Chicago White Sox

Gillaspie >>>>>>> Davidson Hindsight might be a b****, but guys that hit below .200 in AAA would have got destroyed in the majors. There really is no argument to be had here.

QUOTE (The Wiz @ Sep 4, 2014 -> 11:39 AM) I don't understand how the previous offseasons relate to this one at all. First off this upcoming offseason the Sox will literally have at least 30 million to spend I'd say. 2nd off, 2014 is/was clearly a rebuilding/retooling year while we wait to clear the roster of the deadweight. The Sox aren't the Cubs, they can't commit to a long term rebuild over several years and still expect to draw fans to the park. They definitely are going to make 1 big free agent signing because they have to and try and get some excitement around the team, 2nd round draft pick be damned. Yeah, I don't get why it's so bad to lose a 2nd round pick that is years away but trading away several prospects to acquire a player is acceptable.

Where can I get platoon stats on Conor pre and post all-star break? Is it possible he's been facing more LHP in the second half?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 10:54 PM) I like to study all of the teams' systems, but the Cubs or Astros are more entertaining for differing reasons. That's fine but you're literally name-dropping Cubs prospects for no reason.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 10:44 PM) Then you've still got Russell, Almora, Schwarber, McKinney and Vogelbach. Your obsession with Cubs' prospects is unparalleled.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) B&B and other shows have been touching on the topic of Baez lately. It is way too early to make any sweeping generalizations. However, if Baez ends up being Mark Reynolds, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. He's a 2B. Even if he K's a ton, plays average defense, and hits 30-35 bombs a year with a low average, I'd take that. Many would be disappointed with that but jeez how many 2B hit like that? Not many. Mark Reynolds can draw walks though, so I'm not sure that's a great comp offensively. It's way too early to jump to any conclusions, but Baez is going to make some serious strides to be worth a damn.

Right now these guys seem like locks for next year: 1B: Abreu 2B: Johnson/Semien/Sanchez SS: Ramirez 3B: Gillaspie CF: Eaton RF: Garcia That's six spots in our lineup already filled. As of today, here's how we'd fill the other spots internally: C: Flowers LF: Tank/Semien/Danks/Taylor/Mitchell DH: Tank/Wilkins/Taylor I agree that LF & DH are higher priorities, but improving at catcher should also be on the to-do list. Flowers may be passable by league standards, but hoping for average production out of a position should never be a goal. I'm pretty sure Hahn will be looking for an upgrade this offseason, whether he can find one at semi-reasonable price will be the true challenge.

Grandal is the guy I really want. Even in a down year, he's posted a wRC+ of 105 against RHP. He and Flower would make a great platoon and give us above average production at the position. Sucks that Austin Hedges had a bad year, not sure the Padres will be motivated to move Grandal this offseason.

