caulfield12

Fans didn't love Todd Frazier because of his numbers, though his numbers were good enough. They loved him for his spirit. To fans, Frazier was not a line item on a balance sheet. He wasn't a clean set of digits all in a row, given meaning by odd acronyms such as WAR and OPS and the delightful-sounding BABIP. Fans here didn't quantify Frazier or study him like he was an equation or mine his statistics for undiscovered lodes of "value''. They just enjoyed him. On and off the field. He gave them a reason to smile. And go to the ballpark. ... Todd Frazier brought fans in, because they thought they knew him and they liked what they thought they knew. Ditto Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Frazier wasn't numbers. Frazier was family. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/col...-fans/77627880/

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 29, 2015 -> 12:43 AM) I definitely think that's part of it. With so many outfielders available its easy for teams to play the bluff game. Caulfield. I can see KC having genuinely interest in Bruce due to his power, salary and limited commitment of two years but I doubt KC would give Jocketty two of their three top prospects. Of course Jocketty is aiming high like he should but how big of a market is there for Bruce? Jocketty has to come down in price if he seriously wants to move Bruce. Bruce fits their time frame perfectly, the next two years...but so do CarGo, Ethier/Crawford, Dickerson or Blackmon, etc. It's a buyer's market right now, at least in terms of outfielders. If I'm KC, I am not even looking at it like a two year deal...it's one year for $12.5 million and the $1 million buyout...because Bruce has fluctuated up and down so much the last five years. I'm also not parting with one of my top five prospects, let alone 2-3 prospects unless they're all lower tier guys. The Reds basically have ZERO purpose or rationale to keep Bruce and Phillips at this point...the falloff in attendance already started happening with Cueto, Leake and Frazier, etc. And they do still have Votto, he's going to be the only homegrown star left, like Freeman in ATL. Otherwise, I'm just going to pay Span/Jackson/Parra and not lose a draft pick, preserving the remainders of the farm system (after the Cueto and Zobrist deals) for the rebuild beginning in 2018.

Well, on one hand, the Royals already have a relationship with Jocketty due to the Cueto trade...and obviously the Reds are familiar with the KC system. That said, KC isn't going to give up very much talent...if anything (the asking price was Zach Wheeler supposedly last summer)...this is going to be more of a clearing out the closets and starting over thing for the Reds, who have already parted ways with Frazier and Chapman and look to move Bruce and Phillips as well. Considering the buyout, you're talking $13.5 million for one season, or only $1 million more than they wasted on Alex Rios. Bruce has such weird career numbers, though. He's had two huge years, with 4.5 WAR in 2010 and 5.1 WAR in 2013. If you average the other 5-6 years of his career, you're getting a WAR of something like 0.7 or 0.8. Over the last 5 years, you're looking at 1.6, with a mode of 1.4. Optimistically, that has a value of around $10-11 million, so they would be asking for $2-3 million back from CINCY and Bruce to save them the $11 million or whatever for the remainder of his 2016 salary. Otherwise, you're going after A.Jackson and Parra and piecing two outfield platoons together...allowing you to alternate Dyson (LH), Parra (LH) and Jackson, who's STILL only 28 years old and carries a 729 OPS against lefties over the last three years. Parra gives you a 777 against righties and Dyson a 703 against righties. On the plus side, if Parra's numbers recently are anomalies, you might still have the best defensive outfield in baseball and even more versatility. For a higher price, Denard Span has been even more dangerous against RHP, an 800 OPS over the last three years...and no QO attached, thus no pick lost. But he's probably going to cost in that $12-15 million range like Dexter Fowler (who also has the pick attached), so unless his market drops, Jackson and Parra are the two most logical choices. They won't go after Fowler since they need to start rebuilding for 2018 and beyond. Of course, the argument is that you might end up spending $15 million on Jackson/Parra, so why not spend $17.5 million on Alex Gordon. That's where you get into the length of the contract arguments, and cost/benefit of having Parra/Jackson for 2-3 seasons instead of Gordon for 4-5. Plus both those guys are age 28, and Gordon's four years older. And both similarly fit the mode of "defense first-minded" players. So you have three choices, for example: Bruce for one year + buyout=$13.5 million (+ Dyson/Orlando platoon) Parra/Dyson/Austin Jackson platoon system for 2-3 years (let's say $37.5-40 million as an estimate) Alex Gordon for 4-5 years and $70-90 million (+ Dyson/Orlando platoon) Orlando has almost even splits, 719 vs LHP/705 vs. RHP

It's a bit scary if Engel's our best outfield solution for the future (it's also indicative of how far Courtney Hawkins' stock has fallen). I realize he had a great AFL season, but let's wait until he puts up an 800+ OPS in Birmingham first.

