Ozzie Ball

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Mar 14, 2010 -> 09:05 PM) I think he has a pretty nice slider to back up his fastball. That was my finding based on his AFL work. Whether he's showing it here or not I couldn't say.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 11, 2010 -> 07:40 PM) And it's not like Sandberg's here either, so there's no one I care about unless the Barons visit. Maybe get to scope out that 19 year old Cubs SS. Probably end up catching them when they come back in August as well, but we'll worry about that in af ew months. You may get Hak-Ju Lee coming through there at some point also, I'd be really interested to see him. Supposedly he unbelievably good defensively at short.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Mar 10, 2010 -> 10:05 PM) Great read Dan. Ya Leesman is a guy I like alot, especially with the increased velocity on his fastball from where he was drafted to now. One guy who wasn't mentioned who is worth keeping an eye on as well is Santos Rodriguez. Dude can really dial it up himself. Still raw, but is an interesting prospect. Should be interesting to see not only if he fills out his 6'5 frame, but if the sox like him as a SP or RP. Rodriguez will be in with the relievers. There was some talk of him starting last year but it didn't happen, I'd say the chance of seeing him in that role now are pretty slim, he only has one secondary pitch of note.

QUOTE (False Alarm @ Mar 10, 2010 -> 03:12 AM) i thought silverio was actually like 31 and the visa problems were because of his previous falsified age. not sure though. The initial rumor was that he had falsified his age. I never heard 31 specifically, but it was generally thought that he was older than his listed age. The demotion to the DSL then sparked the visa issue speculation, which only fueled the rumors of age falsification. To my knowledge nothing was ever confirmed (or denied), and since players get a suspension now for falsifying their age, if anything concrete had been found, he would have been suspended and we would have heard about it. That hasn't happened, so either his listed age is legit, or the investigation has taken more than 2 years. Personally I think the ST invite is an extremely positive thing.

An interesting read from Garrett Broshuis on his retirement: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...010/269589.html

QUOTE (Crash73 @ Mar 4, 2010 -> 05:44 PM) I stopped reading after I saw Joe Mauer that Low on the list. How is he not in the top 5? Yeah reading sucks. Making uninformed statements is much better. The rankings have a age factor and are based off of the previous 3 years of performance, not just last year. He's 35 points behind King Felix at the top of the list, for example, but is losing 60 age points to him, he's losing 80 age points to Sandoval and 100 to Justin Upton but is only 23 and 16 points behind them respectively.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Mar 4, 2010 -> 03:16 AM) Jeff, I know you like sabremetrics, but man my head hurts after reading that Bill James stuff. Haha yeah, it can take some getting your head around. That's part of what I enjoy about it though, going through all the methodology involved, challenging the conventional wisdom's etc. etc. QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 4, 2010 -> 08:15 AM) Not a subscriber . I would paste it to you in a pm (secretly...), but the formatting on that site is weird and it would probably take me an hour to get it readable.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 4, 2010 -> 01:25 PM) So, the prospect score was based on who you have in one person's top 50 prospect list? Doesn't that seem like an absurdly narrow evaluation method? Well, Mayo's ranking aren't his own, he just polls the opinions of scouts. But you're right, a better way to do it would be to aggregate the top 50's from all of the respectable publications. Then again, maybe James has gone back and looked at the previous rankings and found Mayo to be the most accurate.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Mar 4, 2010 -> 02:27 AM) Our prospect score was 0? lol Here how the prospect scores were devised: The article was very interesting and one of the few things on Bill James' site worth reading, here's the direct link: http://www.billjamesonline.net/ArticleCont...Code=James01009

The White Sox have the 2nd highest pitching score, behind only the Dodgers. Their prospects score was 0. Danks was the highest scoring player for the Sox.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Feb 28, 2010 -> 02:58 PM) They could hit Kanny by mid season, but I was giving a conservative projection for them to start 2010. If they're in rookie ball they won't start until mid season. I think Holmberg is the more prepared of the two for Low-A, Thompson could get abused if he starts with Kannapolis.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 10:18 PM) IMO, advanced stats are not particularly useful for evaluating players below the AA level. There are just too many variables (inconsistencies in competition, talent, ballparks, small samples, etc. etc.) to determine whether the info they provide is valid. My rule of thumb... Below AA... tools and player development evaluations >>> stats. AA and higher... stats are increasingly useful for evaluations and comparisons. I think stats have a place at basically every pro level, particularly full season leagues. It would be foolish to rely on them solely, of course, especially for the younger, lesser developed players. I think putting all of your emphasis on scouting is a little naive, it's not like scouting is a surefire art form after all. A healthy mix of the two is the way to go in my opinion.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 09:58 PM) That said, I think you're too harsh. I would expect his BABIP to be a little higher than normal throughout his career due to his speed. Throw in weaker defenses in low-A and you have two reasons to expect a higher BABIP. So, yes, it appears he still got a little lucky and yes, he struck out too much. However, I don't think you can say he should have hit .240. That luck adjusted line regressed his BABIP to .361, so it is taking into account the likelihood that Mitchell with have significantly above average BABIP (.330-.340 range), with extra adjustment for poor defense. His strikeout rate was just that bad, and obviously it was a small sample size, but if Mitchell does start at Birmingham he could fall flat on his face.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 03:25 PM) Besides, I don't think BABIP has much validity/weight in the low minors. More or less validity than batting average? If less validity, how do you figure?

