caulfield12

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/harper-machado-unsigned-luxury-tax

Harper’s 2018 Inside Edge stats account for all 285 putouts he made in the outfield. He flubbed two of 275 plays considered routine, certainly plays he’d like to have back but nothing to indicate egregious defensive shortcomings. He converted none of six opportunities to make “remote” plays, but Harper has never made a play considered remote by Inside Edge in his entire career — those are reserved for top-end sprinters like Billy Hamilton or guys with the freakishly good instincts and reaction time of Mookie Betts. If Harper has never made plays like that in the past, he’s unlikely to start doing so with any regularity now, and they’re not enough to make or break him as a defender. Mike Trout has above-average range for a center fielder but has converted only two of 46 remote opportunities since 2014. Taking out the impossible, the remote and the routine plays leaves only 25 batted balls that tested Harper’s defensive limits in 2018. He made 12 of them, going 1-for-6 on unlikely plays, 1-for-4 on even plays, and 10-for-15 on likely (but not routine) plays. If he could’ve caught all of four more fly balls over the course of the entire season, the figures tracking his range would look a lot different. Again: He did not do that, so his defensive stats look bad. But unless your eyeballs are biased by too much time looking at in-season defensive metrics, Harper just does not look the part of an albatross defender. By sprint speed — which measures players on the basepaths, not in the outfield — Harper still moves just as well as he did from 2015-2017, when he graded out as a slightly above average defensive right fielder. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/11/bryce-harper-defense-uzr-drs-mlb-free-agency-2018

It’s pretty obvious that marketing/ticket/souvenir sales and national name recognition comes as part of the value-added Harper proposition. Whether it’s actually worth $50-75 million more (especially with the tv deal already locked in for 2020-24) is the question, because Sox fans are even more desperate for a legit winning team than one individual superstar, even if it is a position player (as opposed to Sale).

Except for the fact that Jimenez, Robert and Adolfo/Basabe (If you really squint) could potentially be 4 fWAR corner outfielders and the best we could project at 3B are currently Yolmer, Moncada or the ghost of Jake Burger.

But nobody in baseball is concerned that Harper would just “phone it in” with a huge guaranteed deal. The best thing for the White Sox might be that Machado plays so well he opts out after four years when we need to reallocate that money for the young core players to sign extensions (this is where the Cubs are, essentially, choosing between Baez/Bryant.)

So let's begin with that: If I'm running a team, I'd love to have either player as a foundation piece. There are 45 players in big league history to have generated at least 580 runs created through their age-25 season. That's Machado's career total, which happens to be seven more than Stan Musial at the same age. Harper has created 682 runs, which ranks 22nd on the 25-and-under leaderboard. He's ahead of players like Shoeless Joe Jackson, Rogers Hornsby, Tris Speaker and Lou Gehrig. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25216980/mlb-choosing-bryce-harper-manny-machado

This is the best argument that supports Jack Parkman and should give the White Sox pause...but they’re probably in too deep with all the moves they made. It really seems like Harper would be the best leader/role model for the group of talented incoming position players. It also allows you to keep Madrigal, Anderson and Moncada together in the same infield, although that might not be as ideal defensively as Madrigal/Anderson/Machado. Harper means you would have to get a near Gold Glove level defender in CF between Jimenez and him (potentially leading to more injuries to LUIS Robert). “I talked to one guy who is into baseball. He’s a scout - I’m not going to name names, but he’s a scout. And I asked him the Machado-Harper question. And this was a month ago, so it was before this [Machado’s quotes about not being ‘Johnny Hustle’]. And I said ‘Who would you take?’ I said ‘I would take Machado.’ He said ‘I would take Harper.’ He said - it was exactly what you said Joe - he said ‘I think Machado, the way he is wired, that if he gets the big money, you’re gonna lose him. If he gets the big money, he’s just going to set back.’ And look, his talent, he’s still going to produce, but he’s a guy that’s just going to take the money and check out on you. He said Harper, he has his own warts, but he said ‘Harper’s a guy that is so ultra competitive, inherently competitive, that he’s still going to go out and play hard all the time.’ He said ‘I can’t guarantee that Machado would. In fact, I would almost guarantee you he would not.’ “ https://94wip.radio.com/manny-machado-bryce-harper-wip

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25897858/bryce-harper-meets-san-diego-padres-sources-say

The problem is he really enjoys Toronto, has the makings of at least a Finals team out of the East and the organization just doesn't overbid for executive talent. Unless you were a glutton for punishment or Don Quixote, why would you want to go to the Bulls? You pretty much need to bring in two superstars to go with Markannen and Carter as your complementary players. I'm not even sure getting Steve Kerr as the coach would make one iota of difference.

Clevinger is actually the one who improved the most last year. By ERA+, Bauer was by far the best, Kluber second and Clevinger not far behind, then Carrasco and Bieber/Plutko. It’s possible they try to make Salazar a closer with his nasty stuff and the obvious bullpen needs. But you can also be sure they’re mulling a return to the rotation and then adding at the trade deadline with the financial flexibility derived from dumping so many high salaries (all bad contracts are gone but Kipnis, and he’s still capable of another 4-5 war year if you look at his track record.)

