Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:09 PM) I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window. He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:01 PM) I agree with this in theory but where it loses me is the fact that I do not see the White Sox committing $150M+ to a single player let alone $300M+. So we’re stuck with the second tier guys anyway. Then what? I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:58 PM) We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild. You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster. Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals. Too much of the core will be up in 2019 and burning service time. Free agency can be a two year process, but we have to start going for it in 2019 and that means being active with next year’s class IMO.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) Trusting this to being able to outbid the rest of baseball on Machado is a terrible idea. Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:45 PM) But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan. That’s fine but we literally have zero financial commitments going forward. We can afford a luxury like Machado right now because our core will be incredibly cheap for the next four to five years. And the good news is won’t prevent us from resigning Abreu and adding other free agents. Now is not the time to be frugle and go after value signings. Our goal should be to acquire the most impactful talent possible and use our prospect depth to fill in the remaining holes as needed. Machado is definitely a long-shot, but adding a 6 WAR player in one fair swoop radically changes the complexion of the team. Adding a guy like Moose probably makes us better, but doesn’t really move the needle that much. Plus he costs us a high draft pick in what should hopefully be our last big draft. I think we need to stick with the process and go after legit stars when the time is right.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:23 PM) I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future. I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present.

QUOTE (Username @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:13 PM) If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million. These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty. I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) Just one of those things where it seems like our brains value a hot start higher than a hot finish. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’ve been high on Nicky for a while. Was interested in him when we first picked him up given his backstory (talented over-slot pick who dealt with personal issues). Was more interested in him when he destroyed AA (in a park where offense goes to die) & made the KOTAH top 100 list. And finally became a believer last year when he cut his K rate to 17% to coincide with a 11% BB rate. No doubt his power numbers with the Sox were a bit flukey, but I think overall offensive package will play in LF. Just have to see how the glove progresses, I believe he has the physical tools to be above average but that may not overcome challenges he may face with his routes/instincts.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 08:10 AM) Recently I've seen Micker Adolfo's name surface more frequently in Sox coverage and it's always been VERY positive. It makes me wonder why we don't talk about him more and why he's not on more people's projected lineups in our contending years. For those of you who are up on this sort of thing...is there a bigger reason (other than injury history) why he's not mentioned more in our top prospect conversations? Seems like this guy is healthy and a beast in the making. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0220-story.html https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-getz-describ...-194919118.html I’m a big Adolfo fan, but he’s got to show progress with his pitch recognition & strikeouts to take that next step as a prospect. The good news is his plate discipline improved significantly over the second half of 2017 and when he makes contact it seems to be hard based on his power numbers. There have been a ton of articles discussing this, but our dream future OF should really be Jimenez in LF, Robert in CF, & Adolfo in RF. Micker has a cannon of an arm and is much better suited there than Eloy or someone like Rutherford. I really hope Adolfo takes that next step in 2018. As I mentioned there are reason for optimism.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:59 AM) You could probably look at the twenty previous 45th or 49th pick and find a bunch of guys who never made it. I’m not necessarily advocating the signing of Moustakas but it sure as hell would have nothing to do with that pick. It’s not just about the pick, but the bonus pool as well. The 2018 draft is supposed to be deep and it doesn’t sound like there will be a ton of seperation between the guys we’ll be considering at #4 (still early obviously). Therefore, there may be a legit under-slot play to made there, which could allow us to allocate bonus pool later on and take advantage of this draft’s depth. We’ll be in a much stronger position to execute such a strategy if we keep the #45 pick and it’s corresponding bonus pool. This is not the year to blow a high draft pick IMO, especially since we can stack penalties next year and lessen the overall impact if we sign multiple tendered guys.

