caulfield12

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/harvard-researchers-say-some-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022 Uh-oh. Unbelievable but not impossible. The Greg Nightmare Scenario. WWE wrestlers are now being classified as essential workers? Okay, sure...but kudos to NY Gov. Cuomo for not engaging in heated rhetoric. Simply stated he won’t follow any order if he believes residents are in danger and would likely end up in the Supreme Court. Alexander Hamilton’s original vision of concentrated Federal powers has never been more relevant. At least Liz Cheney gets it! 20 minutes into the press briefing already and nothing about what we’re going to do to get through this. January 22nd-24th Trump twitter feed pretty much negates everything said so far about WHO. That said, many organizations (including media outlets) declared this a pandemic at least 7-10 days before the WHO did.

Just wait until we report UNE claims again later this week and the Dow jumps another 1000 points...seems to be a complete disconnect here between the lives of everyday Americans and small/medium-sized businesses. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/?tid=pm_pop&itid=pm_pop Well, there’s still no proof about the origin...but this is yet another indication of a widening chasm between the two countries is the new normal. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/14/its-not-just-trump-whos-angry-china/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wv-china-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wv-china-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans It’s Not Just Trump Who is Angry at China

Starting to see signs. Gov. Baker joining the NE states coalition. Hogan in MD and DeWine in Ohio have been pretty independent, all things considered. Will probably see MD and VA and possibly NC working together at some point. The big test cases are going to be those mass population states like TX, FL and GA. Louisiana and NM will block off highways so Texans can’t leave? There’s also that huge block of states across the south from SC to Texas and straight north to Missouri and Iowa with GOP governors...are they really going to dare to open up together as an organized “counter” coalition in two weeks?

Noted SD biochemist Kristi Noem is conducting an experimental trial on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine’s ability to PREVENT Covid-19. Meanwhile, the Smithfield pork processing plant is evolving into the biggest emerging cluster in the entire country, but no stay-at-home orders as of yet, along with six other states. WTH? ECMO machines join the spotlight after saving life of former Northwestern Rose Bowler turned doctor...the drug he was taking to recover is called tocilizumab (brand name Actemra). https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/coworkers-save-coronavirus-doctor https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/evergreenhealth-doctor-opens-up-about-brush-with-death-recovery-after-covid-19/ The goal of using ECMO, which requires two nurses for each patient, was to “buy time,” Youssef said. The doctors knew that there was another process “destroying his lungs, destroying his heart, destroying his kidneys.” Early research from China, where the novel coronavirus first struck, gave them some ideas. Researchers abroad believed that patients with COVID-19 who were very ill, like Padgett, might have features of a “cytokine storm,” in which the body ramps up production of inflammatory cytokine proteins.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/trump-coronavirus-reopening-council-184927 Reopening Council, who nobody really even knows more than a handful of names (apparently not Ivanka or Jared)...to issue some type of guidelines on reopening the country this week. Good luck with that one. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america You can use this tool to go through daily projections on everything associated with Covid-19. June 5th is the first day of under 60 deaths nationally, according to these most recent projections. Back up to 68,841 total deaths. Jumped up about 8150 since last week.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-coronavirus-task-force-amassed-power-it-boosted-industry-n1180786 Trying to decide if this is actually worse than the lengthy NYT article over the weekend. Not sure what else can go wrong for this new group, facing a fusillade of reporters’ questions Tuesday afternoon. What else can go awry? Let’s see if we can make it through these next 24 hours before comparisons of President Truman challenging a music critic that harangued his daughter’s singing performance start popping up.

And THIS is why we are not attempting “herd immunity” One third of National Health Service staff and other key workers who’ve been tested for coronavirus have returned positive results, according to data released by the British government. According to the figures released Monday, 16,888 people who fall into the category of “key workers and their households” have been tested. So far, 5,733 – or 34% -- are confirmed to have the virus. The government has been under pressure to ramp up testing for NHS workers and their families, amid concerns about a lack of appropriate personal protective equipment. Health minister Matt Hancock has previously said that NHS staff who show symptoms -- or live with someone who does -- will be able to get tested under the government’s plan, with the ultimate goal to provide testing to all NHS staff regardless of symptoms. www.cnn.com

