caulfield12

$38.8 million for CarGo over a two year time span MIGHT be considered a fair price (simply because it's not for a long-term)...but I wouldn't in a million years trade Q/Rodon/Anderson/Fulmer to have the right to pay CarGo that much. Otherwise, it would be more logical to just roll the dice on contracts for 4 years/$80-90 million (with opt-outs) with Cespedes or Upton. Rodon or Q alone have to be worth much more than the possibility of Upton or Cespedes under-performing in the back half of those contracts. The key would be balancing the front-loaded/opt-out aspects with the payroll flexibility side of things. The Royals are only paying Alex Gordon $28 million combined the next two seasons, for example. In terms of competing with KC, CarGo would actually cost $10 million more in 2016/17...that's a HUGE gamble based on 1/2 season of play when the Rockies weren't even competing for anything at that time.

Unless they're bluffing about Moss or Adams (despite his anemic/injury-filled 2015) playing first...or even Holliday. That power boost in the middle of the line-up would go a long ways toward compensating for the OBP/defensive loss of Heyward. However, the Cardinals are never going to shell out that kind of money for five years, let alone seven. Heyward was a rare exception because of his age. Rangers have Moreland, Fielder for 1B/DH and then Hamilton/Ruggiano platoon in LF, but coming back to the organization where he started his career could make some degree of sense, plus I think Davis is originally from Texas.

It seems that if there are 6-7 credible possibilities for Chris Davis, the market for Cespedes and Upton should be just as wide open, especially for American League teams who can rotate at DH as well. I suppose it also depends for most of those teams how confident they actually are sticking Davis at a corner outfield spot for a year or two (eg. Detroit/Texas). Then we still don't know exactly how many teams are going to be drawn into a one-year deal for Upton...and how much of this 2 or 3 year/opt-out versus a 5 year guaranteed deal on Cespedes is gumming up the mix.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25446036

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 02:39 PM) There's enough of a gray area that it could still lead to lots of harassment and problems. Regardless, the focus of that post was not the law (which is dumb and unnecessary) but the comment. edit: also the follow-up from a fellow s***bag representative: The rep can't spell believe and isn't aware of inclination versus the word he made up....ouch.

Cargo's injury history, home/road splits, going from NL to AL and contract all work against him. If the Rockies are rebuilding, keeping Cargo makes much less sense compared to the other two unless they really believe he gives that much of an attendance/marketing bump as a franchise icon.

The Revenant didn't force a love story like Dances with Wolves into it either...there was a point it felt it could go in that direction, which still ends up as a kep plot point later in the movie. The addition of the father/son idea was the main Hollywoodization.

