Chicago White Sox

Getting 2.4 fWAR out of Robert over the course of a full healthy season would be horrible, so not sure how you jumped to that conclusion. Also, while I’m not going to defend the accuracy of projection systems like Steamer, they also assume that young players get better over time and aren’t forever their rookie seasons or even their first cups of coffee. Unfortunately, many fans lack any sort of patience and immediately write off young players who struggle early on unless they are of the top 100 type variety.

These aren’t my projections and I agree they seem optimistic, which is actually quite fascinating since projection systems like Steamer are almost always bias to the conservative side of things. That being said, some of these guys hit very well in the minors last year and that’s being reflected in the projections for Vargas, Sosa, Baldwin, & Quero. Vaughn surprises me the most, because that’s a huge step up for him fWAR wise, but even then it’s assuming his wOBA next year simply matches his xwOBA this past year which isn’t all that crazy.

If you sign a Fedde type signing, you are taking 21 starts away from the other nine options I listed short of that specific player getting injured. And if that’s the case, I’d rather just give those starts to some combo of Nastrini, Bush, or Adams. They are all 25 years old and need to get shots before the higher ceiling guys like Schultz, Smith, Taylor, & possibly Iriarte begin to arrive. And if one of them hits, it’s a much better asset than what we’d likely be able to flip the Fedde type signing for at the deadline. A Flexen type signing? Sure, which is why I said I’d be willing to sign a cheap swingman to place in the pen. And don’t get me wrong, I’d also do a bunch of minor league deals so we have some depth in Charlotte in the event of multiple injuries. But I don’t want Venable forced into using a rotation spot on a veteran because he’s being paid $7.5M/year and we’re hoping to flip him.

Alright, switching over to the rotation, I think the Sox should hold off making any major additions here. And by major, I obviously don’t mean good, just ones that will require a commitment of say $5M or more that will force them into a spot regardless of other options. I’d be good with signing some sort of veteran swingman on the cheap that can slot into the rotation in a pinch, but I’d prefer leaving all five spots open for our younger, more controllable arms. The reason for this is I like our in-house options and feel like we have a large enough quantity of guys to survive a season. I’m going to break this down into two sections. First, I want to go through the four guys I think deserve spots baring injury or truly disastrous spring trainings. Davis Martin (28 years old | 4.02 xERA in Y24 | 1.9 fWAR in Y25) Jonathon Cannon (24 years old | 4.37 xERA in Y24 | 1.4 fWAR in Y25) Drew Thorpe (24 years old | 4.68 xERA in Y24 | 1.5 fWAR in Y25) Sean Burke (25 years old | 3.91 xERA in Y24 | 1.7 fWAR in Y25) While this may not be the most exciting group of pitchers, they all project to be useful major league starters based on their Steamer 600 projections above and their success last year in admittedly SSS. All four of these guys should have six years of control remaining which makes them potential assets. Giving them each 32 starts next year (baring trades or injury) should be a priority for us. That leaves the #5 spot to fill and we have a lot of options there. IMO, this should be an open competition heading into spring training between the first three guys listed below. The last two guys should not be in the Opening Day mix, but could and should be pushing for rotation spots later in the season. Nick Nastrini (25 years old | Majors | TBD org | 0.5 fWAR in Y25) Ky Bush (25 years old | Majors | #9 org prospect | -0.9 fWAR in Y25) Mason Adams (25 years old | AAA | #10 org prospect | 0.3 fWAR in Y25) Jairo Iriarte (23 years old | Majors | #6 org prospect | -0.3 fWAR in Y25) Noah Schultz (21 years old | AA | #1 org prospect | 2.6 fWAR in Y25) The Steamer 600 projections above aren’t obviously pretty for the guys other than Schultz, but I think they are over-indexing on SSS in AAA / major leagues for the most part. I personally think Bush & Adams are close to being ready and are very much capable of being productive major leaguers next year. I have no idea what happened with Nastrini last season, but he went from a fringe top 100 prospect to a huge question mark. That being said, if no one grabs the role in spring training, I’d be ok with using Nick as a placeholder in the #5 spot for a month or so. See what you have and if he fails, then try him as a reliever. As for Iriarte & Schultz, while I don’t want them in the OD mix, I also don’t want to block them with a mediocre veteran. If / when they are ready, they should be given spots because their ceilings are so much greater than the other guys mentioned above.

