caulfield12

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 12:57 PM) Whatever we think they're going to blame the Republicans for destroying something useful, the voters will assume "those people" (euphemism) are really the problem since they're getting the good, free versions reserved for those minorities. Well, the Dems shouldn’t have done messaging so badly that Obama and Clinton were seen to be more in bed with Wall Street than the Republicans. The Trans Pacific Trade stuff just furthered the message Dems had capitulated and sold out labor interests to corporate America. You can’t remove the demoralizing split in the party which suppressed voter turnout, especially when all the stuff about Wasserman Schulz and Brazile came out. If African Americans really liked Hillary like they used to like her husband, the election wouldn’t have been close. That blah people’s stuff will get you a significant number of votes (let’s say, up to 20-25%), but even then it wasn’t enough to win the election for Moore when you throw in other mitigating factors. And there are just as many Republicans who vote that way over social issues like abortion/birth control and strong military/gun rights.

DOT says airlines won’t have to disclose baggage fees: What consumers can do https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dot-says-air...-212725108.html On Dec. 7, the Department of Transportation (DOT) released a statement announcing its intention to remove two proposed rules requiring airlines to disclose ancillary fees at booking. This includes baggage fees, which pulled in approximately $1.2 billion for airlines between July and Sept. These rules were originally proposed by the Obama administration in January 2017, but were never finalized by the new administration after President Trump took office. Now they’ve been officially withdrawn, leaving supporters frustrated and out of options.

Brian, Brian, Brian...you say the same thing every year. It's our first glimpse that gives us at least a good chance at predicting the Oscar races a month or so early. Yes, it's like comparing the People's Choice Awards or MTV VMA's to the Grammy's, but it's still fun to look at.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 09:35 PM) Kentucky state Rep accused of molesting 17yo, commits suicide. https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/941123734177492992 The sexual assault was reported back in 2013, but it didn't lead to formal charges (one of many reasons most victims are afraid to come forward, due the collusion between elected officials and law enforcement to dismiss). There have been four other GOP Kentucky state lawmakers involved in their own sexual harassment scandals, including House Speaker Jeff Hoover. Of course, this particular guy was the pastor/Sunday school teacher of a church...who sponsored bills having to do with religious liberty and teaching the Bible in public schools. Claimed the allegations were part of a nationwide Democratic strategy of defeating conservative Republicans. PTSD related to 9/11 was the supposed excuse....? https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/morgan-...-012342198.html Documentarian Morgan "Super Size Me" Spurlock, COME ON DOWN

The Simmons news is a couple of weeks old, but the three rapes (as opposed to just one allegation) isn't. He already left his company CEO position.

Hockey player's wife says Trump harassed her in an elevator Politics 1 hour ago Stacia Robitaille, the wife of NHL Hall of Famer and LA Kings President Luc Robitaille, described an "aggressive" encounter with President Trump in an elevator at Madison Square Garden more than two decades ago. I was once on a elevator alone with @realDonaldTrump (& a man w/him) at Madison Square Gardens. He was aggressive & told me I was coming home with him. I laughed, stating I was married to a Ranger. He guaranteed me my husband didn’t make as much money as him. #ThisIsOurPresident — Stacia Robitaille �� (@StaciaRR) December 12, 2017 That's TWENTY (20). Warren Sapp apparently doesn't have a fan in former DL Kris Jenkins "I hate him. Everybody says I'm supposed to be polite when I talk to you all, but I hate him. He talks too much, he doesn't make sense, he's fat, he's sloppy, he acts like he's the best thing since sliced bread. He's ugly, he stinks, his mouth stinks, his breath stinks, and basically his soul stinks, too. Not too many people have personalities like that and survive in life. I don't know how he does it."

Jones is expected to be seated anytime between Dec 26 and Jan 3. The Republicans are expected to pass the tax bill sometime in the middle of next week. Corker and Collins are the main GOP obstructionists right now, but those two alone can’t stop it. 8 numbers out of Alabama that should terrify Republicans http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/ala...ysis/index.html

The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the General Election. I was right! Roy worked hard but the deck was stacked against him! Nice try, Trumpster. The fact is that Moore easily was going to win that race before the sexual misconduct allegations...while it’s true Strange probably would have won, Trump endorsed Moore wholeheartedly when he thought there was a good chance he could win the final two weeks. He did the Pensacola rally Friday and robocall recordings. Three losses in a row, Gillespie in VA, now Strange and Moore, all in just a couple months. Ain’t winnin’ grand? The irony is you might have stayed out of it had Ivanka not commented on Moore. Then couldn’t resist.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/5th-trump-accuse...-145458755.html 5th Trump accuser of the week (out of 19 total) going public to ask for Congressional investigation

