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Everything posted by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 11:31 AM) I like how in one forum we're saying Leury Garcia, who is in the big leagues at age 23, is a poor return for Rios, and in another forum we're impressed at how well Eduardo Escobar is doing for the Twins. When Leury puts up an OPS of over 650 for 130+ at-bats and isn't more notable for what he did pitching in a game than anything else he's accomplished, you can get back to us on that one.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) That was great. Ventura #10 overall 1988 Thomas #7 overall 1989 Guillen - Intl FA Johnson acquired via trade from the Cardinals for Jose DeLeon who was received for the White Sox to return rule V pick Bobby Bonilla Cora - acquired via trade from Padres Kark - #14 overall 1982 McDowell - #5 overall 1987 Fernandez - #4 overall 1990 Alvarez - Intl FA Hernandez #16 overall 1986 It took a decade of sucking to build that core. Despite all the complaints about the new stadium, the timing was right in terms of where the team was positioned talent-wise going into the early 90's. Couldn't have been more the opposite in Minnesota, for example.
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The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 02:56 PM) http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/beane-a...wn-terms-052914 We traded 1 prospect for Quentin, who, himself, was a prospect. Early, williams traded off top prospects. Later, he just acquired too many mediocre players and our drafting wasn't good. I like Oak's philosophy - it's like we overreacted with "tools" after we drafted that stiff Broadway. Williams has always liked hard throwers...Koch, MacDougal and the like. I prefer Oak's approach. Ks are good, but you don't need to throw 96 to get them. I would take Nola...but only because I have a heavy distrust, perhaps bias, of drafting HS pitchers early. If there were a really top hitter, I'd take him first. Let's also remember that applied more to bullpen arms, with the irony being that Koch's arm was shot after so many appearances with the A's and Blue Jays...and was straight as an arrow at 93-94. And an overreaction to not having a flame-throwing traditional closer in Keith Foulke. It's what also led to the acquisition of guys like Aardsma, MacDougal, Sisco and Masset, who we must have read 25 quotes was a flamethrower coming up with the Rangers and then with the White Sox was sitting at 90-94 most of the time...and of course we later heard he was throwing that speed in order to control his stuff and get more movement/Don Cooper's influence, etc. Which led back to the "must get veterans, not projects" acquisitions of Dotel and Linebrink before 2008. I always found it amusing the best of all the lefty relievers that we auditioned at that time...and there were maybe 12-15 of them, ended up being traded rather quickly to the Red Sox, where he started a very long and fruitful loogy career. Javier Lopez. -
WGN America dropping Sox, other Chicago sports
caulfield12 replied to Heads22's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Wanne @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 05:38 PM) While true...that's not really endearing yourself very well to the locals. I don't see how that's possible... Is this immediately and from here on out? That being said...I think it sucks....especially during the winter for Bulls games! Maybe he means the net revenue (after losses were subtracted due to the White Sox and Cubs) were only $250,000? If that includes both the baseball teams, it's not boding well for either team getting large media rights deals going forward unless things turn around relatively quickly and product demand increases correspondingly. It's definitely going to force the Bulls and Sox to be bundled together ... using that leverage of co-ownership. -
The White Sox were wise to get out from under the Rios contract. That said, Leury Garcia's not every going to be a major contributor. It's nice to "spin" every trade in a positive fashion, or try to connect all the dots together (we didn't really need Davidson this year because of Conor's performance, acquiring Molina actually saved us money on the "bad" Santos deal, around $8.25 million that we could allocate to Abreu's signing bonus or other bad contracts like Keppinger/Dunn/Paulino/Downs, etc.) You can go around and around and around in circles. The pursuit of Tanaka is always going to stand as evidence that the money's there....when/if they want to spend it. And you'd have a real interesting argument about how much he would have helped THIS season, and what the cost to the team eventually would be if he breaks down in say, 2016-2018, when they're supposed to be right in the epicenter of their competitive window. With all the TJ surgeries this year, I'm still not convinced that giving Tanaka $175 million would be the best long-term move for the White Sox, despite his being one of the top five pitchers in baseball the first 2 months of the season.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) Remember when the Sox ruined Chris Sale by using him in the bullpen in 2011? It was idiotic, but that contract extension made up for it.
