caulfield12

Just weeks ago, we had a class Jeffersonian argument for deferring to the States, in terms of giving them the authority to decide on their own about lock-down/stay at home policies. Fine, it was his way of getting out of responsibility for shutting down those economies, but at least it fits with the GOP standard operating procedure ever since 1981 under Ronald Reagan. Now, he suddenly has the absolute authority to override any governor...well, just because he has the ability to punish or reward them with life-saving supplies as President and because Jared Kushner is now in charge of "our" national stockpile and which political hacks in GA, FL and TX receive it first? That's got to be the most ridiculous argument ever. I ALMOST hope it goes to the Supreme Court, and they override the governors and take responsibility for the loss of thousands of additional lives...because it would highlight the broken politicization of that body as well. (But then it would give Trump yet another OUT, the S.C. made the decision, I'm not responsible for that either, despite nominating the two most recent justices who tipped the balance even further.) Here's the thing...can anyone imagine Governor Mike Pence of Indiana deferring to Barack Obama in such a situation? Would any Republican governor during the Bill Clinton years have agreed to cede authority to the White House in such a situation? NO WAY IN H.E.L.L.!!!

We can’t really know because of the lack of testing. It needs to be at least 5% if not 10% of the entire country tested, at least for antibodies. It’s accurately reflecting the NYC/NJ peaks...but that’s so overweighted in the total test numbers we are getting a much less accurate picture of the other 48 states. Maybe its happening? But the argument that Arkansas is having great success because of a lack of population density/natural social distancing...is not possible to verify without surveillance testing, especially in poor/rural/outlying areas of the state without adequate health care coverage and/or access.

30% of Americans will still get Covid-19 even if they maintain current measures through August 1st...that’s a sobering thought. Just one model, but the opening up of the entire country on May 1st will be an unmitigated disaster and lead to a series of haphazard closures over the course of many months.

I joined 90 minutes in at 630 a.m. China time. Two points, the China travel ban was just 20% of travelers, ONLY tourist visas. 80% of Chinese passengers still got through. Secondly, even if the national stockpiles were completely barren (they weren’t) at the end of the Obama administration, the swine flu and ebola issues depleted part of it and it’s not exactly like the Tea Party Congresses were pinpointing that as a spending priority, in fact, quite the opposite. There were three plus years to fix it, but surely he never knew they existed before six weeks ago. Finally, the CDC is clearly the one who messed up the testing. How could there be an existing test sitting around ready for a virus no scientist had ever encountered before? Yes, six eastern states (NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, PA) and then Washington, Oregon and California.

Has Trump ever taken responsibility for anything in his entire life? Or not taken an opportunity to insult a female reporter? Well, it doesn’t matter what we wants with the two coastal coalitions already...and taking the position as president that you’re ready and willing to put American lives at risk because you’re desperate to save your presidency isn’y going to fly. Every single poll out the last two weeks has significant majorities against reopening. CNN, you shouldn’t need to have the chyron “president melts down” or “president tries to rewrite history.” That will just give him another talking point about the biased media. If voters aren’t smart enough to figure it out yet, well... Most prominent and successful people in the country/world will be on the committee to reopen the economy, lol. No state should think about reopening until the number of deaths per day is under 50. Realistically, it should be the entire country under 50. What is this about a propaganda video produced for the briefing? They created something that looks more like a campaign ad but will be charged to taxpayers? How could anyone be surprised?

