Ozzie Ball

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 16, 2009 -> 08:33 AM) Um, can I get atleast one vote for Nolan Reimold, or do the Orioles no longer count as a major league baseball team? The fact that Nolan Reimold didn't get a single vote is absurd. Of course, most people don't realize the offensive season Reimold had, but that's OK, I suppose. The dude did his best to out-OPS everyone on the entire White Sox roster, and he got close to doing so. He had a great season, and I imagine only a few diehard baseball fans here even know who he is. His defense was really bad; -10.8 UZR, -8 +/- and all in just 90 games. His bat was still enough to make him a positive factor and he may well be the best offensive player of this group going forward, but it wasn't enough this year.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Nov 16, 2009 -> 04:08 AM) I agree. I still think Porcello deserves it. For what reason? I think he's the most overrated candidate of this years class.

Rob Neyer proves he's still a cut above the rest.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 13, 2009 -> 06:30 PM) For you sabermetrics guys, has Hunter ever profiled extremely well in regards to UZR? I've always thought he just plays extremely deep and has an extraordinary talent for timing leaps to pull down potential home run balls. On the other side of that coin (as the great HAWK-eh-roo likes to say), seems like he has always let a crapload of singles drop because of that defensive positioning. So I am just curious if he was always overrated, or just as he has gotten older and a step or so slower? He was +13.2 in 2003 which is very good, but aside from that not really and he's a career -14.5 UZR (-2.1 per 150) although data only goes back to 2002. He's also a combined +15 runs saved since 2004 going by Dewan's +/-. Your point on his positioning is actually spot on according to his +/-, he scores very high on balls hit deep and he scores badly on shallow hit balls.

QUOTE (qwerty @ Nov 9, 2009 -> 01:17 PM) I truly believe due to our other options in center during anderson's tenure being so bad that anderson just looked drastically better that he really is to white sox fans in general. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid defender, but he is not a stud. If he were that good, and is that good, teams would bite the bullet offensively, while he should more than make up for it defensively. Overall, defensively, anderson is slightly above average. I agree, I always felt he was overrated (by Sox fans only). He's certainly no Franklin Gutierrez.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2009 -> 05:51 PM) Depends on the pitching staff too. It really doesn't.

QUOTE (Cali @ Nov 7, 2009 -> 05:23 PM) Not really related to this discussion, but I'm calling it right now: the 2010 All Star Ballot will list Beckham as a 3rd Basemen Thereby screwing him out of a starter position. I thought they set the positions for the ballot during ST?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2009 -> 05:00 PM) It would depend on the rest of the line up. Right now, I would value Uribe's D, but with the guys that are leaving, I am worried about scoring runs next year, at this point. I am sure that changes though. Scoring runs and preventing runs are the same thing though, surely. If player A has a +3 run bat and +7 run glove, is that any different from player B with a -8 run glove and +18 run bat?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 7, 2009 -> 02:03 PM) Reason I am not worried about Beckham at 2b There's also the fact that the guy is a stud and could probably play any position on the field at an above average or better level with a bit of practice.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Nov 6, 2009 -> 11:15 PM) David Cameron's just pissed off that now we have no need to trade Danks for JOSE LOPEZ, JUSTIN VARGAS, and MARK LOWE. Ne he's not. He makes a very reasonable point and then backs it up satisfactorily with statistics.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 6, 2009 -> 08:49 PM) I agree, Carlos has not been great in the OF since he has been here, and LF is easier to play than RF. Also not sure I want a guy with a history of shoulder problems in RF. The UZR stat has to be one of the most worthless in baseball because if you watch the players play, you can tell who is good and who is not, but UZR boosts marginal players to make them look great and makes great defenders look marginal. An OF with CQ in LF Rios in right and signee/tradee/Danks/De Aza in CF would be light years better than what we threw out there last season. Yeah sabermatricians spent lots of time and effort to make a metric that solely devalues good players and adds value to weak players. Sabermetrics is a serious thing, people aren't just pulling numbers out of their asses, it's all (well the better stuff anyway) meticulously thought over and researched. Your statement here is actually very ignorant, just take a few minutes to look into the framework behind UZR and if you know anything about baseball it will be very apparent to you just how much sense it makes. "if you watch the players play, you can tell who is good and who is not" This really isn't the case with most people, you may think that you are forming your own opinion on a player by watching them but really you're being heavily influenced by what you hear (it's amazing how many people share the same opinions as the crackpot Hawk Harrelson). Then you have the problems of sample size, let's say you watched 10 Texas Rangers games this year, you wouldn't be in a position to form an accurate opinion on any of their players, you might watch Ian Kinsler go 10-50 in that span with a .200/.250/.325 slash line and 8 errors, would this mean that he was a bad player? No, you would need to defer to his body of work, i.e. the stats.

