almagest

Really no one, unless there’s a QB run for some reason and some of the higher ceiling prospects fall. I hope they trade down too.

I really don't mind going when they're bad because I can get in and out of the park easily.

Boy I hope not. I think that'll be a mistake unless there's absolutely nothing left in the first round. I guess if Ben Johnson is pounding the table for him I'd feel better about the pick, but still.

I want this to be a real hat

I think a better question is - "Will taking Jeanty at 10 and other positions later in the draft bring more value than taking another position at 10 (or trading down) and a running back in a later round?". In my mind you have to be pretty convinced that Jeanty is a generational running back to take him that highly because you're spending a ton of draft capital on a non-premium position.

DLine first, then WR and RB is my hope.

Everyone likes beating Houston

They're definitely not going to trade Hoerner now. My thought was he could be used to acquire a front line starter if they had Bregman at 3rd and if they thought Shaw was ready at 2nd. Shaw has played some 2nd in the minors. Not sure I'd use Hoerner for Cease anyway, though, since Cease only has a year left. Hypothetically, that'd probably be a 1 for 1 deal, with maybe a couple low minors guys going to the Cubs. Not sure what the Padres want, and I don't think I've seen any rumored Cease deals. They're built to win now, so I'd assume they'd look to upgrade at 2B/LF/DH with major league talent, and maybe grab some lower level lotto tickets to develop, which they seem to be very good at.

Of course the Sox need Colson to succeed long term. If he struggles this year it's not a big deal, though. They can absorb the struggles for the future payoff. The Cubs can't absorb any struggles from Shaw because they're in win now mode with Tucker only being signed for a year. Teams don't have to spend like the Dodgers, but they should embrace depth at multiple positions via free agent signings with deferred money and retaining impact prospects. I'd be on board for a Cease trade for them, mostly because I'd like to see them trade and acquire him. I was thinking Hoerner could be in a deal for a starter, which probably relied on Bregman signing. I wouldn't trade Hoerner now. Not sure what the Padres are asking for, but I'd imagine it's MLB ready players, so I don't know how well the Cubs match up.

I don't think Colson is ready for the majors, but the Sox have the ability to not care about him playing poorly at the MLB level at least. Cubs don't have that. I don't think so - if Shaw is great, Bregman and Shaw is still better because it gives them options with Hoerner and Swanson. The Dodgers do this better than anyone, and it seems like other teams just haven't caught on yet. The Cubs should be fine with deferred money on Lester and Heyward, because it brought them a World Series win and like 5 years of sustained playoff success.

$20 million is deferred per year on Bregman's salary. They could definitely afford Bregman and Tucker, especially if they can get out of some of Swanson's money. The Cubs are allergic to deferred money apparently, though, which is really silly, given how that franchise prints money. As it is right now, they will have neither of them.

Jon Berti is not good. If the Cubs are relying on him at third base, they have absolutely failed. You're also completely missing the point. I'll say it again - the Cubs have Kyle Tucker for ONE YEAR. They cannot assume he'll sign an extension, or resign with them as a free agent. They just spent good prospect capital for him and need to maximize that resource. They are relying on a rookie to produce near or at Bregman's level - I don't care how highly Shaw is ranked, because rookies struggle in their first season all the time. You don't rely on them as equivalent for a major producer like Bregman. If you sign Bregman and Shaw hits well, then great! That opens up a trade for Hoerner, or maybe it lets the Cubs get some relief from that Swanson deal, shifting Hoerner to short, where IIRC he's been decent.

It makes a lot of sense to sign a sure thing free agent and have infield depth, as we just saw in our failed rebuild. Shaw hasn’t accomplished anything yet, and you only have Kyle Tucker for one year right now. It’s pretty unlikely Shaw comes anywhere close to what Bregman does this year, and if he’s bad (which rookies often are), you press full-decline Turner into full time play. So, instead of having a damn good third baseman for a few years and sprinkling Shaw in at 3B, 2B and DH, you’re relying on a rookie and a 40 year old in the only season you’re likely to have Tucker.

"Great pivot" to sign a 40 year old with a .383 SLG instead of an actual good player like Bregman.

A good chunk of Bregman's salary is deferred plus it's a shorter term deal. Cubs could've found time for Shaw at 3B/1B/DH or used him to find pitching help. I'm also not convinced a 5'9" third baseman is going to produce, good minors numbers or not.

Most Cubs fans I know were convinced they were getting Bregman. I look forward to their tears.

I remember when I wanted to trade for/sign Drury at 2B.

I doubt anyone will claim Wilson, so he'll be in AAA if/until they feel they need him.

Even though the quote wasn't intended the way I'm thinking about it, I actually think "orgs win championships" is true. They win by finding very good players, making sure they have the right supporting cast and coaching around them, and they keep finding good players to supplement the roster through drafting, free agency and trades. These orgs always seem to "luck" into stars via draft or trade, then they know what to do with them. I would love for the the Bulls to get back there, but they likely won't with this front office and ownership.

The only time Reinsdorf won anything in the NBA was when he had a team with two and then four hall of famers on it, one of whom is a top 3 player of all time at worst. So of course he thinks you need to do the opposite of that!

Of course it’s the Angels.

Yea, it's a problem they've had forever though. Since probably the mid 00s. For internal development start to finsh, you had guys like Maggs and Lee, then Rowand, then not a whole lot comes to mind until TA. Plus, some of the ones who were actually promising (like Semien & Tatis Jr) they traded. Hopefully they can figure it out, but 20 years of history does not make me incredibly hopeful.

If anything, Law was way more positive than I've seen here.

The rest of the writeups make sense to me, too. Mason Adams sounds like a quality control pitcher. Nastrini and Iriarte lost velocity, plus Nastrini couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, so I see why they fell. Meidroth has a similar profile to Madrigal so the comp makes sense, and it was more of a "he needs to hit the ball hard so he doesn't turn into Madrigal" than a "he is Madrigal". A 3% barrel rate in AAA is terrible. He needs some more time there to see if he can make more solid contact against AAA pitching. The Jacob Gonzalez writeup is interesting - he faced the best college pitching in the SEC and more than held his own, but can't hack it in the minors, and Law doesn't know why. If he could turn into at least a league average SS that helps dull the impact of Montgomery switching to 3rd, but that seems unlikely now. Hopefully he figures something out during the offseason, otherwise what a wasted pick. The writeup on Zavala is rough, but it's all stuff we heard during the season - bad swing decisions and a bad attitude will tank a career quickly. Hopefully he had a wakeup call.

This is just who Keith Law is. He's a glass half empty guy, but he can usually back it up because he knows what he's doing. The Colson report sounds like what we all knew - he might have trouble sticking at short and he had a bad season where he was too passive. Law is right to question the back injury, too. Who knows how that plays long-term. I'm hopeful due to Colson's rebound at the end of the year, but back injuries can kill careers, so I get the pessimism.