Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Soha @ Jan 21, 2017 -> 02:28 PM) The bummer for me is they haven't ripped this down anywhere near close enough to be in the Seth Beer sweepstakes. Frazier, Cabrera, Abreu...they're all still here and will help win many games this coming season. So it's more looking like a partial rebuild than a full rebuild, which is a little disappointing. The team is going to suck regardless, but right now as the roster stands, I don't see a chance at the 1st or 2nd pick. And something conveniently ignored by the "wait" crowd is how much more valuable those first few picks are from a historical perspective than other 1st rounders. Who here thinks the Cubs win the World Series last year without Kris Bryant? A guy like Seth Beer could have a similar kind of impact for us and trading Quintana would greatly improve our odds of drafting such a player. Again, I'm not suggesting taking a crap offer, but the decision to trade Q now or wait and hope for a better offer later better consider that opportunity cost. The decision should also consider what waiting does to our competitive window and the value of other assets. Rodon & Anderson are already up. Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, & Burdi should be up by June or July. That's a huge part of our core and the clock starts ticking this year. Pushing back a Quintana trade until the deadline will likely result in prospects further away from helping, which means it could be several years until they are productive major leaguers supplementing our existing core. That pushes back our competitive window and forces us to waste valuable seasons out of key assets while we're waiting for reinforcements to arrive. Just another opportunity cost that must be factored in when deciding whether to sell now or hold off in hopes for more down the road.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Jan 21, 2017 -> 08:32 AM) The 2017 White Sox team is going to be a train wreck. The team has 4 major holes at catcher, CF, Rf and DH. Plus they just traded one of the best pitchers in MLB (Sale). They have done NOTHING to improve this team this off season. After Frazier + Cabrera leave after the 2017 season the 2018 White Sox team will even be worse than the 2017 team. My only hope for the team is that after the 2018 season (hopefully before that) JR sells the team. It's called a rebuild bro, they're supposed to suck.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 05:45 PM) TOR starters dont have an ERA of 4. And for those who are FIP adherents Archer's FIP wasn't much better. He struck a lot of guys out and pitched 200 innings, which is good, but he wasn't very effective last year. Definitely wouldn't go into 2017 expecting him to be anything more than a 3, and a good one at that. He could certainly bounce back and pitch like a 2 (he's never really been a 1, and neither has Quintana) but I wouldn't count on it. I really think you're underrating him, his HR/FB rate looks like a clear outlier to me. With any semblance of a bounce back, he's at least a legit #2 starter.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 07:48 AM) I would imagine the Sox have some really nice offers, maybe one or two where they would pull the trigger, but I think they like another team's players even better and may be waiting to see if they will become involved. Ultimately what will matter is how the guys they get actually play, not where BA or Keith Law or BP or MLB.com rank them before they ever play a major league game. That is exactly what I'm suggesting. That they likely have some nice offers on the table, but have specific targets (Meadows, Torres, etc) they're waiting to see if ultimately become available. Any by all means wait until spring training and see if one of those untouchables suddenly become touchable. We control THIS market and can take our time for now. But I'll keep repeating this, if one of those targets doesn't become available, don't pass up on good value right now in hopes of a perfect offer later. Nothing is promised tomorrow. If teams aren't willing to pony up in what is considered the worst free agent market for starting pitching in the history of baseball, I find it highly unlikely we'll do better at the deadline or next offseason when market conditions are less favorable.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 05:48 AM) Of all the things in a Quintana deal, the surest thing is Q. If you are worried not trading him will screw everything up, you should be more worried trading him asap and just taking what they can get, will screw everything up. All the guys the Wox received for Sale and Eaton look great on paper, but as of now we really don't know if any of them can really play, let alone as well as Sale or Eaton. I just find it hard to believe that in this market where there are literally no other TOR alternatives that offers wouldn't be strong. We all say we don't want Hahn to accept a crappy offer, but why do we think teams would allow one of their competitors to get Quintana on the cheap? For example, if the Pirates' best offer was Glasnow, Hayes, & Diaz, do you honestly think the Astros & Braves would stand pat and not top that? The only way we're going to get a crappy offer is if the market is significantly constrained from the buyer's side and demand just isn't there. And that's simply not the case based on everything we know about interest in Q. My concern is that Hahn will wait for the perfect offer, which may or not never happen by. Waiting doesn't guarantee s***, but it does put our most important asset at risk of losing signicant value from a combination of factors including injury, underperformance, & less favorable market conditions. It also pushes back this rebuild most likely due delaying the development time for whatever prospects are acquired and could greatly impact our draft position next year that has some elite talents at the top. Long story short, I simply don't see the potential reward from holding Quintana until July (or longer) worth the inherent risk and opportunity costs.