caulfield12

Well, that would push out Rizzo, Baez and Contreras, for one thing. And you’d think they need one smaller deal for Hendricks, because who knows what they get from Darvish and Lester/Q are likely on the way out eventually. They really are going to have a tough choice between Baez and Bryant...they can’t afford all three. It’s all going to depend on Bryant returning to MVP form, and we know how well these 8-10 year deals typically work out when the majority of those seasons are in a player’s thirties.

LBJ (although it sounds more like a Hawkism) said, ‘Sometimes you just have to hunker down like a jackass in a hailstorm and just take it.” So that’s where we are.

Adolfo is really going to have to rake in a Jimenez way to justify that ranking...especially since he is likely to DH for most of the first half. His viability to play RF is almost completely dependent on his arm/elbow. Dunning’s going to be in that same “prove it” situation, along with Collins/Rutherford/Burdi/Hansen/Sheets.

Hopefully it doesn’t involve more fines from the FCC.

It’s probably not helping that lots of season ticket holders have lost 15-25% of their net worth in the last month. But the front office put themselves front and center...failing now is close to unacceptable. That will leave Opening Day, the Jimenez (and Cease) debuts and the #3 draft pick announcement as the only reasons to get excited. Unless Abreu or some of the veterans go on huge tears and can attract considerable trade interest in June/July. Hope they signed that television contract on the dotted line before economic conditions deteriorate further...it’s going to be a pretty bumpy ride if we’re forced to suffer through another year of waiting on FA’s to choose the Sox.

Don’t the White Sox realize Machado beating James Shields up is pretty much non-indicative of anything...?

It doesn't quite have a final 15 minutes to fit the rest of the film, but still one of the ten best watches of the year, overall. And talk about a relatively low budget.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-cubs-could-still-play-194921605.html?bcmt=1 Pretty shocking that well over 100 comments in, not a single Cubs' fan wants to pay Harper what Boras is asking.

So then you're agreeing he had an "early" prime, or you agree that those numbers are largely irrelevant for corner outfielders who accrue most of their value defensively, especially RFers? And your argument is that we can no longer assume a player's prime should extend to his age 27~29 seasons? Or just not to Heyward...so what does that tell us about Bryant' s value? Shouldn't a player who gets most of his value offensively be more liable to fade defensively if he has peaked early from a physical standpoint? If Heyward's floor is 1 as a defender, what's Harper's peak at 1B or DH? And how could that possibly be worth $300+ million? At any rate, it's a bifurcated argument. Point 1 was whether Heyward ever had a prime. Point 2 was the idea that it was for "over the hill" contracts, which FWD suggested. So my response was that Heyward at age 29 should still be in his prime. Athletically, that's true. From an offensive standpoint, it's one of the biggest mysteries in the game. The odds aren't great of recapturing his previous form, but the physical tools are still there after these past three years. It would seem crazy to declare a hitter over the hill at 26, 27 or 28, because something else is going on beyond the normal aging curve.

So we should now expect players to peak at age 25 and 26, and decline at 27, 28 and 29? Got it!! The original argument was that he didn't even have a prime. Historically, every baseball expert has "EXPECTED/PREDICTED" ages 27-28-29 to be the three prime years (on average) for the majority of MLB players. Do you agree with that? YES/NO? (Answer one.) Obviously, it's going to retroactively seem (looking back) that he peaked at age 25 or 26 since his game has been off for the last 3 years (comparatively)...but a GM who had previously won 3 World Series titles (well, 2.5 since almost all of the players were put there by Epstein) and the GM of the Cardinals were dumb to value Heyward highly? If we look at Eaton, we would argue that he peaked at age 28, if we want to make a comparison. Or Alex Gordon, at age 30. So 29 certainly fits within that range.

What would be a team that this applies to, I can't really think of one off the top of my head...? (TEAL) Of course, when we DO produce a good defensive outfielder (Engel), he just so happens to be one of the very worst hitters in this particular generation (post-PEDs) of baseball players.

Now you're COMPLETELY changing the argument. You argued that defensive "overemphasis" in the WAR numbers overvalues corner outfielders. Somehow, the Cubs managed to win a World Series with Heyward, and the Royals with Gordon. Lots of very smart (arguably better at their jobs than Hahn) GM's pursued both in Free Agency. Wait, Rick Hahn was one of those guys chasing after Alex Gordon, wasn't he? By the TaylorStSox Theory of Corner Outfield WAR, the White Sox are sitting on top of the biggest prospect goldmine in the history of the game. All we have to do is simply convince the rest of MLB to overvalue Luis Gonzalez, Steele Walker and Chase Rutherford...because they each can play CF or a corner with "plus" level defense, making them all possible "Eaton/Heyward/Gordon Lites" and worth bundles to other teams. I'll reserve lumping Adolfo (because his defense is mostly related to his arm/elbow, could end up at DH/1B), Basabe (because there are too many question marks about his OBP/offensive game still)...but you could certainly ARGUE for adding Basabe to the "Eaton Lite" group as well. And that doesn't even count Jimenez and Robert (who will be traded over Hahn's dead body). With four and possibly five "overvalued" minor league outfielders...the White Sox should be set up to be competitive for at least a decade with all the talent they're likely to get back on the trade market, right? If we're just going to throw out totally subjective arguments (corner outfield fWAR/bWAR based more on defense than offense) without providing any type of analysis/rebuttal that's not an emotional/subjective/qualitative one, then you're going to have to eat this one. Or we can just stop arguing about WAR and go back to Greg's preferred method of analyzing players that we've used for over a century.

