caulfield12

https://www.lonestarball.com/2019/5/13/18617782/nomar-mazara-has-been-better-than-you-think Where is Mazara falling short? Batting average on balls in play. Mazara has a BABIP of .240 this season — well below his career .292 mark, and 151st out of 174 qualifying hitters per Fangraphs. He had a .298 BABIP in 2018, .293 in 2017, and .299 in 2016. Hitting the ball harder, and having a higher line drive rate, generally results in a player having a higher BABIP, not a lower one. A very simplistic view is that Mazara is having bad luck on balls in play. And this is supported by the Statcast data. Mazara’s xBA (expected batting average) this year is .288. His actual batting average is .227. Out of the 334 players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are only 12 with a bigger negative spread. Statcast sees Mazara as having contact that would be expected to generate a .326 BABIP, not the .240 BABIP he actually has. What does all this mean? Well, if Mazara actually had a .361 wOBA this year, he’d have a 120 wRC+. If he had the extra 61 points in batting average Statcast suggests he should have, and all those extra points came from singles, he’d be slashing .288/.348/.483, and we’d all be encouraged about the progress he’s made this season. The counter to that, of course, is that Mazara is slow, he gets shifted against, he’s a pull hitter, and so he’s going to underperform his xwOBA. And that’s reasonable...but should he really be expected to underperform it by that much? Joey Gallo, an even more extreme pull hitter who gets shifted on more than Mazara, is underperforming his xwOBA by 21 points. If Mazara were just underperforming by 21 points, he’s at a .340 wOBA, which would be around a 107 wRC+, which would still be a rate where Mazara is performing at an acceptable level.

https://sports.yahoo.com/hot-stove-tracker-angels-trade-for-orioles-pitcher-dylan-bundy-211008577.html Weird....the header for the link was Dylan Bundy, the top places article was on the White Sox/EE and nobody paid attention to that contradiction in consecutive paragraphs.

T.Walker as a swing guy to pair with Rodon as long as the money’s in the $4-6 million range with mutual option for next year would be interesting. That way, they could also part ways with Rodon if he doesn’t look the same and even more insurance for the young starters. Alex Wood will get more, arguably...whichever one looks like the best value and is suited for pen work or spot starting.

Included in its own thread since he was one of the most frequently discussed options at SoxTalk for RF. Easy to miss over Christmas unless you’re in China for XMas with the day off and wife at work and son at school, haha.

A week after making a big splash by signing Madison Bumgarner, the Arizona Diamondbacks made another power move, adding slugger Kole Calhoun. Per multiple reports, the deal is for two years and $16 million with a third-year club option: Calhoun has spent his entire seven-year major league career with the Los Angeles Angels, but will switch leagues and cross the state border and head to Phoenix where he will join a team that is aggressively looking to contend with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The 32-year-old hit .232 with 33 home runs in 152 games last season with the Angels. Calhoun played collegiately at Arizona State and will return to familiar confines. By signing Bumgarner and Calhoun, who are both on the south side of 30, the Diamondbacks feel they are ready to push their chips in to contend now — mixing established veterans with a young squad. Maybe they will be the team in 2020 to finally give the Dodgers a run for NL West supremacy. yahoosports.com Passan twitter feed Outfielder Kole Calhoun and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a two-year, $16 million deal, sources tell ESPN. The contract includes a third-year club option for $9 million. @jonmorosi, @Joelsherman1, @nickpiecoro and @Feinsand were among those with details on it

Hudson and Harris are still going to be paid well. Stammen is a good bounceback candidate....really solid but overused in first half, faded down the stretch.

This year is a contention one if everything goes right (or goes wrong for the Twins and Indians.) They can’t put all their chips in quite yet though...if you rush too much, you end up with contracts you didn’t even need if you would have been a bit more patient. Not signing Machado worked out fine, it remains to be seen between Keuchel, Wheeler, Bumgarner and Ryu. Micker Adolfo, for example, might be the most talented prospect after Robert, but has never been able to stay healthy. Rutherford could be part of a platoon. The point is that if you keep spending $10-15 million on every single possible hole, there won’t be as much flexibility remaining next offseason or with signing our own homegrown players to extensions. EE over Collins is one thing...for a year or two. A four year contract for a defensively limited corner outfielder or DH is another matter altogether. That’s why the market for Ozuna, Castellanos and even Puig is taking so long to develop.

Probably something to do with the Ja Morant dunk attempt on Love...NCAA or NBA, etc. Not about a Sox signing.

Joe Crede as well...but not an FA. A-Rod’s huge deal, almost twenty year ago now. Not sure who represented Tanaka and Astoria Hunter, to name a few more.

Which is the exact same reason they’re trying to block the a Dodgers from getting Lindor...using their minor league riches. Then, Tatis would shift to 2B or CF, depending on whether they want him or Profar at second. CF would be safer, relatively...and would give him a chance to use his arm more than second. But it might also cause him to lose focus, not being as involved in everything as he was last year at SS. Machado, Lindor and Tatis from left to right would be crazy, though. Just don’t think the Padres are willing to part with Gore. That’s the sticking point. Not even for two full years of Lindor.

