Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (Soxpranos @ Mar 15, 2009 -> 02:49 PM) Ok his defense is good, but again people don't realize he gives those outs back when he cant execute a simple bunt or move runners over with less than 1 out. If he is so spectacular there should not be 3 guys fighting for the job . What, are Jerry Owens and Dewayne Wise spectacular fundamental players? And even if they were, in what world does a bunt or groundout to the right side here and there make up for s***ty defense all the time? If you want to talk about fundamental play, the most important thing you can do on a baseball field fundamentally is play your position well. Brian is the only one here who can do that. Brian is a spectacular defender, why are you arguing that? I think you're trying to twist that and say he's not a spectacular all-around player, well no s***. That's not the point. The point is, if you have three guys who can't hit, you take the one who can play defense. That's not supposed to be a difficult decision to make, in fact, the Sox may be the only organization in baseball that will have trouble making that decision. League average for CF last year: .274/.343/.430 Brian last year in MLB (181 AB): .232/.272/.436 Owens last year in MLB (16 AB): .250/.250/.250 Wise last year in MLB (129 AB): .248/.293/.450 Brian's career in MLB (597 AB): .221/.277/.379 Owens' career in MLB (528 AB): .268/.321/.312 Wise's career in MLB (468 AB): .214/.254/.385 Let's say none of these guys improve at all offensively, but they don't get even worse either. Let's say all 3 hold to their career lines and each get 550 AB. Here are the differences between the three over the course of a full season: Anderson: 122 H, 168 times on base, 208 TB Owens: 147 H, 191 times on base, 172 TB Wise: 118 H, 150 times on base, 212 TB League average: 151 H, 211 times on base, 237 TB There are 6 months in the season. So, let's divide this all by 6 and look at their monthly averages (rounding up here): Anderson: 20 H per month, 28 times on base per month, 35 TB per month Owens: 25 H per month, 32 times on base per month, 29 TB per month Wise: 20 H per month, 25 times on base per month, 35 TB per month League Average: 25 H per month, 35 times on base per month, 40 TB per month So overall, by their career lines, this is what you're getting offensively per month with this group in comparison to league average: Anderson: -5 H/month, -7 times on base/month, -5 TB/month Owens: +0 H/month, -3 times on base/month, -11 TB/month Wise: -5 H/month, -10 times on base/month, -5 TB/month ^That's how much offense you can expect to lose in a given month by going with this group compared to league average production. What the Owens and Wise defenders need to realize is that 1) Wise is no better offensively than Anderson, 2) Owens is slightly better than Anderson in 2 offensive categories, yet much worse in a third, and neither of the two areas where he's better than Anderson can he be expected to be better than league average. So he sucks, basically. The question the defenders need to ask themselves is, considering the either non-existant or very minimal offensive gain of Owens and/or Wise over Anderson, is the speed they bring more important than Anderson's defense? The answer is no. No freakin' way. Hell no. Not when you consider the 350-400+ chances they'll get every year in CF, plus amount of times the opposition has a runner threatening to take 3B or go home on a short- to mid-range flyball in CF. I mean if we're talking like great offensive production - the likes of which Dewayne Wise and Jerry Owens will never see in their careers - then yes, maybe you can consider some weaker defense. But since that is not the case, don't let this Ozzie speedy lead-off man and fundamentals at the plate bulls*** fool you.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Mar 14, 2009 -> 03:44 PM) (hacking cough)...Gregor Blanco...(hacking cough) What makes you think the Sox would be able to acquire him without giving up the farm? The Braves need him in CF this year and it'll take a lot more than a fair offer to pry him away. Heyward isn't ready and Schaffer doesn't appear to be either. Edmonds is a nice option and I agree with the other poster who said he'd be the best of the 4, but I'd favor a situation that left Anderson as the starter with Kroeger as the backup. If nothing else, I'd like to see Anderson build some trade value this season. In my world, Wise would compete with Kroeger for the 4th OF job and Owens would be on a plane somewhere over the Pacific Ocean.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Mar 9, 2009 -> 05:10 PM) I'm starting to think that us having four picks in the first two rounds is meaning less and less for us. I forget where, but I read that this upcoming draft class is one of the worst talent and depth-wise (most depth with college arms) in a while and there's not much talent besides a few college guys, a select group of high school arms, and a high school star OF named Donovan Tate, who has five tool potential. I think we'd be lucky to get one decent impact guy in the earlier rounds out of this draft. Hopefully that changes as the college and high school seasons progress. There are impact guys in every draft, you just have to do the scouting. 2005 and 2006 had some great talent yet we came away with Broadway and McCulloch in the first rounds of those drafts. I'm more confident in our new regime finding talent in a supposedly weak draft than I'd be with our old regime running things during a stacked draft class.

