Chicago White Sox

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following: 1B: Abreu - 2.5 2B: Moncada - 4.0 SS: Anderson - 2.5 3B: Machado - 6.0 LF: Jimenez - 3.5 CF: Engel - 0.5 RF: McCutchen - 2.5 DH: Palka - 1.0 CA: Castillo - 2.0 Bench - 1.0 Subtotal = 25.5 #1: Corbin - 5.0 #2: Rodon - 3.0 #3: Lopez - 3.0 #4: Pomeranz - 1.5 #5: Giolito - 1.0 Bullpen - 4.0 Sub-total = 17.5 That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR. That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys. Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

Where are the 10 fWAR gap & $115M payroll coming from? I’m going to need you to provide me with a walk. But for the hell of it, I’ll say Corbin, Pomeranz, & Allen with Yolmer moved to clear some salary.

They also didn’t spend significantly in free agency.

Which is why we were using fWAR in our theoretical and not W-L record? Now you’re just arguing with yourself.

Great analysis. There are additional moves to the pitching staff I would make that would hopefully help offset the gap. You’re also assuming the Indians will automatically repeat last year’s performance. That is a bold assumption given that they’ve already lost a couple key pieces, might trade one of their elite starters, and had near perfect health from all their stars last year.

Again, not everyone on the Braves took a huge leap. All teams have some holes / weaknesses.

I’ve listed the names of the “polished college bats”, but for your reference they are Schwarber, Conforto, Swanson, Bregman, & Benitendi. I’d wager a lot of organizations would have called up Senzel in 2017, but technically I can’t include him.

? I didn’t mention anything about a potential pitching staff?

Wow, you’re sticking with ERA as a better indicator of pitching staff quality than fWAR. You are literally the walking example of the dangers of people incorrectly using statistics to make any argument they want.

Add Machado & McCutchen and suddenly the only holes we have on the positional side are CF & DH. Backup catcher can be assessed on the cheap and provide similar overall production.

This is just a ridiculous post. The Braves & A’s were 13th & 17th in pitching fWAR last year respectively. Throw in Cubs at 18th and your theory is completely bunk. There isn’t some golden rule on the quality of a pitching staff to make the playoffs. All a bad staff means is more pressure on your positional guys to produce big.

The Oakland A’s won 97 games last year due to their young positional group. The Braves won 90 games with two of their best players being first year guys in Albies & Acuna. Neither team had a dominant pitching staff. You & Balta act like any holes / question marks means a team can’t be competitive and that’s simply not true. Development isn’t linear and young players in particular can take massive strides in short periods of time. Moncada & Jimenez are elite talents capable of leading a huge turnaround next year. If you want to wait for those guys to breakthrough before investing in the team, you risk losing a crucial year of service time if it happens next year and you don’t have a respectable roster. That doesn’t mean we should go all-in by any means, but the days of tanking should end the moment Eloy is up here.

He asked how many guys we pushed through quickly, I wasn’t arguing whether it was right or wrong. My original point remains the same that polished college bats tend to move quickly. And unlike with Rodon & Fulmer, the guys I’m referenced have had very good major league careers.

Saying the Sox could theoretically make the playoffs with enough spending and development of their young players <> mean they will make the playoffs. You are moving he goalposts.

I gave you three examples in the last two years and none of them included the level of free agent spending I’m suggesting.

Add a whale, address the low hanging fruit with veteran free agents, and then hope our young guys develop & make an impact. Teams with young talent take massive leaps all the time. While the odds of competing for the division next year are low, it’s far from the impossibility you’re making it out to be.

I think Madrigal is very different than any high draft pick we’ve made in quite some time. Regardless, both Rodon & Fulmer reached the majors in their first full season. Burdi would have too had he not gotten injured.

Dipoto is a terrible GM, perhaps the worst in baseball. That trade sucks a fat you know what. Like how is Crawford all you in return when you take on Santana?

There’s a pretty good track record of polished college bats reaching the majors during their first full season. If Madrigal’s hit tool / bat control is as good as we think it is, I fully expect him to be ready by opening day 2020.

I think the Sox are operating in that next tier with guys like Happ, Eovaldi, etc.

I think it will be the Yankees or Nationals.

Of course they are. But other than the Phillies for both guys & the Yankees for Machado, I don’t see any other teams to be scared of. And I don’t believe for a second the Phillies will sign both guys.

Any analysis of Narvaez that doesn’t include defense is flawed. As of today, he’s one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball. Maybe that changes to some extent over time, but I’m not really convinced it will. I also don’t buy into the power surge he showed last year. To me, now was the time to sell and I’m assuming the Sox shopped him around a bit and felt Colome was the best offer. I really don’t see this move coming back to bite us.

They probably will, but I still think we have a good chance of landing the other one. This reminds of the Abreu market when the stars aligned and most of the big spenders had little to no interest. Outside of the Yankees with Machado, I don’t see any serious threats. And I’m not convinced the Yankees are prepared to offer a record setting contract for Machado just yet.

WTF?!