I honest to god think some of you guys want a $65M payroll or something. I really can’t stress enough how much financial flexibility we’ll have in the coming years. Here’s a theoretical 2020 roster assuming only guys that are under control plus with Abreu extended. 1B: Abreu ($21M) 2B: Moncada ($0.5M) SS: Anderson ($4M) 3B: Burger ($0.5M) LF: Delmonico ($0.5M) CF: Robert ($0.5M) RF: Jimenez ($0.5M) DH: Sheets ($0.5M) C: Collins ($0.5M) Sub-total: $28.5M IF: Sanchez ($6M) OF: Cordell ($0.5M) UT: L. Garcia ($4M) BC: Castillo ($8M) Sub-total: $18.5M #1: Kopech ($0.5M) #2: Rodon ($8M) #3: Hansen ($0.5M) #4: Giolito ($0.5M) #5: Dunning ($0.5M) Sub-total: $10M CL: Burdi ($0.5M) SU: Cease ($0.5M) SU: Lopez ($0.5M) MR: Vieira ($0.5M) MR: Bummer ($0.5M) MR: Fulmer ($0.5M) LR: Stephens ($0.5M) Sub-total: $3.5M Grand-total: $60.5M Yes, there are some weak/questionable spots. Yes, not all these guys will work out. But the point is we could add $60M to this roster in the short-run and still have room for growth as players start hitting arbitration. Plus I’m assuming an $18.5M bench to hedge against some of those kids not being quite ready. There are some quick & easy ways to clear even more salary. To me, there is no reason we couldn’t afford to add Machado or Donaldson, a high leverage reliever, and one other impactful piece next offseason. If needed, then trade any excess/blocked talent resulting from these moves to fill the remaining holes on the roster. My point here is let’s use our financial resources on impact talent and not just league average players. If we have more than four or five major holes to fill come 2020 then the rebuild has gone poorly.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 11:21 PM) Kind of agree with Greg that maybe Sox are moving on from their plan to go after Manny. I’d rather add Donaldson next offseason quite frankly.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 07:36 PM) Jarvis Landry franchise tagged. Allen Robinson likely to be tagged too. The wide receiver market is quickly diminishing. Albert Wilson seemed like a gimme, but he is only gonna get more expensive now Really bad news for us. Pace completely ignoring the position last offseason is really going to cost us.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 06:10 PM) So the Rays gave up Souza and got back Solak, Banda, and 2 PTBNL? That seems like a great deal for them. That could be a look at what Avi is worth too if he puts up another good first half. Unfortunately Avi will only have 1 1/2 years of control at that point while Souza has three.

QUOTE (iWin4Ron @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 04:13 PM) Why do you say that? The argument would be: There's no chance of us signing Machado for $$$$$$$$$$$$$, and Donaldson vs. Mike Mous is iffy due to age + Donaldson would command much more $$$. We have almost zero financial commitments in the short-run. This team is going to spend significantly when the time is right and that will hopefully be next off-season. We should use on our money on potential impact players first and worry about plugging holes second. I can't understate how much financial flexibility we'll have next year. We need to shoot for the stars Albert Belle style and not just settle for B level free agents like we typically do. I just don't see the allure of giving of the 45th pick & $2M in slot value for a guy who is basically a league average player when we're still at least a year out from competing. Even if we miss on Machado & Donaldson and Sanchez is not a viable option, we can always trade for a league average 3B next off-season. Sure, if a star was available on the cheap right now I'd be all for it, but Mike Moustakas is simply not that player IMO.

The rotation is really going to make or break the team this year from a record standpoint. By mid-season we could have a rotation full of young studs or a ton of question marks. While by no means do I think this happens, but if enough of the kids (Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, & Kopech) take positive steps forward this team could see a Twins like improvement in 2018. Obviously we’re more likely to see a mix of good & bad outcomes, but it’s going to be exciting as hell to follow this young staff next year.

QUOTE (FloydBannister1983 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 07:33 AM) Let that be a lesson to you. Having any doubts about Moncada is tantamount to blasphemy. And he's no longer even the crown jewel. Wait till the first time you post "Jimenez's 0-4, 3 strikeout night was less than ideal" or "I'm no expert but I don't think 8 walks from Kopech is to be desired". Whoa Nelly the reaction to that will dwarf the outrage at just mildly expressing your thoughts about Moncada. It’s not having doubts about Moncada, it’s suggesting there is an attitude problem that doesn’t exist and that Yoan should potentially lose his job with a poor spring. I think the reactions here are fair because those are both pretty hot takes IMO, but obviously there are ways to communicate that without the nastiness some posters used. Balfaman has been around for a while and deserves to be treated with respect.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 07:46 PM) Davidson cut, wishful thinking? Nobody has mentioned Willy Garcia, btw. Vieira? (Avilan) If they think Cordell or Engel or Tilson could be everyday players, they should be playing everyday in Charlotte. The more I think about it the more I think Davidson doesn’t make the roster. There have been some hints that the Sox could still add to the roster and DH is the only obvious spot. Plus the Covey timing makes me think it could be Dickerson assuming the price is low. I’m a big Willy fan, but he’s definitely behind Nicky on the depth chart. I hope they keep him in the system, but I could see him as a 40 man roster casualty to make room for one of the non roster relievers. I don’t think there’s any chance in hell Vieira makes the opening day roster. First, they’ll want to keep as many veterans as possible to give them more flexibility/depth. Second, they’ll wait at least a month even if he looks good in camp to ensure an extra year of service time. Cordell & Tilson are sent to Charlotte to get every-day at-bats. I don’t think they’ll go with a three man bench all year, so I’d expect one of them up at some point.