QUOTE (bighurt4life @ Mar 9, 2009 -> 08:42 PM) You got some voodoo thing going on there??? I hope you're right. You don't need voodoo to tell that Gordon Beckham is awesome and Jerry Owens sucks. He should be seeing something about Lance Broadway in his crystal ball pretty soon too.

Many of you here have probably seen this, but I just watched this for the first time. . Hope the Nats end up with him because he needs to stay the f*** out of the American League. He throws mostly fastballs and sliders, but he gets a change in there that pulls some crazy Houdini disappearing act s***.

Some other veteran catchers that might be available for little: John Buck, KC - $2.9M in '09 Miguel Olivo, KC - $2.7M in '09, MO for 2010 Jeff Mathis, LAA - minimum or near it Ramon Castro, NYM - $2.5M in '09 Yorvit Torrealba, COL - $3.5M in '09, $4M MO for 2010 w/ $0.5M buyout ****Mike MacDougal's contract: $2.65M in '09, $3.75M TO in 2010 w/ $0.35M buyout*** Olivo is probably staying as their starter, but it looks like KC has given up on Buck. MacDougal and 'spect like Russell or something for Buck? Mathis would probably be the hardest to acquire and would require a decent prospect, but he's going to lose a lot of playing time to Napoli this year because Napoli broke out in '08. Mathis could still become a good player though. Unlikely we'd get him IMO. Torrealba probably makes too much money as he's owed $4M total including the buyout. MacDougal for Torrealba + prospect to cover the $1.35M the Sox would take on? Ramon Castro makes the most sense of any I think. The Mets supposedly want to go with Cancel as a backup, who is also cheaper, but no one would take Castro's salary. A Castro for MacDougal + Russell deal makes sense for both teams. MacDougal doesn't have to be on the 40-man roster, so the Mets replace Castro with a pen arm with some upside, plus the Sox get a backup to AJ while actually cutting a small bit of salary. Castro has a rep for being a strong defensive catcher that the pitchers like and is also a vet who hit .277 vs. lefties last year. Castro is .263/.335/.430 vs. LHP over his career.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 9, 2009 -> 12:01 AM) What you're accusing the Twins of doing is keeping him in the minors for over 2 months longer than necessary. 2.104 is 68 days short of 3.000 so in order to get that magical 3rd year of service they would have had to recall him about a month after they sent him down. He was optioned to AAA on April 25th and recalled on August 1st, the day you're sent down counts towards your service but the day you're recalled does not, so he didn't get credit for August 1st so we'll have to start there: August 2nd through the end of the season got him to 2.104 add on: August 1st - 1 day all of July - 31 days all of June - 30 days last 7 days of May - 6 days (the day you're called up doesn't count) = 68 days of service and puts him at 3.000 So what you're saying is that Francisco Liriano was good to go on May 25th but the greedy Twins not only left him in the minors for an extra day (if they had recalled him on May 26th he still couldn't have gotten to 3.000, he would have finished the season at 2.171) they let him rot for an extra 2+ months just so they'd have a little leeway in the future? Maybe the numbers from the site I took the thing from are wrong. Here's an article from the time and an excerpt: If the union determines there's reasonable cause to investigate the Twins for being shady, then it is reasonable to suspect the Twins of being shady.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 8, 2009 -> 10:49 PM) I guess my question about all of this is if Alexei's best position is supposedly ss, why the hell are we going to move him to CF so Beckham can play ss? My view is that a middle infield of Alexei/Beckham with Brian in CF is better all-around (meaning both offensively and defensively, comprehensively) than a middle infield of Beckham/Getz with Alexei in CF. Just my opinion, obviously I'd need to see both scenarios play out... I think we need to keep CF open for Danks anyway.