Chicago White Sox

I didn’t hate the deal, but did not like Clarkin being the second piece.

Easily the best moment from the Ian Clarkin era: https://mobile.twitter.com/jon_greenberg/status/1064992238521016331?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

I’m assuming that has to be the case, but wasn’t 100% sure. Just surprised anyone would claim him at this point.

So did the Cubs add Clarkin to their 40 man roster?

Well he’s still technically a starter right now and would be in the top 6 on our current depth chart. I personally think he’ll end up in the bullpen as a multi-inning guy (which can be valuable) and I’m not sure which 10 guys are clearly ahead him for bullpen roles. In terms of RH relievers, I’d only put Jones & Hamilton well ahead him and Nate is always a huge question mark. A healthy Burdi would also be ahead of Jordan as well. Otherwise, I don’t see how guys like Burr, Vieira, Ruiz, & Fulmer are that much different in the pecking order. And outside of Fulmer, most of those guys are shorter outing types. I think some of you guys are really selling Jordan short as a possible multi-inning reliever / spot starter.

If I had to guess, I’d assume Clarkin or Tilson is coming off, with Ian being the more likely of the two.

I agree, I’m still pretty high on Stephens and would have been surprised if he wasn’t protected. I do think his future is probably in the bullpen due to a lack of durability. As long as the velocity picks up a couple ticks that should work fine.

Thanks Jimmy. Any word on Adams or Thompson?

Fully agree with this. I just want to keep those risks short-term so they don’t hold us back from addressing other needs in a few years.

All very fair points, but the difference between him and Morton is you’ll have to pay him for that breakout talent he flashed last year. Charlie only got 2/$14M from the Astros, Eovaldi will likely get somewhere between 3/$48M & 6/$68M in this market. There still could be some upside there, but it’s greatly outweighed by the downside risk IMO.

I think you’re spot-on with the fatigue angle. I really think the Sox add him to the 40 and let him challenge for a bullpen spot and serve as rotational depth.

The problem with Eovaldi is you’re paying him for how performed down the stretch & in the playoffs with the Red Sox. He had never really performed like that before and given his injury history, you’re taking on a ton of risk with him. I’d need Cooper & Schneider to feel confident they could keep him healthy & productive in order to sign him for what he’ll likely command and even then I’d hate going beyond three years.

And I’m totally fine with that if we plan to spend big on a starter. That’s called being forward thinking and thinking through the best multi-year plan for the organization. I just can’t agree with the concept that adding one veteran starter right now somehow blocks one of our kids in 2020. Let’s say we sign Eovaldi and all three of our young starters take a leap next year (Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito). Worst case scenario, we have a young left-handed starter in Rodon under control for two more years that we can trade to fill other holes or add prospect depth back to the system. I just don’t see how anyone could view this as a problem.

Jesus Christ man, adding one controllable starting pitcher won’t block anyone. You are the first person I have ever met who cried about having too much starting pitching. If they all work out, which is incredibly unlikely, we have some depth to deal from. That is a good problem to have. Regardless, Kopech & Cease (if healthy) will be given their opportunities next year no matter what and room will be made if necessary.

Sure, I’d count all external acquisitions.

Yes, he honestly believes that for some reason.

I think we should definitely protect Stephens. I still feel he could be a quality reliever. Adams I’m far less concerned about given the low K rate. I do think there is a decent chance they protect Thompson based on his AFL showing.

So the deadline to set our 40 man roster prior for Rule 5 protection is tonight at 7pm. Right now the Sox have five roster spots available to add players that require protection & could always open up a few more spots by removing a few players. That being said, the Sox will likely keep a few spots open for external additions. What are your predictions here? Guys that require protection include Cease, Zavala, Medeiros, Stephens, Guerrero, Adams, Mendick, Thompson, & Banks. There are a few more guys that could require protection, but the odds of them being selected are extremely low. Just for reference, I’ve included a link to a roster resource that contains all this information below. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-white-sox/

So it was all a joke then?

So just to be clear, your plan is to rush all our prospects to somehow make things “interesting”? I’d like to share my actual thoughts here, but would prefer to avoid a likely suspension.

What they have available today is not what they’ll have available tomorrow. There is no doubt they can afford Machado right now, but in the coming years adding him eats up some of their flexibility. I already called out Hicks & Gregorius being free agents after this coming season. I assume you just ignored these guys & their 9.5 fWAR in your future payroll assessment. Also, the arbitration estimates beyond 2019 are simply based on averages and do not reflect what young stars like Judge, Sanchez, & Servino will actually earn. And Tanaka falling off the payroll means another hole to fill. The same applies to Paxton unless they are able to retain him at signficanth bigger dollars. You are making their financial situation look much better than it really is. That doesn’t mean Machado is a no-go, but they may not be eager to sign a 3B with character concerns to one of the largest contracts in baseball history given these financial considerations in addition to the fact they have a cheap, controllable 3B already in place.

Well that sucks, but if even considering Segura they must not be convinced about spending big money on Machado.

I also think people are overestimating how much the Yankees are going to be willing to spend. Hicks & Gregarious combined for 9.5 WAR last year and will both be free agents after the season. Severino hits arbitration this year and Judge & Sanchez next year. Those guys combined for 12.3 WAR and will see their salaries rise significantly in the coming years. TLDR => their core is about to get very expensive. I’m not suggesting they can’t afford Machado, but I don’t anticipate them going all-out for him. I still believe the Phillies are the greater threat for Manny.

I still don’t get this line of thinking. The Yankees were always going to add two arms, with one likely being Corbin and the other being acquired via trade. They still have a great chance of landing Machado, but I’m not sure how this really changes anything.

This is the only part of your post I don’t agree with. The 2017 Twins improved by 26 games. The 2018 A’s improved by 22 games. The 2018 Braves improved by 18 games. That’s three examples off the top of my head in the last two year of teams taking massive leaps & making the playoffs without huge free agent spending. To say the odds of us doing something similar next year is akin to “playing the lottery” is being way too pessimistic IMO. And let me be clear, I’m not suggesting that type of leap is likely for us, but with enough free agent additions & internal development it is possible. I know it’s easy to be down on our first wave of prospects right now, but Moncada is a former #1 prospect, Rodon & Giolito were top 10 guy at one point, & Anderson & Lopez were top 40 types. Those guys are capable of taking signicant leaps next year. Jimenez is a top 5 prospect also capable of making an impact next year. Those guys (plus our LF’s) combined for 6.5 fWAR last year. The room for improvement there is significant. Combine that with several important free agent signings (including a whale) and there is a chance our team could take a massive leap forward next year. Again, nothing is guaranteed and it would take a mix of good health, luck, & development, but it’s definitely not as much as a stretch as you’re making it out to be unless you just don’t believe in the talent of our young guys.