Quintana is currently 9th in WAR for starting pitchers. Even if you don't love advanced metrics, it's quite clear that Jose is an incredible pitcher. Moving him creates yet another hole in the rotation and pushes back our competitive window another 2 to 3 years IMO. I'm 100% against trading Quintana. Him, Sale, & Rodon can be the core of an elite rotation for the next 5 years. Trading him for potential impact players is a bad idea when he already is one and is already signed to a team-friendly long-term deal.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 01:29 PM) That people made it personal? Who made it personal other than TUC?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 31, 2014 -> 12:05 PM) If absolute best effort is not having an offseason program, then yeah, Dunn put in his best effort. Dunn seems like a decent dude but it was a move that had to made. Dumping Beckham, ADA and Dunn just makes me so much more excited for the offseason. There should be lots of new faces all over the place. Unfortunately, Dunn leaving town brings on the unintended consequence that TUC will have to come up with new material, sigh. 100% agree raBBit. Not sure I understand why exactly Adam Dunn was an A+ human being, but he must have done some great things in his life off the baseball field to deserve such praise. On the field, he was extremely bad for us. Including 2011, he provided us with -1.3 WAR for the small price of $55M. Excluding 2011, he averaged about 0.6 WAR a season. While I'm not one who sees WAR as the be all end all, it should be pretty apparent that the dude sucked for us outside of 2012. I don't wish him ill-will, but I definitely won't be glorifying a guy who provided us with minimal contributions for a f***ton of money.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 09:09 PM) All it takes is a bit of history, the Forbes numbers, and some common sense. Yup, let's start with some history, six out of the seven years prior to this season the Sox had a $100M+ payroll. And then let's consider your beloved Forbes numbers, where the Sox lost $3M last year with a $120M payroll. Now add some common sense, like an additional $20M in national TV money and the fact that the Sox offered Tanaka a seven figure deal this past offseason, and it's easy to see a $100M payroll next year is beyond a reasonable assumption.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 03:05 PM) Based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox lost ~$5 million last year with a $110 million payroll. They have seen a continued erosion of 1000 tickets sold per game so far this season, a number that is likely to increase before the year ends since we still have the crappy late-september attendances to get through. Their new revenue stream in 2014 is the MLB national TV deal money, which offsets a portion of the erosion in ticket sales since 2013, but they're also reportedly near the bottom of the league in TV ratings and advertising money right now. All of this has worked together to make the White Sox in 2014 profitable at a level of $91 million based on public statements, but there is no new revenue stream coming onto the table next year compared to this year. The continued erosion of revenues at the gate and in the ballpark we're witnessing means that if the team holds steady at $91 million, they're closer to their break-even point than this year and if they go beyond it there's a good chance they go into the red unless they can push ticket sales the other way. I can't give you exact numbers to within a million dollars, but I think it's pretty clear that in 2014 their break-even payroll would be in the range of $100 million and they would have every reason to expect continued erosion of ticket sales by about 1000/game next year, along with little/no boost in ratings or ad sales. If they'd signed Tanaka at what they'd offered him they'd very likely be in the red for another season. I could see them doing that if a 27 year old good fit was on the free agent market. I cannot see them doing that for 34-36 year old stopgaps. Balta, have you ever worked in the business world? You realize they could cut other operating expenses and increase payroll without an increase in revenue right? There's a lot more that goes into the operating profit equation for a baseball team than just revenue and payroll. And how the f*** do you know they have no new revenue streams next year? Where do you come up with this stuff? I have never seen someone infer so much from a basic Forbes article.

