Chicago White Sox

Is this you doing a Caulfield impression, because you’re all over the place. Like what in the word are you talking about here.

Because Robert is a legit prospect and shouldn’t be rushed?

I think the big takeaway from this not to overreact to rough patches or even seasons with high end prospects. Too many people here panicked on Robert because he couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t show much power. We still don’t know for certain what he is, but surely this AFL reinforces what we know he’s capable of. The tools are beyond elite and we’re actually seeing them put to use for the first time. It’s the same reason people shouldn’t write-off guys like Hansen & Sheets after disappointing 2018 seasons.

Are Steamer not mean projections? If they are, why are we assuming any variance would be underperformance? Certaintly some guys will perform much different than their projection, but there should also be positive outcomes in that respect. If you’re referring to the five young guys, I agree those aren’t necessarily mean projections but they’re not crazy by any means. Those kids should all get better next year and none of those projections come close to peak level upside. To me, they reflect realistic progressions with their development. Again, nothing is foolproof. All those young guys could stagnate or bust. There could be other unforeseen regressions. Regardless, I think if you can add Harper (the biggest if) and some other pieces, having a competitive team next year is in the realm of possibility and not a “every single thing must go right” type scenario.

You keep saying this, but no one is actually suggesting a “1%” outcome for every player is required for us to be competitive next year. Let’s try to be objective here. The Sox need to add about 20 WAR to be a contender in 2019. That’s a huge number, but add Harper and the gap is suddenly 15. Adding Donaldson shrinks it to 12. Adding Cruz & Happs shrinks it to 8.5. And those aren’t 1% outcomes, but simply using what Steamer is projecting for veteran players and netting against our prior year production. Then you got a future stud in Eloy Jimenez. I find projection systems to regularly under project young players and yet Steamer has him at 2.6 WAR next year. Let’s just call it 3 WAR since we know Eloy will be up ASAP based on Hahn’s recent comments. That cuts the gap to 5.5 WAR. On top of these additions, we also have quite a few talented players that should be better next year, the question with them is simply how much. Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito are all 25 year old and former top 40 prospects. These guys are still developing and could take massive leaps. Last year they combined for 6.5 WAR. Could these guys account for 12 WAR next year? I don’t think a crazy expectation and nowhere near a 1% outcome. Moncada at 4, Rodon & Lopez at 3, and Anderson at 2 gets us there. That would require no improvement from Giolito, who is without question the biggest wild card in the group. Does that really seem that crazy to you? Mix and match as you please, that’s beauty of having a young developing core. At the end of the day, if we can land a whale and a bunch of secondary pieces, we should be able put together a competitive team without “everything going right for every single guy”. That doesn’t mean it’s foolproof, but it’s not nearly as daunting as you keep suggesting.

I truly believe Bryce is the one guy that rule wouldn’t apply to. He’d be our modern day Frank Thomas and actually drive fan interest.

Wouldn’t adding one of the biggest superstars help is do just that?

I mean it sounds like they are. Doesn’t mean would / should give you their best player to free up money.

I seriously doubt the Cubs move Bryant. Just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever unless they’re worried he’s legit injured. The whole “he’s going to depart when he hits free agency” was always reality and they wouldn’t let that jeopardize their short-term window.

He’s also probably aware that Adam Eaton is batshit crazy and wanted a 12 year old boy to be their captain. I have zero concerns that Eaton could have an impact on us signjng Harper.

I don’t think cutting $12M to $13M in salary is enough to add a +$30M AAV guy. All signs point to them having very little payroll flexibility right now.

I’d have it Jimenez, Robert, Basabe, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Steele. I think Basabe has the higher floor than Adolfo, but Micker’s ceiling is higher due to his elite raw power & arm. He could legitimately become a star RF if his plate discipline continues to improve. Also, just to be clear on my previous comments, but I’m a huge fan of Luis Gonzalez. I just think he needs to put up numbers in AA before I can rank him above guys with louder tools like Basabe & Adolfo. That very well could happen this coming season.

This would be very close to mine. And I totally agree with the three guys who fall outside the top 10. To me, Collins & Hansen are still much better prospects than LuGo, Rutherford, & Walker.

Both guys were at Winston Salem last year and Basabe’s ISO was nearly a 100 points higher. There is no doubt Blake has the better hit tool, but Basabe brings so much more to the table including power.

I fully agree with this assessment. I really think we see some fireworks at the Winter Meetings this year. As for an offseason game-plan, I think we can proactively address the pitching staff without seeing how things shake out with Harper & Machado. I also think Cruz may be a nice little value signing that we could do regardless. 3B & the OF should be on hold though until we are officially out on the whale free agents. Machado & Harper have to be the sole focus at those spots.

Fangraphs definitely phoned it in with their preseason rankings, but have since rectified that with their current Board. I just can’t take this BA list seriously with Basabe below Rutherford (like WTF does Blake do better), and to a lesser extent Gonzalez & Adolfo. To me, Basabe is the clear 3rd OF prospect in the system behind Jimenez & Robert.

I’ve said it before, but how is he radically different than Florial? Yet he gets far more love than Basabe from BA and I believe Pipeline.

Exactly, which is probably the reason Fangraphs is so high on him.

Very true. For whatever reason, Basabe just doesn’t get the love he deserves. Fangraphs actually has him ranked as the 83rd overall prospect, but it seems like all the other publications are a bit bearish on him. BA surprises me given their focus on tools and Basabe’s only below average tool is his hit tool. A legit CF prospect with plus speed / arm, good power, and a very nice walk rate should be pretty well regarded by them.

I’m not sure if we received confirmation just yet, but this seems to suggest Bryce is in Chicago: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/bryce-harper-manny-machado-gm-meetings-free-agency-mlb-rumors-white-sox-cubs-giants-dodgers-cardinals-yankees.html

The problem is their reason to believe we’re actually pursuing Harper, so it would be pretty shocking to make a for al offer for a far lesser option. I don’t buy it.

If you get Machado sure, but otherwise the focus should be on whale free agents & smaller pieces.

I think if all these rumors tell me one thing, it’s that agents are using our payroll flexibility to create leverage in the marketplace.

Sign all the free agents?

I don’t know what to believe anymore.