Trump retweeted a threat (from GOP candidate) to fire Fauci after he said the US's slow response to COVID-19 has cost lives https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-retweeted-threat-fire-fauci-015357617.html Knew a showdown was coming sooner or later. Only question is what happens first, Dr. Fauci quits or Trump fires him. The problem is that bringing back 78 year old Dr. Fauci becomes the most popular thing that Biden could fight for...to restore good governance and scientific expertise. Trump is so enthralled with Dr. Birx’s “elegance” that he just might do it. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-13-20/index.html "He's been fretting about Fauci for a while," the source said of Trump's focus on the popular public health expert. The source summed up Trump's comments about the doctor as, "Why isn't Fauci saying nice things about me?" Trump is clearly trying to make Fauci uncomfortable, a tactic he uses with many of his top officials, the official said. Part of the problem, the source said, is that some in the president's circle have been criticizing Fauci, pain(t)ing the doctor as somehow aligned with the Clintons. Trump surrogates have been spreading negative stories about Fauci in recent days, attempting to portray the doctor as party responsible for the government's response to the virus, to deflect criticism from the president. White House officials have insisted Trump has confidence in Fauci. Last Friday, Trump defended his medical experts at the coronavirus task force press conference. But he stopped short of telling his allies to cease their political attacks on Fauci and the other top doctor on the task force, Deborah Birx.

https://www.quora.com/?digest_story=205392628&source=4 This is a report from a foreigner living in Kyoto on his perceptions for lower numbers there (under reporting and under-testing in order to preserve the Olympics and economy being the primary driver IMO.) But it’s a worthwhile read if you are interested in reading how other countries deal with Covid-19 from a cultural standpoint (almost no hugging or physical contact, compared to US and southern Europe, being just one example.) Ironically, Taiwan arguably has done the best, but has been blocked by the WHO from sharing that success with the rest of the world for political reasons. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/african-nations-us-blacks-mistreated-115543155.html African countries lambasting China over racism during Covid secondary outbreak, US State Dept. also issued a warning. Even the Chinese authorities have admitted 90% of cases are being brought back to mainland and Hong Kong by permanent residents and intl. students, not “foreigners.”

I don’t disagree, but it serves more of a psychological comforting purpose here. It makes people feel or perceive that things are safe, I guess. Like the placebo effect. The thing is that because of SARs and pollution/construction work ongoing over a decade, like subways...it’s pretty ubiquitous. Especially for Chinese women under 35-40. Also watching Basehor Linwood Church in KS on CNN defy the order with over 50-100 attending multiple Easter services and not wearing masks despite state Supreme Court ruling and Governor’s ruling about no gatherings over 10. I hope those people are all willing to rely on “faith healing” and not modern medicine when the time comes for being so stubborn. One would have thought enough people “learning lessons the hard way stories” could do the trick, but, no, of course not. Finally, a story for those inclined to dislike China...this is one of the primary reasons I will be leaving in five years to go back to the US for good. It’s not as bad here in Hubei, but it’s an uglier aspect of a homogeneous culture. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/china/africans-guangzhou-china-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

With Smithfield plant shutdown in South Dakota and the Iowa and PA closures, significant percentages of nation’s meat (at least pork) supply under threat now. Here in Wuhan, people will be required to wear masks while out in public through at least June, if not into July. That’s a span of roughly 8-9 total months of impact. Lots of concern lingering about asymptomatic cases. We’re still at at least two weeks away from the very first students (just high school seniors who have national exams rescheduled back into July) returning on the 27th-29th of April, with others in May (6th and 9th grade national exams in late June) and some elementaries and Kindergartens like my son’s out for the entire semester. Which is one positive about starting school at age 3 here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Hasn’t been updated for roughly six hours, fwiw...Easter?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-governor-vows-issue-executive-185600728.html And thus, it begins. We can start tracking the anticipated uptick in Texas and compare rates to the rest of the states. Next up, Florida. Waiting for the excuse November 4th that he accidentally wiped out 10% of reliable voters over age 60. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-neighbour-reports-commuting-nhs-worker-180537924.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html Now it all makes sense. The most authoritative account so far of what went wrong dots all the i’s and crosses all the t’s. Makes the response to the Navarro warning all the more pathetic, because not only did he know about it, Trump was pissed it was so alarmist and had been put down on paper to create a trail. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/social-distancing-us-economy-covid-politics/index.html A CNN poll last week showed most want to hold the line. Fully 80% fear the worst of the outbreak lies ahead; 60% express discomfort with resuming regular routines if current White House guidelines expire on April 30. Yet underlying those figures lies a sharp partisan divide. More than twice as many Republicans (53%) say they could comfortably resume their regular routines as Democrats (23%). Republican impatience, amplified by conservative media outlets, creates a feedback loop inhibiting the consistent national response the White House coronavirus task force calls necessary to roll back the threat. GOP elected officials, business executives and religious figures eager for church services again cast coronavirus restrictions as unnecessarily "draconian," as Attorney General William Barr put it last week.