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 8, 2009 -> 08:09 PM) Yeah, but the Twins did it in the middle of the year, as opposed to the beginning of the year, when they did bring him up with the big league team and he got shellacked. So they did give him his shot at the beginning of the year...but you're right, they held him back pretty late when it was clear he was ready down in AAA. Yep, but it was still for the same reasons. I checked Cot's Baseball Contracts and it has Liriano down for 2.104 years service time, so they probably did it to keep him from accumulating 3 years in 2008 and being arb eligible in 2009. I know an extra arb year may help a team keep a certain player, but that's still pretty bush league IMO and sends the wrong message to the players.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 8, 2009 -> 05:26 PM) And you really only need to send a player down for about 2 weeks to keep him from earning a full year of service for a given season. If a player spends 172 days on the 25 man roster he earns 1.000 years of service (DL and rehab time counts towards service time). If he spends 171 days on the 25 man roster he earns 0.171 years of service. You need a full 3.000 for arb eligibility (2.000 if you're a Super Two but that's complicated). Once a player reaches 6.000 years of service he becomes a free agent at year's end. The perfect example of intentionally suppressing a player's service time is the Evan Longoria situation from last year. For the purposes of this example lets just forget that he signed that 6 year deal that includes 2 option years. He was obviously major league ready out of spring training but the Rays sent him down for the first 2 weeks of the season anyway and thus he was only able to rack up 0.170 years of service last season effectively buying the Rays an extra year of Evan Longoria since by the end of 2013 instead of having 6.000 years of service he'll only have 5.170 and will have to wait another season to reach 6.000 and become free agent eligible. The Twins also tried that s*** with Liriano last year, sticking with Livan Hernandez instead of calling Francisco up when there was no doubt he was ready and better than anyone else there. Liriano either did file a complaint or thought seriously about filing a complaint with the MLBPA. Anyway, the Sox aren't known for pulling that kind of crap. IIRC when both Anderson and Sweeney were highly regarded prospects, the Sox added them to the roster much earlier than they had to. Didn't both players first come up as injury replacements prior to the September roster expansions? The Sox could have easily made a small trade for a AAAA player or called up a AAAA player to use as a sub temporarily instead of getting them service time, but they went the prospect route instead. The Sox as a whole under JR don't cut a lot of corners. They like to play things pretty much by the book, i.e. no MLB contracts or record-breaking signing bonuses to draft picks, etc. Borchard and Viciedo are the recent exceptions as Alexei was at least considered ready to play as a UT guy. Also this year with OC was the first time I can remember them really taking a chance through the arbitration process looking for draft picks. Generally if there's any chance a player will accept, and if the Sox don't want that player to accept, they don't offer arb. I'm sure there are other examples too, but overall the Sox would be one of the last teams I'd ever expect to end up in hot water over holding a player back to gain another arb year. Agents and the MLBPA don't like that s***, and the players definitely know what is going on.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Mar 8, 2009 -> 01:48 PM) Everything about this post is 110% f***ing awesome! Yea, no Sox fan could tolerate, let alone LOVE an asshole catcher. Tell me you own a "Kiss the Ring b****" 05 TShirt... Let's see. 1. He's a roider. 2. He, along with his agent, made the Tigers bid against themselves for his services because he put money ahead of winning. Then just a few months later he was already b****ing and pouting, demanding a trade because apparently he "just wanted to win." 3. He played like s*** last year. 4. He's old and near retirement. 5. Big ego. 6. Doesn't have experience working with Sox pitchers. 7. He's going to at least want incentives on top of a base MLB minimum deal. There's seven reasons why I'd rather have Chris Stewart backing up AJ. Sorry, but I couldn't give a f*** about that guy. We're not going to win or lose this season based on the hitting performance of our backup catcher. Maybe if you tried to make a case for a FA who is actually worth a damn someone would side with you.