QUOTE (SockMe @ Nov 6, 2009 -> 08:15 PM) anyone know how much $$$$$ we get? $2m apparently.

Cowley with the slightly less informative: "Jordan Danks ... C'MON DOWN!!!" http://twitter.com/cst_sox/status/5484704492

Mark Teahen at 3B by John Dewan's +/- for anyone who's interested: 2005: -23 2006: 0 2008: -2 2009: -9

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 6, 2009 -> 07:04 PM) Royals dont' have anyone else available that really would fit the Sox needs or at least I don't think they do. DeJesus would be a nice fit though. I really wish they had gone for DeJesus over Teahen. I'm a huge Dejesus fan and him and Rios plus a now (hopefully) healthy Quentin would have been a huge defensive upgrade over 2009's outfield.

He projected Chris Davis to hit .300 with 40 homers this year. James goes way overboard on the young players.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Nov 5, 2009 -> 07:24 PM) Of course then you have to enter into a large scale bidding war with the other 28 teams in baseball all chomping at the bit to get their hands on Mark Teahen. Haha, yeah, there really aren't enough of those 1 WAR outfielders to go around.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 5, 2009 -> 04:47 PM) Nix still can't hit right handers, that's the problem. Had Nix hit .230 against both right handers and left handers, he'd be an okay everyday player, given the fact that he hits for a lot of power to make up for his s***ty average and he also walks his fair share. But he absolutely sucks against right handers and it just so happens that most of the league throws with their right arm. Check his minor league splits, an inability to hit right handers is an anomaly at this point in his career, not a rule.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,4709685.story

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Nov 2, 2009 -> 04:34 AM) Joke's on them, people who value players like Nix don't look at stolen bases as being that important. 1. Nix can and does steal bases. 2. Stolen bases aren't that important especially not in replacement for OBP or SLG.

Retherford, Danks and Morel all in the game today http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?g...perwin_scowin_1

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 24, 2009 -> 05:41 AM) That describes perfectly what I feel Nix is. I'm not crazy bout Nix as a starter, but as you said he's a decent bench guy. If he is our starter, we're in trouble. Not really because at worst we'd have a defensive specialist at a very weak offensive position. Everyone always complains about how we don't play any defense and then when we do get a great defender who is also at least as good offensively as the next best option, you all just want to cast him aside. Makes sense to me too.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 22, 2009 -> 08:48 PM) The fact that O-Dug and Brian Roberts are that low on the list saws a lot right there. Hell, Aaron Hill is a negative .8. There is nothing on that list that makes me think UZR is at all reliable. In fact, if anything else, it tells me that UZR is a joke. Just out of interest, how many times did you watch Orlando Hudson and Brian Roberts play this year?

