Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 10:54 AM) I honestly have no idea. There are articles out there from 2016 about how there had literally never been an MVP who fell off as fast as him and at the age he did. If he has a strong 2017, I could see him anywhere from 3-5 years. If his numbers drop back a little bit, I could see him getting much less than that. A three year deal would be amazing IMO. Your talking about his age 32 to 34 seasons. I think he could be roughly a 3 WAR player during that time. And dude would be the perfect veteran to have around all these kids. I always wanted to see the guy in a Sox uniform and I’m all for it if on team friendly terms.

How many years do we think Cutch might get next year? He might be a guy you play in CF for a year and then move to a corner when Robert comes up in hopefully early 2020. Depending on the years and price, I’d be all for him as a transition piece to an internal option like Adolfo or Rutherford. Good god, imagine this lineup. Yes, I also included Machado because why not 1. McCutchen, LF 2. Moncada, 2B 3. Machado, 3B 4. Abreu, 1B 5. Jimenez, RF 6. Delmonico, DH 7. Robert, CF 8. Collins, C 9. Anderson, SS

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 04:48 PM) It’s premature to tap into the top prospects, especially the pitchers for Yelich. No prospects are sure things but as it stands, Eloy and Robert are very likely legit MLB level. On the pitching side, even though we have a bunch of depth, there is less certainty, especially w Rodon hurt. So why would we send Cease and Hansen who arguably have the best stuff in our system outside of Kopech? I’d rather wait and see what we have from our pitching a little longer before dipping into it. Agree with this. We have pitching depth, but #1 & #2 starters aren’t easy to come by. Hansen has that type of potential and we’re going to need it if god forbid Rodon never takes that next step or Giolito & Lopez settle in as #3 types (or worse). And I personally don’t think OF should be an area of priorization right now. I have a ton of confidence in Jimenez & Robert becoming quality major leaguers if not legit superstars. Just need one more and we have quite a few interesting prospects plus a guy in Nicky Delmonico that I think will surprise a lot of people next year. I know talents like Yelich aren’t always readily available, but I’d rather see what we have in-house in 2018 and go shopping the following offseason if need be, preferably with cash instead of prospects if at all possible.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 02:54 PM) Scott Merkin‏Verified account @scottmerkin How does Engel feel approaching the '18 season? "This is the most excited I've been from an offensive standpoint in my entire career. If Spring Training started today, I would feel like I'm in a better spot than I've ever been, and I just believe in what I'm doing." This comes across as a Gordon Beckham quote.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 03:01 PM) Forget where I read and apologize if I misread. It was a few days ago via one of the sox beat guys. Clicked the link on twitter and read the article. don't remember which though... I remember him reading that he said there are more moves to be made. Didn't elude to anything big like a Yelich, made it sound more like small deals from what I remember. But I remember thinking it was odd saying that the team wouldn't be as it's currently constructed in a few weeks. Seemed like an odd statement. Again could have misread.. That article aside, I just have a feeling that Yelich is coming to the Southside. It just fits too well into what he keeps repeating. About not making a deal unless it has a strong long term effect. I took that article to mean more guys on our team could be moved (i.e Abreu & Avi).