QUOTE (dmbjeff @ Mar 8, 2009 -> 04:07 PM) so this is just speculation on your part? similar to the is poreda the new 5th SP thread i could start? Gordon Beckham is at least 10X more equipped to start at 2B in the Major Leagues than Aaron Poreda is to pitch out of the rotation in the Major Leagues. As of right now I'd say Beckham won't make the team, but if he keeps hitting like this, it is going to be very hard to keep him off it. The Sox are not the Rays and they are not afraid to start the clock on someone they believe is ready. When have Ozzie or Kenny ever put arb years ahead of the product on the field? Aside from the Erstad-Anderson "competition" in '07 and the Sox taking Massett over Wassermann last year, Kenny and Ozzie have always taken the best players in ST. That's how Widger, Logan, Ozuna, Gload, Anderson (last year), Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, etc. all made the team in the past. Gordon Beckham and Josh Kroeger are both definitely in the mix right now despite the Sox going into ST without them in their 2009 plans.

QUOTE (BearSox @ Mar 7, 2009 -> 04:58 PM) I saw DLS pitch and if Nunez's stuff is even comparable to DLS's, then damn the Yankees are stupid for trading him. And from the little of Nunez I have seen this spring, he doesn't compare to DLS. That isn't to say he might not be a decent reliever, but you get DLS healthy and keep him healthy in a bullpen role, and you're talking about potentially a dominant SU man and potential closer. Now for all we know DLS will never be the same after TJ, but I'd still take his potential over Nunez, any day of the week. Gio got "blasted" but that was in a CUP OF COFFEE in the bigs. Lol, remember when Floyd got blasted with his first stint with the White Sox? Take his stats from last year with a grain of salt. And the concerns about Gio's frame aren't that he'd have to move to the pen, but how long he will last as a starter. Right now the biggest concern with Gio is his control. And Gio has much better stuff. The only pitch Marquez has on Gio is his sinking fastball. And Sweeney, in his rookie season (which was sidetracked w/ injuries) showed he was a competent hitter. Something Anderson still has not been able to show. He had a very solid rookie season and there is no reason to think why he won't improve. Sweeney has a much more refined swing and approach at the plate while Anderson still has plenty of holes in his swing and approach. Anderson's also the better defender in CF, but Sweeney is decent out there as well. Also, a platoon of Sweeney and Anderson in center sounds A TON better then any other option we have right now. However, this does remind me of how much we could have used Cunningham right now. KW really put all his money on Anderson. Agree with this. We gave up a lot more talent to get Swisher than we got in return for him, and I don't know how that can be disputed. Gio was one of the top lefty pitching prospects in baseball and DLS had an arm that far exceeds anything in either deal, plus Sweeney wasn't exactly a bust when dealt him. IIRC he was only 22. Whether or not any of the minor leaguers in either deal pan out, talent-for-talent the package to net Swisher blows the return package out of the water. That said, in hindsight I don't regret trading those guys. I just regret getting the player we got. Every time I see Josh Hamilton I think, what if we'd offered the Swisher package? Or Josh Fields? Or what if we'd offered Fields for Volquez and the Swisher package for Hamilton? Maybe those deals don't get made, but it just sucks we gave up so much for so little production. Then again, I saw in another thread where a poster mentioned Torii Hunter passing on the Sox offer of $15M/year for 4 or 5 years (forget how many years it was exactly). I guess it counts that in retrospect we could have been much worse off than we are now, so overall I'm happy with the way things turned out. We wouldn't have been able to move Torii if we'd gotten him, which would've meant no Viciedo and perhaps less money available for the draft this year as well.