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/what-matters-april-13/index.html It’s time to talk more seriously about the food supply https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/opinions/firing-fauci-disaster-for-trump-americans-dantonio/index.html As former and current White House officials have revealed, the Trump administration is an often-chaotic place where the tone is set by a President who has declared he likes having "acting" and not permanent officials in place so he can move people around more readily. This practice created problems in many of the agencies that were supposed to respond to the pandemic. At the key Department of Homeland Security, according to the Washington Post tracker, just 35% of the top jobs are filled. Trump also has a bad habit of shirking responsibility and blaming his failures on others. When he says things like "I don't take responsibility at all," when asked about the lack of coronavirus testing, he reveals his problematic management style. Is it any wonder that several weeks after the coronavirus appeared in the US, no one in the White House had taken responsibility for creating a system to obtain the medical equipment that would be needed? It's no surprise, then, that Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots, took matters into his hands and sent a plane to China to buy 1.2 million N95 masks. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/media/propaganda-donald-trump-reliable-sources/index.html With that in mind, here's what Trump's trusted adviser Sean Hannity said to Texas governor Greg Abbott on Monday night: "I think most states can reopen even sooner than later -- we don't have to wait til May 1” .... In an alternate universe... Oliver Darcy adds: I know this has become a cliché thought experiment, but please oblige me: Can you imagine how the hosts and pundits on Fox News and in the greater conservative media landscape would have reacted if President Obama walked out into the White House briefing room and declared that his "authority is total"? It's really, quite honestly, a bit hard to fathom how frantic the coverage would have been. It would have been apocalyptic. Off the rails. Crazed. But with Trump? None of that...

Once again, there were HUNDREDS of thousands doing contact tracing alone in China. In just ONE major city of 11 million, and then the outlying province with a population roughly the same as CA but much more concentrated. We don't have that capacity ANYWHERE. We don't have the ability to have everyone in the United States all adopting the same cell phone messaging service (QQ/Weixin or WeChat) or mobile payments (Alipay) to create that kind of a national tracking system (you're also seeing it in South Korea) with green/red/yellow codes..."real time" track of those hot zones, etc. We especially don't have the ability to distribute food to houses/apartments on a massive scale...at an affordable price, and quickly. Which means lack of access to quality food will begin to disproportionately impact poorer communities in the coming weeks. For example, the upcoming shortages of pork (Smithfield in SD) and beef products, that will also result in massive shortages and/or price hikes. The Chinese have hundreds of thousands of drivers on scooters or e-bikes. Meituan Dianping and Ele.ma, it's an oligarchy, essentially. Bigger than the Chinese army. They make only 75 cents to 1.50 per delivery, with NO TIPPING. We couldn't scale up deliver and logistics like that if it was ORDERED by the President under the Defense Production Act. So exposing hundreds of thousands of people to weekly or bi-weekly grocery shopping definitely works against us. People STILL trying to go to church, yet another factor. A large number of older people NOT in nursing homes, but exposed when they do go to grocery stores and have to wait in long/er lines...here in China, food was brought/delivered directly o older people, fruits/vegetables/noodles/rice/dumplings, at least basic staples to get by so nobody had to go out of their apartments. Next, having 30+ million without access to health insurance (still haven't seen that all the insurance companies agreed to treat ALL Covid-19 related costs, or get subsidies back from the government, or how they were going to contain outbreaks among homeless communities, jails/prisons and immigrant/refugee groups, whether border areas or farming/meat processing, etc. Not to mention 7 states still don't even have stay-at-home orders because they think everything is fine because they're simply not testing (or hardly at all.) Then you're going to have to move all the doctors, nurses and equipment across the country whenever there's an outbreak that can't be controlled locally...whereas here in Hubei Province, EVERYONE from across the country came here, built two new hospitals completely from scratch to isolate ONLY those with serious/critical/ICU needs like respirators, etc. Everyone that was "cured" and went home....they didn't even go home right away, they went into quarantine for two more weeks away from their family. And then many who couldn't originally be accepted at hospitals, were reported by neighbors, tried to get medicine from the local pharmacies, they ALSO were put in these quarantine centers (hotels, sports stadiums, convention centers) to isolate them away from the general population.

It was on a CNN broadcast with Erin Burnett or Anderson Cooper...it's going to be hard to find because I didn't take the time to write down notes or look at the small print at the bottom of the screen whenever they show a model. It's possible it was one of the IHME scenarios out of the University of Washington, looking at what would happen if we went back to the way things were a month ago (everyone doing whatever they wanted), maintained the current level of stay at home or loosened restrictions (but not all at once).

