Chicago White Sox

Our best bat last year? He was a below league average hitter with an OPS of like .720. We had guys better than him.

I think we have to accept the fact that Avi is a flawed but physically gifted guy who has a non-zero chance of putting it all together, but the odds of that happening with us are slim to none. We’ve given him 2,500 plate appearances, it’s officially time for us to move on.

It definitely is crazy. Now, will they actually spend up to $150M next year? Probably unlikely, but with the huge increases in National TV money in recent years, I think that type of payroll is possible at our current attendance levels. I fully expect us to get there by 2020 at the latest though.

He’ll probably be up by 2H 2020, but the beauty of this plan is you don’t have to rely on that happening. If he forces the issue then great, we can either move McCutchen to DH / the bench or shift Jimenez to 1B / DH. We would have a ton of flexibility on the positional side of things. If we want to be legit World Series contenders in 2020, that’s a good problem to have.

Alright, here’s my proposed “going for it” in 2019 plan. The idea is to put out a team that can challenge for the division next year and build up some hype from the fanbase (needed to secure that TV money) without sacrificing the future. Being honest here, I’m not a huge fan of spending big on Corbin, but he’s the only potential ace on the market and “going for it” requires adding someone of his caliber. I would definitely need Coop & Herm to vouch they can keep him healthy & productive. Free Agents: Manny Machado, 3B - 10/$375M (opt-outs after years 4, 5, & 6) Andrew McCutchen, OF - 2/$36M Brian Dozier, 2B - 1/$10M Patrick Corbin, LHP - 6/$129M Cody Allen, RHP - 1/$11M Drew Pomeranz, LHP - 1/$8M Trades: Carlos Rodon, LHP & Aaron Bummer, LHP for Jon Gray, RHP Yolmer Sánchez, 2B to Yankees for Freicer Perez, RHP  Roster (April 16th): Moncada, CF (0.6) McCutchen, RF (18.0) Machado, 3B (40.0) Abreu, 1B (16.0) Jimenez, LF (0.6) Palka, DH (0.6) Dozier, 2B (10.0) Narvaez, C (0.6) Anderson, SS (1.4) <Sub-Total: 87.9M> IF: Rondon (0.6) OF: Engel (0.6) UT: Delmonico (0.6) BC: Castillo (7.3) <Sub-total: 9.1M> Corbin (21.5) Gray (3.2) Lopez (0.6) Pomeranz (8.0) Giolito (0.6) <Sub-total: 33.9M> CL: Allen (11.0) SU: Hamilton (0.6) SU: Fry (0.6) MR: Jones (4.7) MR: Frare (0.6) MR: Burdi/Covey (0.6) LR: Banuelos/Stephens (0.6) <Sub-total: 18.7M>  <Grand-total: $149.6M> 2020 Transition Plan: Cease to rotation in 2H 2019 / 2020 Kopech to rotation in 2020 Tyler Johnson to bullpen in 2020 Madrigal to 2B in 2020 Zavala to C in 2H 2019 / 2020 Collins to C/DH/1B 2H 2019 /2020 Basabe to OF 2H 2019 / 2020

The calm before the storm.

I’d love Cutch on a two year deal. After that point, you’re likely blocking guys.

I would guess that +90% of free agents would not pass on an offer that’s 10% higher than the next best. I think once you get to that point, the intangibles just don’t matter. The players’ union also puts a ton of pressure on its stars to take max value and so does Boras. I think you’re being a bit pessimistic here. Regardless, I fully expect the Sox to add one high-end starter by the end of the winter meetings.

100% this / close thread.

When the guy starts off the podcast saying the Sox are in on Kluber, you know he’s full of shit.

I don’t disagree about a potential bias, but I do think he has a point with the quality of the umpiring.

He did say this, but I think he meant an early-opt out. And while I don’t think Bob really has any know here, I don’t believe the Sox would include one before year 4 anyways. If we’re going to risk significant long-term money, we better get these guys from 2020 to 2022 at minimum IMO.

Hostetler doesn’t agree with the idea that Collins will struggle worse against AAA pitching based on this quote:

2nd highest OBP in the Southern League.

It’s not just about this coming season, but the projected ratings over the life of the contract. In any business, current performance is the starting point for future expectations. From there you have to build a business case for why you expect things to change. If you’re starting point is worst in the league ratings and down 30% over the past two seasons, you’re not going to have a ton of leverage. A big name signing (like Harper) this offseason or some proof that things are trending upward would help tremendously.

What free agents would you like us to sign? Would you be upset if we landed Harper or Machado?

Listening to this podcast, I just can’t help but think Bob Nightengale just makes all this shit up.

You’re going to be mad if we don’t get both?

I don’t believe the Indians & Sox have made a trade in years. I doubt a Kluber trade at this juncture is what breaks that streak.

The Sox entered the rebuild with some of the lowest ratings in baseball and no hope of building a winner. There was no other alternative at the time. It was either die a slow death or the blow the whole thing up. And unfortunately for the Sox, they’ll likely have to see what the Cubs do with their new TV deal before they can really start negotiations. Yes, I’m sure they’ve had some preliminary dialogues with providers and I’m guessing those parties aren’t eager to sign a long term contract with a 100 loss team with the worst ratings in baseball and who has shown no willingness to spend on big name free agents. What we do this offseason and how fans respond to it early next season will almost certainly have an impact on our next TV deal.

Our local TV deal expires at the end of this season. Another 100 loss season with no signs of improvements will literally cost us significantly. There are legit business reasons to spend some money this year that go beyond trying to compete in 2019. I’m actually shocked so many posters continue to ignore this factor and would happily support another tanking season. Regardless, I am certain the TV deal situation will have an impact on our decision making this offseason. At very minimum, they will bring in some vets (likely pitchers) to improve the on-field product and signal a willingness to spend in the coming years. Ideally, I truly believe their goal is to land a whale and another bridge piece or two. Ultimate loclal TV revenue is simply too important to go into negotiations with zero leverage and the Sox know this.

Why can’t we trade a starter if we have too much “good” starting pitching?

Remember, all three of our SPs are flawed / busts, but somehow adding one starter to a multi-year deal suddenly blocks Kopech & Cease. Sometimes you got to admire Balta logic.

I thought BA had ranked Anderson 40th overall at one point (sorry, he only peaked at #45) and chose to label the broader group as “top 40” guys since I knew he was the lowest ranked of the bunch. Having said that, I think when I referenced top 50 for the rest of the guys in the system it should have been clear what I was going for. More than half of our highly regarded talents will already be with the team come the end of next April.

Exactly, Nelson Cruz on a one year deal will be the least of our problems at that point.