Look at the Haiti hurricane. It was something of a recent tradition for presidents of the past to bring back former leaders, like Bush and Clinton in that situation. Jimmy Carter, for example, is the president that almost every American can respect equally for all his worldwide humanitarian contributions since 1980. But our president would prefer to ask Ivanka and Jared Kushner than those three or Obama. Even if it’s not a president of the opposing party. Of course, that leaves the Bush family, another open political wound. Or McCain and Romney, more grudges that are impossible to heal for the Republican Party itself until November 4th at the earliest. We’re kind of stuck with the likes of Sanders, Biden and Trump (suspended animation)...waiting for that next generation of leaders to carry the torch. It’s not inconceivable to imagine a future far right Trump wing, everyone in the middle (30-40%) and then what’s left of the progressive movement (AOC) splitting the country into three defined factions. And maybe I’m completely off...and the national dissatisfaction over this pandemic response will have the same practical effect of burying the Bush Era of compassionate conservatism mixed with the military industrial complex into another dustbin of history. But that would be too easy.

If we go along with the assumptions many are currently making about China....that 42,000 died here instead of 3300ish, then you would have roughly 12x the rate of 3%, which would be 36%. That’s preposterous, right? So then it has to be the lack of testing...keeping in mind many people in countries around the world are not being credited as Covid-19 deaths. Even Dr. Birx is arguing the US numbers are underestimating it. It’s just hard to believe it’s any lower than 2-3% looking at those numbers in Europe. I guess there really needs to be two numbers. Those who actually get sick, test positive and ultimately recover...versus the hundred thousands who recover on their own and/or are asymptomatic. What is the ICU admittance rate for the seasonal flu? For COVID-19, it has pretty consistently been running at 12-20% around the entire world. Estimates suggest that up to 10% of patients (already) hospitalized with influenza will be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). But more than half (51%) of patients diagnosed with either influenza A (higher rate of admission) or B who were admitted to the hospital also had cardiovascular disease. It’s almost impossible to sort out and isolate because of the preexisting conditions and co-morbidities. That’s not even considering the permanent lung damage many are being left with...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3050327/coronavirus-still-stumps-experts-when-human-carrier-turns-infectious Article discussing possibility of asymptomatic transmission on February 12th. Find it pretty disconcerting that the head of HHS (compared to GA governor) would be almost two full weeks behind the mainstream press...or even this thread if we went back to February and looked for the first discussions about it. But that’s one of the biggest questions for WHO and China. Why were they STILL reporting in mid January that there was no person-to-person transmission? Trying to prevent fear or panic is understandable...but not when you are lying and then still send out 5 million people across China (Chinese New Year) and the world on trains, planes and buses. Most likely, local authorities were attempting to bury the story as long as possible...but then every epidemiologist would have to know the rate of spread/transmission wouldn’t allow for any other rational explanation known to modern science. Seems that bipartisan meetings are going to be delayed until 2021 (shocking, right?) https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/politics/new-york-times-coronavirus-trump-administration/index.html According to the report, Dr. Robert Kadlec, the top disaster response official at the Department of Health and Human Services, convened the White House coronavirus task force on February 21. During his meeting, the group conducted a mock-up exercise of the pandemic. It predicted 110 million infections, 7.7 million hospitalizations and 586,000 deaths. As a result, the group "concluded they would soon need to move toward aggressive social distancing, even at the risk of severe disruption to the nation's economy and the daily lives of millions of Americans." However, it would take more than three weeks for Trump to enact social distancing guidelines on March 16. Two days after that meeting Kadlec learned of human-to-human transmission from asymptomatic individuals, the Times report states. But instead of immediately implementing mitigation steps, the President's focus turned to messaging. .