Shelby Miller, Miley and Kelley, etc. Of course, whenever we win the offseason or win trades, it almost never turns out that way in reality...other than Jimenez and Cease so far.

Unless Santana can return to their rotation and stay healthy, but it also increases their outfield WAR by 2.5 - 3. And they’d be getting a lot more back than Joc, If it was Verdugo (plus ?) instead and he blows up, the Indians really win that trade because it also frees up another big salary to reinvest in the bullpen or keeping Ramirez long-term.

Thomas’ was a season-ending triceps injury in May (David Wells criticized him for not playing hurt) , but the point still remains that Machado could also blow out his elbow on a throw, tear his Achilles’ tendon, blow out his ACL, etc. No way either guy signs a one year deal...their agents would never accept it, nor would the MLBPA.

Except Machado never said he wanted to play for the Mets, it was speculation his wife preferred NYC. He has always wanted the Yankees, but it wasn’t an either/or proposition.

Then he would just take another one year deal to go back to Milwaukee, with Shaw moving back to 2B...

The only ones you can argue over López are Cease and a healthy Kopech...and the ghost of Hansen.

Would the Sox bid the same on Luis Robert today, knowing how fragile he has been? Would they draft Burger? Rodon? (Thinking about Kolek, Aiken and Rodon at the top of that draft must make scouts wince...granted, those are pitchers.) We can go back to Frank Thomas’ Achilles injury in 2001...for bigger dudes (Machado qualifies) , there’s still a risk those players won’t be exactly the same upon returning. Would he have enough lateral quickness and first step burst to still play Gold Glove level at 3B? That’s a significant aspect of his value proposition. Shohei Ohtani as just a DH if he were a FA this year again? What about accidents like Jayson Williams with the Bulls, Aaron Rowland with his motorcycle, Jose Fernandez, Yordano Ventura, Oscar Tavares, that Angels’ rookie pitcher Adenhart... Now while all these probabilities are not great, they are risks most agents and players aren’t willing to assume...to leave $200+ million on the table and assume you will be able to better your negotiating position in the future.

If Porzingis is 100% healthy. Hopefully building his next playoff team keeps Cuban busy.

Apparently, we need Kardashians/Jenner’s to date MLB stars instead...and the various reality t.v. shows built-in around that. And a baseball wives show as well. In all seriousness, you would think someone in PR for MLB would be able to come up with something that’s not about making baseball more like a video game or app that young people could respond to.

Porzingis makes sense as part of the trade package for Davis if the Pelicans are smart enough to turn down Kuzma, Ball, Ingram and picks. None of those three are going to be huge difference makers down the line due to inherent flaws in their games. Ball is tempting, but there’s no certainty he can fix his shooting...but the Jason Kidd comparisons are there. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2818308-jimmy-butler-is-always-keeping-score?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial "Whatever you want from this game, win and you can have it," Jimmy Butler says while wearing a 76ers hoodie and sweats, having recently left the team's practice facility. "Name it. You want money? You want a max deal? If you win, I guarantee you have a better chance of that. You want the finest woman in the world? I guarantee: If you win, you're going to have a chance at that. You want all the cars, you want the big house—whatever it is—if you win, I guarantee you'll have a chance at that. Winning is that trump card that everything can be at your fingertips, but you got to win."

The Padres are a threat because their ownership group is about as popular as Loria in Miami. They almost would prefer to see Machado opt out after 3-4 years, but desperately need him right now for credibility with the fans. Of course, the biggest problem with this is either player would be suppressing their offensive numbers because of PetCo...it would be easier (for example) for Machado to play SS for the Rockies and then move to 3B, replacing Arenado and putting up the massive offensive numbers before going back out onto the market in 2020 or 2021. Just not sure the Rockies would risk alienating Nolan. Also, it still seems like a lot of work to sign for even three years with a team you really don’t want to be paired with. And the Dodgers are a massive roadblock in that division, compared to the Indians. Plus the national media doesn’t pay much attention to the West Coast teams, other than both LA teams and SF. Finally, marketing deals in SD compared to his presence in a major market? Almost negligible.

How can you know if they have the ability to sign him without doing any research about their finances? Sure, if all they have to do is pay $200 million, they can wing that if they figure out a way to clear Myers’ salary, which won’t exactly be easy. Once they get above $250 million, it’s just not going to make sense when they have the clear #1 farm system in baseball and can probably move Urias or one of their other prospects over. Heck, they could simply trade for Franco of the Phillies, thus opening that spot up for Machado if the Phillies can’t convince Harper to leave Washington.

The Cubs are already at $229 million. You can’t force Harper on them...after watching Darvish and Heyward, most of their fanbase is at best neutral and many are openly against another mega contract, instead preferring to invest in extensions for their own players. The a Red Sox just won a World Series being over the first tax threshold. The Dodgers are proving big spending doesn’t guarantee a World Series win.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t get out we’re offering Harper significantly more than Machado...

Read the article. Why would Lozano or Boras have anything to lose? Do you realize how much debt Moores passed on when he sold the Padres? The ONE problem the White Sox have never had to deal with is debt overhang and paying for stadium renovations...