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 11:00 PM) When Rosenthal starts saying it I start to really worry. Yeah, I'm starting to get worried too. I'm not going to say much more on this because we don't know the offers, but holding onto Quintana into next season scares the s*** out of me. Has the potential to f*** up this rebuild very quickly.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 07:00 PM) Frazier put up a 2.4 WAR in 2016 a down year for him. It would be a career high for Trumbo. Napoli was a 1.0 WAR guy. Chances are Baltimore still overpaid. It seems contenders aren't looking for a 3B right now. Eventually at least a couple will be through injury or poor performance. Frazier improves his BABIP, and keeps his career best walk rate up, he should be a coveted guy during the season. Melky, the Sox will probably have to eat some cash unless he is just smoking the ball. Thank you for posting this. Drives me crazy seeing people lump Frazier into the one-dimensional slugger category when he's a solid 3B.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:55 PM) You think it'll be that quick? I know they'll wait a bit to get the extra year of control, but he was drafted just a little while ago. I'm interested in knowing his ETA because of my fantasy league I mean there was serious talk of him being called up at the end of last year. Unless the bullpen is firing on all cylinders, I think he'll be up as soon as we get the extra year of control on him.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:24 PM) Somewhat related to this thread, but when do you guys expect Burdi to be in Chicago? Sometime in June.

Really hope Bonds & Clemens never get in.

QUOTE (Soha @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 01:03 PM) One thing you don't seem to be accounting for - is that maybe the market is tapped of teams with high-end prospects who are willing to move them for pitching? Since the summer the Cubs, Indians, Nationals and Red Sox have all given up a ton for pitching. That market might be tapped right now. So even if the ideal circumstances to trade Q is better now than a year from now (which I agree with you on), you very well might have an easier time moving him them. New prospects develop, different teams have different needs...the deck gets shuffled and new players emerge. And yeah there's risk. There's also risk that prospects you acquire can be lost to injuries as well. That's a fair point, but one I'm not willing to bank on it. If anything, I'm concerned the new international free agency rules will cause the big market teams to be even more conservative in trading prospects. In the past, they could simply go out and spend their way to replace any prospects traded. With that option gone, I think we see more teams act like the Dodgers and go into hoard mode.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:47 PM) If we hold onto him, we just need teams like the Rockies, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and even the Yankees to play good the first 3-4 months and all of a sudden, his value is higher due to more teams being competitive and needing another starter (competitive teams are always looking for a starter). Heck, you might be able to get some of their rivals in discussions. The teams I listed are the teams I want to trade with the most. You've completely ignored the seller side of the equation. Four months from now Archer & Gray may be more attractive and/or more readily available. There also may be some rental options available that don't require a team gutting the top end of their system.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:35 PM) Seeing as Q is still signed for 4 more years, losing a year isn't going to hurt his value that much. This isn't a guy hitting free agency in 1 or 2 years. I think Q is the last big chip we have. Losing him for an inferior return will hurt this rebuild way worse than holding on to him for another year would. There are literally no other cost-controlled TOR starters available right now without serious question marks. We 100% control the market. To expect the same or better market conditions a year from now is crazy. There's a non-zero chance that someone gets desperate at the deadline and you potentially get a better offer, but you must value that incremental return on a probability-adjusted basis against your downside risk. For some reason, many posters here seem to think that as long as Hahn waits, someone will eventually meet his price, which is absolutely bonkers to me. What happens if Hahn holds his ground for another year or two before realizing he overplayed his hand? He will then have to cave and accept a much lesser return than he could have originally got this offseason because Quintana is now a less valuable asset due to less control. And a player's value can change significantly in a year. Look at what's happened to Sonny Gray. He'll need another four to six months of strong performance before teams consider paying a TOR starter price tag for him. God forbid Quintana gets injured and the amount of time it takes to re-establish his value is even longer. And let's not ignore that Quintana's value is directly tied to his years of control. Once he gets under three years IMO, he radically starts losing value. Again, assuming the Sox receive a strong offer, they'd be crazy not to accept in hopes of getting a perfect offer at the deadline or following offseason.