do we have enough money to sign XYZ player or not.

It’s obviously not second degree murder, but how can someone who deliberately does such a thing not at least get 30-90 days in jail? And how long until other enflamed anti-vaxxers come up with similar copycat sabotage efforts?

Plus they need to start seriously considering the cost/benefit of a Giolito extension. Of course, if he repeats 2019/20, then you have to think Reinsdorf would definitely hesitate on giving out $100+ million extension to a pitcher with a TJ surgery is his past. The Danks extension would be used as the excuse as well. 4-6 year contracts for Sox pitchers...we’ll believe it when we see it with our own eyes. And you’d have to think Giolito was paying close attention to the Wheeler deal...even if those market conditions no longer apply.

Kopech + ? Vaughn isn’t going to the Cubs unless they are planning to part with Rizzo or the NL goes to the DH. Crochet has more value to the White Sox that he offers the Cubs. Which leaves the package short unless they’re willing to empty out the entire next tier of pitching prospects. Collins, Sheets and all our minor league outfielders have negligible value, but let’s just say Adolfo for argument’s sake. Leaving you Kopech, Stiever/Thompson/Kelley/Dahlquist (pick 3) and a lottery ticket in Adolfo. Hahn simply can’t afford to give up that much young pitching in one trade if he doesn’t have the budget to go shopping on the open market.

By the way, the Padres despite having the a bottom five MLB local media market...are projected to run out a $162 million payroll in another pandemic interrupted season if they don’t make any more major moves. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/ Just once, can the White Sox even make it to $140 in 2021 or 2022?

There really isn't one that doesn't include Kopech/Vaughn. Vaughn would be blocked by any future deal for Rizzo...same reason they (well, also depends on fate of the DH in NL.) Maybe he does make sense if they're completely cleaning house and Baez/Contreras/Bryant are all sent packing, but it's hard to imagine letting fan favorite Rizzo go, too? Madrigal would have been superfluous with Hoerner/Happ. They would basically have to completely empty the shelves of Tier B/C lower-level pitching prospects along with one headliner. Crochet, obviously, would have been interesting to them as well, especially if they can dump Kimbrel (but also as a potential starter.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/giroir-better-job-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-cnntv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/us/florida-coronavirus-vaccine-line/index.html The first time I can remember someone from the Trump administration admitting they need to be doing a better job...of course, they come from a military and not civilian background, so not 100% shocking. "Although I'm grateful to get the vaccine, I feel that there's got to be a better way to distribute this," he said afterward. "For people that really need it, elderly that might be disabled in some way, they can't endure this process, so there's got to be a better way to manage this." The long wait is a preview of what looks to be a tumultuous vaccine rollout and reflects the public's pent-up demand for vaccines as well as the logistical difficulty in administering them in an orderly way. The issue is partly a consequence of the lack of consistent federal guidance in administering vaccines, as President Donald Trump deferred that decision-making to the states. In turn, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis broke with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to focus first on vaccinating the elderly rather than essential workers, and he has encouraged each county health department to make its own decisions on administering the vaccines. But the Florida situation is a perfect example of what NOT to do, which is making the elderly camp out or wait in lines of up to 8-9 hours. Imagine if you live in the NE, Rust Belt, Rockies, etc. They could literally be killing off old people due to exposure...ironically, while waiting in lines to get a vaccine to save themselves, the fighting over the vaccine itself might turn out to be even more dangerous than the virus.

That said, he'd already appeared in the Futures Game and there was a TON of hype on him. It's really hard to compare him with a slew of Top 11-16 guys out of a very deep Padres system. Those guys are much more likely to end up like Basabe or Victor Diaz before all is said and done. Even the Top 75-100 guys like Mejia have a high bust rate, as Francisco was once considered the top catching prospect in all of baseball when he was in the Indians' system. Now he's a cross between Miguel Olivo and Zack Collins. I just think it's weird that some are defending the Cubs for going quantity over quality, when the evidence is overwhelming that going for 2-3 top prospects over a collection of 3-5 lower guys almost always tends to favor the former strategy over the latter one.

The media killed the Obama administration on the ObamaCare rollout, and (for the most part) rightfully so. It was already a disaster when you can keep your doctor turned out to be untrue. There’s been nothing in the entire pandemic response to cause one to believe the vaccine distribution will go smoothly. Whether we wait for weeks, like the botched Hurricane Katrina response...or days, or hours...to criticize, the reality is that some many false promises have been made that it was never going to live up to anything close to those earliest, most rose-colored glass projections by Admiral Giroir.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/yu-darvish-trade-grades-padres-get-another-a-and-another-ace-cubs-start-sell-off-with-low-marks/ https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/padres-are-serious-about-world-series-contention-three-reasons-why-thats-especially-notable-this-winter/

Retool.

If we didn't have journalists to put politicians' feet to the fire, what would do it, other than fear of defeat at the ballot box? The fact of the matter is that the initial rollout has been going much more slowly than predicted. Not unlike the original rollout of ObamaCare, perception becomes 90% of reality.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/louisiana-congressman-elect-dies-covid-025154687.html It finally happened, we lost a member of Congress, at least Congressman-Elect, a Republican out of Louisiana...of course, since it's not a "big name" anyone is familiar with, it will be barely a blip on the radar. But you can bet your bottom dollar that every single GOP member of the House and Senate will now be vaccinated if they haven't already.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/best-movies-of-2020-140015811.html Nomadland and Ma Rainey’s Bottom are both really excellent. First Cow, struggled with the first 45 minutes but really enjoyed the last hour or so as the story picks up steam. Have seen 10/25 so far.