1. L. Garcia, CF 2. Moncada, 2B 3. Abreu, 1B 4. Dickerson, DH 5. A. Garcia, RF 6. Delmonico, LF 7. Anderson, SS 8. Sanchez, 3B 9. Castillo, C IF: Saladino OF: Engel BC: Narvaez #1: Shields #2: Giolito #3: Lopez #4: Gonzalez #5: Fulmer CL: Soria SU: Jones SU: Minaya MR: Avalin MR: Infante MR: Cedeno MR: Rondon LR: Santiago

We have to see how he progresses defensively this year. If he can become average or better in LF, he could quickly become a viable long-term solution. Otherwise, he’s probably going to have to up his offensive game to stick at 1B or DH.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 08:37 AM) Correct - and I believe Leury, Delmonico, and even Davidson, and others are better use for those 600+plate appearances. He crowds out a corner outfield spot, which would mean both are taken with Avi. So we flip him - what are we going to get? A B prospect. We have a lot of B prospects, who need playing time. And let's not forget we'll probably have to TRADE a B prospect to get him, so the "flip" idea is somewhat tenuous. L Garcia produced 1.1 WAR in 1/2 a season. Delmonico is 1 WAR in 1/4 of a season. IN both cases, the players played a position in which they had little experience and are highly likely to improve defensively (Leury had some experience in the OF; Delmonico had very little). But the bottom line to me is that Dickerson is a bottom 3 hitter on a championship team. i.e. you use him to plug a hole, not as part of a foundation. And he's a bad defender, and the Sox don't need that. Way too early to plug holes with veterans. If we bring on Dickerson it’s to be a DH. I think the main person impacted by such a move would be Davidson and I don’t really care to give him another shot at the job. Delmonico & Leury could still be the primary LF & CF respectively. And Dickerson’s wRC+ of 115 ranked 60th overall of eligible hitters last year. I find it hard to believe he’d a bottom three hitter on any team.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 05:47 PM) The Sox have outfield prospects out the wazzu. With Delmonico, they finally have someone who takes pitches without batting .200. He has a chance to turn into a really good hitter. I'd like to see how he plays out. I just don't get the zeal for Dickerson. High K, low OBP, bad defense, some power. It is the profile that the Sox like. But such players will always be in ample supply, if the Sox insist on one. He’d be a potential flip candidate. The 600+ DH plate appearances are an asset and the Sox have to decide what is the best use of them. I’ve personally seen enough of Matt Davidson to move onto a different option. I won’t be upset if they simply use the spot to rotate a bunch of young guys, but I’m totally ok if they want to roll the dice on the right veteran. IMO, DHing isn’t easy and a lot of players struggle with the routine. Dickerson was pretty awesome as a DH last year (SSS I know) and his power could really play up at the Cell. A strong first half along with his ability to play the OF (even if we don’t use him their regularly) & his cheap ass salary could result in him netting us something of value at the deadline. I can see the logic if the Sox’s scouts are high on him and the price is basically nothing.

Moncada is the single most important player to the rebuild and isn’t going to lose the 2B job over a bad spring. There is nothing wrong with him publicly admitting something we all know.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 02:48 PM) Nightengale is a big White Sox news guy and he even wrote if Machado isn’t a Yankee it will be the upset of all upsets. While I agree they want him, they better have a really good plan B. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/c...kees/347912002/ I don’t disagree, but I don’t see plan B coming before plan A in this case. If Donaldson has another strong season without any major injuries he could be the backup plan despite his age.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 02:23 PM) The only thing is he is kind of repetitive with Delmonico. Plus the Sox have 11 outfielders on their 40. I guess with Leury on the roster being so flexible, it’s possible. I think they think they have a shot at Tillman, or maybe even Moustakas, although that is Boras so unlikely. He is kind of repetitive with Nicky, but honestly don’t see the point of letting Davidson be the everyday DH. He’s an upgrade there and theoretically has some “flipping” upside with another strong first half. DH is the one spot I’m ok with getting a veteran if said player has some potential trade value. I’m not a huge Dickerson fan myself, but I can see the Sox making this type of move. I was actually hoping they would target Tillman at the beginning of the offseason, but I can’t see them adding another starter to guaranteed money with Gonzalez in the fold. And I think the Sox are all in on the Machado front and won’t add anyone that blocks that to a certain extent.