https://www.yahoo.com/news/keep-workers-lay-them-off-141821376.html But some of the workers have said they would rather stay on unemployment or be laid off (because of the extra $600/week.) “If you don’t feel comfortable leaving your house in a pandemic, I am not going to push you. That’s not fair,” Blondy said. “But I might not have work for you in the future.” She said she wished the unemployment system were clearer about how to handle situations like these. Can employees refuse work? Does she have to challenge their unemployment claim — something she does not want to do? Can it be considered fraud if she doesn’t? A spokeswoman for the Department of Labor said Wednesday that states could interpret their own laws and that employers were not responsible for challenging unemployment claims. But in general, “individuals that quit without good cause or refuse suitable offers of employment are not eligible for benefits.”

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/11/andrew-yang-joe-biden-trump-attack-ad-gary-locke-ebof-bts-vpx.cnn Earlier in this thread, there was a worthwhile discussion of trying to take the high road, not politicizing things...but ads like this come directly out of the 1988 playbook. It’s beneath the office of the Presidency to resort to transforming an Asian-American into a nefarious “foreign agent.” While this type of crap happened after Pearl Harbor (concentration camps like Manzanar) ...that was almost 80 years ago now. There’s simply no excuse for it today. Worst of all, it’s simply another passing along of the buck in an interminable series of them, an attempted distraction, and shirking of any responsibility for the Federal government’s heretofore pathetic response to Covid-19.

That’s because Imperial and everyone else is working off 3-5 different models depending on the amount of mitigation/suppression. That was their worst case scenario for the UK, and it made the headlines because of the eye popping numbers, but they had other models being published looking at a full range of scenarios. Just like we originally had 1.6-2.2 million predicted deaths with no social distancing (see UK original response), then revised down to 100-240,000k, then 86k and finally now into the low 60’s. Each day keeps changing and updating the various scenarios. IHME will start putting out forecasts next week for what happens in the case of various openings of the country beginning in May. The most important point is that things will look exactly like they do this Friday through Monday (peak deaths) sometime in July if they reopen May 1st. Trump administration shuttered pandemic monitoring program, then scrambled to extend it https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/politics/trump-usaid-prevent-program-coronavirus/index.html

For other large states – such as Florida and Texas – the worst is expected to come later. on April 27 and 28 respectively. Some context: While it’s unclear when exactly the state (NY) expects to return to normal, lifting social distancing measures too soon – before the peak, for example – could reignite transmission of the virus and cost lives. The current version of the IHME model says it expects social distancing until the end of May, and assumes that states will enact other measures – such as mass screening and contact tracing – that will prevent any resurgence of the virus. The institute previously told CNN that the projections assumed social distancing until August, as the model’s FAQ had stated in now-deleted language. But on Thursday, the institute’s director, Chris Murray, said that was not actually the case – despite what a professor behind the model and an institute spokesperson had both said earlier. cnn.com

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-10/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order-social-distancing-summer#nt=liF1promoSmall-7030col2-7030col1-main LA County extends social distancing/stay at home until May 15th. Los Angeles County health officials warned Friday that the region needs to significantly increase social distancing to slow the spread of coronavirus and that stay-at-home restrictions could remain into the summer. Even with the dramatic social distancing the county is now seeing, officials forecast that up to 30% of residents could be infected by mid-summer without more behavioral changes, such as reducing shopping trips. As a result, Los Angeles County is extending the stay-at-home order for California’s most populous county through at least May 15. Officials could not provide a definitive answer as to when the stay-at-home order will ease.

