Chicago White Sox

I totally get what you’re saying, although I don’t agree they’re as close you think they are. That being said, all else being equal, yeah I’d rather spend money than trade our prospects. I do think Musgrove is far more interesting than the free agents willing to take a 1/$10Mish deal though.

I would take Musgrove. 1) Three years younger. 2) Has recently put up a 170 inning season (Smyly hasn’t since 2016) and is less likely to tire out over the course of a full season. 3) Better xwOBA in small sample that was 2020 (.268 vs .287). 4) Solid xwOBA in larger sample that was 2019 (.312) while Smyly really struggled (probably due recovering from his injury, but still somewhat a red flag). 5) Higher spin rates / more movement on his breaking balls. I actually think Smyly is a pretty fascinating buy low guy, but I’d definitely have more confidence in Musgrove.

It has everything to do with ERA. This is one of the maddening debates I have ever witnessed on this board. FIP is an estimate of what a pitcher’s ERA would be independent of fielding, luck, and sequencing (i.e. the things they control). If you think there are other variables that a pitcher can control (implying that FIP is incomplete), that’s a different argument. However, saying FIP has nothing to do with ERA or can’t be compared to it is 100% wrong. That’s literally its entire purpose.

If the price is right...hopefully!

Sounds like his future is in the bullpen

100% depends on the price for Musgrove. To be honest, I’m a little worried they spend most of their money on Hendriks and then trade for a cheap C tier starter like Brault. I really want to land Hendriks, but not at the expense of a decent 4th starter.

That includes about $4.6M in pro-rated signing bonuses. Not sure how they account for those internally since they are non-cash at this point, but that would further limit our spending ability if they include them in their $135M to $140M payroll target.

Moving on from FIP, what’s your breaking point on a Joe Musgrove trade? Who’s willing to do something Thompson + Beard + Adolfo? If yes, how much further would you be willing to go?

Which is why balls in play are excluded from the equation.

Wasn’t last year at $130M? If it weren’t for the pandemic, I’d expect us to be $150M+, so it doesn’t really feel all that outlandish.

Exactly...FIP is literally a theoretical ERA independent of fielding and luck. HRs, BBs, & Ks are simply the drivers / inputs used to generate a theoretical ERA given their correlation with run prevention. It’s really pretty straight forward and I can’t believe it’s even be debated.

Appreciate the back & forth, but I’m done going down this rabbit hole and highly recommend you spend more time thinking through this and how multi-variable equations in general work. Like just read the link I sent you and hopefully it will all click at some point, because right now you’re completely off-base.

Hmm...that solves part of the gap, but not sure what the remaining difference would be then. I’m using spotrac for what it’s worth. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/payroll/

Really? Let’s just hope they don’t trade for a closer if they miss out on Hendriks. Way too many quality relievers are available for likely reasonable prices.

Are you including dead money / buy-outs and allocated signing bonuses?

Clearly you’re punking me at this point, so I’ll simply say you’re wrong and leave it at that to avoid me further disrupting the thread.

Which is terrifying. At least our existing core is pretty damn good and Lynn & Hendriks should be quality additions. Any frustration I have is more around a lack of killer instinct from Jerry when he already has a cheap core in place and could really make a statement with a small amount of money.

They are both trying to measure earned runs per nine innings (one actual, the other theoretical) and are 100% intended to be compared!?!

Seems like all but a certainty at this point.

Nothing like going “all-in” on a tight budget!

Those are the inputs in a multi-variable equation to predict ERA.

I can’t see them moving Cease or Kopech, which means Madrigal would have to be the prospect in question. Did he suggest what position they’d be targeting? Has to be starting pitching right?

What in the world are you talking about? FIP is an estimate of what a pitcher’s ERA would be if you stripped out fielding. It’s 100% meant to be compared to ERA to see how much fielding and/or luck played a role in a pitcher’s season and give you a better indicator of what a pitcher’s ERA would be all else being equal. WHIP is simply a measure of how many base runners a pitcher puts on-base per inning. I have no idea how you think any of what you just said is true.

That would be such a terrible use of resources. If Grandal is so bad at actually catching that we need to prioritize an expensive, 38 year old backup above other needs then the first move should be to fire Hahn and/or the pro scouts who endorsed him. Like I can’t even stress how pissed I’d be if we spent like $7M+ on Molina and go cheap with the #4 spot in the rotation and/or don’t add a left-handed bat to the mix.

I mostly agree here, but trading someone like Micker Adolfo for a backup catcher seems nuts to me. I would explore moving him for the reasons you state, but would much rather use him as a sweetener in a more impactful move, whether that be now or at the trade deadline.