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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:36 AM) OK fine, they should have drafted better, nobody disagrees with that, but that doesn't change the reality that in July 2013, dumping Rios for Garcia was the best move because it allowed the Sox to get Abreu. You mean Abreu AND Santana/Jimenez, which would have had almost zero impact on our winning percentage at this point in the season...maybe 2 games above .500 or 2 games below.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) .....they wouldn't have been able to afford Abreu? They surely would have gotten yet another middle infielder without a place to play in Jurickson Profar, lol. Or Odor. With attendance being what it is this year, they were going to lose another $25-30 million spending on Rios and Peavy and have nothing left to show for it but a diminished capacity to spend next off-season.
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We're getting the same performance out of Noesi we would have gotten out of Peavy. Garcia got hurt. There's nothing you can do about that now, other than the coaching staff working with him on his fielding technique more carefully. Gillaspie's managed (for now) to cover up the (for now) Davidson "mistake." Belisario, Putnam, Petricka and Lindstrom have been about the equivalent of where we'd be with Addison Reed. The problem is that Viciedo and Eaton are both hitting terribly right now, and we don't have the quality in Sierra/DeAza to cover for Garcia's departure. So the question becomes would Rios' right around #40 in the majors oPS production in RF been enough to get the White Sox to a Wild Card? Highly doubtful.
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QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:23 AM) This. Not saying he knows anything but stone just said he really thinks Aiken goes one. I think there's a good chance too about Jackson going to the marlins as has been said becuase although jofer/Rodon is nice , they have pitching , they need more bats especially since Stanton will be gone sooner or later. Kolek?
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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:19 AM) I disagree, even though some guys still have low batting averages and what not, there are prospects heating up as of late The fact remains that only Anderson, maybe Hawkins and a very outside shot Davidson (if he goes on a huge homer streak at 3B) are MLB All-Star quality talents.
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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:49 AM) I would take Fernandez out if the top 5. Jose Fernandez or Felix Hernandez?
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:06 AM) The Sox basically exploited a tip off into getting a guy released, fixed the tip off, and now he is a middle of the rotation starter. That is why Don Cooper is a legend. But why can't we do that with hitters, haha? As much as we seem to be able to identify the best Cuban players to go after (although the jury's still out on Viciedo as of today), and seemed to be right about Tanaka as well (although we have no idea how long it will be before he breaks down)...why should it be so hard to do the same thing with high school and university position players? Conversely, we've even had a lot of success picking up hitters from other organizations like Quentin, DeAza (until this season), Gillaspie...but we have a devil of a time developing them internally. (Juries are still out on Eaton, Garcia and Davidson...with AJ Pollock making that Eaton move look as logical as, well, the White Sox moving Addison Reed). Until this recent Tim Anderson stretch, things looked completely hopeless...
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:30 AM) All righty folks, this is where all of the draft day discussion will happen. Let's start it off with predictions of who the White Sox end up with. I will guess Kolek. Hoping Kolek (assuming Aiken and Rodon are gone), ready for Nola, though.
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WGN America dropping Sox, other Chicago sports
caulfield12 replied to Heads22's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Surely, the presence of Harrelson in the booth has much more of a direct impact (both positively and negatively) on team marketing than anything Farmer and DJ do. They're actually okay together now. Nothing like the guys we've had in the past like John Rooney, Wayne Hagin...or even Dave Wills, now with the Rays. Just okay. And still way better than Chris Singleton on radio. The more interesting survey would be how well Harrelson does with both men and women under age 40...especially teenagers. I have a feeling a lot of the teenagers' parents grew up with Hawk and pass on their love of the Sox through his broadcasting anecdotes, but there's that other side....the kids growing up without an affiliation or without parents who are huge baseball fans. What do those kids think about him...and how is he perceived? I have a feeling those stories from the 50's, 60's and 70's are going to be of little interest to kids of today's generation, that are so addicted to their ipads, computer games and cell phones. -
QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) I've always seen Saladino's realistic comparison as Tony Graffanino to Sean Rodriguez if everything clicks. I've also seen Ben Zobrist's name thrown out there as well as a (hoped for) comp. If I'm wrong about Escobar not being able to sustain that level of success...then you can make the same arguments about Gillaspie, Flowers, Beckham, Davidson, etc. For Sonix, if he really believes that Saladino now has a better profile (than Escobar) to be a super utility guy in the majors based largely on his success this season in AAA, we'll just have to wait and see about that.