Chris Murray from UWash (the national model Trump admin has been relying on) just stated that if the social distancing doesn’t go at least through the end of May/early June...the peak numbers we are experiencing these four days will return again with a vengeance in July. CA, FL, TX, PA still to come...Detroit is nearing, along with New Orleans and Chicago, but then you have the DC area, Baltimore, Houston, Philly, etc. His model has blipped back up about 1,000 in the last 24-36 hours to 61500. Of course, that model is also based on the expectation of continued stay at home for the next two months. Going from 200-240,000 to 100k to 60k in the span of a week is now turning into a trap. Because it means that putting everyone back to work again May 1st makes it patently obvious we’ve made the decision to kill another 40,000-80,000 Americans in order for Trump to get his way with the economy...and he’s not going to be able to force every individual state or governor to relax their rules without creating one Constitutional showdown after another. I can just see the Fox headlines now. “Those scaredy-cat Dem governors and mayors don’t love their country. They’d all rather we don’t go back to work because they want to destroy the economy and prevent President Trump from being re-elected. The cure is worse than the illness itself blah blah blah.” US now only 183 deaths behind Italy...at least we’re not passing them on “Resurrection Sunday,” both those will be the headlines for every Easter newspaper carrying over from Saturday’s news.

Was that a tweet or direct quote? Trying to figure out if the TOO/TO grammatical error was intentional assumption or interpretation...of how Trump makes so many mistakes, because that makes the quote even rougher in conjunction with the 5th grade science take. Things are really going to get testy well before we even get to May 1st... LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said the state will require people who participate in mass gatherings this weekend to quarantine for 14 days. In his Friday press briefing, Beshear said the state will record the license plates of any people at a mass gathering, including in-person church services this weekend, and give the information to local health departments, who will order people to quarantine for 14 days. https://www.whas11.com/article/news/local/kentucky-mass-gathering-quarantine-in-person-church-service/417-378a3d5e-849b-4b0a-8fb7-aee72ceeb60a

Trace/Track/Target Test Treat Three T’s approach to opening up the economy seems to be taking hold. Tracing required hundreds of thousands doing that super-challenging work here in one concentrated population center, Hubei Province. In the US, this is going to require a nationalized approach from severely underfunded public health departments, one of the weakest areas of current health care networks due to a series of cutbacks over the course of many years...but those beleaguered civil servants and lots and lots of volunteers with at least some basic training.

The worst case scenario is we just gifted GM $14,000 per unit for about 30,000 new ventilators that will go into the Federal stockpile. Let’s hope they don’t have to use most of them when they’re delivered in June and late summer. There’s just no reason not to throw the money we need to into fixing these testing problems...because you have a current scenario where at least 60% of America doesn’t feel confident enough to go back to work. It would cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions...if they rush back and then experience second and third wave outbreaks where majorities of the workforce have to go back home.

That middle paragraph is unlikely to happen if Trump retains office...in fact, quite the opposite. As long as the primary system appeals to or attracts only the most committed party members on both sides, you’re going to see extremism prevail. Look at AOC knocking out Crowley with something like 7,000 votes. The middle has to become more active, and they need to change their messaging to a more hopeful/aspirational tone in order to motivate people to get involved. No more of the same establishment, status quo, neo-liberal bromides. You can be pragmatic and realistic while developing new ideas. Look at Yang’s campaign, for example. Even if Biden wins, there’s going to be a huge battle over the future direction of the WHO...either you reform it, or start an altogether different entity. Even then, let’s say you exclude Russia, Iran and China but somehow manage to get India, Mexico, Brazil, Europe, Australia, Japan and South Korea mostly on board...what does that actually accomplish? What about the Middle East and Africa? We talk about political polarization in the US, but Europe is going to have to make a choice at some point between an American and Chinese-led version of the future in terms of technology, the use of surveillance, press and internet freedoms, shared scientific research and a whole range of things that are unresolved. Who currently possesses the credibility to get that done and bring the entire world together in one common cause? Europe is weakened...the Chinese economy is in shambles and America has to sort its own problems out first.