We had the same thing happen in China. They started changing the way they were reporting the test results...they went back and forth on it (asymptomatic vs. positive tests with symptoms) and then ended up dumping 15,000 cases in the middle of the statistics, which created a huge outlier in the trendline. All I know is that Chris Murray dude from Washington with the IHME model argued that the number of COVID-related deaths should be at 60 or below for the entire country before he would consider opening it up. As this things moves westward, it's probably going to be well into June before we see numbers THAT low, knowing there's usually at least a 7-10 day staggering from when most patients start exhibiting symptoms to actually ending up in life or death struggles on a ventilator in the ICU. The rule China created was that there had to be ZERO deaths for 14 days before they would open up Hubei. I think it turned out to be 3 or 4 over that entire time. Which is obviously a much stricter standard than less than 60 deaths in the entire country for ONE day.

Just weeks ago, we had a class Jeffersonian argument for deferring to the States, in terms of giving them the authority to decide on their own about lock-down/stay at home policies. Fine, it was his way of getting out of responsibility for shutting down those economies, but at least it fits with the GOP standard operating procedure ever since 1981 under Ronald Reagan. Now, he suddenly has the absolute authority to override any governor...well, just because he has the ability to punish or reward them with life-saving supplies as President and because Jared Kushner is now in charge of "our" national stockpile and which political hacks in GA, FL and TX receive it first? That's got to be the most ridiculous argument ever. I ALMOST hope it goes to the Supreme Court, and they override the governors and take responsibility for the loss of thousands of additional lives...because it would highlight the broken politicization of that body as well. (But then it would give Trump yet another OUT, the S.C. made the decision, I'm not responsible for that either, despite nominating the two most recent justices who tipped the balance even further.) Here's the thing...can anyone imagine Governor Mike Pence of Indiana deferring to Barack Obama in such a situation? Would any Republican governor during the Bill Clinton years have agreed to cede authority to the White House in such a situation? NO WAY IN H.E.L.L.!!!

We can’t really know because of the lack of testing. It needs to be at least 5% if not 10% of the entire country tested, at least for antibodies. It’s accurately reflecting the NYC/NJ peaks...but that’s so overweighted in the total test numbers we are getting a much less accurate picture of the other 48 states. Maybe its happening? But the argument that Arkansas is having great success because of a lack of population density/natural social distancing...is not possible to verify without surveillance testing, especially in poor/rural/outlying areas of the state without adequate health care coverage and/or access.

30% of Americans will still get Covid-19 even if they maintain current measures through August 1st...that’s a sobering thought. Just one model, but the opening up of the entire country on May 1st will be an unmitigated disaster and lead to a series of haphazard closures over the course of many months.

I joined 90 minutes in at 630 a.m. China time. Two points, the China travel ban was just 20% of travelers, ONLY tourist visas. 80% of Chinese passengers still got through. Secondly, even if the national stockpiles were completely barren (they weren’t) at the end of the Obama administration, the swine flu and ebola issues depleted part of it and it’s not exactly like the Tea Party Congresses were pinpointing that as a spending priority, in fact, quite the opposite. There were three plus years to fix it, but surely he never knew they existed before six weeks ago. Finally, the CDC is clearly the one who messed up the testing. How could there be an existing test sitting around ready for a virus no scientist had ever encountered before? Yes, six eastern states (NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, PA) and then Washington, Oregon and California.

Has Trump ever taken responsibility for anything in his entire life? Or not taken an opportunity to insult a female reporter? Well, it doesn’t matter what we wants with the two coastal coalitions already...and taking the position as president that you’re ready and willing to put American lives at risk because you’re desperate to save your presidency isn’y going to fly. Every single poll out the last two weeks has significant majorities against reopening. CNN, you shouldn’t need to have the chyron “president melts down” or “president tries to rewrite history.” That will just give him another talking point about the biased media. If voters aren’t smart enough to figure it out yet, well... Most prominent and successful people in the country/world will be on the committee to reopen the economy, lol. No state should think about reopening until the number of deaths per day is under 50. Realistically, it should be the entire country under 50. What is this about a propaganda video produced for the briefing? They created something that looks more like a campaign ad but will be charged to taxpayers? How could anyone be surprised?