With the way Close conducts negotiations, we might never know if the Sox offered or not, and what exactly was on the table...unless the leak comes from the Sox side. My own personal feeling is that the longer this drags on, the more likely it is that Gordon ends up elsewhere. It would also be pretty surprising if the White Sox made an offer on December 28th that just blew everyone else's out of the water...you get the feeling there will be 3-5 serious offers within a $5-15 million range of each other. If the Royals are within that range, maybe even if it's one year shorter but the average is comparable or a bit higher over 4 years, he'll probably end up staying. That said, there's been no indication that KC was even willing to go up to $60 million and 4 years, which isn't far off from Melky Cabrera or LaRoche and obviously is either just a PR offer and they have no intentions to retain him or they're lurking in the weeds trying to suppress the Gordon market and really have an intention to offer $15-20 million per season and at least four years. That would be 4/$70 million (a lot of current speculation is around 5/$88-92).

The calm before the storm?

The only thing close would be the White Sox trading Sale or possibly Abreu/Rodon. Not even Quintana. Of course, it would be perfectly logical in the case of the Pirates with all their minor league talent (especially pitching), Marte being almost as good as Cutch now and younger, Gerrit Cole and Liriano, Bell for 1B, Kang rehabbing, Polanco also has all the tools but hasn't fulfilled his promise and needs a development year...taking that step back, letting Alvarez and Walker go, probably trading Melancon and elevating Watson or even trading Watson at his peak as well and replacing him with the likes of another Jason Grilli or Melancon again. Rinse/repeat. The core of that team will be even stronger in 2017 and 2018...but the odds of being better than the Cubs and Cards in their own division aren't that great this season. It's the perfect "interim" strategy for a smaller market team where they still have a decent chance (and can add at the Break if necessary) but they're not doing anything desperate that will negatively impact their long-term core.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 05:08 PM) I just don't understand why they didn't take the Reds prospects You mean the Sox instead of Dodgers? ???

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/160525142/pr...ps-byron-buxton Surprised Buxton still had quite a few on his side after last year. The Angels are going to rue trading Newcomb...and surprised Manaea got one vote. Finally, how do the Rays keep finding so many young pitchers? Geez. Can't imagine if they had a $150 million payroll to work with...

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 03:29 PM) I take it the Nat's see Taylor as a fourth outfielder? Or back to minors like Avi potentially...appears they don't have enough with Span gone to get by with two big question marks. Need some more certainty/predictability in CF.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) Lmfao! Don't blame da Wang! What about her cousin, Peenkay Tang? She was impressive in The Interview dancing with fake Kim Jong Il (2nd reference today).

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 03:54 PM) If a deal were to happen, I wouldn't want DRob to be involved. A bullpen ending with Jones, Robertson, and Miller would be insanely fun to watch on a daily basis. Except we just went well over the projected budget and have EJ/Danks at the back end still...as well as Saladino, catcher, DH and RF as potential trouble areas, along with Lawrie at 2b from a defensive standpoint. Maybe that's enough offense with Frazier, LaRoche rebounding and better starts from Eaton and Cabrera...but you've still gotta score enough runs to protect those 1-2 run leads. What was the 2005 offense? Something like 9th out of 14 in runs scored. But we were still fourth in homers with 200 and 8th in OPS at 747. As we stand now, with that offense and the concerns with the back of the rotation (as opposed to the best pitching in the AL across the board in 2005), it MIGHT be enough to eke into the playoffs but it's still a long shot. If Fulmer's as good as expected, 2017 would really be the year to test it, though.

Proof positive someone is working in MLB industry today, haha. Was starting to think it was quiet in deference to Hendu, Bobby Dews and Strauss deaths all in one 24 hour period.

For an agent. Some would argue 3-3.5%, but fairly close.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/12/28/106...-add-outfielder Nationals looking for OF help but not connected to Big 3 here... A name we haven't heard much for a platoon is Will Venable, but you'd have to guess he is going to stay in NL. The other names are the typical Tier 2/3 ones...along with trading for Blackmon or CarGo (see StL).

The problem with extending Frazier and Lawrie to a lesser extent are the recurring arguments about a longer-term Gordon contract at age 32. Lawrie...hopefully he plays so well that it becomes an issue to legitimately worry about. At least we're not preemptively extending like with Teahen when it wasn't warranted.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 08:41 AM) I actually wouldn't write off any teams in the AL. Tampa Bay won 80 games despite being ravaged by injuries, and they have great pitching and defense. I also wouldn't be too surprised to see the A's compete. But to your point, should you only try to compete when you have a virtual guarantee at the playoffs? I don't think any AL team has a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs, it's a league full of parity. But does that mean you should only try to compete when you have a flawless team? I'll be very disappointed if the Sox don't land one of the Big 3, but if we do I think we have as much a chance to make the playoffs or win the division as anyone in the ALC. To your other point, yes Frazier, Lawrie and Melky are leaving after 2017, but nothing has changed about the future outlook on those positions since the offseason began, unless you believe Micah Johnson was going to be our starting 2B or Thompson a starting OF in 2018. Maybe we draft a college OF or 3B with our upcoming pick. Maybe Trey, May, or Engel are major-league ready by then. Maybe we resign Lawrie. A lot can happen in two years, I'll worry about that when the time comes. Would that be enough (the offseason so far) to get you to buy season tickets again if you'd cancelled after 2011, or at any point in the last three years? I wonder how many Sox fans felt confident enough to buy a smaller/split 2016 package as a Christmas gift?

