caulfield12

Nobody ever made fun of Al Gore...

Everyone is really excited to hear your plan, Dick. Signing Jackson and Cespedes and Gordon...what else do you have up your sleeve? Well, cross one off your list. So what now? Austin Jackson? Cespedes? For how much and how many years? You're content with Saladino and Erik Johnson? We know the plan probably involves a contract extension for Ventura, John Danks and the firing of Don Cooper. The Gordon Beckham ship has sailed twice, so that option's out, thankfully. Your persistence in defending all of them is admirable, albeit shortsighted.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 11:37 PM) What has changed? Opt outs aren't anything new. Once again you back step. Now, what do you do if the Sox Sign Cespedes tomorrow? Complain about how much they spent and how they will be out of the free agent market 3 years from now. Everyone knows your act. Link us to something that says they would sign a reasonable 4 year contract with an opt out after 2. How do you know the Sox haven't floated that, how do you know they would sign it? Let it be stated they at least went for it. That didn't work out in 2011 and 2014, but they're kind of past the point of no return where half-measures won't get them anywhere beyond the low 80's for wins. The farm system isn't self-sustaining, either. If they sign Upton or Cespedes tomorrow and it's for less than $100 million and less than five years, I will have zero complaint....because it works out wonderfully or they're forced to change the decision makers and coaching staff and try a new approach instead of continually being in desperation mode. As you always point out, if the Royals can make terrible moves like Omar Infante, Alex Rios, Jason Vargas and Guthrie and still not miss a beat, there's still hope the White Sox can hit the jackpot just once on an acquisition.

The Royals contract the last two years has been valued at $50-70 million but they've only received $20 million each year because they have the lowest media rights deal in all of MLB (and yet can still afford 4 years and $72 million for Gordon, when the White Sox media packages give them at least $65-70 million just for regional rights. (Both teams also had an increase of $25 million last year or the year before for national, such as FOX/ESPN/TBS/TNT, etc.) I think it's reasonable to assume they believe that having a much more marketable product in 2018 and 2019 would push the projected valued of the deal (assuming for inflation) into the $80-120 million range per year. So you're talking the media rights quadrupling (at a minimum) and going up by a factor of six on the maximum upside. Splitting the difference at $100 million (which is a lot less than the White Sox would/should receive, by the way), that $44 million (including buyout) for Gordon in 2018 and 2019 isn't much at all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 09:13 PM) Then why in the other thread did you say never go more than 3 years? Because that WAS the market December 23rd. A LOT has changed since then. If the rates were $125-150 million for Upton and Cespedes, clearly those would be longer than 3 years and questionable signs. It's when the money gets in the $75-100 million range over 4 years that the equation changes dramatically...not to mention all the opt-outs/options/clauses that teams are getting creative with, like the Scott Kazmir contract with the Dodgers. You can sign Cespedes to a four year deal with an extremely high probability he opts out after year 2 or 3, so, while technically a four year deal...it's also not one in actuality. At any rate, for Upton and Cespedes, if the rates are reasonable, I would be willing to guarantee a fourth year if that was the deciding factor, knowing the contract as structured made it likely the Sox would only have to pay them for 2-3 seasons.

Here's the thing. The Cubs just paid Zobrist for four years and he's MUCH older than Cespedes and could be Upton's father (joking). Was it an overpay, maybe...but if you approach FA negotiations with a dogged determination never to go past 3 years you might as well not even bother. Just tell all the agents...well, if your client can't find 4-6 years anywhere, ring up the White Sox. It's the kind of rigid decision Wal-Mart would make about unions or health care benefits. Last time I checked, the White Sox weren't a monopoly or even close to an oligopoly in the AL.

Yes, because you have that "hometown" discount (see Buehrle, Konerko, Sale, Q) and flexibility with the structuring of the contract...you can then afford to go out and sign another starting pitcher to solidify your team for the two most critical seasons when you need to compete. Desmond and Fowler would make more sense signing late if you had them for team control for at least 2 seasons, if not 3. The reason for that is well-documented...what happened to Morales and Drew. Plus, that gives Desmond time to adjust to playing outfield in 2017 if that's the biggest need of the Sox...IF IF IF Saladino can actually hold down the position for an entire season, which is a big IF. As I stated many times, the Royals are likely to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Volquez and Wade Davis after 2017...the odds of keeping more than 1-2 are infinitesimal. At that time, at least still they'll have Gordon, Ventura and Sal Perez as "hometown" heroes for bumping up their next media rights deal from $20 to $100-120 million per season. $40 million for Alex Gordon (+ $4 million buyout) over those two seasons won't be the end of the world. He's worth more to the Royals than any other team for marketing purposes.