With Brantley out until midseason, and huge holes (the equivalent of Saladino, Avi and LaRoche) at 3b and RF, the Indians really shouldn't be the favorite until they prove they can win with Brantley. Rajai Davis isn't that impressive, either...and who knows what Napoli actually has left. Not to mention Kipnis and Santana are so inconsistent. But yeah, Lindor's so overlooked because of the team he plays for and the arrival of Correa and Bryant at roughly the same time. And they should have a healthy Gomes for the full season. If they added Cespedes or Upton, sure. Pen has some question marks, as well as overall defense.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 01:56 PM) Is the Count showing up to join Abreu and roll out the red carpet for Cespedes? As good as Sale has been, that roll Count went on that one year (don't remember which year...but I want to say it was 2005 and again in 2006 until his back or whatever it was got the best of him) was just absurd. I went from being annoyed by Contreras to thinking we'd never lose when he was on the mound. So damn dominant. What a trade by Kenny to get Jose. Basically the last two months of 2005 (not including the start against Byrd in the ALCS) and the first two months of 2006...I think he got hurt on the road against Cincy when he had that streak of consecutive regular-season wins still going from the previous season and that was the beginning of the end. Now I can't even remember if it was the hip or Achilles (covering 1B), but something caused him to change his delivery or arm angle a bit after that injury happened. Never a more dominant pitcher than when he had that two pitch combination of fastballs at 96-97 touching 98 and then the forkball falling off the table when he didn't overthrow it.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 06:34 PM) How do you get the 6%? Are you factoring in for the large percentage who doesn't vote and thus aren't counting them? Either way, Huffpost poll (1st poll I came up with via google search) had Trump at 36.3. By and large, voting public is split 50/50 so I'll just half the Trump numbers for national poll and get to 18% (now you have votes for independents, etc, but presume that is an inconsequential percentage). So I guess my question is, where is the 6%? By my count that is ~18% of the voting public and could arguably be larger if Trump was truly the nominee (as right now that vote is split and I presume a lot of Cruz voters would vote Trump). http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollst...nal-gop-primary Also, no idea who Mercury polling are and for all I know they are a republican polling service, but thought this was an interesting stat in here on dems likely to vote for trump vs. repubs likely to vote for hillary (really small sample size too). http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/201...hillary-clinton Expressing support for someone in a telephone poll/survey versus likely caucus/primary voters in states like Iowa, NH and S.Carolina/Nevada are two very different things. Just like differentiating between "super motivated" supporters who would never vote for anyone else (were he to lose the GOP nomination) or would vote only if Trump as running as an independent. You have a huge number of Trump supporters who are more about what he represents than being ready to support all the other GOP candidates equally...on the other hand, you have huge numbers of GOP who will not support Trump were their 1st option or 2nd option to be taken off the board. I think it's fair to say he's drawing support from (let's split the difference between 18 and 6) 12% of the country, or one out of every 8. Now labeling them as "bad people" would be the same thing as Perot supporters being labeled as "crazy people"...there has to be a sense of separating the promise of a different kind of politics (the currently polarizing Dem vs. GOP) from the actual symbol of that movement itself. In the same sense, you can sympathize with or support the Occupy Wall Street movement without being a "slacker" or craving chaos and anarchy or whatever... The difference is "bad" people really believing the candidates mean what they say...those who don't know the difference or basically mimic or echo their family members' beliefs without thinking clearly on their own or consistently voting straight party tickets without even looking at races and issues...and those who ACTUALLY WANT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF THOSE POLICIES ENACTED. Here, I think that 12% Trump support gets cut by 50-75%....leaving the 3-6% "bad," although, even then, in their own minds they are justifying fear of foreigners or fear of Arabs (conflating them all with being terrorists or jihadists) or fear of Mexicans in a sort of "racial profiling" type of way.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 11:36 PM) Agree with 3/4. Bassitt was MLB ready with 5 starts under his belt in '14 and if the Sox had not traded for Samardzija, Bassitt would have been in the Sox rotation in '15 ahead of all the players you named. In fact Bassitt had 13 starts for Oakland in '15 with a 3.56 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 86 IP. Going into the '15 season: Montas and Danish were in AA, Johnson at AAA coming off a horrible '14 season, Fulmer wasn't even drafted yet, Adams was in Kanny. Going into 16: Montas will be at AAA, Danish repeating AA, Johnson in the majors for his second cup while we cross our fingers, Fulmer at AA, Adams at high A. Considering we all know the Sox could use some starting pitching depth, I wouldn't mind having a cheap, long term team controlled option such as Bassitt. Would be a better option than Latos, Fister and the post TJ surgery pitchers we see mentioned. I agree that Sox aren't missing out on Phegley, Semien or Ravelo. How many of us would have smashed our TV's last season watching Semien commit 35 errors? Yet still the 6th highest WAR (just a point or two off from Tulo and playing at one of the worst stadiums for offense in the AL). What about DRS or UZR? We had this debate about errors seemingly 15 years ago back and forth between Jose Valentin and Royce Clayton when Jose put up a 30+ error season. In the end, Valentin had a huge differential in total chances because of his range advantage, and he also recorded numerous outs with his arm strength that would have gone as "hits" with Clayton competently fielding those balls and not being able to get enough on the throws. We can't argue, for example, that Lawrie or Frazier (especially) are above-average defenders and then completely disregard their error totals, focusing only on their other advanced metrics. The same should apply in reverse to Semien. You also have to look at the error rate by month...did he improve or basically stay the same in terms of defensive performance over six full months? Was there improvement or regression? Let's just say if Semien and Bassitt were STILL in our system (and eligible), they'd clearly be some combination of #4-6 or 3-5 (depending on the belief in Adams' potential)....you could take those two, along with Adams, and be able to trade for almost any outfield bat left on the trade market (in the same way we were able to acquire Frazier). Instead, we're forced into a situation where we have to trade Anderson/Fulmer/Adams OR overpay a free agent...unless the contract demands come down to a point where they're no longer overpays. Even with Gordon and Span, nobody's arguing those are huge bargains or that they would be particularly happy if the White Sox had signed those two particular players to either deal.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 07:03 PM) We've done pretty well on that front. This was true with the players that we acquired from 2004-2006 (Dye, for example, or Thome) and less so as time went on. If you look at examples like Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Crede, Crain. By and large, we've had good health in recent years (across complementary or secondary players), but the times we have had health issues, the impact has been higher because they were often core pieces that were hurt and/or getting older. Then you have Eaton because of his style of play and Sale just for the torque on his body parts over time...not to mention Abreu's lower body issues caused by the sheer size of him.

