Chicago White Sox

For some reason I really think they’re going to add Dickerson.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 11:31 AM) you think he'll get 3 more mil AAV than Hosmer? 21 vs. 18 Abreu is the better player IMO and the last three years of Homser’s deal are really more of an safety net for him. I mean Carlos Santana just got a $20M AAV, Jose getting an extra $1M two years doesn’t seem very far-fetched.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 08:28 AM) At his age at free agency? Idk about that. At some point the amount of teams tanking is going to self-correct and the prices of free agents will go up. We are already starting to see some last-place teams like the Phillies & Padres make expensive additions. Two years from now I could definitely see Abreu geting something like a 5/$100M deal. Given that would cover his age 33 to 37 seasons, matching that would certainly make me feel uncomfortable.

Why would anyone sign a non-elite 1B to an 8 year deal in this day and age? I get that Hosmer provides some nice intangibles, but that doesn’t rationalize this type of investment. The Padres will eventually regret this IMO. Also, wish we would have extended Abreu when good 1B/DH we’re only getting three to four year deals. If Jose reaches free agency, he’s going to get an offer that makes us uncomfortable.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 17, 2018 -> 02:55 AM) On the latest FanGraphs Audio w/ Kylie McDaniel, he and Carson talked a lot about Carson Fulmer, and a bit about Zack Collins. On Fulmer, they basically said he could become a valuable Cody Allen type bullpen arm, who would be considered a failed pick in his 2015 draft year, but because of the recent trend towards 2 IP power relievers, he would be actually be valued pretty well if he were thrown in to this upcoming draft with this current skillset/projection. So they basically said he went from top pick, to somewhat of a disappointing pick, back to a good pick if he ends up as that Cody Allen/Andrew Miller type 2-inning specialist. They discussed Collins when McDaniel was talking about how the "hit tool" is really a combination of bat control + pitch recognition. So not every 50 hit tool guy is the same because that guy may have 70 pitch recog but only 30 bat control. Or the inverse. They basically said it's very very rare to have a player with BOTH of those things rated highly because typically when you're good at one of them, you don't have to be good at the other to find success. Their extreme example of Vlad Guerrero who had amazing 80 grade bat control, but his pitch recognition sucked, but that's only because it didn't MATTER if he swung at balls, because he would hit them anyway, so he didn't HAVE to master the strikezone. So therefor his hit tool was still very good and he hit for great averages. They said Vlad is EVEN MORE rare because he had the raw power tool to translate contact w/ bad pitches in to power. Most players who had great bat control but bad pitch recognition (Starlin Marte) don't translate that in to a lot of HR because the pitches they make contact with are not even strikes, thus hard to make hard contact on, so they get bloop singles vs. home runs. This related to Collins because his example of the opposite of Starlin Marte was Collins, because he has likely a 70 or 80 grade pitch recognition, but not very good bat control. But this plays better with good power because it means when he swings, he's swinging at mainly strikes, and if all his contact are on strikes, then a higher % of those will be able to be translated to HR via his 60 or 70 raw power. On Fulmer, I’ve already accepted the fact that he’ll be a multi-inning reliever and I’m ok with that. Obviously you’d like to get something more out of such a high draft pick, but I really won’t complain as long as he can fill that type of role for us. The scary part is we all just assume that can & will happen but until they actually move him to relief you really don’t know. I don’t imagine he’s long for our rotation this year, so hopefully we’ll find out soon enough. As for Collins, I’m going to say I’d rather have a player with elite pitch recognition & poor bat control than the opposite this early in their career. There is still plenty of time for Collins to work on his hitch and have at least average bat control. If that can happen, he can still be a very useful offensive player at a minimum. And I’m fairly optimistic he’ll be able to make enough adjustments to get there. I think too many prospect experts panicked on him a bit early and failed to acknowledge that he’s a catcher and oftentimes the offensive development lag behind while they focus on the defensive of the game.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 09:33 PM) I really like Tilson as well. I think his hit tool is much better then Engel and his defense will probably not be all that different question for him is how much power does he have in that swing. Wow hold on here, are you suggesting Tilson’s defense is comparable to Engel’s? Cause Adam is a f***ing stud out there and Tilson from what I’ve read (since he’s never really played for us) is average at best in CF. Tilson has a much better hit tool, but he’s probably a huge downgrade defensively and has far less raw power & speed. I don’t know, it’s really hard for me to buy into the Tilson hype. I don’t see much more than second division starter potential and I think it’s far more likely he ends up being a 4th or 5th OF.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 07:58 PM) Sox need TA to turn into a clubhouse leader and 2-4 WAR guy. I'm certainly rooting for him. He showed a little bit at the end of last year once he was able to put the adversity behind him. The thing about TA that intrigues me is his defensive tools are absolutely elite. I've rarely seen a Sox SS with such range -- Ramirez included. His arm is average but he has a lighting quick release and as noted his range is as good as I've seen here. He's gotta cleanup the "lazy" (more of a repetition issue imo but it comes across as lazy) routine errors he makes rounding off balls and throwing on the run. Hopefully with more experience he learns to just slow down, field the ball under the brim of his cap, square, and fire. None of this "ole" s***. I think he’s a pretty safe bet to be a 2 WAR player next year. I believe in him being an above average defender and his mix of speed & power offer should make him a just slightly below league average hitter. It’s the complete lack of walks that’s holding him back at the moment. If he could even get to a 5% BB rate he could be an above average starting SS. I’m not overly optimistic about that, but he’s still young so you never know.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 02:00 PM) ask and ye shall receive watch Paul Ryan say nearly the same thing after multiple mass shootings Thoughts and Prayers and NRA Funding QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 02:00 PM) Marco Rubio has $3.3 million reasons why no gun law would ever stop what happened. Paul Ryan has received a ton from gun rights groups. You might get a kick out of this: https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/paul-rya...r-1162885187935 Thank you both!