Who the heck are we actually competing with for Fowler? The Cubs? Cardinals? Orioles? Angels? Would the Orioles really give up a draft pick for him? Does he really make enough of a difference to make the Angels a sure-fire pennant contender from their current status? Every columnist coming out and suggesting Garcia as a rebound candidate didn't have the benefit or misfortune to suffer through the last 4 months of the season watching him flailing away helplessly.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 08:20 PM) Wasn't that before they acquired Frazier and Lawrie? They went from a middle infield making league minimum to those two. For all we know, that money could have been what allowed Hahn to get both of them. That was in the early months of last season and the off season heading into 2015. There's really not a huge amount of difference between Frazier/Lawrie in 2016 and Samardzija last year, something like $5-6 million, or about the same as Bonifacio/Beckham. The real issue here has to be cash flow THIS SEASON, because next year LaRoche and Danks will both be off the books.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 08:17 PM) I have absolutely know idea why they would stick to 3 years with him . That would be his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons. It's not unreasonable to go 4 or even 5 years for him which would bring him through age 34. If the Sox thought they could get production from Adam LaRoche's age 35 and 36 seasons why wouldn't they pay for a much more athletic guy like Cespedes age 33 and 34 seasons ? I just don't get what the FO is doing. They have to go at least 4 years to be taken seriously . Cespedes will not want to re-enter free agency after his age 32 season. If that's the ultimate lesson of Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche and John Danks, great. Then develop one of the top 5-10 farm systems in the game (that consistently produces 2-3 contributors per season) and spend that money in Latin America/international free agents under 30. Being timid now after being so aggressive going after Lawrie and Frazier doesn't make any sense. The White Sox, Padres and Red Sox weren't wrong about spending last year. They simply picked the wrong players. This whole thing is like the White Sox are promoting the idea of Natalie Portman in Closer or Jessica Alba in Sin City and then we dutifully buy our tickets and Bartolo Colon comes out in a thong instead.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 08:03 PM) Didnt the Sox have some money they were trying to offer shark. Is that money still floating around or did they spend it on something we don't know about. They supposedly had it for Shark, something like $90-100 million. They bid at least $120-125 million on Tanaka. Technically, Upton fits the mold of being closer to his prime age-wise than Cespedes, but it's a clear case of need and fit coming together if ever there was... That's not overpaying him at the originally expected 6 years and $150 million, it's the 4-5 years (depending on opt-outs/buy-outs/options) and $75-105 million range where the benefits start to outweigh the costs. Basically, the same contract demands of Alex Gordon originally, but for a player who was 100% healthy last year and put up MVP numbers.

If you could sign Cespedes for four years and $80-90 million (and a player opt-out after Year 2 or Year 3), it would be be pretty crazy not to do so. Sure, he's not a 6 WAR player. But that amount of money, you're paying him like a 3-3.5 WAR guy, which is definitely the going rate on the FA market, if not an underpay based on the upside as well as marketing benefits from pairing him with Abreu. It makes the White Sox a much more interesting team to fans. Nobody's going to pay money to come out and watch Dexter Fowler, but they would to see a 500 foot homer or laser-like throw.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:09 PM) Read #3. As far as I can tell they will be paying Gordon $20 million in year 3, and probably $24 million in year 4 with the buyout.and amazing how Fowler would be a smart play for one team, but a guy who wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL with another. Ummm...if buyouts are pushed one year ahead for accounting purposes, sure. Actually, the last two years of Gordon are more about investing against their upcoming media rights deal. He will likely be the main remaining face of the franchise then. And I never said sign Fowler before the draft pick expiration...I said I would wait and see if Fowler and Desmond were still on the board as the season started. See #6 for further reference.

I said all along to sign Parra, Jackson or Span if the price on Cespedes or Upton was too high. It's what KC should have done until they managed a deal that pays Alex Gordon $28 million the next two years, the same the White Sox will pay Fowler, plus losing the draft pick. So they've turned Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Ravelo, AND a lost compensation pick worth $10-12 million in short and long-term impact into a below average CF who strikes out too much and who will essentially be earning the same as a four time Gold Glover who projects to have a higher OBP. In the meantime, the lack of depth in the farm system rules out 75% of the possible remaining trades on the board. Brilliant.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:35 PM) Dick Allen dropping the well... Dick on top of Caulfield's head. And for the last month everyone has been arguing we're inevitably going to sign Upton and Cespedes. What changed?

