Chicago White Sox

Yes, go to leaders and filter FBv. Shows up as 95.8 for 2018.

He’s at 95.8 per Fangraphs so he falls just short.

There will always be guys with Nathan Eovaldi’s stuff available for 4/$60M or so? Here’s the top 10 average fastballs for pitchers with over 100 innings last year: 97.6 - Severino - 5.7 WAR 97.4 - Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR 97.2 - Eovaldi - 2.2 WAR 96.6 - Glasnow - 0.7 WAR 96.6 - Cole - 6.3 WAR 96.4 - Foltynewicz - 3.9 WAR 96.2 - Buehler - 3.3 WAR 96.0 - deGromm - 8.8 WAR 95.9 - Wheeler - 4.1 WAR 95.8 - Snell - 4.6 WAR Outside of Glasnow, that’s some seriously elite company. How often do these guys reach free agency at 28 and what would the cost be? I’m guessing Cole will command $200M+ next year. Imagine the cost to acquire one of these guys via trade. I strongly disagree with your assumption that these type of arms are always readily available in free agency and can be had for any reasonable sum of money. And yes, I’m perfectly aware that Eovaldi has been a 3 WAR pitcher most of his career when healthy. He also didn’t have a cutter back then and that’s totally changed his game. Ignoring the playoffs, he was on pace for a 5 WAR season with the Red Sox. I think in the Statcast era you have to accept that pitchers can completely reinvent themselves overnight. So either we can default to his career numbers or assess his new repertoire & determine if maybe he’s a new, more impactful pitcher going forward.

Look, I can totally respect this viewpoint, but I also think a team in our position has to take some calculated risks when it comes to starting pitching. Eovaldi made 60 starts across 2014 & 2015. He made 21 starts in both 2016 & 2018 with a Tommy John sandwiched in-between. When he’s not recovering from elbow surgery he’s mostly taken the ball every five days. Now that’s he shown his stuff has come back after a second TJS, the biggest question with him is will he ever need a third? The gap between his first & second TJS was nine years. Unless you have concerns over his postseason usage (which is fair), I think it’s reasonable to expect he can last four years before blowing out his elbow again. The fact that he’s cut his slider usage in half gives me even more confidence. Having said that, I can’t ignore there is real risk there, but look at the contract Corbin just got. Premium pitching goes for big dollars and big years, even with limited track records. Eovaldi’s injury history is going to cap his total years and likely his AAV to some extent. I doubt we’ll be able to get a pitcher with his upside for anything close to that amount next season. IMO, if we’re unwilling to go big after Cole or Sale next year (or convinced we can land them), Eovaldi is the perfect guy to roll the dice on.

I know it’s early, but shocking there isn’t an elite pitcher in this class. Seems like someone will likely breakout next year and that should put us in tremendous spot at #3. Much more optimistic about picking high in this draft than last year.

I’ll be honest, but those guys scare me immensely. My personal view is big money pitchers are something we should avoid. Despite his generally good health, Sale just seems like a guy who could go down at any time and Bumgarner is simply not the guy he once was. If I were to go after anyone next year it would be Cole, but he will have a ton of suitors and is going to get paid ridiculously. So instead of taking on a gigantic, long-term contract I’d rather role the dice on someone like Eovaldi. He’s at least got the potential to be a 4+ WAR starter and will come much cheaper. Yes, he’s risky from a durability standpoint, but I’m hoping him relying on his slider less will help in that regard. And as I mentioned previously, his stuff can play up in the bullpen if need be.

Yeah, I wouldn’t go more than four years to be honest. And the rumor is the Yankees won’t go more than three. The Phillies seem to prefer a lefty, but I wouldn’t rule them out. The Astros & Red Sox (if they have the money) seem like the real threats.

Rumor is the Yankees won’t go four years for him. Not sure about the Red Sox or even the Astros though.

The more I read up on Eovaldi, the more I’m convinced he’s the guy we should add. His addition of a cutter has been a total game-changer. MLBTradeRumors projects him to get 4/$60M which is a risk we should be willing take. You’d be getting his age 29 to 32 seasons and a guy that could help anchor a young rotation. Also, with new arsenal he’s a guy who could be moved to the bullpen if his durability issues continue and still earn his paycheck. I really hope he’s the guy we’re targeting.

I honestly was getting Preller flashbacks early today when reading about the Nimmo for Realmuto rumor.

He’s certainly left-handed, an ace not so much.

I think it’s hard to call Burdi a wasted pick without the benefit of hindsight. If healthy, his ceiling is as high as any reliever. We need to see how he looks this spring before ripping the pick.

I love this idea! ?

I think you’re missing some context here. I’ve pointed out in here & perhaps other threads that the Phillies front office is said to be conservative. The Phillies were always going to amongst the favorites for the whales, but it wasn’t until their owner came out and said “we’re going to spend some stupid money” that they became the big bad wolf. The reason I believe this to be promising (at least for Harper) is the Phillies have positioned they won’t be topped (including for Corbin) and then proceeded to be topped. As eager as their owner may be to spend, I truly don’t believe he’s going to pull a Tom Hicks and bid against himself to ensure they have the biggest offer. And if it’s true the front office is putting some guardrails in place, then that’s a win for us IMO.

The Phillies capped themselves at five years. How would that extra year prevent them from adding Harper or Machado? They decided in this case they have their limits and now that is confirmed.

Lol...Bruce Lavine is somehow breaking there is no opt-out in the deal.

I expect us to be heavily involved in both of these guys as well.

There have been rumors that the Phillies front office is fairly conservative and isn’t big on spending huge dollars or going too many years with players. If this is evidence of that, our chances to land a whale are much better than we originally thought. That remains to be seen, but this gives me a little more optimism.

My optimism will never fade, that’s for sure!

Wow, we finally agree on something!

Because it shows they have their limits.

God bless you fathom, you could a negative in winning the lottery.

100% agree.

I don’t think they can afford both, especially after their catcher moves.

I said Yankees or Nationals a few days ago in a different thread. This is great news and shows the Phillies have their limits.