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/opinion/...col-left-region What Happens if the Tax Bill is a Revenue Disaster? Paul Krugman For one thing, the bulk of the gains will go to the rich, who probably spend less of a marginal dollar. And this will be especially true for rich people receiving what they suspect will be transient income gains. So, imagine yourself as a wealthy, liquid taxpayer experiencing a surge in after-tax income because your accountant has found clever ways to exploit the idiocy of new legislation. It will be fun and lucrative, but you’d have to suspect that the fun will end eventually – that even this GOP, with this leadership, will eventually close the most outrageous loopholes. So we might see big deficits that have relatively little real effect, because the winners from system-gaming save most of their gains. Notice, by the way, that this isn’t the conclusion I’d like to reach on political grounds. Given how terrible this bill is, I’d like to claim that it will lead to immediate market disaster. But I try not to engage in motivated reasoning (although sometimes I give in to temptation, then apologize); and I just don’t see a market disaster even if we see the expected epidemic of tax avoidance. What about the politics? OK, here I don’t have a clear model, so this is much more speculative. Still, what happens if the deficit balloons, and it’s clear that gaming of the tax bill is a major factor? We know what Ryan and McConnell will try to do: they’ll try to use deficits as an excuse to cut safety-net programs. But will they be able to get away with this with the memory of the tax scam still fresh in everyone’s memory? I’m pretty cynical about centrists and the propensity of the media to be taken in by charlatans, but I think this would probably be a bait and switch too far. Put it this way: Republicans would surely use big deficits as an excuse to propose big cuts in social programs, but they’d face a barrage of hostile media coverage, plus lots of public demonstrations as in the case of health care, all reminding everyone that these deficits were created by their own dishonest promises just a few months earlier. And imagine, as we should, that all of this would go along with many front-page stories about dubious business types abusing the new loopholes. Doesn’t this sound like a political disaster for the GOP? They could, of course, simply ignore the deficit and leave Medicare alone. But my guess is that they won’t be able to help themselves, that they’ll be prisoners of their own rhetoric even as the most unpopular legislation in history becomes pure political poison. So that’s my prediction: minor market impact, but quite probably a political disaster for the GOP as it becomes even clearer that their tax policies reward scammers. Of course, all this may be overshadowed by constitutional crisis. But that’s for another essay.

This is the biggest upset politically I can remember since Scott Brown beat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts and trimmed Obama's margins in the middle of the Tea Party/ObamaCare fallout. As one GOPer said, you should have been able to pick ANYONE in the state of Alabama randomly out of a phone book and still won that race. The only person who COULD have lost is Roy Moore.

Seems that losing those write-in votes for Republican stand-ins (including Shelby's vote) might have been the final difference. There was a huge spread between men and women, +13 for Moore (men) and a whopping +17 for Jones (women). In the Clinton/Trump election last year, it was +11 Trump (men) and +13 Clinton (women). That spread widened another 6%, one could assume largely due to the sexual misconduct allegations. Trump, Bannon, McConnell the biggest losers on the night. Tennessee now looks to be in play with Phil Bredesen announced for Corker's seat.

-3.6% Tightening again. With all the positives about Alabama in recent years, Mercedes-Benz, aerospace industry, Univ. of Alabama and Auburn both trending in a positive direction academically...had perhaps unjustified higher hopes compared to what we're seeing right now.

Turnout expected to be around 25%. Jones has been trending well with indicators like white college-educated women voters and chipping off 20% of moderate/liberal Republicans....but he's still behind by 1.5% with 5 per cent in so far. Down 9.8% now...going in the wrong direction quickly in the last 10-15 minutes. He has to sweep across those 9 majority African-American counties in the bottom 1/3rd of the state.

Well, the ObamaCare/Medicaid hits are going to land hardest on 15 states. 12 of them voted Trump. Hawaii, Virginia and Massachusetts are the only exceptions. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. As far as Bitcoin goes, Jack Bogle (Vanguard) predicted only 4% average ROR over the next decade...why not, as long as it's only 5-10% of your assets and you can afford to lose it all. For most "normal" investors, perhaps it's time to start shifting to stocks paying higher dividends with almost all of the asset price gains from the tax plan already baked into the market and Fed interest rate policy eventually cooling down the economy. Otoh, all the stock buybacks (funded by corporate tax cuts/taxpayers) will help investors, but the question is how much more?