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 02:55 PM) How could you say no? Rutherford is coming off of a horrible season and if he shows no improvement is barely a top 30 org prospect. Cease by all accounts is destined to be a closer. It would be selling high on Hansen who had a great year but is by no means a lock to be a top pitcher. Yelich gives you cost certainty and flexibility heading into 2019 free agency class. I think trading Hansen is dangerous until we know what we have in Giolito & Lopez. Maybe next year it’s a different story, but I’m not giving up one of my few guys who has a chance to be a legit TOR starter. We can always buy an OF in free agency if need be, high end starting pitching is a different story.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 02:55 PM) In a year Cease could be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball if he stays healthy. Say what? Hansen just had a monster year and won’t come close to sniffing the top 10. Cease has way too many red flags to vault into the top 10 based on one season alone.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 08:16 PM) I'm still hoping and rooting for Engel. His upside is much higher than the other candidates. I understand that he needs to make more contact, but he has the best tools. That Podcast, for which I provided the link, sounds very encouraging. Delmonico made a special point of mentioning how much he has improved, over the winter and how great he looks, in the batting cage. I'm really looking forward to seeing what adjustments he has made. I’m probably Nicky Delmonico’s biggest fan on this site, but I could give two s***s what he say about a teammate. I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment Lillian, but hopefully Engel can prove me wrong.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 08:06 PM) I would call a .316 OBP effective. I think he will be exposed as many utility players are. He does well with limited time and proper playing situations and will probably revert closer to his career OBP of .270 than his performance last year. Don't get me wrong, i think he has a place it's just not as a dependable starter. This may be the case with Tilson. But for everything you've said his MiLB stats are better than Garcia's and the fact still remains that they have no idea what he will do in the MLB. I just think that ina developing year why see more of Garcia when they can see what they have in Tilson. Garcia will be around as a utility guy at worst, why not see how others do, they aren't trying to win this year. Play Tilson in CF and let Garcia develop in his role as the utility guy because that's where he will be in a couple of years when the Sox are competing. Limited playing time? From April 6th to June 15th he got 200 plate appearances. He was practically an everyday starter before he got hurt. During that period he put an .804 OPS & wRC+ of 115. It honestly doesn’t seem like you followed him very closely last year. And again, you continue to ignore Leury’s AAA stats in 2015 & 2016, which were better than Tilson’s AAA numbers. Furthermore, Leury has much better physical tools than Tilson and offers much more versatility. If Leury can come anywhere close to the numbers I mentioned above, he could be a poor man’s Ben Zobrist and that would be incredibly valuable. There are legit reasons to believe Leury is finally tapping into his potential and he deserves everyday at-bats to see what he really is. I don’t need to give 600 at-bats to Charlie Tilson to know he won’t play a significant role on our next playoff team or become a valuable trade chip.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:25 PM) This is your opinion as you noted. However, no one knows so they need to find out in a development year. Garcia's entire history for the past 13 years (minors included) is decent to below average wherever he has been. Garcia has a spot on a good team as a utility guy. The Sox know this. No one has any idea what Tilson will be. It's the same discussion with all of the young players this year. This is the year to find out if they have a place in the MLB and can contribute to a good team or are they just fillers. I gotta disagree with you here. Leury’s AAA stats the last few years have actually been good and greatly exceeded Tilson’s AAA numbers. He was a league average hitter last year in the majors despite being hindered by an injury. He’s only 26 years right now (27 in March) and can most definitely get better. He is also a far superior athlete than Tilson. Again, this “need to find out” what Tilson is ignores the fact that the vast majority of scouts don’t believe he will ever be much more than a 4th OF and does so at the expense of three guys with much higher ceilings (Cordell & Engel). We don’t even know at this point if Tilson is the same player he once was and if his speed, a critical part of his game, will return in full. I really don’t get the allure of handing Tilson starting role.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 03:25 PM) Vincent Goodwill‏Verified account @vgoodwill 11m11 minutes ago After a second round of tests, Kris Dunn has been diagnosed with a concussion, according to sources. As of now he won't be traveling with the team and will be evaluated at a later date Keep Dunn out a week or two. Trade Niko, Lopez, Grant, & Holiday for picks/expiring assets. Give Payne 40 minutes a game. Snag a top six pick in the draft.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 03:32 PM) I agree but top 100 is a big deal. Hard to make it following a very down year Most of the 2017 mid-season lists had him as a top 40 to 50 prospect. Hard to imagine them completely dropping him off after one bad half unless they want to acknowledge they completely whiffed with their original evaluations.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 03:03 PM) That he's decent. He's nothing special. They don't know about Tilson. As long as they are "wasting" another season on development, they may as well see what they have in Tilson. They know what they have in Garcia, a decent player. That is the rationale for Tilson. If they were trying to compete this year, Garcia would be the safer option. But it's not so they should see what Tilson has. Tilson's upside is only a decent player IMO, so why displace a guy that has already proven to be that? If Leury can show his offensive numbers pre-injury weren't a fluke, he can be a perfect transition piece to Robert or a valuable trade chip given his defensive versatility. I really think Tilson ends up being nothing more than a 4th OF and not necessarily a great one since he doesn't really have the arm for RF.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 02:37 PM) The Sox thought enough of him to bring him to the MLB after the trade. He has done all he can in the MiLB. He just needs to prove he's healthy. All of the other CF candidates have shown serious flaws in their game. Why not give him the shot? He is the unknown and they should use the season to see if he has anything. What flaw did Leury show last year other than possibly health? And if that’s his flaw, that same thing is Tilson’s kryptonite. I can’t see any rationale argument for Tilson over Leury.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 10:27 AM) My only question is whether he's a catcher. If he is, he's an All Star in my opinion. He spent the offseason straightening out the hitch in his swing. The knocks were the strikeout rate and batting average. This player is good though: 2017 Winston-Salem: .223/.365/.443 118K, 76BB, 17 homers 130 wRC+ and .367 wOBA 2017 Birmingham (small sample): .235/.422/.471 .414 wOBA and 166 wRC+. 2016: .885 OPS after his college season. Fixing the hitch is what will make or break him. The strike zone judgment is elite, just needs to put the bat on the ball better.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 09:59 AM) Buster Olney‏Verified account @Buster_ESPN 5h5 hours ago Some experienced agents strongly believe this: slow-moving market is not because of collusion; rather, the issue of tanking--the growing number of teams choosing to not participate in competition for players and wins--was not addressed. $ pocketed by teams, and not spent. I mean, that’s totally what’s causing this. It’s really the reason the MLB needs a salary floor. Loosing the luxury tax strings will further impact parity.