Is there a way to see which politicians receive sizable donations from the NRA? I want to know how much guys like Paul Ryan & Marco Rubio get from them vs. other politicians. And how many times has Paul Ryan done the “now is not the time to discuss gun control” BS? Surely there has to be a video all the different times he’s spewed that garbage edited together. There’s got to be a way to hold these f***s accountable for the lives they’re partly responsible for taking.

I can’t wait to see Cordell on the field. There’s something about this kid has me excited. I think his physical abilities are a little undervalued as it sounds like he’s a five tool talent even if none of them are truly plus. I hope they give him plenty of time in CF this spring and see if there’s any chance he could stick there. He claims it’s his position of choice which I’ll take a positive for now.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 07:15 AM) Yes, they did scout him and did sign him. In fact they gave Tatis a pretty big signing bonus -- something like $2.5 million, IIRC. Then they never gave him a chance to play, trading him for arguably the worst player then in the majors. It's a head shaker. They gave him $825k which isn’t that much. Hell, they gave Franklin $1.5M in that signing class.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 07:03 AM) So they only get dinged for trading him. Apparently they don't get any credit at all for scouting him and signing him. This is exactly why people get so angry about the trading getting brought up ad naseum. I’m just not sure how much credit I give them for scouting him. If they had any idea what they had on their plates, they never would of traded him, at least not for James Shields. To me, that’s a huge reason this trade makes me sick to my stomach. He’s the only guy we’ve actually signed out of LatAm who has made a real impact stateside and we gave him up before he even came to the US. Preller straight-up out-scouted us on a guy in our own system. That’s the biggest issue I have with the trade.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 07:20 PM) The point I was making is that WAR isn't linear. It accounts for scarcity via the positional adjustment. So if you are a star SS and there is a lack of quality SS in the league that is accounted for. The same goes for CF and so on. The rest of your post I don't agree with. You keep saying that stars are more valuable because they only take up one position but like I stated earlier I don't take that view. In my opinion when you look at FA and how fangraphs does the dollar per war figure often it's inflated versus what they get in FA. Thats because teams recognize they need to fill out the rest of the roster and thats hard to do in a 152 million dollar payroll (league average last year) while still paying stars what they are worth. I could break it all down but I already have in other threads b. I actually make the case the opposite is true for example Baseball reference indicates there were 153 players with 300 PA or more with WAR less then or equal to 2. 89 less then or equal to 1. Lets go with 1. That means on average teams carried three players who received significant amount of PA who contributed 1 WAR or less. Thats just positional players not even taking into account your bullpen or starting pitching. Lets say they instead got 2 WAR from those players. Thats at minimum an extra 3 WAR production in some cases more depending on who they are replacing. What is 2 WAR going for in FA? EDIT: I just googled when typing up this post should have known fangraphs already did a similar study. Could have saved myself some time it confirmed much of the research you can read it here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-lineari...f-cost-per-win/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-...-agent-pricing/ And these articles don't even get into the regression and return on investment that these players provide in the latter half of their deals. I have no idea what that fangraphs study even means. GMs may very well pay on a linear $/WAR basis, our argument is they should not and value each incremental WAR more than the previous. The best example I have of this would be fantasy football related. David Johnson was predicted to outproduce all other players by a f***ton last year (ignore the injury for argument’s sake). Anyone fortunate enough to get him would of theoretically had a huge advantage. In auction leagues, you should have paid a huge premium to land him because there is a finite number of roster smarts and he’s an absolute difference maker. The goal is any sport is to get the most overall value out of your finite number of spots and there’s a theoretical limit of much value (or WAR) that can be generated based on the number of superstars in the game. Every time you miss on a superstar you’re team is theoretically capped off a little bit more. It’s exactly why a 8 WAR player four 2 WAR players. There has to be a premium for elite talents whether or not those players ultimately receive it as free agents. Unfortunately for them, there is a ton of risk inteams signing to guys to 8+ year deals that they may not ultimately get their fair share.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 07:07 PM) Semi-automatic AR-15 are excellent sport rifles. Mostly because the round isn't very big. It's not much bigger than a .22. The only adavantage is the light weight. So, I guess you could ban them. But my fear is that someone would just to a bigger round which would cause more damage. It’s not about the size of the round, it’s the fact that someone with an AR-15 can fire off an insane number of rounds in a short period of time (with a relatively high level of precision to boot), especially when combined with high capacity magazines. There are plenty of other rifles that could be used for sport shooting that aren’t nearly as deadly as an AR-15. Again, I respect your right for gun ownership, but I can’t justify assault weapons being legal when they’re literally used in mass shootings on what seems like a weekly basis. Time for them to go and see if things get better.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 06:16 PM) There is nothing wrong with the semi-automatic version of the AR-15 which is the legal version he had. Just be glad that he liked this weapon (because of it's reputation) and not many other more powerful semi-automatic rifles. Why does any civilian need an AR-15? I’m pro gun ownership, but there is absolutely no reason for assault weapons to be legal. They should not be used for hunting or sport and are beyond unnecessary for self defense unless you’re worried about someone else who has one. I’m sure they’re fun to f*** around with, but there is no practical purpose for them and therefore no justification to allow everyday people to have them, especially not when there are weekly shooting sprees involving them.