So the Rangers made discount moves when they brought in Minor and Lynn. And they saved a ton of money, which they then reallocated on their roster. Yet they were worth 10.7 fWAR last year. If you overpay through FA for every position on the field, a mid market team will invariably run into payroll constraints. Or you can simply argue they never should have committed to Abreu past 2020. They arguably overpaid Abreu...you can argue that as well. But you have to take into consideration the consequences of overpaying Castellanos and forcing him into RF instead of DH or 1B. What happens when you need that money for starting pitching, relievers or extending your own young players like Robert, Moncada and Madrigal? Of they don’t get Robert or Moncada to sign extensions, we can all argue that giving Abreu three years was a huge mistake if the wheels come off his offensive performance in 2021 or 22. Heck, even next year, although nobody is arguing Vaughn is ready for the big leagues this year, not yet.

And Paddack as well.

But this is also likely peak Castellanos. If they hadn’t already blocked DH with Abreu in 2021-22, many would agree with you. Betts, Springer and even Pederson will be more expensive next year, and our young RF prospects are far from a certainty to make an impact. Adolfo and Rutherford are probably the two most promising at this point.

The problem is that Bauer, Stroman, Ray and Paxton are the four biggest names next year. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of high-end pitching, although all of them have demonstrated flashes of greatness in recent years, Bauer in particular. That said, everyone in baseball is aware of his eccentric, to put it nicely, personality. On the plus side, if Francona can’t handle you...it depresses your asking price considerably. But all of these guys are just as risky, if not more so, than Zack Wheeler.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28366269/mets-reliever-dellin-betances-agree-one-year-deal One year, $10.5 million for Betances to Mets Wouldn’t have made sense to Sox without a club or incentives based option for 2021. Apparently he preferred to stay in NYC and keep his options open for the following season if he recaptures his form.

Bob was also spotted in the entourage of Social Influencers in Saudi Arabia... In all seriousness, shocked that Lillian isn’t backing a left handed hitter. McCann doesn’t have to traded unless we get the exact piece we want (bullpen or young RH outfielder) we want. It’s that simple. We don’t have to give up on Collins, either. Look how long it took before Tyler Flowers became a legit big leaguer with the Braves. Catchers usually mature in their late 20s as capable receivers and game callers. It’s not an overnight process. Better to hold onto our embarrassment of riches and force another team to make an overpay if one of their top guys go down.

I suppose one could draw comparisons between Rust Belt/Heartland economies and California/Silicon Valley/Seattle. Texas is more or less the anomaly in the middle...and the Astros have never been a “Western” team, per se. Other than the Cubs, Cardinals (still more like a mid-market due to t.v. contract) and Tigers under Ilitch, none of those teams in flyover territory operate or have succeeded like large market teams. Yet the Rockies (cutting back), DBacks, Padres, Mariners, Giants and Angels all are running bigger budgets than the majority of Central teams.

Sure, but every team in baseball does it. He still has to work on K rate, swinging at off speed pitches out of zone and improving walk rate. He went through three levels last year. It’s not like they had him parked at AA or AAA for for a full season delaying his major league debut. Just the fact a player went through three teams on one minor league season of 140ish games invalidates any possible argument. And Leury arguably was better than replacement level. It wouldn’t be shocking for a Robert to have an OPS in the mid to low 700s at all.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/24/us/jeremy-roenick-suspension-spt-trnd/index.html Jeremy Roenick makes front page of CNN, probably not how he imagined it happening...joking about threesome with Kathryn Tappen

???

Yep, love that show. One of the better plot twists for a series finale in a long time. Seasons 2/3 weren’t as good, but really liked tone and pace of last 3-4 episodes. Will have to rewatch it, all four seasons together, maybe 2-3 years from now.

But isn't Nick Castellanos just a better version of Melky Cabrera from 5 years ago...certainly not an "elite" hitter? And even more troubling, you're giving away so much defensively with both him and Jimenez in the same outfield. At least we're not Twins' fans? Wouldn't that be even more infuriating, they've seemingly given up making more than incremental improvements as they've lost 17 consecutive playoff games and fans don't believe they can ever get past the Yankees or the Astros. Other than Harper, Machado, Strasburg, Cole and Rendon...there weren't these types of players on the market the last two off-seasons. Would we be better off today with either Harper or Machado? Maybe that means Robert, Moncada or Giolito can't be retained. There's always a tradeoff. Opportunity cost.

Definitely not Castellanos. But someone like EE or Puig, if their price comes down to the $8-10 million range. Dickerson...if they aren't sure on Collins, or even Brett Gardner. There are options for just 2020 that make this a much better offense without doing much of anything beyond stunting Zack's offensive development at the major league level. If we're training him to be the back-up to Grandal for the contention window, he needs to be playing the field (also 1B to add versatility) nearly every day in Charlotte.

Good to know. I pretty much ignored the last 6 weeks of White Sox baseball. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=186069 He also played SS in community college and U-Mass Lowell (123 more games of ONLY shortstop.) No need for another utility infielder, or having Madrigal try to play SS at the big league level.

You just hit on yet another concern here...if they change the baseballs again, we're MUCH better off relying on the proven power of an Encarnacion over the more suspect power increase from Castellanos, if you look at his historical numbers. If you look closely into launch angle and flight path, he has always been more of a doubles/gap hitter than a 30+ homer guy.