chw42

I see some small differences in the release point hight, maybe a couple of inches at most. There's also a difference in the release point from the top view, also by a couple of inches. His strike zone from the last month looks like he's not elevating the high fastball enough, he also appears to have a lot more very inside pitches. Like I said, I'm not an expert at pitch f/x, but I see differences.

Some more graphs. Current top view pitch trajectory Older top view Current Side view Previous Side view Strike zone plot since Tigers game Strike zone from first month.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:41 PM) What you are saying about his health and age is possible, but I think unlikely. I don't see a statistically significant variance in those diagrams. But I guess we'll see. The current release point is less consistent, more erratic, at least that's what I see. It has a much wider range in the horizontal direction, which could very well affect location. Plus, this almost validates what I said about his arm slot changing, it's more 3/4 now , whereas it was more overhead before.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:33 PM) Whoops. So now who is the backup PG going to be? Derrick will play all 48 minutes.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:25 PM) I love the criticism of Girardi on here. It backs my point that in any loss, the losing fans can point to a lot of things the manager supposedly did wrong. What if the AL rallies in the ninth? If Ortiz makes it to the base a second quicker and they get more on base and ARod hits a pinch homer to win it? Then fans and media are saying it's the best all star game ever and Girardi is a god. Not criticizing anybody, just again saying after every Sox loss you can (and many usually do) blame Oz just as everybody's blaming Girardi after last night's loss, which is like a Sox loss since we are AL fans. The criticism should come from the perspective of the game itself. By the time it was the 9th, there's really nobody left on the bench to pinch run for Ortiz. I'm pretty sure just about any base runner other than David Ortiz makes it to second. I don't know if that's technically on the manager, it's more on the crappy system of the all-star game.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:33 PM) Ha, the Internet message board psychology strikes again. Mock one sentence of my post, that I said shakes is da man. Oh the mocking works to put greg in his place, like it would in the playground, when in reality shakes had a reasonable post and it goes ignored. I really sting from the mockery. Keep it comin. You gotta stop taking things so personal.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:16 PM) Is this a precursor to something bigger? Like...?

In his only full year, Jeremy Reed did produce 2.2 WAR, mostly because of his defense, which I'm pretty sure is no longer what it used to be.

The guy who hit .370 in AAA is back!

FanGraphs doesn't have either on their top 10 lists.

If Redick actually plays 30 minutes a game and plays at the level he did last season, I'm thinking he can average 12-14 points in this offense.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 12:07 PM) Not that I've seen, but that doesn't mean you're wrong, maybe its just too subtle and I haven't noticed. I've in fact marveled over the years at how precise and consistent he has been, mechanically, over the years. And how easy his motion seems for a guy throwing 97. I think if his mechanics have changed in any significant way, you'd see one or more of his velocity, angle of attack on pitch, or movement change. And I haven't seen any of that so far this year. Looks to me like its just a combination of him slumping a bit, leaving pitches up, and not throwing the breaking ball enough. Also, he seems lately to use too many give-up pitches in pitcher's counts, going WAY high to try to get a nibble, or WAY low, when no one will bite on those. Just my take. Thornton's fastball release points since that game against the Tigers. Thornton's fastball release points during first month before elbow issue. His current release point is lower and more erratic in the horizontal direction. The older release point was more consistent on a horizontal basis, but had more of a variation in height. I'm not a pitching expert or a pitch f/x expert by any means, but there definitely is a difference in the release point. And since he has been worse and worse looking since his arm issues, it can only mean that he's changing this to compensate for something. Thornton's not getting any younger, he's reaching his mid 30s. I think we're at the point where health could be an issue.

