Ozzie Ball

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 13, 2010 -> 02:25 AM) If they're going to spend some extra money to get better, I'd like to see Johnny Damon join the team. I think he'd be a wise investment if they can talk him into a one year deal. Pierre and Damon batting 1-2 in either order, then Beckham and Quentin batting 3-4...that would be nice. Damon/Beckham/Quentin works great for me at the top of the order. Pierre should bat 9th. I really don't understand why anyone wants him leading off. He's our worst hitter, so we give him the most PA's? Seems completely devoid of logic.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 10, 2010 -> 04:09 PM) People keep saying we need left-handed power. What's interesting though...our hottest hitter second half last year mightve been Kotsay, who's currently slotted to spell people as a LH bat. Meanwhile it's from the right side where we dont have a proven guy who can step in. Andruw Jones had a slight '09 bounceback year but in a limited sample size. I suppose there's Flowers too if he makes the team. If you're expecting Mark Kotsay, who hasn't been a good player in three years, to play like he did with the Sox last year over a full season, then I think you're going to be wildly disappointed. There's a chance it happens, sure, but it's far more likely that we see 06-08 Mark Kotsay and that ain't gonna cut it at DH.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 10, 2010 -> 04:14 PM) well i guess it doesn't matter...we have PIERRE! He can STEAL home! I'm hoping that a rule is brought in which will allow all players named Juan Pierre to steal 1st base. Then we may have a player.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jan 10, 2010 -> 03:27 PM) Why doesnt Ozzie want a left handed power hitter? Strikeouts apparently negate any value that power holds. Also he's not quick OR grindy.

QUOTE (since56 @ Jan 10, 2010 -> 02:55 PM) Branyon? No way, not what Ozzie wants. This will probably get laughed at, but how about Vizquel and bat him second? Vizquel's only plus for pretty much his whole career has been his defense. DHing him would be moronic. Then again, our manager is Ozzie Guillen, so I guess it's a near certainty to happen.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2010 -> 04:09 PM) I think Getz is going to be a legitimately solid player. Good OBP, probably hit closer to .300 than he did this year, steal a good number of bases. I think Getz is more or less maxed out. Maybe he ends up as a career .275 hitter rather than the .261 he hit this year but he doesn't have the skillset of a .300 hitter and I'd be very surprised if he ever hits for power or plays gold glove caliber defense. Getz screams backup infielder to me, and not even a particularly good backup infielder at that.

QUOTE (JuiceCruz16 @ Jan 5, 2010 -> 07:01 PM) Nick Swisher was not very good for the Yankees either. He had a good start, and pretty much sucked ass from there on out. The Yanks can have him if that is his bounceback year! Pre All-Star break: .237/.360/.464 (.824) Post All-Star break: .263/.384/.540 (.924) But why should we look at facts when we can pull our opinions out of thin air? His numbers with the Yankees were at least in line with his Oakland numbers, if not better. If you want to argue whether he was a good player in Oakland, then that's another debate, but he did bounce back with the Yankees and he was very good. His 3.5 WAR would have ranked 1st amongst our offensive players and 2nd overall behind Floyd.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jan 5, 2010 -> 06:06 PM) I might be in the minority, but I would be disappointed if we brought in Cust. I know his power/OBP numbers look good on a stat sheet, but this is a good example of how stats don't tell the whole story. In a close game, if you had a runner on third with one out, or a runner on second with two out, is Jack Freaking Cust really a guy you want with the bat in his hands? He's a 31-year-old with a career .239 batting average. He can walk, but he doesn't have much speed (4 stolen bases... in his CAREER) and is not a better baserunner than even Jim Thome. His one advantage is that a bunch of his lazy fly balls that were outs in Oakland will travel over the fence at the Cell. But how is he any different than Nick Swisher? Low average, high OBP guy who K's a lot and projects to "improve" by getting out of Oakland. Swisher was the better player, and got run out of town here, how the heck is Cust going to make it? PASS. Jack Cust is a Ron Schueler signing. KW will bring in a real baseball player. I think trying to account for every possible scenario is an impossible and therefore pointless exercise. Of course it would be ideal to have a .300+ hitter at the plate in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, a runner on 2nd and in a tie game. If you're setting your team up every day to account for that situation, however, you're going to lose out in the long run. If I'm a GM, I'm filling my team with players who are going to make outs at the lowest rate while bringing some power to picture. Why? Because OPS and wOBA are much better run predictors than batting average is. Sure, in the situation that you listed, Jack Cust would be a far from ideal man to have up at the plate, but that one specific situation will only account for a tiny portion of your PA's over the course of a season. The more effective way of scoring runs is by not making outs and hitting for power, and if that comes with a bundle of strikeouts then so be it. As for Swisher, surely his bounce back with the Yanks proves that he simply had a down year with the Sox. His lack of production is in no way, shape or form a predictor of what would happen to Cust if Kenny were to acquire him.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Jan 5, 2010 -> 03:30 PM) Cust struck out 197 times in 08 and 185 times in 09. Strike outs are rally killers. No thank you. And walks are rally starters.