He tries to make the big outfield assist or unnecessary throw more often at USCF, that's for sure... Whether it's related to lack of confidence in fielding the ball...that could be. It seems there are two separate issues though, clean/smooth throwing mechanics and just general instincts reading the bat off the ball (which is also related to positioning and confidence coming in versus going back to the wall). How many years did we watch a veteran in Jermaine Dye catch a ball back on his heels/going backward/flat-footed and then uncork a late throw to home plate that was impressive but was often too late due to the longer amount of time he took to unload the ball and poor fundamentals?

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 09:58 PM) What did we honestly give up in that package? lol. Semein- Can't field to save his life. Bassett- Had Montas, Danish, Johnson, Adams, & now Fullmer all in front of him. Phegley- Nothing more than a questionable backup catcher with 1 impressive minor league stint. Ravelo- Maybe the most promising prospect & not even in their top 10. I see nothing worth b****ing about. You can't discount the fact that the jury's still out on Semien as an everyday player. If he was on the White Sox and had the season he just had for Oakland, his trade value would have been higher than Micah and arguably Thompson simply because of the position he plays, if nothing else (and better offensive numbers arguably at USCF compared to the Coliseum). It's not so much individual players in this case, but the fact that our overall depth is decreasing and decreasing to the point where it's difficult to imagine a trade for any impact bat without giving up Anderson/Fulmer and Adams at the very least. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../qualified/true Semien had the 6th highest WAR among all qualified SS's in MLB at 2.7 and barely made the league minimum.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 07:45 PM) Perhaps a better way to describe this circumstance is that the Sox need a big bat, who happens to be a decent outfielder, because the outfield is the place where the Sox have room for an addition. Ideally, he should be able to play right field, because the other two outfielders who are on the roster are not qualified to play that position. That is why guys like Fowler and Parra are not good choices. They are not middle of the order, big run producers. Therefore, any suggestion of spending significant money, or sacrificing a draft pick, for such players simply does not make any sense. Parra makes more sense because wherever he plays, he's going to improve the defense (assuming last year with more of an anomaly) and he doesn't cost the draft pick, so it's more about how much are you willing to pay him...and how much is the improvement there versus adding a starting pitcher or SS to replace Saladino. With Fowler, he's going to cost you Samardzija's pick in the comp round, so essentially you're trading the rights to Fowler (who will get something like 3 years and $40-45 million) for the four players we dealt for Shark and you're losing $10-12 million of short and long-term impact from the lost draft pick, so it's actually costing you $50-60 million AND Semien/Bassit/Phegley/Ravelo if you look at inflows/outflows of talent onto the roster directly related to Shark. If you keep the draft pick, at least you can argue that's a fair rate of return for those four guys...at least it's an argument that has solid points on both sides. Not to mention Fowler's not an above-average defender in CF, and then you're forcing Eaton to move to RF or moving both outfielders to different positions. None of those would seem ideal.