Toronto picked up Gonzalez for a cheap deal this year too. They've literally gotten two very good young pieces in Lewis and Escobar for virtually nothing this year.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 11:57 AM) He doesn't need rest. He's been Easy 97 all along, and his mechanics haven't changed either. What he needs is to throw his slider more than 5% of the time, and to get some pinpoint back in his control, which I think will happen with time. I'm not worried. The lack of control is most likely due to a change in his mechanics. If I'm not mistaken, he's changed his throwing slot a little bit.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 11:49 AM) Is Gonzalez even a better defender than Escobar? Yunel is pretty good over there, I'd guess top 5 in baseball defensively at SS. He's been great this year. Plus/Minus has him at +11, UZR at +4. Gonzalez is like a +3. Not a huge difference between the two. But this is such a shortsighted move by the Braves.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 11:49 AM) I remember hearing that Escobar has been grinding Bobby Cox's gear for a while with his struggles, mental lapses, and attitude, so I bet that played a major part on it. Jon Heyman's twitter: SI_JonHeyman bobby cox has to be thrilled to be rid of underachieving space cadet yunel escobar. alex gonzalez is a nice early going away gift for cox. Are they seriously going to let a manager that's retiring next year make a decision for them that could affect the team for the next three years? I don't care if he's Bobby Cox, that's not a good idea.

QUOTE (scenario @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 11:46 AM) Take out the Detroit game and see how the numbers look. xFIP and FIP aren't exactly dependent on runs scored. That one home run he gave up definitely hurt, but that wasn't the main point for why Thornton's been regressing. The big line drive rate is the first thing that is scary. The second thing is the lack of Ks and his decrease in strikes thrown. If you watch the guy pitch, you can tell he's not the same dominant guy from earlier in the year.

Can't believe they gave away a 27 year old guy who just came off a 4 WAR season at the SS position. That kind of production is hard as hell to find. He's also improved his defense a lot, the bat will come back. This reminds me a lot of the Alex Rios deal last year. Of course, Escobar doesn't have the terrible contract, but it's like the Braves just gave up a guy in his prime because of one bad half season. I think there's also been some stuff about how Cox doesn't like Escobar or that he's too lazy. Something of that sort. Still, Cox is gone next year, new manager comes in, who knows what happens. Bottom line, you don't give up a phenom at a premium position for an overachieving veteran and some prospects.

Gonzalez can play some good D still, but that bat of his won't continue to rattle off a .500 SLG.

Escobar will be under team control for another three years. Seriously, WTF were they thinking?

Uh, WHAT? You can't be f***ing serious. What a steal for Toronto.

Thornton's been off ever since that elbow issue he had. That's part of the reason why I didn't want to see him pitch in last night's game. Let's take a look at these numbers. Thornton's April: 0.8 FIP, 1.85 xFIP, 25% LD Rate, 37.5% FB Rate, 13.89 K/9, 69% strikes Thornton's May: 1.39 FIP, 2.25 xFIP, 10% LD Rate, 35% FB Rate, 11.45 K/9, 68% strikes Thornton's June: 3.61 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, 34.6% LD Rate, 23.1 FB Rate, 11.7 K/9, 63% strikes Thornton's July: 1.86 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 36.4% LD Rate, 45.5% FB Rate, 9K/9, 72% strikes I see a very, very scary trend going here. The high FIP was due to that one outing against Detroit, mainly. But it's clear that ever since June, he's not been the same pitcher. He went from a 1 FIP/2 xFIP pitcher to a 3 FIP and 3 xFIP pitcher, that's a huge difference. One states dominance, the other just states that he's good. However, the issue is in the line drive rate and his K/9. Look at the increase LD% took in June and July. I think we've seen lots of this. Balls have been hit hard off Matt, but usually, they're right at people. This is simply a scary trend, because your luck can only run for so long. He's also starting to miss bats less, his K rate in July is only 9 Ks per 9, down from his dominant 14K/9 early on in the year. Plus, go look at his strike%. It's up in July, but we're only half-way through, but we obviously saw a big dip in June. I'm not too optimistic about what's to come for Thornton, he needs rest, he needs to regain that dominance he had earlier in the year. If these trends that I put up continue, Thornton might end up with some very bad outings in the future in some big games. We don't want that.

All of Carlos' issues were mechanical or mental. He's not lacking in physical talent. He's still the same hitter he was in 2008.

When I was making this, I realized how many go-ahead home runs Konerko's had this year. I don't like the term clutch, but it's safe to say that Konerko's had a lot of late inning clutch home runs this year.

Phil Hughes got the loss, so when people look at the box score, they won't even remember Matt Thornton.