caulfield12

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:45 PM) Chris is under contract for 1 less year than Quintana, but he's put up 5.1 and 5.3 fWAR the last 2 years. If you believe Sale will repeat his last year, then Quintana is more valuable than Sale, hands down, but the difference is that Sale missed 4 weeks last year. If Sale was healthy all year last year with no difference in performance, he's a >7 fWAR pitcher, but we haven't seen that from him yet. It seems more likely with him than Quintana but that's where health comes in. But really, a good rule of thumb is...if you say "God no" to any trade proposal involving sale, you should say the exact same thing about Quintana. Sale should outperform Jose but he seems a higher injury risk based on his record, so if you weigh them about the same for trade value, Sale's trade Value and Quintana's trade value should be close enough that they're exchangeable. So, would you trade Sale as the key piece in a deal involving Jay Bruce? Literally there's no deal I can put together with the Reds roster that works, not with Cueto that close to FA. I wouldn't trade Sale as the key piece for Votto, so I wouldn't trade Quintana as the key piece for Votto. Their total value to the franchise is just about that close. The only reason you'd trade either of them is to remove the injury risk, and from the perspective of this thread, if you're worried about injury risk, how confident are you about a guy who struggled with knee injuries last year? This is approaching silly. No one with a lick of sense would trade Sale for a deal with Bruce as the centerpiece, so it's equally silly to trade Quintana for a package around him, let alone Quintana+. It's fine to take that kind of risk with a Thome or Dye because you're buying on a dip, especially with a FA coming off a down year or injury. The problem is the Reds aren't going to sell low on any of those guys, so a trade becomes virtually impossible. Of course, the risk is buying veterans like Keppinger, Duke and LaRoche at high points when the odds are good they won't be able to sustain that level of success. At least they're mitigating risk by not spreading it out over 4-5 seasons with these signings. There's that. They're not franchise-altering missteps like Dunn and Danks.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 10:44 PM) Thing about Ethier is that the Sox don't really need another lefty platoon hitter at this point. In fact, someone to platoon with Laroche would be helpful. They will have to decide in the next couple of weeks whether Viciedo's worth more or less the same ($4-4.5 million) as DeAza and Beckham in that role...assuming they find a corner of. They've got Markakis, Cruz, Tomas, Torii Hunter, Me. Cabrera, Aoki and Rasmus remaining on the board.

C.Rondon in 2015? Just wow. It didn't work to carry Brian Anderson in 2006 when we had one of the best offenses in the league...andRondon wouldn't come close to Anderson's numbers offensively. Leury Garcia would make fewer errors than Rondon and nobody wants to see him on the roster even.

Except pitchers have a much higher likelihood of career-threatening injuries than position players. Sure you can come back eventually from TJ...and Stanton almost had his career ended...but shoulder/labrum injuries are killers It's the age old argument about a pitcher with 32 starts vs. 150+ games from an everyday player...especially at SS or CF.

QUOTE (robinventura23 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 08:43 PM) Maybe Justin Upton is an idea as well. Multiply Heyward's cost by 1.5 at least. For a one year, desperation go for it season? That would be the COMPLETELY the opposite of everything Hahn has preached for three seasons at the helm.

QUOTE (Baron @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 08:40 PM) I'm thinking we sign Aoki The $7 million price tag fits but will he provide enough impact? He's incredibly streaky offensively and completely unorthodox defensively...albeit he usually gets the job done. It would be an upgrade over Garcia who would probably move to LF. But nobody will be dreaming at night like KW promised.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 08:33 PM) Why is that?? The dollar figures just don't add up with any of those guys to also be able to address our remaining pitching issues...without trading Alexei...which now makes little or no sense in the context of the LaRoche deal. Crawford or Ethier and money for a Danks, that's much more likely.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 08:28 PM) Let's hope he can because as a regular, that's the only above average skill he has. And that's the same point about Victor, Dunn, Abreu or LaRoche....and we've clearly upgraded 1b defensively when Abreu has to rest/is ouchy. There's not a single player acquisition (and price tag) we couldn't all pick apart. We have started an interesting trend of integrating more NL guys too, fwiw. Eaton, Davidson, Duke...now LaRoche.

Kemp, Bruce and Me.Cabrera are all unrealistic at this point.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 07:33 PM) Tomas might possible take a 4/5 year deal (which won't be over 100) so he can enter free agency at 28/29 and have a chance at at a 6-7 year deal In the end no agent will leave a $90-100 million deal on the table for a completely unproven player internationally.

If LaRoche is getting that much at his age, Cabrera will easily be $15-17 million per season. I don't see a Headley move fitting here, either. Catcher and 3b are secondary to the pitching issues remaining as well as LF.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 07:24 PM) I dig it, thought after VMart he made the most sense. Now LF doesn't necessarily have to a LH hitter....Tomas? Way too expensive for on the job training at $100 million or so. They're taking the smarter approach...allocating the money across five players instead of just one or two. It won't drive pre-season sales as much as a big splashy signing but it will lead to a better overall team imo.