Are you really unable to remember the recent past? Eaton played RF for the WHITE SOX the season preceding the trade when he built up huge fWAR and bWAR numbers. A lot of it was attributable to his RF assist totals...please check the numbers, he never graded out well in CF. In fact, it was his outfield assist numbers that largely elevated his defensive rating, just like the year that Avi graded out passably in RF. If Adam Eaton didn’t put up a huge (and healthy) WAR numbers playing RIGHT FIELD (aka a corner outfield position) for the White Sox, he wouldn’t have been perceived as so valuable to Rizzo. But apparently we should now completely discount those WAR numbers because of players like Heyward, Eaton and Alex Gordon. By the way, it wasn’t only the Cubs who saw evidence of value there...the Cardinals offered Heyward a similar contract.

Then we got extremely fortunate the Nats bought into the “BS” about Adam Eaton. Or maybe not...seeing how bad Giolito has turned out so far.

Lowrie seems like one of those guys who would pick his season with the White Sox to pull a Keppinger or Bonifacio. He’s quietly been super productive, but how long can that last? Maybe we need a new thread, moves the Sox might make which would theoretically force us to throw in the towel on our fandom...

They can’t afford to sell low on Contreras, and they need him to return to form (desperately so) the next 3 seasons. That would be the deal breaker. If it was Happ, Russell and one outfielder, it would make more sense. But Russell is poison, now.

4.7, 1.9, 5.3, 3.1, 4.7, 5.6 If we got that “prime” out of Moncada, the entire board would be doing cartwheels. That was his age 21-26 seasons. That’s over 25 fWAR. I’m not sure all the White Sox position prospects from 2009-2018 have accomplished that collectively, if you take out Alexei and Abreu (since they never played in our minor league system).

How is Heyward past his prime? He’s 29 freaking years old. It’s not physical, it’s completely psychological with him. Carl Crawford was 30 when he was traded to the Dodgers. That’s the better example, but there aren’t many that fit. Prince Fielder was 29 when he was traded to the Rangers by DET.

If you can think of more moves where around $25 million or more in subsidies went the other way along with a contract they were desperate to move, have at it. Thome was injured in 2005, and they basically had to move him to open up 1B for Ryan Howard. It’s obviously not exactly the same as Heyward, but then nothing will be. Dodgers absorbing huge money from the Red Sox for Crawford or the Fielder/Kinsler deals are closer.

Happ and Almora OR Schwarber with Heyward starts to make it a lot more interesting. The problem is what are rebuilding teams like the Giants going to do with arb-eligible players...or nearly so? From a financial standpoint, the Cubs might be better off retaining Happ as Zobrist’s replacement and dealing Schwarber, whose defensive improvement would be sorely tested in SF. Of course, it would all be predicated on Harper then signing with the Cubs.

One that comes to mind immediately is Fielder to the Rangers for Kinsler, Tiger threw in $30 million. Thome and money to the White Sox for Rowand. Wasn’t it the Indians who took Bourn and Swisher, trade with Indians for Chris Johnson? But that was more a trade of dead contracts, rather than absorbing one huge one. Some other names that come to mind after some research: Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, Jr., Yasmany Tomas, James Shields for Tatis, Jr., Pablo Sandoval, Hector Olivera, Jose Reyes’ original deal with Marlins in 2012 (flipped twice), Melvin Upton, Jr. to the Padres from ATL, Carl Crawford from BOS to LAD...then, of course, you have the first A-Rod megadeal with the Rangers to NYY. Of course, the original Rodriguez deal actually worked out pretty well, performance-wise.

Reds really needed to shore up fan interest by doing SOMETHING. Sox basically in the same situation, trying to jumpstart things by one year and build some excitement...just like the Mariners did adding Cano and Cruz, but without enough pitching or general prospect depth behind it in SEA. Of course, it didn’t help that Felix went south simultaneously. At one point, he looked like a sure-fire HoFer.

This is exactly what the Dodgers are doing with Bailey...but the White Sox wouldn’t cut Heyward. But who else would you expect with Happ? Almora, Jr., and Schwarber, too? Because you know that trade means Harper to the Cubs. They might give you 2 of those 3, along with Heyward. Probably they’d hold onto Almora to play CF. The Sox wouldn’t take Russell, that’s the big problem.

The poor Mariners are dead and buried.

Thought Peavy was back for a second until noticing the author’s name...unless we believe he pretty much is determined not to sign with the Phillies. Or that’s simply a ploy to get the Phils or other teams to offer even more.