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 26, 2010 -> 06:24 AM) I don't see any chance of him repeating at Kanny. He hit .300 there with a .417 OBP and .850 OPS in his 34 games there. I think he is basically passed that league. I think W-S is the obvious choice, but I think there is an outside chance he starts in AA. He also had a .453! BABIP and a 34.8! K%. He was a combination of very lucky and bad and it leaves everything thinking that he was actually good. The BB% was very good (16.5%), but that's it. Luck adjusted line? .239/.371/.361.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Feb 24, 2010 -> 03:43 AM) twitter.com/SoxNet twitter.com/FutureSox FOLLOW This is some good advice.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Feb 21, 2010 -> 07:19 AM) Why is Ozzie not an option? This would be my vote. But since he's not an option I'll go with Damon because he'll be playing every day.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 15, 2010 -> 01:16 AM) Its a large downgrade on paper. You have a guy who was crucial for them last season leaving town and you are sliding an NL west pitcher into the rotation. It is? Jackson 09: FIP- 4.28 xFIP- 4.39 tERA- 4.37 Scherzer 09: FIP- 3.87 xFIP- 3.88 tERA- 4.12 Jackson 2010 projections: Bill James- 4.75 ERA (4.72 FIP) CHONE- 4.35 ERA (4.33 FIP) Marcel- 4.33 ERA (4.63 FIP) Scherzer 2010 projections: Bill James- 3.80 ERA (3.58 FIP) CHONE- 4.27 ERA (4.00 FIP) Marcel- 4.01 ERA (3.93 FIP) Talent wise Scherzer is much better. He does bring injury issues that Jackson doesn't and it's yet to be seen how he handles 200 IP and the American League, but I don't see how you can say he's a "large downgrade" from Jackson.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Feb 7, 2010 -> 05:51 AM) Harper is a a different story. You do not pass up on this kid, he has all the raw potential in the world. If he falls to 13 you tell Boras you'll pay him above slot and around top ten money, but nothing more. That would be pointless though. Boras would just laugh in your face, send Harper back to JUCO and wait for someone to give him $7m+ and a Major Leaue deal next year.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Feb 7, 2010 -> 02:19 AM) Andy does great work. I'm looking forward to the draft notebook. In regards to the draft, I would be shocked if they don't use their first round pick on a pitcher. The organization has stated that pitching will be their focus in the upcoming draft, and rightfully so. There isn't any advanced (impact) pitching talent beyond Hudson. Luckily the strength of this years class seems to be in the arms. Quite a few intriguing prep arms at the top of the class and plenty of college arms with decent upside as well. It's still way too early for mocks, but I'm betting on a higher upside college arm taken with the the 13th pick. Names that could be available at that point are Jesse Hahn, Deck McGuire, Drew Pomeranz, Alex Wimmers, Brandon Workman, Chris Sale, Kyle Blair, and Chad Bettis. Taking a prep arm would be unexpected, but I'm a huge fan of DeAndre Smelter and his nasty splitter, as well as a Dylan Covey with that hammer curve. Clearly all of this is subject to change and the board will likely look completely different by June, but draft talk is fun, especially with college ball starting in a few weeks. Yeah Andy's site is great, his draft notebook is a must purchase for me. I really like Deck McGuire at this point. Big frame allows him to pitch on a steep downwards plane, very good fastball, two good breakers and an effective change. That works for me. A good year probably cements his place in the top 10 though.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Feb 7, 2010 -> 05:39 AM) You mean if the consensus #1 pick of the draft slips to #13 should we draft him. Um, yes? Do they, not should they. Completely different things. Should they draft him in that situation? Hell yes. Would they? Almost certainly not. The Sox haven't shown any propensity for drafting the tough signability guys or dealing with Boras.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 2, 2010 -> 09:10 PM) Didn't one publication have Hudson listed at the second best pitching prospect? Yeah, Project Prospect did. They've backed off it since then though. He's not on their top 25 prospects list which puts him behind at least 6 other pitchers.

From Law's chat: bill (St. Louis) hudson's ceiling as a starter for Whitesox Klaw (1:11 PM) 4 or 5. Dan Hudson (Chicago) I need an explanation on why I didn't make your top 100. I dominated every league in existence last season! Klaw (1:12 PM) With average stuff at best. And I'm sorry, what a D1 college product did in A-ball - especially low-A - is just not that exciting. Unless he stunk, in which case, he's got one food in the discard pile.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2010 -> 05:57 PM) Hudson not even in the Top 100? Yikes. His White Sox top 10: Chicago White Sox 1. Tyler Flowers, C 2. Jared Mitchell, CF/RF 3. Dan Hudson, RHP 4. Jordan Danks, OF 5. Trayce Thompson, OF 6. Brent Morel, 3B 7. Dayan Viciedo, 3B/1B/DH 8. David Holmberg, LHP 9. Miguel Gonzalez, C 10. Nathan Jones, RHP

Law's top 100 is up. No Hudson, Flowers at 58 and Mitchell at 95.