QUOTE (lvjeremylv @ Mar 7, 2009 -> 08:58 AM) Yes, I do think there's a better than good chance they were using. You don't go from being mediocre at best (Cotts & Hermanson, as Politte had some success before 2005 like you pointed out) to absolutely lights out, then back to mediocre at best unless you're cutting corners somewhere. Just doesn't happen. You're so right. Players never have career years unless they are on roids. Please, find another sport.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Mar 3, 2009 -> 04:15 PM) This is hilarious BTW. Bradley's injury history Good lord... I still think it's a much better contract than Dempster's or Soriano's, although that is not saying much at all. Maybe Jim Hendry missed the lesson on giving multiyear deals to ex-Rangers who'd been signed to one-year contracts as reclamation projects? I now predict that over the 2009-10 offseason the Cubs give 9 years and $110M combined to Jason Jennings and Andruw Jones.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Mar 6, 2009 -> 02:27 PM) A lot has changed in the 2.5 months since the White Sox dealt away Nick Swisher. The entire scope of economics in the game and player value has been completely flipped... First, let's look over Swisher's contract, which at the time we acquired him seemed like a bargain. Numbers are from mlb4u. Nick Swisher's Contract 2009: $5.3 million 2010: $6.75 million 2011: $9 million (limited No-Trade clause 6 teams) 2012: $10.25 million (limited No-Trade clause 6 teams), $1 million buyout. Wow. Don't those numbers look a bit different now? Orlando Hudson and Bobby Abreu make less than Swisher this year alone. Now let's look we received in return for the pink-bearded one, simply from the perspective of filling holes on our roster. Marquez: I know it's spring, but the kid does look like he has a big-league future at least close to what was originally projected. Betemit: At worst its obvious he's going to be a decent utility player who can crush right-handed hitting. Vs. lefties, pretty useless, but the guy brings a legitimate bat that pitchers have to at least worry about a bit. Nunez: Future reliever maybe, not really a big deal at this point. Combined 2009 salaries $1.3 million + league minimum if Marquez makes the big club. Conclusion This might be one of the best trades of Kenny Williams' career. It was well-known that the White Sox were planning ahead heading into this economic crisis, and they were setting themselves up for things to change in a big way. If Kenny doesn't trade Swisher, he'd be pretty much untradeable right now, with an albatross of a contract in his future. Instead, the White Sox got a guy in Marquez who will be the first man called upon once the inevitable Bartolo Colon strained fat DL stint is upon us, a guy in Betemit who will get a ton of at-bats against right handers, and a piece for the farm in Nunez. Meanwhile, the Yankees have the big question mark of Nick Swisher. Sure, Swish could do well, but regardless, prices himself out of his worth, in my opinion. The landscape of MLB has changed, and KW having the vision to get rid of Swish, let alone get anything in return, was one of the savviest moves I've ever seen. That's only a bad contract if Swisher plays as bad or worse in New York as he did here. The $1M buyout in 2012 makes a good contract until proven otherwise. If that was guaranteed then it would be a different story. Do not let the salaries to OC, Hudson, and Abreu fool you. Those are not market value. If those players had smaller demands going into the offseason they'd have gotten larger guaranteed contracts for more years. Teams were given lower budgets than they had anticipated so they had to take those guys out of their plans and meet their budgets in other ways. http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2...ree-agents.html This list hasn't been updated, but it's mostly correct in terms of the players hitting FA after this season. Look at that list and you're going to see a lot of big salaries coming off the books for teams. Most of those players will be back on much lighter salaries, some probably even on minor league deals. All that bad contract money is going to represent (1) savings for teams who need to save, and (2) more money for players who are actually deserving of that money. Maybe there aren't going to be teams willing to pay more than $6-8M/year for a guy like Hudson, but he's not going to be signing for $3.38M guaranteed (unless he's injured or something). That trend should continue as the economy worsens, where only the good players get good money and deals usually fall into the 1-3 year range. Every year that goes by, bad contracts will be cycled out and replaced with friendlier deals. I suspect a lot less Borass clients