Trump retweeted a threat (from GOP candidate) to fire Fauci after he said the US's slow response to COVID-19 has cost lives https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-retweeted-threat-fire-fauci-015357617.html Knew a showdown was coming sooner or later. Only question is what happens first, Dr. Fauci quits or Trump fires him. The problem is that bringing back 78 year old Dr. Fauci becomes the most popular thing that Biden could fight for...to restore good governance and scientific expertise. Trump is so enthralled with Dr. Birx’s “elegance” that he just might do it. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-13-20/index.html "He's been fretting about Fauci for a while," the source said of Trump's focus on the popular public health expert. The source summed up Trump's comments about the doctor as, "Why isn't Fauci saying nice things about me?" Trump is clearly trying to make Fauci uncomfortable, a tactic he uses with many of his top officials, the official said. Part of the problem, the source said, is that some in the president's circle have been criticizing Fauci, pain(t)ing the doctor as somehow aligned with the Clintons. Trump surrogates have been spreading negative stories about Fauci in recent days, attempting to portray the doctor as party responsible for the government's response to the virus, to deflect criticism from the president. White House officials have insisted Trump has confidence in Fauci. Last Friday, Trump defended his medical experts at the coronavirus task force press conference. But he stopped short of telling his allies to cease their political attacks on Fauci and the other top doctor on the task force, Deborah Birx.

https://www.quora.com/?digest_story=205392628&source=4 This is a report from a foreigner living in Kyoto on his perceptions for lower numbers there (under reporting and under-testing in order to preserve the Olympics and economy being the primary driver IMO.) But it’s a worthwhile read if you are interested in reading how other countries deal with Covid-19 from a cultural standpoint (almost no hugging or physical contact, compared to US and southern Europe, being just one example.) Ironically, Taiwan arguably has done the best, but has been blocked by the WHO from sharing that success with the rest of the world for political reasons. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/african-nations-us-blacks-mistreated-115543155.html African countries lambasting China over racism during Covid secondary outbreak, US State Dept. also issued a warning. Even the Chinese authorities have admitted 90% of cases are being brought back to mainland and Hong Kong by permanent residents and intl. students, not “foreigners.”

I don’t disagree, but it serves more of a psychological comforting purpose here. It makes people feel or perceive that things are safe, I guess. Like the placebo effect. The thing is that because of SARs and pollution/construction work ongoing over a decade, like subways...it’s pretty ubiquitous. Especially for Chinese women under 35-40. Also watching Basehor Linwood Church in KS on CNN defy the order with over 50-100 attending multiple Easter services and not wearing masks despite state Supreme Court ruling and Governor’s ruling about no gatherings over 10. I hope those people are all willing to rely on “faith healing” and not modern medicine when the time comes for being so stubborn. One would have thought enough people “learning lessons the hard way stories” could do the trick, but, no, of course not. Finally, a story for those inclined to dislike China...this is one of the primary reasons I will be leaving in five years to go back to the US for good. It’s not as bad here in Hubei, but it’s an uglier aspect of a homogeneous culture. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/china/africans-guangzhou-china-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

With Smithfield plant shutdown in South Dakota and the Iowa and PA closures, significant percentages of nation’s meat (at least pork) supply under threat now. Here in Wuhan, people will be required to wear masks while out in public through at least June, if not into July. That’s a span of roughly 8-9 total months of impact. Lots of concern lingering about asymptomatic cases. We’re still at at least two weeks away from the very first students (just high school seniors who have national exams rescheduled back into July) returning on the 27th-29th of April, with others in May (6th and 9th grade national exams in late June) and some elementaries and Kindergartens like my son’s out for the entire semester. Which is one positive about starting school at age 3 here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Hasn’t been updated for roughly six hours, fwiw...Easter?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-governor-vows-issue-executive-185600728.html And thus, it begins. We can start tracking the anticipated uptick in Texas and compare rates to the rest of the states. Next up, Florida. Waiting for the excuse November 4th that he accidentally wiped out 10% of reliable voters over age 60. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-neighbour-reports-commuting-nhs-worker-180537924.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html Now it all makes sense. The most authoritative account so far of what went wrong dots all the i’s and crosses all the t’s. Makes the response to the Navarro warning all the more pathetic, because not only did he know about it, Trump was pissed it was so alarmist and had been put down on paper to create a trail. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/social-distancing-us-economy-covid-politics/index.html A CNN poll last week showed most want to hold the line. Fully 80% fear the worst of the outbreak lies ahead; 60% express discomfort with resuming regular routines if current White House guidelines expire on April 30. Yet underlying those figures lies a sharp partisan divide. More than twice as many Republicans (53%) say they could comfortably resume their regular routines as Democrats (23%). Republican impatience, amplified by conservative media outlets, creates a feedback loop inhibiting the consistent national response the White House coronavirus task force calls necessary to roll back the threat. GOP elected officials, business executives and religious figures eager for church services again cast coronavirus restrictions as unnecessarily "draconian," as Attorney General William Barr put it last week.

