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Everything posted by royoung
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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 09:10 PM) Ravelo 2-2, 2 doubles Rangel still rules the world.
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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?s...mp;ymd=20140611 Charlotte is off McCully- Birmingham Bucciferro- Winston Salem Barnette- Kannapolis Kannapolis and Winston-Salem rained out. Barons just underway after a delay.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) IF he were to sign for slot, that would leave the Sox the ability to throw around $500k and a college full ride at him. Probably still not enough. Oh well. Enjoy college, kid.
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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) Which makes me more confident than if they had only signed a handful of 2-10 picks And perhaps not confident about signing Montes de Oca.
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 11:24 AM) How many of those five young "tough/questionable sign" arms can the Cubs realistically bring into the fold? 2? 3? Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB 13m That order, but I bet all 3. @FantasyRundown: Of Sands, Steele, and Cease...rank them in terms of most likely signed by @Cubs? @MLBDraft I know those are the big three, not sure who the other two tough signs are. Didn't follow their draft that closely.
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Jonathan Mayo @JonathanMayoB3 2m As @CarrieMuskat reported @KyleSchwarber's $3.125 mil bonus, savings allows @Cubs to use almost $1.5 mil elsewhere in top 10 rds @MLBDraft Cubs sign Schwarber.
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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) For Rodon? For Fry? For both? I'm assuming Rodon. He posted earlier saying his signing is coming "pretty soon."
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QUOTE (knightni @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 10:01 AM) Why did Lechich sign for so low? College senior. No leverage whatsoever.
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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 09:26 AM) And it may BE done, we just don't know about it yet. It sometimes takes a few days for things to filter down, and the draft only finished a few days ago. Fry does have some leverage as a junior, but he was taken at pick 77 vs concensus 90's ranking or not top 100 on some lists and he's got TJ history. I just don't think he'll give up a $600-700k payday with all those dynamics at play. Agreed. I bet they had a very good idea he would sign for slot or below considering he was picked after two potentially tough signs in Rodon and Adams.
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Gah I can't believe Mariners paid Gareth Morgan 1.3 million over slot. That's insane considering he was projected to go around there anyway. How did he have so much leverage? Makes Adams signing for slot look like a complete steal. Some wacky overslot numbers going on in the 2nd round.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 04:05 PM) Most baseball players are not on a full ride scholarship. Schools get 11.7 scholarships for 30 players. The promise of a free ride is a huge bonus that vast majority of the players aren't getting. I would assume any high schooler that is being offered overslot to lure him out of a commitment would be on a full ride or close to it, but I admit I don't know how baseball breaks them up.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) Honestly, for a lot of the high school kids that get drafted, you almost have to think that a $200-300k guaranteed contract plus the guarantee of funding for a college education makes it worth it to sign. I think some kids overvalue the experience of college ball. I played division I college athletics and it was the high point of my "career," but I wasn't given the option of signing a pro contract. If a kid thinks he can have both, they gamble on their health for having it all.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) I am right there with you, thats what makes him resemble a young Mark Reynolds. He could bust out like Donaldson and Davis, but the probability on that is not great. The odds are he improves to the point where he is a guy that can hit .245 with 20 HR's a year. He still has a shot to be great, but it is less likely today than it ever before in his career. Yeah I don't know what peoples expectations are, but if he hits .240-250 and hits 20-30 homers, I consider that a success. That's probably right around league average and for the money, that's great value. I understand people dream bigger when it comes to your teams #1 prospect, but hey value is value and he wasn't acquired thinking he was a boom or bust guy.
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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 01:48 PM) And there's an outside chance the Sox sign Montes de Oca. I'll take the Sox strategy If we get sign Rodon, Adams, and Montes de Oca this draft would be a fantastic influx of talent that balanced risk and projection, IMO.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 01:19 PM) It looks like Sox went out to grab a 9 and a 10 in the first couple rounds, and then balanced it out with some 1's and 2's later, where the Cubs brought in a bunch of 6's. The kids they took round 4-6 were all highly rated, just fell to signability concerns. I've always been a BPA guy, but they could look smart by playing the system and spreading the wealth around. With that being said, I think they would of sprinted to the podium to take Rodon if he was available. Which means they almost had to have two different big boards based on how their 1st pick was going to play out.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 12:13 PM) I totally get that. You need to evaluate the players max potential, their current ability, and the likelihood that they meet that ceiling. Adams has a extremely high ceiling and there is no way to measure the floor or probability until he actual pitches as a pro. Davidson's ceiling might not even be everyday MLB player, I don't know how you can look at Davidson and say he has a chance to be much more than he is, there is very little projection left in him. Perhaps he is having eye issues like Olt was and needs to get that taken care of, but his 32% K rate (small sample) in the majors last season and his 33% K rate this season make it less likely he will ever be a league average 3B. Its quite possible that pitchers have learned how to pitch to him and he will have a hard time ever being more than he is now without some mechanical changes. Does Davidson have a chance to be a young Alex Rodriguez? No. But he just turned 23 and has consistently hit for power over his minor league career. His power numbers are on line or above his career averages and his BABIP is 60 points below his career average. I think you could plug him into the lineup next year and take the 20-25 homers and live with the .240 batting average. And who knows, some players make huge strides after a couple of major league seasons, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson for example. Davidson has the power and there has been no questions about his overall hit tool, I think he'll provide value for the Sox soon.