If everyone in MLB was so convinced that Dexter Fowler was so great after one year in Houston with no pressure on him, then why did he only receive a one year offer from the at the time rebuilding Cubs? Why weren't contending teams willing to offer him a guaranteed starting role and multiple years?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 05:31 PM) This is where you are so full of s***. When it was rumored the Sox were after Gordon or Cespedes, you said 4 year contracts were dumb. You also mentioned the Sox should sign Gerardo Parra, the guy that couldn't hit in the AL last year. When the new rumor is Fowler, that is a dumb idea , he is a guy who will have a hard time adjusting to the AL. I think you forgot Houston was in the AL. No, you said now is the time to spend money. Of course earlier you told us the Sox didn't have any money, they spent it all last year, and no way they didn't take a loss during the 2015 season. You also told us there was no chance Cespedes would sign with the Sox unless they paid an additional percentage because he liked the marketing opportunities on the east coast, and/or his 3 months in Detroit. Do you remember what you post, or do you just ignore the fact that you keep contradicting yourself based on the newest White Sox rumor? Unless you know the exact amounts of the contracts, everything is relative. Of course Parra, Jackson or Span are better than paying Cespedes six years and $150 million. Of course overpaying Fowler and losing the draft pick at the same time is dumb. You're still arguing Jackson over Fowler, so what's the point? Circumstances don't ever change? I still stand by my December 23rd post that making a number of improvements instead of one big improvement is preferable. IN GENERAL. That said, if the choice of that last big improvement is Cespedes vs. Fowler, or Upton vs. Fowler, then I would much rather pay either of them four years and $80-90 million rather than signing Fowler and also losing the pick. Why is that so hard to understand? All along I've been mentioning Desmond and second tier starting options. Please list all of the players remaining on the market, their salaries and then we can have a debate about the merits of one over another or two being better than one, etc.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:55 PM) Wouldn't it be funny if Upton, Cespedes and Davis all signed one year "pillow contracts," with the idea of re-entering free agency in next years "weak" class"? Suddenly, next year's free agent class becomes stronger than this year's, by virtue of subtracting those 3 from this year's crop, and adding them to next year's. This year had a ton of starting pitching. Brett Anderson is top three next year. Carlos Gomez and Rasmus are the two best outfielders, for example.

QUOTE (Brian @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 12:07 PM) She should win out of those nominees. JLaw is 26 and getting the Streep treatment that she must be nominated. I didn't see Joy but reviews are lackluster. Benicio Wouldve fit in on True Detective s2. Staring, whispering. Zzzzzzz Joy was fine but it wasn't particularly praiseworthy. Take DeNiro, Lawrence and Cooper out of it and you essentially have a Lifetime movie of the week about female empowerment and entrepreneurialism.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:54 PM) Once again technically Jackson's defense is better than anyone we've been talking about except for Upton and Cespedes. He breaks even in alot of defensive categories which I cant say is the case for alot of these guys. The question is what value do you put on the prospect of potentially saving anywhere from around 11-15 runs? How many games do you think that could potentially cost if you dont save them? Jackson is better than both those guys...especially CF comparing him with Cespedes.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:35 PM) When they have a roster that's not already at their set budget level. Also, maybe when there's a superstar available for them. Cespedes is absolutely not a superstar. If you take into consideration the draft pick loss...the difference per year on Cespedes at 4 years and $80 million isn't that extreme at all. We've already seen the White Sox screw up their financial flexibility with Cabrera and LaRoche already...we keep making mistakes on second tier free agents, preventing us from ever signing the best ones. Who's to say Fowler wouldn't be a complete bust? Statistically, you can argue Cabrera and Fowler's collective bust rate vs. Upton and Cespedes individually. I certainly agree you don't give Cespedes over $100 million or over four years...that's obvious.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:29 PM) How can a DH cost you runs on defense? He isn't even out there. Someone must have done a retrospective study and came up with this number to make the math work. They don't. It's a way to subjectively punish those players for not playing the field everyday in terms of their contribution...it overvalues catcher, SS and CF and does the opposite with 1b and DH.

If there was ever going to be a time for the White Sox to spend big on a free agent...it's here and now. If not now, when exactly?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:17 PM) How many big years did Cespedes have in the AL? 2? Fowler played,1,season in the AL and had a career high 124 wRC+. Your claim that he would have a hard time adjusting to the AL is based,on nothing and full of s***. What was his WAR? The White Sox can go ahead and sign another Cub hero...it would be kind of typical. But thanks for taking every argument and making it as if you're conclusively right and it's insane to think he might not smoothly and seamlessly adjust back to the AL Central because of one year in Houston where there was zero pressure to produce anything and nobody in even Houston was paying attention. It did allow him to resuscitate his career. All of Cespedes' numbers were put up on playoff-contending teams...or at least teams who started those seasons expecting to make it, except for his rookie year in Oakland possibly.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 04:08 PM) I prefer Jackson but once,again you don't let facts stop your rants. Fowler has played in the AL and did quite well offensively. He was horrible on defense. For one season with Houston. Compared to Cespedes' track record, it's not even close.