Ozzie Ball

Matt Garrioch at John Sickels' site just posted his early 2015 draft rankings. Follow the link for the full list (top 300). http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/12/7...-draft-rankings He's much lower on both Matuella (#28) and Bickford (#43) than the experts. He gave the following explanations for this:

Love it. Helps bring much needed quality and depth to the bench. A good platoon option with Conor at 3B, brings at least average defensive cover in the OF, 3B and 2B as well as good speed and baserunning. Also a decent insurance option if Sanchez/Micah are a bust/not ready to go at 2nd.

Kiley McDaniel on the 2015 international period and beyond. Worth a read for those interested in this stuff. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-interna...ls-dont-matter/

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 02:02 AM) .651 OPS with over 150 strikeouts. I hope whatever they give up, it isn't much. Agreed. I don't see the appeal. 2013 was clearly a fluky season with a .355 BABIP and a HR/FB rate that has been a complete outlier in his career to date. He hardly hit for any power in the minors then popped a +.200 ISO in '13. No surprise to see he couldn't sustain it this year. Both his K% and BB% have been trending in the wrong direction the last two seasons. I think he is better than Flowers, but it wouldn't be a big enough improvement to warrant giving up the pieces that the Astros will demand.

QUOTE (mmmmmbeeer @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 12:02 AM) I think Flowers is important because the bottom 3rd of the lineup, plus a sort of unknown in Gillaspie, scares me a bit and I think that Tyler offers us the best chance of being the impactful player out of the bunch. I expect a rough season from Alexei. I think there's a much bigger chance that Flowers sucks than is an impact player. He doesn't have the skill set to sustain a high BABIP and that is going to regress next year. His current steamer projection is for a 75 wRC+. Needless to say that is terrible. QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 12:51 AM) 1) We experience good health 2) 2B isn't a dumpster fire. 3) Noesi pitches like he did last year with the Sox, not like he did with the Rangers and Mariners. I don't think this one is a huge problem as it will likely just result in the introduction of Rodon.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 11:44 PM) Avisail becomes a legitimately good hitter. The top 3 in the rotation stay healthy. The bullpen is at least league average. I'll echo this, with the health of Sale/Quintana/Samardzija being the most important.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 05:27 PM) So what kind of defender is Melky? -3.5 UZR and -4 DRS in LF this year. Career -3.9 UZR/150 in LF, so below average but not terrible. Much worse in CF, so hopefully Adam stays healthy and Melky in CF never needs to be an option.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 04:25 PM) The White Sox are very probably going to go underslot with their first pick as they are missing a second and third round pick. I hope they don't. I think it would require a significant overdraft in order to save the type of money you would need to make this strategy work. The only significant under slot signing in the first round last year outside the top 3 was the injured Kyle Freeland at #8 (~800k under slot). Even the injured Jeff Hoffman signed for slot at #9. Unless you have one of the top 3 or 4 selections or target an injured pitcher I'm just not sure how workable a strategy it is. Personally I'd rather they just go all in on the #8 pick and ensure they have at least one impact type talent entering the system. I'd rather have a 1st and a 4th round pick than two 2nd's, if that's the trade-off.

QUOTE (Knuckles @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:55 PM) @JonHeymanCBS 3m3 minutes ago melky cabrera agrees to three-year deal with white sox for $42M. @MLBBruceLevine 1st w/chisox 42MIL. I'm always a bit cautious about big FA signings, but given that it's only a three year deal I don't see how anyone could consider this a bad move. Upgrading LF was essential and Melky was probably the best option available to do that. We will have him for his age 30-32 seasons so he shouldn't have entered the extreme decline phase just yet. At $14m AAV it's unlikely that the deal will provide any excess value, but when you have several cost controlled stars, you don't need to get great value from every FA signing. Melky's awful 2013 season is obviously a concern, as is the PED stuff, but if he had been consistency good every year of his career, there's no way he would have been in our price range.