as well. Borass had yet another bad year for his non-superstar clients. BTW, if KW and the Sox knew all this was coming, why didn't they eat a couple million of Dye's contract and make that deal for Bailey and prospects? Because it's very possible that the Sox take the $1M buyout on Dye's deal after the season and get nothing. Given all the Figgins and Hudson rumors leading into the winter, I think it's very possible that Kenny had certain plans to say trade Javy, let Griffey, OC, Crede, etc. come off the books, then bring in Hudson and Figgins as well if possible. But then JR gave him a pessimistic budget and he changed course. I think Kenny just tried to assemble a good, winning team while staying within his budget. I don't think he freaked out about salary and tried to dump guys, because had that happened Dye would be in camp with the Reds or Rays right now. The reason Swisher was traded was because he sucked ass and on top of that he couldn't play CF. If you get replaced down the stretch of a playoff run by Dewayne Wise and if you also make more than $1M in salary, then it's time to show your ass the door. Also, Viciedo was a more talented player and the Sox weren't going to pass on him in order to keep Mr. Standthereandlookatstrikethree. *Edit: One other point: most of what goes on when it comes to discussions regarding trades, free agency, etc. is not reported until things are pretty advanced, and a lot of what is said is also bulls*** made up by radio hosts and those evil bloggers Kenny despises. Before anyone feels sorry for OC, Hudson, and Abreu, let's consider that it's highly probable that other teams made offers that were far more lucrative than what those players eventually signed for, but the players themselves, or their agents, turned those deals down. Look at how much money Varitek lost because he listened to Borass and didn't take arb, ditto with Jon Garland and his agent. None of us know what the initial exploratory offers were or what sort of comprise there could have been had these guys not been seeking s*** like 4 yr/$60M or whatever there demands were.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 6, 2009 -> 10:15 AM) Well, first, know that some of those names won't even be in the organization come mid-April. Broadway isn't likely to go to AAA again, for a 4th year, that's like a death sentence. He makes the club or he's shown the door. Richard won't be in AAA nor will Marquez, they are both making the team, one way or the other (though I would prefer Marquez starting in AAA if Colon and Contreras are both healthy, it won't happen). Also, no way they have Cassel repeat AA after he not only spent a full season there, but put up some of the best numbers of any starter in that entire league. If I assume that Broadway is gone, and others are not (which is unlikely, but I can't say who might get traded), it looks like this: AAA: Egbert Poreda Cassel Van Benschoten Torres (possibly goes to pen, in which case, Harrell gets this slot) 'pen will include: Omogrosso, Wassermann, possibly Russell, possibly O'Malley, Link, Lujan AA: Harrell McCulloch (if he is still even in the org, if not, possibly Carter) Ely Long Rasner That's about as far as I can project it right now. I think you're pretty much right on here. Harrell should start in Charlotte with Broadway going to the pen if he's even still with the organization. Hopefully he's gone because the Sox depth is now starting to climb into the higher levels and there's no reason to keep him around as filler. If Egbert, Harrell, Richard, Poreda, Marquez, Ely, Cassel, Rasner, and Van Benschoten haven't all passed Broadway on the prospect/depth chart by now then someone is blind. Carter should make Birmingham's roster no problem. Ely is a no-brainer there too. McCulloch needs to GTFO or head to the pen.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 5, 2009 -> 11:23 PM) I just don't see KW trading or making a play for Halladay. Maybe the time will come when he really does go after another "ace" caliber pitcher via trade or free agency, but his mode since the David Wells/Ritchie/Vazquez/Garcia deals has been to target younger pitchers with potential like Danks and Floyd and hope they develop into aces, rather than spending that kind of money and/or giving up the entire farm system to pull a move off. I won't say it's impossible because economics might conspire against the Blue Jays (and the almost unbeatable competition in the AL East) and force them to make a move, but they're not going to get anything back for the likes of Rolen, Wells and even Rios, so they simply HAVE to get something nice for Halladay. If Halladay becomes available then the Sox, for the first time in a long time, have the talent to make a deal. I see Kenny's