McConnell's in an even tougher situation if Moore wins, because it puts nearly every GOP Senator into a potential primary (against Darth Bannon), even in states like South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah. Arizona (Flake's seat), Nevada (Heller) and Mississippi (Wicker) are going to be thrown into chaos if ultra-right wing candidates emerge there. Then you've got Corker's seat in TN and Ted Cruz/Beto O'Rourke as well in TX. The odds would still have to be about 75% in favor of the GOP holding the majority, with the Dems having 3X more seats being contested and having to win ALL those toss-ups like McCaskill, Manchin (WV), Donnelly, Heitkamp and Tester. 8 seats for GOP, 23 for Dems.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 04:38 PM) *whispers to self* please don't look at exits please don't look at exits *clicks link to exit poll* Moore supposedly needed at least 27% African American turnout to win. The women’s vote seems just as important, especially anyone close to independent/moderate. They all have to break towards Jones. Nearly six in 10 voters for Democrat Doug Jones were black in these preliminary exit polls Nine in 10 Moore voters were white. A slim majority of voters for Moore were white men. (Three in 10 voters in this election are black in these initial results, a number that can change as more results come in throughout the night. That portion is on par with presidential elections in 2008 and 2012.) Voters continue to be nearly evenly divided on a host of questions about the two candidates in Tuesday's election. Alabamians are evenly split on whether they view Jones favorably, while Moore’s favorability rating is underwater by double digits in preliminary exit polling. CNN.com

QUOTE (Quin @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 04:07 PM) And because we're living in a poorly written political thriller... http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/i...court_rule.html Alabama's Secretary of State, who believes you have to earn the right to vote, got an injunction filed so that he can destroy voting records from tonight. He also went to Russia last year to observe their elections and had glowing reviews. Somehow, that is not an Onion article. Are we sure he didn’t go there with Sessions? Who funded that trip, exactly? What could possibly be gained from such a junket that would be of value to taxpayers?

This is the list of ‘eyewitnesses’ the White House says exonerate Trump Late Monday night, Sanders sent the list to ThinkProgress. https://thinkprogress.org/eyewitnesses-whit...f64364/?ref=yfp

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/ala...rump/index.html How a Democrat could win in Alabama, in charts

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/2018-go...-154744603.html Golden Globes, snubs and surprises https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/golden-...-132456778.html List of nominations

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kayla-moore-anti...-034332383.html Well, the Moore family (at least his wife) does know a lawyer who is a Jew. "One of our attorneys is a Jew." (Notice she didn't say Jewish, which would have been the preferred way to express it). Glad to know they're NOT anti-Semitic!!! ALMOST starting to feel sorry for the Republican Party if he should still happen to win tomorrow night. Nate Silver gives Moore 70% odds to win Because you’ve read so much detail about the polls, I don’t want to leave you without some characterization of the race. I still think Moore is favored, although not by much; Jones’s chances are probably somewhere in the same ballpark as Trump’s were of winning the Electoral College last November (about 30 percent). The reason I say that is because in a state as red as Alabama, Jones needs two things to go right for him: He needs a lopsided turnout in his favor, and he needs pretty much all of the swing voters in Alabama (and there aren’t all that many of them) to vote for him. Neither of these are all that implausible. But if either one goes wrong for Jones, Moore will probably win narrowly (and if both go wrong, Moore could still win in a landslide). The stakes couldn’t be much higher for the candidates — or for the pollsters who surveyed the race. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-t...-alabama-polls/

Secret super PAC backing Jones in Alabama exposed A group that's spent more than $4 million on the Democrat's behalf is controlled by Washington interests, even as Jones has distanced himself from the national party. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/s...a-senate-290502 Believe it or not, the media does actually do its job.

It's also going to be interesting to see how the Sen. Shelby "about face" on Sunday (admitting he voted write-in GOP candidate instead of Moore) affects this.

After President Donald Trump attacked CNN in a Saturday tweet — claiming the network represents the US “very poorly” on the international stage — the cable news outlet shot back in a tweet of their own. “It’s not CNN’s job to represent the U.S to the world. That’s yours. Our job is to report the news. #FactsFirst,” tweeted CNN’s official public relations account. @FoxNews is MUCH more important in the United States than CNN, but outside of the U.S., CNN International is still a major source of (Fake) news, and they represent our Nation to the WORLD very poorly. The outside world does not see the truth from them! Donald J. Trump