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Yep, guess I jumped the gun but I'd still love to see Bonifacio. I thought we were outa money...lol guess ole KW did some smooth talkin to JR. Not a fan of Melky's but he fits an he's the best bat out there. This teams lookin pretty good Bonifacio would be a perfect final addition to the lineup I feel. Incredibly versatile and brings at least average defense at 2B, 3B, and across the outfield. Most importantly he hits LHP well (and was a beast vs. lefties last year with a 170 wRC+). He'd bring some much needed speed and base running ability to the party also. Would be a good option to platoon with Gillaspie at 3B. I think it's very important to make sure Gillaspie is not being relied upon as the everyday 3B. He's so bad against lefties.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 07:53 AM) So I guess the Sox forfeit another pick in the draft? That kind of sucks, but not the end of the world. I was reading a comment from Keith Law who said that this draft class looks quite weak, so perhaps it's not the worst year to lose a couple of picks. Hopefully they will at least use their entire IFA pool as a way to compensate for the lost draft talent. Either that or there's still always the possibility to acquire competitive balance picks.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 12:21 AM) What is the difference between league average and a replacement level players? Replacement level would be a 0 WAR player, while a league average player would come in somewhere around 2 WAR.

And from Klaw chat.

Kiley prospect chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdan...ts-chat-121214/

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:33 PM) I was thinking what would be the perfect draft scenario for the Sox. This is what I came up with: The Sox draft Michael Matuella with the 8th overall pick. He projects to be a high upside starting pitcher with a fastball that tops out at 97mph and grade projects to be a 70 on the grading scale and three other plus pitches. He could be a fixture in the rotation or if that fails he could be a high upside reliever (If the Sox are making a playoff push, maybe he could join the bullpen and help the Sox out a la Brandon Finnegan.). Since he is a college player, maybe the Sox could sign him below slot. The Sox already have an extra $1 Million to spend. In the third and fourth rounds the team will go overslot to sign some high upside high school talent like: OF Kyle Tucker, C Wyatt Cross, 3B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Mitchell Hansen, and P Nolan Watson. That would be the perfect draft scenario. Side note: I was also thinking about what the team's biggest organizational weakness is and it's pretty obivious, the Sox need to start developing impact bats across the diamond. I think you're dreaming a little too much here. Not only Matuella at 8, but also to sign him for $1m below slot. Barring injury or a complete loss of form and/or stuff, it's not going to happen.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 08:33 PM) And you know that how? Dee Gordon made major strides forward last year and while he struggled the year previously when coming up through the Dodgers system he was widely regarded as a top 100 prospect. He was a much different player a year ago and when you combine his speed and value on the paths, he brings a very unique skill-set. Like I said, I would trade Dee Gordon for Howie Kendrick when you consider contracts, etc. Kendrick is a better player but Gordon is on a superior contract. How exactly? I think you're focusing on the result rather than the process. He didn't really do anything better this year. He made a bit more contact, and doubled his HR output (from 1 to 2!), but the walk rate halved, to a pretty awful 4.8%, which is a major negative for a player whose value is tied to his ability reach base and utilise his speed. The big difference is that his average increased 50 points thanks to a rather high BABIP (.346). While you would expect a player with Gordon's skill-set (e.g. his bunt hit ability) to be able to register higher than average BABIP marks, this was still significantly above his career BABIP (.326). The problem with someone like Gordon is that, due to the fact that he doesn't walk, hit for power or make elite level contact, so much of his offensive value is tied to his BABIP. If he has a good year with balls in play, such as in 2014, then you can buy him as a league average hitter and a valuable player, but in the years when he will have bad or even neutral luck on balls in play, he's going to go back to being the awful Dee Gordon of 2012 and 2013. He's below average in the field too. The Dodgers sold high and got a nice return.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 10:06 PM) The WHIP is the exact reason I can't get overly ecstatic about this trade. I just don't know how you can have sustainable long term success based with that sort of WHIP. He was unlucky with a high BABIP though (.339). Assuming that regresses to a more reasonable level this year then the hit rate should fall and the WHIP will reduce. He's an above average pitcher. Gets a lot of ground balls from his fastball (52% GB/BIP vs MLB average of 36%) and his slider has an excellent whiff rate (~40% Whiff/Swing career and ~44% in '14 vs MLB average of ~32%). Should be a nice addition to the 'pen.