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The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:48 AM) I read another article that shows today they are overpaying in prospects to win now. That part of the recipe we don't need to copy. What are the examples? You would have said the same thing about the KW philosophy with the White Sox, but it led to a World Series trophy (most specifically, the Reed/Olivo/Morse deal for Garcia)...later, to the 2008 playoffs with the C. Carter/Quentin deal, along with McCarthy for Danks, the Floyd trade and signing Alexei. And we always have these arguments back and forth...and almost none of the prospects the White Sox traded every amounted to anything of significance over that entire time other than Gio Gonzalez. It's not like we are talking Phillips/Sizemore/Lee for Colon, or Andrus/Salty/Harrison/N.Feliz for Texeira. Of course, in the end, the system was essentially barren under KW...not so much decimated by trades, but by poor drafting/coaching/non-performance and a few injuries mixed in. -
The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/ast...e02ca9cd87bd7f9 Here's another side of the SABR revolution that's just starting to impact the game for the first time... On the field, the Astros shift their defenders into unusual positions to counteract hitter tendencies more than any other team, including in the minor leagues. They schedule minor league starting pitchers on altered and fluctuating rotation schedules, what they call a "modified tandem" system, a development strategy unique in baseball. Off the field, the Astros are said to handle contract negotiations and the timing of player promotions with a dehumanizing, analytics-based approach detected by some across their operation. "I don't think anybody's happy. I'm not," one Astros player said recently on the condition his identity not be revealed. "They just take out the human element of baseball. It's hard to play for a GM who just sees you as a number instead of a person. Jeff is experimenting with all of us." ..... "If you look at every organization, I think the trend is going toward sheer statistical-driven analysis, and I think that (the Astros) are certainly on the front lines of that," said former Astros shortstop Jed Lowrie, now with Oakland. "Baseball is kind of going through this tectonic shift, and there are people out there banging on tables saying, 'This is not the way the game's supposed to be played or evaluated.' But from a business standpoint, I get it. "It is a purely statistical analysis. I think you can't have that approach and expect to have good personal relations. That seems like a hard balance to strike, when you're judging someone strictly on numbers and nothing else, and I'm not talking about whether it's a good guy or a bad guy. But there are certain intangibles, and the perception is the numbers are trying to drive out (the importance of) those intangibles. (see The Will To Win/Hawk Harrelson or clutch discussions)" Sig Mejdal, the Astros' director of decision sciences, worked with Luhnow as his right-hand man in St. Louis, too, and criticism was relentless there. "In my experience, change in any industry is difficult," said Mejdal, who worked for NASA and has a background in cognitive psychology. "Supporting a change that doesn't feel right is extraordinarily difficult. … If they felt right, they would already have been done. "Human beings are risk-averse. It's hard to change and deal with all the pushback from change. Why weren't teams positioning their infielders different half a decade ago? I don't know. The data was all there." ...... The Astros saved themselves money. But the question is whether the team handles these matters in a way that fosters confidence, and how much they should care about that perception in a business worth half a billion dollars based on a core product of 25 players. "Players are people, but the Astros view them purely as property that can be evaluated through a computer program or a rigid set of criteria," one player agent said, echoing the comments of others. "They plug players into it to see what makes sense from a development or contractual perspective, and it does not engender a lot of goodwill in the player or agent community. "They wield service time like a sword (in contract extension negotiations) and basically tell a player, 'This is what you are worth to us, take it or leave it.' " Extension offers for players who have little or no major league experience have grown in popularity in recent years as teams try to get them at a bargain price, and the Astros have made several such offers. The premise is not what some agents said bothers them, but how the Astros approach dealings and appear to handle clients. Springer had an offer last year that reportedly was worth about $7 million guaranteed with the potential to earn more. The Astros also have made third baseman Matt Dominguez an offer worth $14.5 million for five years, plus two options, and outfielder Robbie Grossman received at least one similar offer - $13.5 million for six years plus two options, a person familiar with the offers said. None of the players accepted. (Interestingly, Grossman is now back in the minors, and Singleton accepted his deal in the past week). -
WGN America dropping Sox, other Chicago sports