10 WAR improvement other than losing the production Crochet would have provided, ignoring any other options we currently have at those positions, and assuming those three guys repeat those levels of production. You’re likely getting two 2 win players and a backup caliber catcher for what should be a 5 win pitcher. From a trade perspective it’s likely an even swap of fWAR next year, but from an improvement I’m not even sure we’d be better when it’s all said and done. And no, people are not nuts to want elite positional prospects over average major league players with 4 to 5 years of control. For example, Steamer 600 projects Campbell at 3.0 fWAR next year as a rookie vs. 2.2 fWAR for Abreu. And you get basically 7 years of control with Campbell. Obviously there is no guarantee with any given prospect, but the odds suggest a premium prospect like Campbel will likely outproduce the average starter. Ultimately, we should be trying to amasses talent that will hit around the same time to optimize our next window. Using our best trade chip to get a bunch of average players in hope of putting a 60 win team on the field next year is a poor long-term strategy. We simply don’t have enough talent in our org right now to accelerate things.

And like I said earlier in this thread, I wanted him as part of a Cease package last year. Does that count as being willing to trade something for him?

Damn, someone ate their Wheaties this morning with all these hard flexes. You word for word asked me if I would trade a better prospect than Eder for Rice and I replied “Sure, it depends on the prospect”. You’re obsessed with the Eder part of the idea (which I came up with in two seconds because an MLB.com writer had him as part of a mock trade to the Yankees) whereas the point was trying to buy low on Rice. And while I disagree on Eder’s value, I would trade a better pitching prospect for him like I already stated. But keep on flexing brother and get that anger out of your system.

I seriously doubt he could be moved through waivers. Have you seen the type of guys that get picked up on the regular?

Oh I fully agree, but I would if I were the Sox

Sorry, that’s supposed to be for Robert, which makes a big difference.

Same article. He’s just got very weird views on things and doesn’t understand in the Red Sox deal that we don’t want a bunch of guys under control for four or five years.

I guess no one should ever trade for relievers then.

Jim Bowden proposal in The Athletic: White Sox Give: CF Luis Robert White Sox Get: 3B Cam Collier (20 years old | Y22 1st round pick | #5 org prospect) SS Tyson Lewis (18 years old | Y24 2nd round pick | #9 org prospect) RHP Luke Holman (21 years old | Y24 CB-B pick | #11 to #15 org prospect) I would accept that offer in a heartbeat.

Jim Bowden proposal in The Athletic: White Sox Give: LHP Garrett Crochet White Sox Get: RF Wilyer Abreu (25 years old | 5 years of control | 114 wRC+ | 3.1 fWAR) 1B Triston Casas (24 years old | 4 years of control | 119 wRC+ | 0.6 fWAR) CA Connor Wong (28 years old | 4 years of control | 110 wRC+ | 1.1 fWAR) Unfortunately I’d have to say no to that.

Who?

Not against something centered around Mayo, but don’t love their secondary pieces.

How exactly do you plan on building an offense when you’d trade our only high end positional prospect for more SP and don’t want to use Crochet to add positional prospects?

Maybe, depends on the prospect. But Rice is a 26 year old, bat only player and not in the Yankees’ immediate plans given his initial struggles last year. I don’t think the price will be all that crazy. I also don’t think Eder has zero value. A LH reliever has value and that outcome is still possible.

Feels like Thorpe wasn’t factored into the Best Tools list.

..

I’d assume so yes. The top three are top 50 prospects and Quero is definitely a top 100. Thorpe was high enough pre injury to probably still be in there, but I guess it’s technically possible all the draft pick additions push him just out.

It would be no doubt, but Eder is far behind our other SP options. And while he could be interesting as a LH reliever, I’d rather have the bat even if it’s a 1B / DH profile.

Any deal with the Red Sox needs to include Mayer or Campbell as the centerpiece IMO.

If I’m being honest, I was a little surprised by some of those projections and am confident not all would be met, but I do think most of these guys have positive fWAR floors if they are given a chance (outside of Fletcher).

I’m thinking something like Jake Eder for Ben Rice might make sense for both sides. I know that might feel gross given we just gave up a controllable 1B / DH for Eder, but I think we have a pitching surplus to make this type of trade.