Interesting. Doesn't make any sense to go halfway in now or this signing is mostly wasted on just 2016. You could see the Danks/Ethier move back in play...trading Alexei makes less sense now. They could go Rasmus (two years)/any closer not named Robertson for 2-3 years/Volquez or Brett Anderson and be fairly close to $40 million in new spending. There's no way they can afford M.Cabrera and still have enough left for two more pitchers.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 05:25 PM) Well, to be fair, for the same term, it would be more like $60 million more Then you would be left with the same issues the Angels and Dodgers are having with Hamilton, Pujols, Ethier, Kemp and Crawford.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:27 AM) Im not sure there is much of interest in next years crop that fit the plan besides Upton and Zimmerman IMO. Heyward. Fister maybe. Or Span.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 01:47 AM) He's basically coming for nothing. Again 8-10 million is nothing today. Sox could have had a 28 year old guy who knows how to hit for NOTHING. What the hell did they pay Keppinger? Since the Sox can't compete for highly priced free agents, he would have been a perfect gamble. He's only 28. We've had slow as molasses type guys before. I think he would have looked great in our lineup if we are serious about ever winning again. WHo the hell are the Sox going to sign? They can't afford anybody hardly. Beane is an EXPERT. He is the Sabes god and he wanted Butler. I think this is sad the Sox obviously had zero interest. I really truly don't think Butler is gonna stop hitting at 28. Cell is perfect park for him. The arguments about Butler are essentially the same as the ones surrounding Rasmus. Butler's more one-dimensional, of course reliably consistent offensively before this season but doesn't have a defensive position...Rasmus can play all 3 OF positions, and play the corners at above-average level...and has at least a 50/50 chance of outproducing Butler offensively going forward. THE BIGGEST factor is we need to find a LH hitter from either LF or DH. We could sign Morse for about the same or less than Butler and use Cabrera or Rasmus in LF, it's the same argument because Morse was much more productive offensively than Butler. Neither should be in the field. Probably the same with Torii Hunter as well.

The problem is Cincy Reds fans would freak out because Bruce and Latos are "name" players and Quintana's virtually unknown except to baseball insiders. I'm not even sure the Reds could deal with the PR fallout.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 12:49 AM) There is a possibility of an expensive splash with the budget I've heard however I don't think they are set on outbidding other teams. Which means you can essentially forget about any of the "premium" free agents in the top 10-20, and that probably includes Melky Cabrera.

Okay, Bruce is going to cost $37.5 million for the next three years, assuming they don't buy out his 2017 contract. But aren't Leake/Latos/Kennedy going to become free agents? If they COULD extend Latos before FA, then the Reds are going to ask for a pretty good package of minor leaguers... So it would essentially be like trading 3 years of "relatively affordable" Bruce, 3-4 expensive years of Latos (with the extension) for Quintana's six super affordable years and at least one significant minor leaguer (Danish, Montas, Anderson...possibly Hawkins).

He will be remembered for his goggles and pitching pretty well against his former team. And Blow-a-savio. TUC quote.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) I think the Sox blew it not getting involved with Billy Butler. He's cheap in today's standards and a genius like Beane was willing to go three years. He'd have been potentially dandy in the hitter-friendly Cell. I'm not saying Billy is a god, but it's the Sox type of signing. Taking a chance on a guy who had a bad year. He's only 28. He could have possibly gone on a nice six-year run on the South Side. He finally elevates a bit and we might have had a good DH. Also would have been nice to have him in 19 games a year vs. KC. Now I could be wrong if Billy gets fat and continues to not elevate, but I think if the Sox are gonna continue to be a small market team like they have been payroll wise, this signing made a lot of sense. Go after the 8-10 million buck a year guys. I'd say this is a fail by Hahn. Cause he's not going to get any of the mega contract type guys. p.s. I'm in favor of acquiring Torii Hunter now. Yes he's old, but same reasoning as Butler. Figure you can get him 6-10 million a year for two years or one year and an option year. Hunter is too old to play the OF, but sadly he's probably better than Avisail nevertheless. If they were trying to win THIS season (like the Royals), it MIGHT make sense. Paying him when he's 40-42 and expecting his recent production to continue is downright insanity.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 08:07 PM) Gesell is just not a very good player. Iowa has a very good frontcourt, but a poor backcourt. They're going to miss Marble, even though he was perceived by some to be a selfish/me first player. One thing he could do well was create his own shot off the dribble...or get to the rim when the offense broke down. They're hoping Dickerson and Clemmons can pick up the slack, and some of it's going to have to come from Oglesby consistently hitting 3's from outside to open up lanes by spreading out the defense to keep them from packing down on White/Olaseni/Woodbury.

Some people in South Florida (and some people in my inbox) believe that Loria is setting up a future sale of the Marlins. Stanton's backloaded deal helps Loria and the Marlins make money in the immediate future. And starting next year, Loria could sell the team without having to give any of the profits back to the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County. Had he sold in 2009, for instance, 18 percent of the profits would have gone to the government. Some fans theorize that Loria could enjoy the cheaper years of Stanton, then sell the team before Stanton's opt-out date and not care about what happens to the Marlins and/or Stanton after that. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...-180526965.html

So then they're also looking at guys like Fister, Zimmerman, Shark, Price, Latos...pretty much every pitcher that will be a FA after 2015, with the caveat of course being able to convince a player in the same situation as Heyward with the Cards next year not to go out onto the open market and offer his services to the highest bidder.

QUOTE (Special K @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 10:08 PM) Not the right plac for this, I know, so please excuse me while i digress, but, is there any indication sox are looking at Hanley? Feel like adding him and a melky or Rasmus would make us instant contenders.... Not at the speculated dollar levels of $80-120 million. If the numbers were in the 50's or 60's, I think they'd definitely have to give it strong consideration.