100% agree and have been arguing this for a while. Each incremental WAR should be worth more given there are a finite amount of spots on the field and the scarcity of stars in the game.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 07:35 AM) It's time for Little Marco to take his $3.3 million in contributions from the NRA and go home: Rubio rejected calls for gun control in an interview with Fox News after the Parkland shooting, saying it was the wrong time to discuss such efforts “because people don’t know how this happened.” “I think it’s important to know all of [the facts] before you jump to conclusions that there’s some law we could have passed that could have prevented it,” he said. “There may be, but shouldn’t we at least know the facts? I think that we can always have that debate, but ... you should know the facts of that incident before you run out and prescribe some law you claim could have prevented it.” I'm so sick of these f***ers spewing this bulls***. The only fact that's relevant here is the shooter used an AR-15 style assault weapon. The only practical purpose for having such a weapon is to kill as many people as possible as quickly as possible. No civilian needs one. Let's get rid of these f***ing things. It shouldn't be that hard unless you're on the NRA's payroll.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 07:13 AM) Engel's appeal is not based solely upon his elite defense and athleticism. He is also very fast and possesses legitimate power. It's easy to understand why management might want to give him every opportunity to learn to hit. Whether, or not, he is able to accomplish that is very questionable, but I'm rooting for him. He is one of those guys who probably spent too much time playing another sport. Perhaps if he had concentrated more on baseball and less on football, he would be further along in his development, as a hitter. The upside may be tantalizing but the odds of him ever putting it altogher seem super low. Given that we have a potential superstar in Robert who could be ready by opening day 2020 (I know I’m being optimistic here), I just think we’re better off using this season developing a guy who has a better chance of serving as a potential transitional CF until Luis is ready. And in that regard, I think Leury, Cordell, & even Tilson make far more sense. Look, I won’t be upset if they give Engel one last shot, but I hope it’s a really short leash. Can’t waste too much time on a guy that has shown no ability to hit major league pitching when other attractive options exist. And I still think Leury deserves an extended look in CF after how well he performed there last year pre-injury.

What need’s to happen from a political standpoint to finally see some change here? What branches of the government do the Democrats need control of to actually get some policy done? I need some hope here, because right now it just seems like the entire government is a complete & epic joke that will never do anything about gun violence.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 07:54 PM) Where exactly are you seeing this? I don't think I've seen anyone literally say that today. I’ve seen it on the news, on twitter, etc. And I’ve seen it multiple times in this very thread along with other shooting-related threads. I’ve seen you yourself make this very claim on this website. I have no problem if someone is against guns, but the “let’s get rid all of guns” rhetoric isn’t going to accomplish anything. It’s never going to happen in this country. I want actual change and people right now should be demanding an assault weapons ban. That’s something that should theoretically be feasible. It won’t necessarily prevent mass shootings but it would sure as s*** reduce the death tolls. I just have no faith in the government or the people who elect it to the do right thing.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 06:37 PM) You are completely correct, that would be a great step in the right direction, i'd add stop producing the associated ammo. But statistics DO prove that severely reducing the number of guns would correlate with severely reducing the number of mass shootings. I’m sure it would, but it’s just not a realistic solution. Too many people in this country (right or wrong) love their guns and will not give up that right. But there is so much low hanging fruit here it’s an absolute shame we haven’t made an ounce of progress since Sandy Hook. Our government has completely failed us.

Adolfo coming in at #17 is pretty ridiculous IMO. Check out his power & walk numbers over the last three months of the season, the kid was making some serious progress. Obviously he has work to do on the strikeouts, but there is so much upside here I feel like he should be in the top 12 without question.

I really wish the far left didn’t scream “get rid of all guns” every time we have a shooting like this. That’s never going to happen and just gives the pro-gun crowd the ammo they need to make no changes. The focus should be on getting rid of completely unnecessary things like assault weapons & high-capacity clips and putting far stricter restrictions /controls in place for general gun ownership. That won’t stop everything but it would be a huge step in the right direction. Unfortunately our completely broken government will never get that done.

Thanks for sharing Y2Jimmy!

I will add that Merkin seems to be hyping Engel up as the favorite, which may or may not mean anything.