caulfield12 replied to Heads22's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) Still waiting for all of the Cubs attendance articles... This will be year #6 in a row of falling attendance, and down about 20% from the peak. Also losing media outlets now? This would be front page news for the White Sox. The Chicago Cubs have scheduled a news conference for Thursday morning, where they are expected to announce the end of their relationship with WGN radio. The announcement would bring an end to the team’s 90-year relationship with WGN Radio, one of the longest running in American sports. According to the Chicago Sun-Times: “It has been all but imminent since October, but one of the longest broadcasting relationships in American sports could officially end Thursday morning. That’s when the Cubs have scheduled a news conference at Wrigley Field, where they’re expected to announce a new broadcast-rights deal with the CBS Radio family of stations, including WBBM-AM (780), WSCR-AM (670) and 105.9-FM.” -
We didn't have those metrics around 15 years ago when Jose Valentin was SS, but he was always known for having great range (and the arm strength) despite some ugly error totals (2000 in particular, which led to the Clayton disaster from KW). At that time, the only thing we really had to go off, and it wasn't scientific in the least, was total chances...and we always had that running debate back and forth about how many balls Clayton didn't get to. He made the routine plays, sure, but his lack of range kept him from getting to a ton of balls that Valentin could get to, and a lot of baserunners reached because Clayton didn't have a gun like Valentin or Uribe and they would beat out a lot of throws as well. It would be interesting to revisit that debate again, with modern analytical tools available.
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The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) He spent a majority of his career in Colorado But two seasons with the A's, as well. And they identified him largely based on his OBP skills...he has 27 walks in only 159 AB's this year (one every 5.89 AB's) in SD, offsetting the relatively pedestrian 6 homers and 21 RBI's. Playing half his games in Oakland knocked down his OPS to 753 and 720 (as part of a platoon) in 2012 and 2013...89 walks in 751 at-bats (one every 8.44), whereas in Colorado he had 142 walks in 1277 AB's (one every 9) and an 825-ish OPS in parts of four seasons. It is pretty incredible he went from a hitter's park to pitcher's park to another pitcher's park and upped his walk rate and OPS so much. We'll see how long it lasts, but he's been in the Top 10 for OPS all season long. -
The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:05 AM) And this is why I love statistics. I'm not trying to bring anything up, but this guy is probably going to say that they failed in "clutch" spots, but the fact of the matter is, those guys did well, period. What does he want them to do, get base hits in every at bat? That's simply not plausible. The Tigers lost in the playoffs because Leyland managed the bullpen like horses***. There's really no other reason. And there's now an "anti-Prince Fielder" bug catching in the Detroit media after the comments he's made, both after last season's disappointing playoffs and this year before the two teams (Rangers and Tigers) played recently and there was a possibility Prince might play at that time still. It's quite convenient to blame everything on a Fielder/Bonds/A-Rod type villain. -
The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 06:43 AM) Ok. So he pointed out they have poor production from a single spot in the batting order. That's his opinion as to why the run production is down. It really has nothing to do with acquiring "lesser talented" players in favor of the model that Oakland follows. Using the phrase "lesser talented" is a bit dangerous. Moss is 8th in the majors in OPS, Seth Smith (the quintessential A's player, even though he's now on the Padres) is 9th and Donaldson is 16th but 2nd in WAR to Tulowitzki. Arguably, Cespedes is as talented as any player in the game. If we use "lesser talented" to mean one or two tool players...or incorrectly assessed...or "undervalued," that's a whole different type of discussion. You're right though, the recent examples of Kazmir and Bartolo Colon (two more undervalued/"lesser talented" starters), when compared to the top of the line free agent line starters, or even Santana/Jimenez/Garza...support/reinforce this prevailing idea that the A's will never never outbid the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers. The only counter-example, once again, is Cespedes, and he has a very unique contract that lets him become a free agent after just 4 seasons. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...eat-team-exists Casey McGehee has been the cleanup hitter behind all-universe Giancarlo Stanton, and while he's driven in 36 runs he also has one home run. The Marlins are trying to compete with a cleanup hitter who has one home run. In 2014, that doesn't even sound that silly, but it's also a warning: He's not going to keep hitting .426 with runners in scoring position. (sounds a lot like Conor Gillaspie!) The Mariners beat the Braves 7-5 as the bullpen tossed six scoreless innings against the hitting-impaired Braves (that's the first-place Braves). The Mariners are 30-28, essentially tied with the 29-27 Orioles for the second wild card. This is a team whose DHs are hitting .189 and its first basemen .218. And they have a better run differential than the Tigers. It's that kind of season. A week ago, every Mets fan was fed up and wanted manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson fired. The Mets were a win away from reaching .500 on Tuesday before suffering a walk-off loss to the Cubs. Now Mets fans are asking who they should be going after at the trade deadline instead of who they should be trading away. It is that kind of season, where one good week makes a team interesting again. Like the Indians. A little five-game winning streak has pushed them up to 29-30. That means they're in the playoff race. They beat the World Series champion Red Sox, who featured a lineup with first baseman Brock Holt, right fielder Alex Hassan and shortstop Jonathan Herrera. The Red Sox are 27-30 and happy to be there after that 10-game losing streak. And so on. The Royals have two home runs combined from their first basemen and DHs (mostly Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler) and yet they're 28-30 after beating the Cardinals 8-7. That's the 30-29 Cardinals, a team barely better than a team that has two home runs from first base and DH. Yes, that kind of season. Parity or mediocrity? Do you like it? In some ways, isn't this what the sabermetric revolution has wrought? As front offices match each other on multiple fronts -- evaluating players correctly, spending money in an efficient manner -- and Selig has chipped away at some of the financial advantages of the bigger markets, isn't this the inevitable result? That playoff berths will be determined by whether Casey McGehee hits well all season with runners in scoring position? I'm reminded of what a friend told me about the Mets-Phillies games this weekend, when they played consecutive games of 14, 14 and 11 innings. I asked him if it was exciting baseball. "It was terrible baseball," he said. In the midst of all this are the Oakland A's. The A's just creamed the second-place Angels in three straight games and Tuesday night they played a good game at Yankee Stadium, scoring a run in the eighth off nearly untouchable Dellin Betances to tie it and then three more in the 10th. Brandon Moss led off the 10th with a home run, his second of the game and the A's would tack on two more runs. To me, the A's -- even more than the Giants -- are the one team in baseball without an obvious weakness. Moss is a legit masher in the middle of the lineup, with 15 home runs and a .598 slugging percentage. Third baseman Josh Donaldson is an MVP candidate. Scott Kazmir, who pitched well in this game, has been great in the rotation behind Sonny Gray. The defense is solid, the bullpen is good (other than deposed closer Jim Johnson) and the manager doesn't do ridiculous things like bat Endy Chavez leadoff or Wil Nieves second. In this season of parity, we may have just one great team. -
QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 06:30 AM) They are nothing alike. The second bolded part is exactly why they are not alike. Curious as to why they even come up as comparisons to each other. Saladino has a much higher upside, even as a super utility player, than what Escobar brings Not referring to the HISTORICAL, fielding-only version of Escobar, but the .781 OPS, 15 doubles in 130+ ab's version. THIS year. Career-wise, he's at only .646, or basically what Gordon Beckham has produced the past 3 seasons, more or less. A slightly better version of Andy Gonzalez, maybe. But, if you honestly believe Saladino can come up this season and put up those numbers, then he should be starting somewhere in the White Sox line-up on a nearly everyday basis.
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The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones. If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs. It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player. Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base. This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations. Well, one writer with the Detroit Free Press is apparently blaming their playoff problems on two specific positions in the batting order...not pitching, not shaky bullpen or fielding issues. The Tigers are 27th in the majors in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) from the fifth spot in the batting order. Their RBI production ranks 18th overall in the majors. They rank 28th in RBI production and OPS from the sixth spot. That’s the biggest problem with this team. That’s why they lost Tuesday. It’s why they’ve failed in the playoffs the past two years. As great as the Prince Fielder trade was for the Tigers in unloading a bad contract — as well as acquiring Ian Kinsler — it created another hole in a batting order that already was challenged at providing run production. Victor Martinez has performed at an All-Star level replacing Fielder in the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera. But it created another hole in the lineup that Austin Jackson and others haven’t adequately filled. Blaming the bullpen for the Tigers’ recent inconsistencies might make the panicked feel a little better, but it doesn’t address the real issues facing this team if they’re indeed a serious championship contender. Drew Sharp (freep.com/sports)