QUOTE (PolishPrince34 @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) Love this deal. Also being able to get a draft pick if we don't sign Shark is icing on the cake. Robertson will bite us in the ass. Might be good for 2 years, but that 3rd/4th year will be ugly. Long term deals for relievers just don't work. At the same time understand Hahn's logic. We have the money, huge hole now filled, and the Central division is there for the taking. Should be a fun year and it's only Day 2 of the Winter meetings. I know Hahn has some more up his sleeves. It's very possible that this will be true, but Robertson's not exactly old. He doesn't turn 30 until after opening day 2015. He's been consistently good since he reached the Majors in 2008. The velocity is still good and he actually threw harder this year vs. 2012/2013. He just posted the 2nd highest K/9, and best xFIP and SIERA of his career. Clearly he hasn't started his decline phase just yet. That will probably start to come at some point over the next four years, but as far as I can see there are no obvious red flags or reasons to expect his production fall off a cliff in two years. All that said I still don't like the idea of throwing big $'s at a free agent closer, but I think Robertson at least has a reasonable possibility of living up to the deal.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 08:21 AM) I think we add one more bat and maybe another pitcher and we will be set for the year. There will be a couple holes but every team has those. Eaton Ramirez Abreu LaRoche Garcia Hitter Gillaspie Flowers Johnson/Sanchez Looks really good if Gillaspie hits over .280 and continues to improve and Garcia is at full strength More realistically it looks poor with Alexei's .300 OBP in the 2 hole, Avi is still a massive question mark, Gillaspie and Flowers are both unlikely to repeat their BABIP marks from this season and are therefore regression candidates (and Gillaspie is terrible vs. LHP), 2B will likely be a significantly below average bat. At the very least, a big COF bat is needed. Still a lot of work needed to make this team a true contender I feel. I'm sure Hahn has plenty of plans though and if Dayan if the opening day LF then something clearly went very, very wrong.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) Micah hit pretty well in AAA last year. 87 wRC+ and the walks and power disappeared. Not really my definition of hitting well.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 07:32 AM) I really think they want it to be Micah Johnson. I think so too. Merkin alluded to such a few months ago. It's a scary prospect though. To go all in with these types of moves and then rely on an injury prone, suspect defensive 2B that hasn't hit above AA. Long-term Micah may be the option, but he hasn't shown himself to be ready just yet. I hate to see Semien go also. I think he will have an excellent season if given the chance to play every day.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Dec 9, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) I get the feeling the Sox are going for it, Rodon will be on the big league club. These moves certainly make it more likely you would think. I still hope they start him in the minors to ensure they get the full 7 years of control, but I won't be surprised if he makes the team out of ST.

My take on the Yoan Moncada situation for FutureSox, including several reasons why losing the ability to sign IFA players over $300k for the next two years is not a big deal. http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2014/...g-yoan-moncada/

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Nov 16, 2014 -> 12:01 AM) I am not surprised to see that there are no impact bats in this class, although I am high on Jake Jarvis. Why, exactly? Not that I'm saying you shouldn't be, but what specifically have you seen/read/heard to give you this feeling?

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2014/...ormance-update/ A quick look back at the 2014 draft picks and how each player performed in their professional debut. Not a lot of upside after Rodon/Adams and I'd be surprised if there's an impact bat in this class. Quite a few college pitchers with interesting statistical profiles in the later rounds though. I plan to do the same thing for the 2013 class and see how those prospects look now that we have a full season of data. Hope you enjoy.