Look at the Haiti hurricane. It was something of a recent tradition for presidents of the past to bring back former leaders, like Bush and Clinton in that situation. Jimmy Carter, for example, is the president that almost every American can respect equally for all his worldwide humanitarian contributions since 1980. But our president would prefer to ask Ivanka and Jared Kushner than those three or Obama. Even if it’s not a president of the opposing party. Of course, that leaves the Bush family, another open political wound. Or McCain and Romney, more grudges that are impossible to heal for the Republican Party itself until November 4th at the earliest. We’re kind of stuck with the likes of Sanders, Biden and Trump (suspended animation)...waiting for that next generation of leaders to carry the torch. It’s not inconceivable to imagine a future far right Trump wing, everyone in the middle (30-40%) and then what’s left of the progressive movement (AOC) splitting the country into three defined factions. And maybe I’m completely off...and the national dissatisfaction over this pandemic response will have the same practical effect of burying the Bush Era of compassionate conservatism mixed with the military industrial complex into another dustbin of history. But that would be too easy.

If we go along with the assumptions many are currently making about China....that 42,000 died here instead of 3300ish, then you would have roughly 12x the rate of 3%, which would be 36%. That’s preposterous, right? So then it has to be the lack of testing...keeping in mind many people in countries around the world are not being credited as Covid-19 deaths. Even Dr. Birx is arguing the US numbers are underestimating it. It’s just hard to believe it’s any lower than 2-3% looking at those numbers in Europe. I guess there really needs to be two numbers. Those who actually get sick, test positive and ultimately recover...versus the hundred thousands who recover on their own and/or are asymptomatic. What is the ICU admittance rate for the seasonal flu? For COVID-19, it has pretty consistently been running at 12-20% around the entire world. Estimates suggest that up to 10% of patients (already) hospitalized with influenza will be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). But more than half (51%) of patients diagnosed with either influenza A (higher rate of admission) or B who were admitted to the hospital also had cardiovascular disease. It’s almost impossible to sort out and isolate because of the preexisting conditions and co-morbidities. That’s not even considering the permanent lung damage many are being left with...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3050327/coronavirus-still-stumps-experts-when-human-carrier-turns-infectious Article discussing possibility of asymptomatic transmission on February 12th. Find it pretty disconcerting that the head of HHS (compared to GA governor) would be almost two full weeks behind the mainstream press...or even this thread if we went back to February and looked for the first discussions about it. But that’s one of the biggest questions for WHO and China. Why were they STILL reporting in mid January that there was no person-to-person transmission? Trying to prevent fear or panic is understandable...but not when you are lying and then still send out 5 million people across China (Chinese New Year) and the world on trains, planes and buses. Most likely, local authorities were attempting to bury the story as long as possible...but then every epidemiologist would have to know the rate of spread/transmission wouldn’t allow for any other rational explanation known to modern science. Seems that bipartisan meetings are going to be delayed until 2021 (shocking, right?) https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/politics/new-york-times-coronavirus-trump-administration/index.html According to the report, Dr. Robert Kadlec, the top disaster response official at the Department of Health and Human Services, convened the White House coronavirus task force on February 21. During his meeting, the group conducted a mock-up exercise of the pandemic. It predicted 110 million infections, 7.7 million hospitalizations and 586,000 deaths. As a result, the group "concluded they would soon need to move toward aggressive social distancing, even at the risk of severe disruption to the nation's economy and the daily lives of millions of Americans." However, it would take more than three weeks for Trump to enact social distancing guidelines on March 16. Two days after that meeting Kadlec learned of human-to-human transmission from asymptomatic individuals, the Times report states. But instead of immediately implementing mitigation steps, the President's focus turned to messaging. .