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I've been considering the Cubs strategy and I just have to laugh because it seemed to be the complete opposite from the White Sox. The Cubs went for three underslot guys in their first three picks, all are considered "safe" picks but not good value where they were selected. But that allowed them to take risky but very projectable high school talent in the following rounds, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease. The Sox seemed to go top heavy with their risky picks, Rodon at #3 overall, followed by Adams at #44. The next "risk" pick they had was Jake Jarvis, who seemed to have a pre-selection deal, since he signed almost immediately after being considered a tough sign. Thoughts? It will be interesting in a few years to see which strategy will work out better. If Schwarber and Stinnett reach the majors quickly and at least contribute and one of their lottery ticket high schoolers develop it could be a very nice draft for them.
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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 08:27 PM) Stupid Astros, why didn't they take Bryant #1 last year? Bryant seems to be one of the better hitting prospects in a long time. Yeah he's unbelievable right now.
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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 10, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) I would say at this point Adams ceiling is a lot higher than Davidsons. Adams has a TOR ceiling while Davidson is resembling many of the scouting reports that we read when he was acquired, a ton of power though maybe not enough contact to make it play at the ML level, so his ceiling has fallen a bit to where he just may be a Mark Reynolds clone. You also have to factor the likelihood of said prospect reaching that ceiling, or at least their floor. Davidson has an very good chance of being at least a league average 3B, Adams has an extremely small chance of being a #1 or #2 starter. Hell, he probably has a slim chance of even being a starter at the major league level period. Sure Adams may have a higher ceiling than Davidson, but you could say the same for any freak athlete kid who dabbles in baseball. Just because it's possible, doesn't mean its remotely probable. And I say all this with the caveat that I absolutely loved the Adams pick. Probably my favorite in the whole draft.
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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) Same question I asked in the draft thread: if the White Sox were genuinely confident of getting him signed, why not take him in the 11th round instead of the 14th? Seems to me it's more of a "well we'll take him here in the unlikely event we have enough to turn his head", rather than a genuine plan with a good chance of success. After the first ten rounds it really doesn't matter where you select someone because you aren't penalized for failing to sign them. In the 11th round there was only like 4-5 college kids selected. Not sure why Montes De Oca kept falling, guess people thought he was really unsignable and didn't want to waste a pick. I'm guessing the Sox grabbed college players (rounds 11-13) they were high on that others were passing on because they were going for high schoolers. After that, they decided to take a flier on him and see how the chips fall. It might pay off big time.
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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 02:22 PM) Dan Hayes @DanHayesCSN 2m Source said #WhiteSox have agreed in principle to sign 2nd-rd pick, RHP Spencer Adams, at slot. Suggested slot is $1.282 mill. LET'S GO!!! At slot is amazing. NICE! The at slot is the amazing part here, really frees up cash to sign Rodon/make a run at Montes de Oca.
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QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 01:26 PM) One more arm injury and he could also be looking at a signing bonus of about $5,000. I agree with you, but it may not be what he's thinking or what people are whispering into his ear.
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Sox Draft Carlos Rodon> Draft Day Discussion Thread
royoung replied to NorthSideSox72's topic in FutureSox Board
From the Baseball Prospectus chat with Nick Faleris... EthanSpalding (Glenview, Il): The White Sox signed Jake Jarvis, who was considered unsignable. Is he a legit prospect? Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I didn't see confirmation that he signed, but have heard it was happening. He is definitely a legit prospect. He was announced as an infielder but has a legit fallback on the mound, as well. Good 10th round get for the Sox. Froglegs Jones Jr. (Palos Park): Do you think it's realistic to expect the White Sox to sign both Carlos Rodon and Spencer Adams? Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I do; with Rodon being a better bet than Adams. Given their cap space, I see no reason why they wouldn't have room for both, and if Jarvis has in fact signed it's a good indication the Sox aren't worried about coming up with any extra money for their top two picks. In fact, drafting Jarvis in the first place was a pretty solid indication they think they are going to sign Adams and Rodon without issue. -
QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 01:24 PM) If we come in exactly at slot for the first 10 picks and are willing to pay the tax the Sox can offer him about $590,000 which would put him at about the middle of the third round in terms of bonus. That will be really tough for a guy who has already had Tommy John once to turn down. He would basically be having to bet that he actually stays healthy for the next 3 years and that he pitches well enough to get taken in the first two rounds. I bet we have to go overslot with Rodon and Adams, but we can go way underslot with a lot of the seniors they drafted too. If they could get three potential frontline SP pitching prospects signed (Rodon, Adams, Montes de Oca) gotta be happy.
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 9, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) I don't know how anyone could turn that down. Not many scouts would of batted an eye if he was selected in the 2nd round and those slot values ranged from 1 to 1.5 million. And that's him coming off of TJ surgery, if he preforms well in college he could be top 10 pick in the 2017 draft. It might be half a million dollars now, but it could be 2-4 million dollars in a couple years and the fun and excitement of college.