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:14 PM) If the argument is that a deal has to be made right now, no matter what, you are saying that the team has to accept the best offer on the table, no matter what. That means taking potentially less than if you were able to wait out a better offer. So even if the statement isn't there, the idea is implicit in saying the trade has to get done NOW. There's no guarantee that waiting results in a better offer though. In fact, many posters here have detailed why it's unlikely to expect better offer in the future than right now. That's not to say it's impossible to get a better offer by waiting, but the question quickly becomes how much is the potential upside worth relative to the potential downside of holding him into next season. I just can't put together a rational scenario where the market dynamics play out in such a way that the projected reward exceeds the incremental risks. Without knowing specific offers this obviously is just speculation, but passing on a strong offer now in hopes of a perfect offer later is a fool's bet. Quintana is too valuable to this rebuild to take that gamble.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 09:25 AM) The point was that there is a wider range of players available in January than there is in June/July and that's true. Certainly there's a full spectrum of outcomes that could happen with the players in consideration now and that's worth noting. However, the underlying point that is indisputable in my opinion is the fact that the Sox have a wider pool of players to choose from than they will in July. There are players that could "potentially" help an MLB team in 2017 that are available now like Glasnow. If Glasnow sticks with Pittsburg and becomes a #3 type this year, he's out. Sox aren't getting him anymore. Same could be said with Martes, Albies and potential other headliners. This isn't even considering the risk of Quintana getting hurt, underperforming or having his value flogged down with bad luck in a small sample size (high BABIP, unsustainable HR/FB%, bad defense, etc.). If you're Chris Sale or Kershaw your value won't be touched by a three months of a say, 4.2 ERA, but if you're Jose Quintana...who knows how that affects things. He's not the sexy American with a 98 MPH who's been under baseball fans' microscope for ten years. He's the minor league free agent from Columbia who you're pleasantly surprised hits 93 MPH. He takes the ball every fifth days and uses everything in his repertoire to get people out. At this point, despite his contract and track record, his value is far from fungible. He's more susceptible to a value regression than most of his value equivalents. It's hard to say what the Sox should do without seeing the actual offers, but to me, his value is likely higher than it ever will be and the returns are not going to have the inclusiveness they have now until next November. Great post...agree 100%.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:38 AM) If their plan works in 3 years which means they will have him for at least 2, if he doesn't sign another contract. As people have stated here he is a very good pitcher. Pitchers like him are difficult to find. If they don't receive a really good offer for him, it doesn't make sense to trade him. He signed a team friendly deal and may stick around longer. They shouldn't trade him for less than what he is worth to the sox as a TOR pitcher. That's the problem though, he's only worth one or two years as a TOR starter to us based on our projected competive window. While I'm not suggesting they settle for a crap offer, you don't need multiple all-stars to come out ahead. If we end up with even one 3 WAR per year player that can provide that value over the course of five years when we'll actually be competive, we are definitely better off. That's why holding Quintana through the rebuild in hopes he can be part of our next competive team makes no sense.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:48 AM) It's about a 70 win team. Once Q and Frazier go, you are looking at 65 win territory. I expect other guys to move as season goes along. San Diego will be awful but Sox should be right in that top 5 mix. Seth Beer has 2 seasons still before he can even be drafted. People are going a little overboard. We have the 2017 draft, international period, trade deadline, and offseason before we even get to worry about Seth Beer. It's a bit ridiculous. You're also overrating current roster. This is a bad team that won't be able to score runs. Sure, if we move Quitana & Frazier we might have a shot at challenging the Padres, but it doesn't seem likely we'll move Todd before the season. I think you're underestimating how bad the Padres will actually be next year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 07:13 AM) For the next 3 weeks, Rick Hahn has just as little pressure to get this done as the teams out there have to make the deal. How exactly are these teams going to fall out of the market for Q? The Astros are going to find someone better? They're going to get Sonny Gray and tell themselves that solves the problem of their rotation being inconsistent? Not sure I understand what you're getting at here.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 06:44 AM) Do the Astros try go after Chris Archer again? Unless they want to give up Bregman, I don't see it happening. Rumor is they turned down an offer of Martes, Tucker, Paulino, ++. Realistically, the Astros can't offer much more than that unless they include major league pieces like Bregman and/or Musgrove.