Not a lot to note from the chat except from this:

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 4, 2010 -> 06:53 PM) Mitchell has great tools, and has advanced some of them to actual skills, but he's still got a ways to go to prove he's a ballplayer. He's got to be after the 2 through 5 on that list, IMO. And while I like Gonzalez, I think putting him in the top 10 might be a stretch at this point. I don't think Mitchell should be ranked ahead of Hudson/Flowers but I have no problems with him at 3rd. Morel's upside is questionable and Danks still has a long way to go himself. The Gonzalez writeup was very promising. Basically Rogers says that they have him on the fast track (whether righty or wrongly), he's good both offensively and defensively, with a plus arm and he should add more power as he fills out.

QUOTE (CWSOX45 @ Jan 4, 2010 -> 06:08 PM) I've seen Holmberg pitch. I think the kid has a ton of upside. When I saw him he could effectively locate all three of his pitches. He knows how to pitch, and he's extremely aggressive and goes right at guys. Granted his fastball didn't crack above 89 when I saw him, but he did a great job mixing his pitches and keeping guys off balance. All the positive signs you want to see with a young pitcher. As long as he can continue to throw his curve and change for strikes I really think this kid will be higher up on our top prospect list in the future. I liked the pick a lot. While he may not have the upside of some other high school pitcher from the '09 draft like a Madison Younginer, Keyvius Sampson or a Bryan Mitchell, he does have a great feel for pitching and is probably a much better bet than those guys of becoming a Major League contributor. The lack of velocity is a big concern however, off the top of my head I can't think of too many pitcher who broke into the Majors with a sub-90 mph fastball.

Well here's the list: 1. Jared Mitchell, of 2. Tyler Flowers, c 3. Dan Hudson, rhp 4. Brent Morel, 3b 5. Jordan Danks, of 6. Trayce Thompson, of 7. Dayan Viciedo, 3b 8. David Holmberg, lhp 9. Clevelan Santeliz, rhp 10. Miguel Gonzalez, c

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Jan 4, 2010 -> 03:47 AM) What will it be? 1. Hudson. 2. Flowers 3. Danks 4. Viciedo 5. Mitchell 6. Morel 7. Santeliz 8. Escobar 9. Phegley 10. Retherford Given some of the things that Rogers has written I would expect Morel to be ahead of Viciedo. I expect Miguel Gonzalez to be in the top 10. Mitchell will probably be higher also, maybe 3rd. This would be my guess: Hudson Flowers Mitchell Morel Danks Viciedo Santeliz M. Gonzalez Retherford Santos Rodriguez Not sure about that last spot. John Ely was probably a lock before he was traded.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 3, 2010 -> 06:55 PM) Why would he be an improvement over Thome? He wouldn't necessarily be. But he is younger and not as injury prone. I'd be fine with either Cust or Thome.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Jan 3, 2010 -> 07:00 PM) as a wedding present lets send him back home for adam dunn Let's not. Gavin Floyd on his contract>One year of Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (pktmotion @ Jan 3, 2010 -> 07:46 AM) You know I'm in the minority here, but I'm pulling for Jack Cust. His K-rate is atrocious, but he did hit 25 homers in OAKLAND! He can draw a walk and (the thing that puts him over the top of Thome or Vlad) he still has fresh legs. Vlad has knee problems and Thome is a well-known base clogger. Cust stole 4 bases last year, which is nothing to brag about, but it's 2 more than Vlad or Thome did combined. Given that his home run totals would increase slightly with a move to a park like the Cell and I think Cust is a good choice for DH. Cust, Jones, Quentin rotate DH responsibilities according to opponent pitching; with Jones covering RF when Carlos is the DH; Cust is only played as a DH. I'm definitely on the Jack Cust for DH train. Yeah his average is going to be low but he'll walk 100 times (or thereabouts) with great power. I think he'd be a near perfect fit for us.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 3, 2010 -> 12:03 PM) I actually don't think he has much value to the Nationals or a rebuilding team such as that period. He's going to be a free agent after his contract is up, and that's not enough time for these teams to get on their feet. They'd be wasting prospects for a pitcher that will ultimately do little for them. Teams that would be interested would be talented teams who are very close to putting something together - the Orioles, Brewers, Rangers, maybe even the Reds, Astros, or Mets. Further, I don't think the Sox consider Gavin Floyd to be a back of the rotation starter. Floyd put up an ERA of 2.97 in his final 22 starts of the season, and I think he could very easily be the 2nd best starter on the Sox next year. I definitely agree with that. Floyd was great this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he even leads this team in FIP next year. He's proven that he can be much more than a 4/5.