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 05:52 PM) Yeah, because a 2B who is on pace to K about 130 times per season with a career batting average just above the Mendoza line (.206) is really such a fantastic option in the first place. To address your other points: 1. Nix walks more often, but his batting average consistently sucks which is why Getz has always gotten on base more. In the Majors, Getz's career OBP is .323 at while Nix's is .295. In the minors, Get has a career .362 OBP vs. a .332 OBP for Nix. Both players will draw walks, but because Getz actually puts the bat on the ball he's a better bet to get on base. 2. Using BABIP to add 36-41 points to Nix's batting average is ridiculous. He's a career .261 hitter in the minors for God sakes. I guess he's been "unlucky" his entire professional career. Call me crazy, but I just think he's a s***ty hitter. So please, tell me why Nix is a .260+ hitter in the Majors. His best professional seasons have come in the PCL while repeating AAA. 3. Yes, Nix has much more power than Getz. However, those power numbers are misleading. In a roughly equal sample size, Nix slugged .496 in 121 AB against lefties, but he only slugged .328 in 134 AB vs. righties. Why would anyone expect those power numbers to show up vs. RHP? Keep in mind the 40 K vs. RHP compared to the 24 K vs. LHP. 4. Oh please. Getz may not be as strong as Nix is defensively, but you're actually saying Nix is soooo much better in the field that Getz cannot effectively replace him despite being the better hitter? And BTW I personally see Getz as average in the field, not below average, so I don't know what you're looking at. If you were using some metric then it wasn't RF/G or RF/9 since Getz beats him in both of those as a 2B. Derek Jeter AVG vs. BABIP 1995: AVG- .250 BABIP- .324 1996: AVG- .314 (+.064 from previous year) BABIP- .368 (+.044 from previous year) 1997: AVG- .291 (-.023) BABIP- .347 (-.021) 1998: AVG- .324 (+.033) BABIP- .377 (+.030) 1999: AVG- .349 (+.025) BABIP- .400 (+.023) 2000: AVG- .339 (-.010) BABIP- .388 (-.012) 2001: AVG- .311 (-.028) BABIP- .344 (-.044) 2002: AVG- .297 (-.014) BABIP- .338 (-.006) 2003: AVG- .324 (+.027) BABIP- .380 (+.042) 2004: AVG- .292 (-.032) BABIP- .317 (-.063) 2005: AVG- .309 (+.017) BABIP- .353 (+0.036) 2006: AVG- .343 (+.034) BABIP- .394 (+.041) 2007: AVG- .322 (-.021) BABIP- .368 (-.026) 2008: AVG- .300 (-.022) BABIP- .336 (-.032) 2009: AVG- .334 (+.034) BABIP- .369 (+.033) Average changes: AVG- .0274 BABIP- .0324 Difference- .005 I picked Jeter at random due to him having a long career and therefore a lot of data points, he wasn't a predetermined pick that I knew this worked for. So as you can see Jeter's change in batting average is heavily linked to his change in BABIP (and therefore his change in luck) and this is the case more often than not with any player you look at. So now back to Nix, his BABIP was .251, his average .224, his expected BABIP (which is calculated from factors such as Park factors, player speed/power and batted ball rates) was .289. Given what we've seen with Jeter I think it is reasonable to expect Nix to hit between .245-.275 (the lower end of the scale playing everyday due to ability vs. RHP and the high end of the scale if a platoon player) for as long as he can maintain this years speed/power and batted ball rates. Defense: I'm going by the most accurate readily available defensive metric, UZR. Getz this year: -5.8 UZR (or 5.8 runs worse than an average defensive 2B) -5.4 UZR per 150 games -5.3 RngR (range runs) -5.0 UZR per 150 games for his career Nix this year (at 2B): +4.5 UZR (4.5 runs better than an average defensive 2B) +11.3 UZR per 150 games +4.3 RngR +14.3 UZR per 150 games for his career It's overwhelmingly in Nix' favour, he would have been worth 16.7 runs more than Getz this year on defense if left to play every day. Getz' offense was worth 7.3 park adjusted runs less than an average offensive 2B this year in 102 games, which over 150 games comes to 10.74 runs below average. Now just for proving my points sake, lets say Nix is twice as bad offensively as Getz (which is not even close to being correct as they were almost identical offensively this year), so if Nix' offense is worth 10.74 runs less than Getz' over a full year he's still worth about 6 runs more than Getz due to his vastly superior defensive ability, and therefore, hence point number 4. Your whole argument for Getz being better than Nix is based solely on batting average, and as we've seen, batting average is heavily influenced by luck. If Nix gets a shot next year, his luck levels out and his BABIP sits near his xBABIP of .289 (probability, research, history tells us this is likely to happen) then I don't see any reason why Nix can't post a slash line in the region of .250/.350/.450 with outstanding defense, and you can be sure, that is better than anything Getz will ever be able to do.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Oct 21, 2009 -> 02:02 PM) Nix has a lot of work cut out for him. He needs to cut down on his k's and maintain a batting average of around .250 to be worth a shot. Until then, Getz who walks more, and is a tad faster is the clear favorite. 1. Nix' walk rate was much better than Getz' last year and his career walk rate is also much better than Getz', so that right there is just untrue. 2. While Nix' average was low his BABIP was also ridiculously low at .251 (to Getz' .301), and using an xBABIP calculator (for expected BABIP) Nix should have been at .289 (BABIP), giving him a luck adjusted batting average somewhere around .260-.265. 3. Power is obviously a huge win in Nix' favour. And if that's not enough: 4. Nix' defensive value at 2nd is worth more than Getz' offensive and defensive value combined, this is due to Nix being a very good defender with great range and Getz being below average both offensively and defensively. I agree that Getz is the clear favourite but not because he's the better option, but rather management, or should I say Ozzie, is largely clueless.