Team is not nearly bad enough to get into the Beer mix as it stands today.

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 05:07 AM) Gammons source saying Gray to Astros won't happen. Color me surprised Never made any sense, at least not for Houston. Gray won't be dealt until the trade deadline at the earliest.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:10 AM) Do you have a link to this interview? I'd love to hear it. It was on WSCR last year, someone filling in for Lawrence Holmes interviewed him.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 10:09 PM) The first part is exactly right. i disagree with the second part. Q will still be under contract when the team is good again. If he is still around, the Sox will have a variety of pitchers to try to build a great pitching staff, then they can buy hitters because all of the pitchers will be at a very low cost. When will the team be good again if we don't move Quintana? How much control will we have over him at that time?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 10:00 PM) I generally love your insight, but lately you seem to be allowing impatience to cloud your judgment. This post is entirely speculation (albeit perhaps informed). It's definitely speculation, but based on the variety of rumors we've heard. And Merkin made it seem pretty clear last night in an interview that Hahn would likely need to come down from his very high ask to get a deal done. His example was something along the lines, "Would you be willing to take Meadows, but maybe accept three prospects back instead of four or take lesser secondary pieces". It really came off that Hahn is still asking for the moon, like say Glasnow & Bell in addition to Meadows. No way is that a realistic ask, but we saw Hahn do this with the Red Sox at the trade deadline for Sale. And this approach works fine for now. We don't technically have to move Quintana this offseason (although I think we should) and can wait it out a bit longer to see if a team gets desperate as spring training nears. At the bare minimum, it's probably forced teams to move past the typical bulls*** starting offers and put something with some actual substance on the table. Again, this is all speculation, but I find it hard to believe the Astros offered their top three prospects plus two others for Archer, but wouldn't come close to that for Quintana. I really think we're sitting on a strong offer from the Astros. If I had to guess, Hahn likes what the Yankees & Pirates could potentially offer better (Torres/Frazier & Meadows) and is simply waiting them out. That's fine for now when we're the only seller on the market and have all the leverage, but I don't think you can go into the season with the hope either team changes their tune. Ultimately, I think Hahn will happily take a Martes/Tucker headlined package for Quintana if that's the best he can do this offseason. I think there is far too much risk in waiting until the deadline to make a move when you consider the likelihood of an improved outcome. And I truly believe Hahn feels the same exact way. He's obviously not going to settle for garbage, but he's also not going to pass on a strong collection of prospects right now in hopes of getting a perfect offer down the road.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 09:43 PM) Why? Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right? Why should we compromise? In regards to a barren pitching market, how many assets have you seen become available like Q before? Irregardless of how many other SP's might come on the market in the next 6-18 months, how many do you suppose will provide the surplus value that Quintana does, especially if teams aren't showing a willingness to liquidate their prospects for such assets? This notion that some influx of other reasonable arms coming on the market is somehow going to water down Quintana's market is pure horses***. You don't think those pitchers are truly available today, as potential tradeable assets rather than free agents? You don't think the Tigers would trade Verlander? It's not a question of a barren market, it's question of an asset being so valuable that teams are hesitant to liquidate assets for them. That shouldn't cause us to lower our price. What that requires is patience. Finding the "right" buyer isn't always a fast process, but that buyer does exist. Hahn will find them. I don't think Hahn perceives his current ask to be fair value. I think he's simply testing how desperate teams are in the off chance someone will do a Shelby Miller 2.0 trade. Right now, he's the only seller in town and he can take his time without worrying too much about teams moving on to other alternatives. But the reality is at some point he needs to come off these purposely exaggerated demands and try to get a deal done. There is no doubt in my mind he's sitting on some pretty nice offers. And honestly, the best way for him to improve those offers is being prepared to accept one and force another team to top it or lose out of Quintana for good.