Balta, I'm amazed that your able to determine the White Sox's break even-point so accurately, but you can't account for their $46M in payroll obligations next year. John Danks $15,750,000 Alexei Ramirez $10,000,000 Jose Abreu $8,666,666 Chris Sale $6,000,000 Jeff Keppinger $4,500,000 Jose Quintana $1,000,000 Felipe Paulino $250,000 The $46M already includes Keppinger's corpse and Paulino's buyout. You're right about the arb guys and the total cost of all the minimum salaries however, so we probably are near $60M to field a full roster. Either way, I have no doubt the Sox will be able to afford a $100M payroll next year, regardless of if they actually spend it. While I'm impressed that you have direct access to the Sox's financials, you've yet to convince me that we're approaching some $90M payroll limitation, especially when you have no insight into their 2015 revenue forecasts that their payroll budget will be based on.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 04:13 PM) There's evidence that the #5 hole is a great place for a high contact hitter with some propensity for doubles. I think that Alexei, at his best, is a great candidate for #5. From #4 though, I want more dingers. Most studies point to #4 being an even more important position for an all-around offensive threat than people think -- most people's idea of a perfect #3 hitter is usually a better #4 hitter. IMO, this lineup is best with Abreu at #4 and a lefty at #3. Assuming Eaton (L) at leadoff, that works out perfectly as Adam Dunn, with Conor at #5, thus sandwiching Abreu with Lefties and use Connor's "high contact and doubles" really well. In this scenario, I like Ramirez at #2 because of his right handed bat, though ideally we'd like a guy that gets on base more. L Eaton R Ramirez L Dunn R Abreu L Gillaspie ? ? ? ? This is why I love the idea of bringing in Victor Martinez. 1. Eaton 2. Semien 3. Martinez 4. Abreu That has the potential to be a perfectly constructed 1-4 and would be put an insane amount of men on-base before Abreu.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 11:54 AM) My best guess is that right now, assuming De Aza and Viciedo aren't back, the Sox have about $60 million in commitments for next season (with the caveat that we don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is budgeted). With the higher draft and international spending this and next year, and decreasing revenues at the gate, my best guess is that the Sox will have up to $30 million to spend next offseason. They could probably push past that for the right guy, but only if they're in a situation where they think a guy is a perfect fit for the next 5+ years or something like that. $30 million isn't bad, but it's not going to land Shields + VMart + relievers. To add to each of those areas the Sox would have to think about pushing the payroll back into the $115-$120 million range next year, and they lost money at $110 million in payroll last season. I hate doing this all over again, but you're absolutely nuts if you think we're limited to a $90M payroll next year. Budgets are always forwarding looking and both Kenny & Hahn have recently expressed optimism for next season. They've hinted at using their financial flexibility to add some key pieces. No way in hell are they tied this season's payroll, which we already know wasn't maxed out by the Tanaka offer made. And how are you getting to this $60M number? What are you expecting the few arb guys likely to return to actually make?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) Like say, 3/$45 to a 36 year old DH? Shouldn't he have broken down a long time ago based on your wrong side of 30 theory?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) He is a target that could intrigue me more than any of the other names you mentioned. Wow, overplaying for a closer in free agency is amongst the worst ways we could spend our money. And how adding a closer intrigues you more than a #2 starter or a 3/4 hitter blows my mind.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 08:28 AM) I don't mind giving up a draft pick to get VMart, because he's far and away the best hitter available. No way I'm giving him $60M, and if it's a 4 year deal it would have to be very front-loaded. Somebody else probably will give him $60M though, so I don't expect to see him on the Sox in 2015. Agree on the draft pick. And I would definitely go 3/$45 to bring him in, but that might not be enough.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 06:47 PM) If he was suspended for that, one would think he would have deleted it Good point, just thought the timing was interesting, especially since he hasn't started in 12 days.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 05:27 PM) Probably wrong here, but judging by Adams twitter, he seems to be goin through a bit of a rough patch. Questioning who his real friends are, saying he hopes it all works out one day, asking himself why all the time, and retweeting some sad stuff. Now I fancy myself the Dr. Phil of NWI, and from what I've gathered, he either broke up with his girl or he was chasing after a girl he liked, got friend zoned and is taking it hard. Probably wrong on that being the reason, but who knows maybe the kid is emotionally fragile when it comes to the ladies and his minds not right right now... If you want a good conspiracy theory, I would say it's more likely he was punished for calling someone on twitter a "f*****" the day after his last start.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) If Dunn moves, it's "cash considerations or PTBNL." So I caution, if you want Dunn to move, be prepared to accept that the best thing that will happen is someone else gets PT. I'd happily take nothing and open ABs to give to a guy like Semien.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 08:53 PM) But we're also down over 1000 tickets per game sold, again, and that's prior to the weak numbers that appear in September. Every reason to believe that revenues outside of that $20 million have continued to decline. At best, we might be using that $20 million to tread water in revenue, and again, the team was estimated to lose money last year. If they are going to bump payroll back up to $100 million, then we better either be certain we can put a winning team on the field and reverse those trends, or we better be ready for the Sox to go back to being hugely under-slot on the draft and international spending to pay for it. 1,000 tickets a game is worth how much exactly? And how has our average ticket price changed year over year? Also, how much extra money did we spend on the draft and amateur international free agents in 2014 vs. 2013?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 08:26 PM) That extra $20 million replaces most of what the team spent on amateurs and Jose Abreu's signing bonus this year. We're talking about next year? That $20M will still be there.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 08:00 PM) Considering the team lost money last year, and every revenue stream is pretty much promised to be down this season, and they just spent way more money on the minor league system then they have in the teams history... Yeah, it isn't hard to envision something decently under $100 million. The Sox lost $2M last year with a $120M payroll and an absolutely horrific ticket pricing model. Add $20M in incremental revenue from the new national TV deal and it's nearly impossible to think we can't afford a $100M+ payroll.