position a bit differently in that he'll only give up the talent and spend the money if he knows he can get a guy who is a top-end starter who can also be extended for a reasonable term at a reasonable rate. Halladay is one of those guys who doesn't have Boras representing him and I don't think he's going to be looking for $25M a year, plus he's signed through 2010. A trade plus a 2 year, $36M extension would seem a possibility to me. Halladay has never bolted from Toronto looking for 6+ years. The Sox have Colon's $1-3M, Contreras' $10M, Thome's $13M, Dotel's $6M, and possibly Dye's $11.5M (with a $1M buyout) all coming off the books after this year. In total, that would be $40.5-$43.5M in salary off the books. Plus, with Konerko being signed through 2010 at $12M, if he rebounds this year I think the Sox will be able to move him and get a prospect if they eat $2-4M. Normally the Sox don't do that, but if they have a young kid to replace him (Viciedo, Allen, Flowers possibly) then it makes sense to save an extra $8-10M plus pick up a prospect at the same time. So, this year I could finally see the "Paulie to the Angels" rumors coming true if Paulie hits better and the Angels struggle to find a 1B. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see the Sox cut about $50M+ in salary after this season and then replace about $25-30 of that with bargains, mostly on 1-year deals. That way, once Danks, Floyd, Quentin, and Alexei start to get really expensive, the Sox will have AJ (through 2010), Buehrle (through 2011), and Linebrink (through 2011) either off the books or back at a reduced rate, and they'll be able to pay their arb-eligible players. I think you're right about the economics of it for Toronto. With injuries to their staff combined with the loss of AJ Burnett, they are probably going to be a 4th place team this year behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. They'll also be a fourth place team saddled with lots of bad contracts, and if they are forced to drop salary, it is Halladay and/or Alex Rios that are going to be the ones who'll have to go since nobody is going to take Overbay, Rolen, Wells, or BJ Ryan. They've repeatedly denied that they'll be looking to move players, but it's going to be hard on every team, especially a 4th place team with all these bad contracts that run into 2010 or beyond.

My stab at the 2010 lineup: Figgins CF Getz 2B Quentin RF Giles LF Ramirez 3B Abreu DH Viciedo 1B Pierzynski C Beckham SS Rotation: Halladay Danks Floyd Buehrle Harrell Bullpen: Jenks Thornton Linebrink Richard Nunez Link Egbert Bench: Lillibridge UT Uribe UT Anderson OF Jose Molina C

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Mar 5, 2009 -> 07:46 PM) For all the Broadway haters out that that dislike the guy specifically for his '08 MLB campaign consider this, If you take out his one truly bad outing on Aug 27 (which was a relief outing in which the Sox were already losing and would have still lost even if Broadway gave up no runs) Lance would have had a 3.60 ERA at the MLB level. So in other words, the damage against his ERA was done in a game which it didn't matter anways (never an excuse to not try, but just consider that it didn't matter for the sake of the team). For all those who dislike him because you have observed his pitching style and his "stuff" (or lack of), what kind of sample size do you have? Sure he might not look like a control pitcher in some of his first outings against major leaguers, but that happens often to young rookies who want to overthrow or overcontrol the ball. I really don't think Broadway and Richard are that far apart. With that said, I don't see either one as having much of any decent major league future. I think both will spend a little time in the bigs as 5th starters or long men relievers Broadway hasn't been able to get the job done in Charlotte and he's been there for three years. He's a garbage time pitcher with garbage time stuff who pitches like a garbage time pitcher even in a garbage time league. Clayton Richard IMO at least has a bright future in the Majors as a lefty specialist, but I think he's capable of more. I don't see him as a starter though, but I think he can be a very valuable part of a winning baseball team.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Mar 5, 2009 -> 06:41 PM) You can tell the sox brass is very strict with Harrell in regards to his curveball just comming off of shoulder surgery. I like the kids' arm though... alot. Same here. Today was the first time I'd ever had the chance to see him pitch and I'm now a huge fan. This kid looks like he could be something pretty special, not necessarily an ace, but well... something very nice. Hopefully he stays healthy because if so he's definitely a keeper.