I don't expect a major move such as a trade for Gonzalez/Fielder, but I do think KW will sign a DH, or at least I hope he does.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 1, 2010 -> 11:15 PM) Does it say what he defines as bust? Yes: I'm not familiar with WAB but I'm guessing it's at least somewhat similar to WAR. You can read the full study here: http://philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jan 1, 2010 -> 10:31 PM) Just looked at Baseball America's top 50 prospect list. Half of those never amount to anything. Here are some numbers:

QUOTE (scenario @ Dec 31, 2009 -> 02:31 AM) Yep. He was spotted at a hotel in Detroit this week. I don't think too many people visit Detroit during the winter for pleasure. From the same person that Tweeted about the sighting: "Saw him at an area hotel. Word is he was in town for a funeral." http://twitter.com/MSGTina/status/7186940198

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 30, 2009 -> 11:58 PM) With Guerrero, Thome, and Delgado available, yeah I'd say .800+ I mean a DH is a unique opportunity to pay less for a one dimensional player. We can get a guy that hits well and not worry about his defense. You want to rotate bench outfielders? Rotate them. In the outfield. Winn is decent but he's best as an outfielder. If we got him and put him at DH, we might as well just use Kotsay all year. Yeah I agree with that. Winn's main value over the last few years has come from his defensive ability. Playing him at DH would be fairly idiotic.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 30, 2009 -> 02:48 AM) The funny thing is that the Twins can't have complementary players like Getz if they won't keep Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer in the middle of that line-up. Because Getz is a lot like a Brendan Harris, Tolbert, Punto type that doesn't really have any "plus" tools. That's why they have been trying to upgrade their offensive output there, as well as hoping for bigger numbers from D. Young and continued excellent all-around play by Span. It will be very interesting to see if they pull the trigger on Mr. Beltre. If they make that move, they have to be the favorites heading into the pre-season, although nobody knows how they'll play in their new stadium, their pitching has a lot more room for improvement coming off 2009. Whereas, the White Sox have to get lights out performances from the Big 4 starters if we go into 2010 with THIS as our offense going forward. Don't forget Kubel who had a breakout year. I doubt he repeats the .332 BABIP but I still see him as a very solid .365/.370 wOBA guy.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Dec 28, 2009 -> 06:49 AM) First, let me say that it was not my intent to insult you. If you were, I apologize. Second, no I have a hard time being convinced by UZR. Though I think it, along with OOZ (which doesn't really seem to be discussed all that much around here), are valuable and shouldn't be pushed aside, I also don't think they can be entirely accurate. Maybe sometimes they are, but I think there are too many variables (as I said earlier, positioning, accurate ball speed for example) which make it hard to put a number on it. I know UZR might be the best we have to work with at the moment, but that doesn't necessarily make it great. That's why I would never look at a player's UZR and use that as the evidence that a player is either good or bad in the field. It should be a point of reference, really. And I agree with you, I'll be all over these optical computer programs when they are perfected. I'm excited for them, and I think they'll change everything. They'll also be able to give us a true idea as to how reliable UZR really is. OOZ is fairly useless, on it's own. You need to combine it with RZR and then convert it into a plus/minus statistics for it to hold any real value. OOZ on it's own merely tells you how many out of zone plays a defender has made. Even if you do combine the two of them and convert it into a plus/minus form then you're still only looking at a far more basic version of UZR, and if you're unconvinced by UZR, then you should be in heavy protest of OOZ/RZR. You'll also find it extremely difficult to find the statistic anywhere now that THT has removed their stats section (well technically it's still there, but there are no links to it and I doubt it will be updated for '10). FanGraphs took on several of the more useful THT statistics such a xFIP, but of course due to already having UZR, there was/is no need for OOZ/RZR. I know UZR might be the best we have to work with at the moment, but that doesn't necessarily make it great. That's why I would never look at a player's UZR and use that as the evidence that a player is either good or bad in the field. It should be a point of reference, really. Ok, so if UZR is only a reference, the how do you build up an opinion. You're shooting down UZR as not being accurate enough and so how does Chris Rongey assess the defensive ability of a player?