chw42

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 09:24 AM) Bill James is going to appear on the Simpsons this season. Does that mean that Sabermetrics have gone from being the new thing to being tired and old? Bill James would seem incredibly out of place in a Simpsons episode.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 09:10 AM) Just ask Dan Haren. Dan Haren was killing the ball, he had a .390 something wOBA.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 09:07 AM) At this point in his career I'd expect Kotsay-like numbers. It's hard to have a .640 OPS. It really is.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 12:40 AM) Lillibomb and Teahen are hilarious They're a lot better in the clubhouse than Kotsay, I imagine.

If it means getting rid of Kotsay, yes.

QUOTE (knightni @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 09:52 PM) Out of curiosity, how do Kotsay's batting stats compare to most SPs in the National League? Are there any pitchers batting better than him? Yes there are...haha. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...010&month=0 Mike Leake and Dan Haren are both A LOT better.

lol Ozzie, if by better numbers you mean .258/.339/.393 with a .732 OPS based on his .266 xBABIP, okay. Still doesn't deserve to DH, no way in hell.

And rightfully so. Gavin has grown so much over these past two years.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 09:40 PM) In regards to the bolded: Play Vizquel at 3rd everyday (with Viciedo there on Omar days off), use Teahen as the DH vs. RHP, maybe at 1B sometimes to give Paulie some rest, maybe even RF at times so you can DH Q. Just don't play him at 3rd, you don't have to in order to get him playing time. As for "it's not broke, don't fix it", that's one of the dumbest arguments of all time as I'm sure you know since you pointed out the 2005 example, for instance. I certainly hope nobody in our organization is dumb enough to think that. Yes, the team overall isn't broke, but you can still fix the parts that need a tune up. And the DH, at the very least, needs one of those. Saying don't fix if it ain't broke is like saying you're satisfied with a Toyota Camry instead of going for a BMW.

Don Cooper the magic man.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 08:16 PM) What, not the EJackulator? I totally said something similar...like EJaxculate, a couple of days ago.

Great start by EJax thus far. The control has been just awesome. It's just one start, but it appears Don Cooper's already paying off.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:50 PM) Kotsay had an OPS of .384 in April and .504 in July. Freddy Garcia has a career OPS of .434. Just sayin. Such a joke he is. Apparently, Carlos Quentin would have a .937 OPS if he wasn't unlucky like Mr. Kotsay, according to my "What IF?" calculator. I don't see people complaining about Quentin being "unlucky".

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:45 PM) Are you a member at fangraphs? If not you should be. Yes I'm a registered member.

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:31 PM) Sharing is caring. Just saying... It's not a standalone app yet. I'm working on it, it'll calculate an expected BABIP and then based off that, it will spit out a expected AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Maybe I'll port this onto C and make an .exe when I have time. FWIW, it is only good for certain types of players, like guys who have really low BABIPs.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 05:03 PM) That was a lot of work just to say, "Yeah, the guy really does suck." It's still good research though. I made a mistake, I'm trying to incorporate this whole projection system into one application and I did something wrong with the home runs. But it appears that he's really supposed to hit .258 with a .339 OBP. And it turns out his new OPS that is corrected is actually .732. So he's even crappier.

I almost regret posting what I just did about Kotsay's xBABIP and his new projected numbers. You know somebody's just going to put that to use in a bad way...

With my newly programmed xBABIP calculator, I found out that Mark Kotsay's expected batting average on balls in play is .266. His current batting average on balls in play is .217. That's a nice difference of 49 points. Kotsay has hit 217 balls in play that have not been home runs. So he has 44 hits that are not home runs based on his current BABIP. If we take the .266 figure up to those 217 balls in play, he would have 58 hits + 6 home runs, or 64 hits. 64 divided by his 234 at bats is a .274 batting average. His new OBP would be .356. Looking at how Kotsay gets his hits, we can derive a possible slugging percentage. 66% of Kotsay's hits are singles. 22% are doubles. 12% are home runs. So if we take that up to the new figure of 64 hits, we would have 42 singles, 14 doubles, 8 home runs. This results in a SLG of .436. That results in an OPS of .792. This would be a wOBA of .346 and would be 2.86 runs above replacement. Take that factor to his WAR and he would worth +0.2 wins instead of the -1 win figure. I know, I know, this is all quite shocking, but keep in mind Kotsay is not your average Major League Baseball player, so the he may not be hitting line drives all that hard or fly balls all that far. He has been unlucky, but he should not be perceived as a valuable player. Even if this was a perfect world, Mark Kotsay would be a replacement level DH.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 03:22 PM) Shoot that over to the Ranger. He doesn't care for things like WAR, UZR, etc. He'll just tell you about how "subjective" UZR is while telling you of his opinions.

Come on Ejax, prove most of us wrong.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 01:57 PM) Not the best photo of Rihanna I must say. Most things I see her in look amazing but the photo they used was meh. Matt Kemp's relationship with Rihanna should probably explain his horrible season this year.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 11:28 AM) After watching some video clips, sale does not hold his shoulder in internal rotation (W position) near as long as Strasberg. While the mechanics aren't ideal, Sale's tendency for injury is less than that of Strasberg. Well this is very good news then.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 4, 2010 -> 12:23 PM) General thought around here is that Paulie is leaving and Dayan is your new 1B. I think this organization would love to play Dayan at 3B. Much more valuable.

Color me selfish or whatever, but I almost don't want to see Paulie get too many MVP votes. That could mean more money next year to bring him back.