Seems like only yesterday we had the humorous Sox Fest video panel with Avi, Eaton and his wife and a translator for Avi... I'm sure any player on the White Sox would probably say the same thing about bringing in Cespedes or Upton without first reflecting on what it would mean to one of their teammates...maybe with the outfield, it doesn't feel like impugning Garcia directly, Melky or even LaRoche as much because at least two of those guys would see their playing time cut arguably. Now if they were out there actively lobbying for the likes of Desmond, Alexei, Flores/Tejada, etc., to replace Saladino...that would be more of an issue.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 06:11 PM) A good case study would be to see how players wRC+ splits compare before and after leaving the Rockies. Take Tulo, Holliday, etc. and see how their road wRC+ changed being a Rockie, and in their new home. You could do it for guys like Morneau who became a Rockie after life elsewhere. Without actually doing the work, and buying into your second article, I'm guessing you find the home numbers comes down a bit, and the road numbers come up to a greater degree. This would mean overall wRC+ might actually come up after leaving Colorado. Except with Morneau it's hard to isolate and discoonect here from health-related issues. Maybe Cuddyer and Fowler as well...

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 01:22 PM) Which is what the RNC itself DID say after 2012. That and figuring how they got so far behind on tech, data management/donor rolls and social media. Despite Citizens United, they got trounced. All that soft money somehow weakened the party and made it self-destructive.

And that doesn't explain the huge popularity of Sanders' socialism/populism campaign. It's more dissatisaction with Hillary Clinton than Republicans demonizing and labelling every single candidate like Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Hart, Dukakis and Obama a liberal. The Democrats have more successfully come up with candidates who appealed to independent/moderate voters and didn't scare minorities to death on immigration...and the fact a lot of those voting for the GoP on social issues realized that economic issues were actually more important. Those are the voters Clinton tore away from Obama in the primaries, that Trump claims now...the ones with lower education level and diminished earnings prospects because most of those jobs have gone overseas and been replaced by $10-15 per hour wages. Of course, Clinton is the one who pushed NAFTA and FTAA.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 09:50 AM) Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 39m39 minutes ago Tigers have discussed yoenis, j-up, davis, fowler, desmond. Depends on $. may just go for platooner for LF tho (ie rebury) Some fear mongering for all of you who are terrified of the Tigers. Tyler Collins, Maybin and Gose for 2/3rds of an outfield won't work.

Well, that's discouraging. Best case scenario is probably $75-84 million for three years, that's $27.5 million per season splitting the difference. What's the most they've ever paid a player for one season? Pretty sure $16-17 million in 2012 for Peavy or one of Dunn's years...the most Dunn made was $15 million his last two seasons. Ordonez made $14 million in 2004, that would be the highest adjusted for inflation. Buehrle made $14 million for four seasons. Konerko at $13.5 million.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/161506558/13...sible-solutions Another Phi Rogers "spit-balling" column...hitting on a lot of familiar names we've been talking about. I guess the newest one would be the Mets trading either Flores or Tejada to a team looking for a SS, and the White Sox listed as a possibility. Hector Santiago for an outfielder. (Santiago for Avi Garcia, done!) Basically, everyone in the Dodgers' outfield going somewhere besides Puig or Pederson, including Alex Guerrero. Marisnick/Tucker Marcell Ozuna for pitching help, etc. Jay Bruce. Swisher/Bourn/Markakis Rusney Castillo out if the Red Sox are content to go with Holt, Bradley, Jr., and Betts. Another Cuban. And many more...

They prefer him until they actually have to vote...Cruz will win Iowa, and then Trump's going to be under a ton of pressure to do well in NH or his standing in the polls will start to fall. Of course, the next problem (but likely a good one for the establishment) is that Cruz is unlikely to weather the storm of being in first place for too long, with all the added media scrutiny that goes with it. Everything is still wide open. South Carolina is more the type of state you'd think would favor Trump, but he's still a Yankee/Northeasterner/Democrat and once a friend/ally of Hillary to them. On policy though, in terms of anti-immigration and anti-Arab sentiment, there's a lot more alignment in the South than NH or Iowa, where you have a huge sub-segment voting on religious beliefs...most of those caucus votes seemingly breaking in the direction of Cruz with his superior in-state/county by country organizational strength.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/11/nfl-tv-rat...f-local-markets Despite Donald Trump calling the NFL "soft" and the movie Concussion, not going anywhere soon...pretty incredible set of ratings facts and figures for the NFL broadcasts. PS: There was a good idea about MLB moving at least one of their weekend World Series or Championship Series games to that 4 p.m. EST start, especially on a Sunday.

The problem there is they would have no desire to add another outfielder in Garcia, especially in "win now" mode and not having the luxury of any more development years from their players...just depends on how desperate they are to rid themselves of Singleton I guess.