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 28, 2015 -> 07:25 AM) I think they are competing for a wild card as currently constructed. If you add one of the outfielders, it's a definite playoff team. That's all fine and good in the NL. Everyone in the Central has a chance. You have Houston, Texas, LAA and the Mariners have spent a lot in recent years...so the A's are the only team we can eliminate. In the East, who doesn't have a shot at the playoffs? The Red Sox will be better, that's for sure. You have the Jays and Yankees. The Orioles have lots of money left to spend. So TB then? Two teams we can eliminate...that's it. Thirteen teams could make the playoffs, not the greatest odds with our current team...just like at the end of July last year. Similar logjam.

Basically, it's to establish a "normal" reading for anyone that takes the test. If, when they are re-tested again at some random point in the future, there are those baseline numbers to compare to, and any extreme divergences from those numbers should be much carefully examined through a battery of further more detailed testing designed to determine causation. At least that's my understanding, fwiw.

By the school of thought of NOT adding that big bat, the question is still when/how? Another fair to middling season with decreasing attendance trend (again) will somehow create more incentive to spend next season than there is now? And for whom? Carlos Gomez? There's an even bigger potential problem. Cleveland is already being favored by some to win the division and Minnesota has one of the best farm systems, so, assuming normal development curves, both of those teams are on the upswing and then you have the Royals with their core for the next two years and the Tigers basically have no other option with their current roster/payroll than to be "all in" as well for the next 2-3 seasons at least. Nobody would be shocked or surprised if they ended up with Gordon/Cespedes/Upton. If this team doesn't make any more significant additions, starts slowly and the Cubs come out of the gate flying...the White Sox will simply cease to exist except when it's time to pick apart the roster for June/July/August deadline deals. And what's really going to change between now and next offseason? Anderson and Fulmer will do so well that they look like future All-Stars in the minors? Well, as we all know, the first year is almost always an adjustment period for rookies, even the most talented. For every Bryant or Abreu, there are 50 Avi Garcia's or Javier Baezes. Rodon took a good 2-3 months to really get his feet solidly underneath him and start to believe that he belonged in the big leagues and to trust his stuff 100%. About the only situation you can imagine is dealing Quintana or Sale for bat/s, but that significantly weakens your rotation...even if Fulmer is ready in 2017, you have only two pitchers you can count on (whoever's left over from Sale/Quintana/Rodon), Carson and then EJ/???. So you're likely 1 if not 2 pitchers short of a full rotation. If those additions to the rotation don't come from the minor leagues (and Adams won't be ready quite yet unless he just has a huge breakout season), where does the money come from to buy them in free agency when even more money will be chasing even fewer impact players? Horrid and/or horrific next year's FA class has been described almost universally. So, even optimistically, you're only left with 2017 to compete because that means you're going to have to also replace Cabrera, Frazier and Lawrie, to name a few (after 2017)...and you're going to be relying on two rookies in huge positions that are almost make-or-break in SS (Anderson) and the starting rotation (Fulmer). That's the narrowest of narrow windows possible to exploit.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 27, 2015 -> 10:21 PM) Why? The White Sox, as currently constructed, still aren't a playoff team in my opinion. Frazier and Lawrie are nice upgrades, but catcher, shortstop, right field, and left field are all still potential holes, not to mention the lack of decent pitching depth. Not to mention DH...and counting on Lawrie to have chemistry right off the bat with whoever is playing SS from a defensive standpoint. On the plus side, Saladino can now trust Frazier on his right side, which should help give him more confidence, in the same way Alexei really took off at SS when Omar Vizquel was at 3B next to him.

Supposedly the Cardinals are posturing that they prefer the trade route (for the moment), specifically one of the three Rockies' outfielders (CarGo/Blackmon/Dickerson).

Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief Amy (about Amy Winehouse's career and battle with addictions/fame) Finder's Keepers (one of my Top Ten movies of the year now...too weird to be true story about the fight for possession of a man's foot that ended up in a BBQ smoker after amputation and was accidentally sold to someone who didn't want to give it up and tried to cash in on the events for fame/fortune) Three really high-quality documentaries. One of the most interesting things in the Scientology film was how they sabotaged Tom Cruise's relationship with Nicole Kidman and pushed him into a relationship with Iranian actress/model/biochemicist Nazanin Boniadi (who just happened to be one of my favorite Homeland characters). Also didn't know that Paul Haggis was a member for nearly 30 years.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 27, 2015 -> 02:20 PM) I just don't relish the idea of the Tigers getting Cespedes or Upton. That lineup would be really scary, if VMart comes back healthy: Iglesias Kinsler M. Cabrera V. Martinez Cespedes/Upton J. D. Martinez Castellanos Maybin McCann They could have 4 guys, 3 through 6, in the lineup, each drive in around 100 runs. The Sox lineup without that big bat, would look pretty weak, by comparison. Just get past Abreu and Frazier, and the opposition could breeze through the rest of the line up. However, put Cespedes or Upton in the Sox lineup, especially if the Tigers don't add a big bat, and the picture is entirely different. http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...cchia/77925514/ It's all going to come down to Verlander and Sanchez, imo.

Swimming and cycling come to mind, too...