I do not get the Tilson love on this board. He needs to prove himself again after missing like a season and a half before I even consider handing him a starting job. The OF to begin 2018 should be Delmonico in LF, Leury in CF, & Avi in RF. Tilson should have to compete against Engel & Cordell for a reserve role. If he wins that and does well as a reserve, we can djnd ways to get him more at-bats. I just don’t see much upside with Tilson.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 06:51 PM) Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS. Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him. Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game. No, I’m projecting him to stay healthy if used primarily as a DH. WAR is a counting stat and Martinez has only played 120 games in three of his past four seasons. Maybe that’s a poor assumption, but I’d have to think keeping him off the field will cause him to miss less games. And if he can play close to 160 games and maintain a wRC+ of 150 (his average since 2014) or so, I feel pretty confident he can be a 4 WAR player for those first few seasons.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 06:21 PM) This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market. You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment. That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals. Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage. I get it. However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes. The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves. I think Martinez may be one such opportunity. Great post and I 100% agree! Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons: fWAR. Value. Surplus. 2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M 2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M 2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M) Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M 19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAV, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency.

I'll happily pay $20M/year for a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR DH if that's what we think he is going forward. Honestly think he could be a Nelson Cruz type steal in this market.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 03:35 PM) I think Anderson, Burger and cease would get it done to be quite honest. See, that's probably the most I'd consider giving up right now. I hate the idea of selling low on Anderson, but Yelich is a special player. If we did such a move, who would play SS? Sanchez? Would they consider moving Leury there temporarily? The problem with trading Anderson is we don't have as much IF depth as some people would like to believe. We'd pretty much have to add a SS or 3B in free agency in 2019, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but does put some pressure on us to fill a need in order to be competitive.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 03:37 PM) In 2016 it would have been better for him if he never played the field by about 1/2 a win. In 2017 he would have been about 1/2 a win worse. Do you mind sharing your math? I'd love to see how all this is calculated to maybe do this myself in the future.

Since Balta only speaks in WAR, can someone calculate what Martinez's fWAR would be if he was simply a DH? I honestly think the runs he cost his team defensively might be worse than the DH positional adjustment.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 03:17 PM) WTF is an "Elite DH"? Like that's the worst statement I want to see to describe a guy we're signing. "He's a wonderful player in the tiny, limited role we want him for!" Jackson was worth his money in 2013. It was still a terrible move. How exactly is 600+ plate appearances a "tiny, limited" role? If he can be a top 10 hitter, who the f*** cares if he plays the field? You think the Red Sox regret having David Ortiz? How about us with Jim Thome? Martinez is a terrible fielder anyways, so moving to DH full-time might actually improve his value. I'll happily pay $20M/year for an elite hitter regardless of where he plays.

If they can sign Cousins, I'll start believing again. Until then I'll assume they'll land the 2018 version of Carlos Boozer and lock in a long-term stay in NBA hell.