Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 11:15 PM) A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon. If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape. We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years. Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high. Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020. The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon... We have a veteran catcher in Castillo controllable through 2020 along with a guy whose generally considered a top 10 catching prospect in Collins and a very interesting sleeper in Zavala. Right now I feel pretty good about our catching depth and we’ll know more about Collins by next offseason. Regardless, we can afford Machado and still address the other two or three critical roster issues. There should be enough to fill a couple holes via free agnecy and probably another one via trade. Machado only becomes an issue IMO if we have like six or seven key holes and really spread ourselves thin. For now I’m optimistic that won’t happen.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:12 PM) As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $85M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $125-135M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic. As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation. CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

And just to add further reason why settling for Moustakas is a bad idea. Look at the Yankees & Astros’ lineups the next few years. The Yankees could have a lineup built around Judge, Stanton, Machado, & Sanchez plus potential young stars in Torres, Florial, etc. The Astros have Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer, a bunch of good complimentary players plus a potential future star in Tucker. These two teams are going to be stacked and we have to find a way to catch up. Moose just doesn’t move the needle enough. We really have to aim higher.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:36 PM) I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here? When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:36 PM) They say things will be different and I believe them, but I will believe they will sign one of these guys when they actually sign him. No offense to anyone. As soon as they signed Robert for $50M and went into the penalty box I knew things would be different. I can understand being cautiously optimistic here, but the team literally has no financial commitments going forward and will have to spend their cash on something. A big free signing that signals the end of the rebuild and can be used to hype up interest in the team is no doubt the plan IMO.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:22 PM) Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative. Saying we’re better off with a left-handed bat over a top 5 player is mind-boggling. That’s basically like trading someone a $20 bill for four quarters because a vending machine doesn’t take big bills. If you’re saying we can’t afford that star player that’s a completely different story, although I don’t know you’d come to that conclusion. Let me ask you this, do you think a $50M payroll is realistic? Because we could extend Abreu and have the bulk of our core in place for that much or less. We are going to have a ton of money to play with over the next few years. These young players you mention won’t get expensive for another four to six years. What are we going to spend all this money on? Assuming the rebuild goes well, we may only have a handful of holes. Let’s spend our money on impact players and settle for some dude cause he simply plugs a hole. As for extending for our young stars, that shouldn’t even be a consideration at this point time. Why are we concerned about something six to eight years from now? We should do everything we can to maximize our 2019 to 2024 window. The reality is a lot of these guys are going to want to test the market. Once a guy like Moncada gets there, you better be prepared to give him a Machado level contract or he’s as good as gone. And you just said you don’t want to give Machado that contract right now despite having tons of financial flexibility. The good news is if were somehow able to add Machado, he’d most definitely have an opt-out after a few years and would likely exercise it, meaning his downside years wouldn’t probably not impact us anyways.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:13 PM) We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time. Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market. And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

I f***ing hate the NRA.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:09 PM) They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. You’d actually pass a significantly better player because of a desire to have a more balance lineup in terms of handedness. You realize that Machado & Donaldson are just as good against RHP (if not better) than Moustakas is right? But they bring much overall ability to the table. Regardless, focusing on building the most perfectly balanced lineup this early into a rebuild is a dangerous game. The goal first & foremost should be talent accumulation (preferably impact talent) and worrying about it all fits together later on.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:38 PM) If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble. He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH. How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets. There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again. Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36. Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract. But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 06:34 PM) So, other than Machado (who might not even want to play 3b), Donaldson, Rendon and Arenado, who’s really out there? At least two of those guys will probably re-sign, so you’re back in the box of chasing 33-37 year old Josh Donaldson with $140-165 million over four years. Is Burger likely to be a 3 war third baseman in 2020? Odds, knowing his defensive issues...? Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:39 PM) Dunkirk was extremely well made, but as a narrative, it was far too lacking to consider "great." It had almost zero character development. This 100%. Pretty disappointed with this year’s nominees in general. I still have three to go, but pretty weak group after Get Out & The Post IMO. The Big Sick is better than all of them and totally got snubbed.

If you draft Madrigal, where do you slot him eventually? Normally I wouldn’t ask the question, but he should come relatively quick.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) Regarding this argument that it is not meaningful to evaluate stats, if any portion is excluded: When you have consistent statistical data, with a short period, which is significantly divergent, I think that it's fair to consider that data as an aberration. It's a long season. If a hitter hit .300 every month, but one, in which he hit .200, what would you conclude? Going forward, would you anticipate that he would hit around .300 .200, or the average of his entire season? I would interpret that data as indicative of a .300 hitter, who had a really bad month. The question then becomes, what caused that aberration? Was he hurt, or was it attributed to something else? To put it another way, I would take that good production in 5 of the 6 months, and hope that the rest of the team could pick up the slack, during that one bad month, if it should recur. The more consistent the production, and the greater the divergence of the one exception, the less significance one could reasonably attach to that aberration. I’ve got great respect for you Lillian so please don’t take this the wrong way, but do you realize how variable & random baseball actually is? Every player is going to have good months & bad months. Occasionally a bad month could indicate an injury or something, but 95% of the time it’s just normal variation. You are really overthinking it here or are simply looking for a reason to justify a move you want to happen.

It's absolutely disgusting that someone would propose arming teachers would actually solve this problem. A couple teachers armed with handguns are going to do jack s*** against some psychopath who has spent months planning, has an AR-15 w/ high capacity clips, possibly wearing body armor, & with the element of surprise. The only thing those teachers might do is slow the shooter down slightly at the cost of their lives, but that's obviously not a solution and doesn't take into the account the numerous other negatives arming teachers would result in. One of the single dumbest ideas I have ever heard.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:29 AM) If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L. What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:05 PM) Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal. That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs.

Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent? Player: A. B. Age: 32. 29 BB%: 14.4%. 5.7% K%: 21.7%. 15.7% ISO: .215. .249 OBP: .344. .314 OPS: .772. .835 wRC+: 108. 114 UZR/ 150: 9.7. -3.6 WAR: 3.0. 2.2 12-16 aWAR: 3.5. 2.2

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:37 PM) I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal. The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one. Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32. Can’t trust anyone using roids. I think aging curves in general are a bit skewed right now because of the drop-off roiders experienced. No doubt guys will get worse as they get older, but I don’t think it happens quite as early as some experts suggest IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson. And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:37 PM) Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first. How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:37 PM) So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five? I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:35 PM) Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks. Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find. Just teasing buddy, thought it was funny you were pushing for him & Dyson.