I just got off a conference call with Mr. Wizzo from the Bozo Show, Miss Cleo, Dionne Warwick, and John Edwards. Apparently 2008 marked Broadway's last performance ever in MLB, and furthermore it looks like Mr. Broadway will be off the 40-man roster very soon. The Sox have too much talent to keep that guy on the roster. As for Clayton, I'm pessimistic about his chances as a starter, but I think he could be dynamite against lefties out of the bullpen and I think he has the repertoire to pitch a few innings as a LR also. He seems to have great composure out there also. I wouldn't be surprised to see Richard eventually wind up with a bullpen UT type role, where he could spot-start a doubleheader and go 3-4, then come back a few days later and work the 7th inning, then back to LR, then in to face a tough lefty in the 6th with RISP, etc. I believe every bullpen needs a guy like that and I think Richard might be our guy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 4, 2009 -> 11:47 AM) Beckham really shouldn't make the team out of ST this season regardless of what he does or what anyone else does. Take a little more time with him and buy us another year before he hits Arbitration. Yes, plus also from a trade value perspective I want to see Beckham in the minors and one of these 2B turn into a Major League player. Same with the Fields/Viciedo battle. The Sox have a ton of young talent now and logjams all over the place, and it would sure help to be able to deal Fields and Getz for an ace at the deadline knowing you've got two better players coming up behind them. With the Sox top prospects and young players all primarily being right-handed, I expect Kenny to eye a big deal if we get good numbers out of Fields and Getz/Nix at 2B this season. Allen, Getz, and Danks are the only lefties, and the Beckham-Alexei combo looks like it will end up pushing Getz out of the picture.

QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Mar 4, 2009 -> 11:30 AM) whats the ceiling for jordan danks? is he projected to be a starting cfer one day? c-flowers 1b-viciedo 2b-beckham 3b-fields ss-ramirez lf? cf-danks rf-quentin kw had done a great job in rebuilding our farm system Ceiling? Depends on who you ask, but I guess it would be like Shane Victorino numbers-wise with a few more walks and K's.

Because Thome's contract expires after this year and he's still productive, the only bad contracts on this team are the ones given to Paulie and Mike MacDougal, but MacDougal is also done after this year and if Paulie rebounds then his contract is just above market value with one year left, but it's not an albatross. Contreras' contract may be a bad contract to some degree, but that also finishes after '09 and if he's healthy for a full year he can easily live up to his contract. AJ is definitely at market value IMO, not a bad contract at all. The contracts OC, Hudson, Cruz, Abreu, et. all signed do not reflect actual market value in any way whatsoever. The problem was, the players went out looking for 2007/8 offseason market value or above that figure, and those pricetags frightened GM's. Baseball lost sponsors across the board and as a result ownership lowered budgets. When the FA's out there were asking for a ton, teams passed and went in other directions to meet their budgets. I guarantee that if at the start of the offseason the players mentioned above were asking for more reasonable salaries then they'd have been signed to much better contracts. Look at the money SF gave to Renteria and Howry, or the money KC gave to a bunch of UT players and Farnsworth, or the money the Cubs in their infinite stupidity gave to Dempster and Bradley. These are just three examples of teams who horribly misread the market and would have spent much wiser than they did (although on second thought maybe not the Cubs because they always make idiotic financial decisions when it comes to assembling a roster). Next year IMO the market will have corrected itself. The economy in the US will be worse, but the market for players will be better because expiring contracts around baseball are going to free up a lot of money for good players seeking reasonable contracts. The sign-and-trade possibility will probably also become a permanent fixture until the compensation system is revised. In fact, we may even see compensation-probable players who play on s*** teams in '09 be extended and traded at the same time midseason in order to get around the comp issue over the offseason.