Eminor3rd

QUOTE (SpankyEaton @ Nov 18, 2016 -> 09:02 AM) So my understanding of all of the new stats is limited since I just don't get it (WAR is wins above replacement...the replacement being who they replaced, or is it the next best average ball player? Help me out here if you can.) A "replacement player" refers to the production of, essentially, a typically available AAA replacement.

The word on Maitan is very strong. He's super young, but I think people think of him as a front-end talent. But yeah, if neither him nor Swanson is on the table, there isn't anything to talk about.

If nothing else, it seems like the Astros are expecting to make a big trade at some point. Reed, Bregman, and Colin Moran all need places to play. Hard to believe they signed Gurriel without the intent to give him a job.

I'll be Cashman.

I don't understand the outrage on this one. This is, at most, a slight snub.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 17, 2016 -> 10:41 AM) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...p;year=&t=b May was his bad month. Everything else, he was decent to pretty good Plus he was returning from a pretty serious injury, thus providing a pretty good excuse for a slow start.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Nov 17, 2016 -> 09:00 AM) Archer isn't as good as Sale No, but two extra years of control at no extra cost is substantial.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 16, 2016 -> 08:35 PM) Behahahahahahhaha - dude hit like 295 with an obp of 350 or something with around 20DRS and what 20 sb at a premium CF position. Yea... f*** that throw in. ????

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Nov 16, 2016 -> 01:46 PM) According to Jonah Birenbaum of The Score, a Red Sox deal involving Chris Sale would include Benintendi, Devers, and Kopech. https://twitter.com/Pete_BBS/status/798949568733966336 Is that a rumor source, or just a writer/jockey giving an opinion?

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 02:23 PM) Heyward had a lot more of a track-record and is more physically gifted, so I think people see him as a guy who could have even expanded from there. Eaton's track record is still good, just not the long span that Heyward had. Heyward has essentially 4 seasons of 6 WAR (a few just a bit above and one that I'm counting that was at 5.8). That is in his first six seasons. His last two entering free agency were a 6.2 and a 6.5 and was only going to be 26 during the first year of his contract. Eaton, to his own defense, has put up a 5.2 and a 6.2 in two of the last three years and even his down year was a 3.9. Case in point, not a ton of difference necessarily between the two, just one had a longer track record and a bigger reputation, but both are damn good players. I'd say that Eaton was far more underappreciated but part of that is Heyward was so hyped coming up, etc. If Adam were a free agent this year, he'd get a big contract ($100M plus for sure). You can see why teams would want him, but we also have years of control over him and I would hope intend to compete during the reign where he'd still be in his "prime" years. Either way, Adam Eaton is a good problem to have. Yeah, this ^. Way longer resume, and one that included a 20+ homer season. Also two years younger. And of course, the contract looks absolutely terrible one season later.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 12:10 PM) I believe if Adam Eaton were a free agent today, he would exceed the deal that either player got as a FA. You think Eaton gets >$150mm on the market today? I'm sorry, I just can't get there. I wish I had time to look up comps and dig deeper. Would be an interesting question to ask a FanGraphs guy to look into. I think he's more like $80mm in a normal year, maybe $100mm in a historically weak class like this. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 01:28 PM) Yes but he has been a top 10 WAR player for a year and a half, even when he was negative in CF. in 2015. He is signed so cheaply, and is controlled as long as guys who just completed their rookie seasons. If teams refuse to run on him and that hurts his WAR, that shows a problem with the WAR. Players not even attempting to take another base is a pretty valuable commodity to have in an OF. It is, indeed, probably the biggest drawback in the field of measuring defense -- the fact that the chances aren't equally distributed like at bats. But, yes, while holding runners from advancing is definitely valuable and definitely not accounted for, it is much less valuable than gunning them down. It isn't fair, but it's the truth. Eaton's team this year will enjoy the benefit of his reputation on runners, but it's very unlikely to get the "wins" he earned this year out of those throwouts. They just aren't likely to happen again. It's certainly POSSIBLE, but he's probably more of a 3-4 win guy going forward. And so I think that's what teams are seeing in his value. That's still valuable, mind you.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:57 AM) Seeing what Ellsbury and Crawford pulled down on the free agent market, I don't know that I agree with that. On the contrary, I think those examples actually help prove the point. Both of those guys got that money when they started hitting homers. The contract year's for each of those guys were 150 wRC+ and 132 wRC+ respectively. Eaton's recent big season came on the back of a 115 wRC+.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:49 AM) Yep. My post was supposed to be a response to the guy who suggested we get Seager back lol QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:53 AM) It's the same thing with the Mookie Betts trade "scenarios". Right. I know it hurts a lot of posters to hear it, but we all need to realize that Chris Sale is NOT the most valuable asset in the MLB, lol.

I love Eaton, but I don't think ANY team thinks he's a 6 win player going forward. The problem with deriving so much value from your arm is that people stop giving you the chance to throw them out. The problem with deriving so much value from rangey plays is that you don't always get the opportunity to make rangey plays. The defensive "production" is likely to regress, even if he plays exactly as well as he did this year. On top of that (and possibly partially because of that), players like Eaton tend to consistently command less on the trade/free agent market than everyone expects. I think most teams would love to have him, but I don't think he would return what most seem to be expecting. There's a good chance he's more valuable to the Sox on the field than he is as trade bait.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:42 AM) Honestly, if I were the Dodgers, I'd take Seager over Sale. If they dealt Seager, they would have no 2B, 3B, or SS. Every team in the majors would take Seager over Sale. He's a SS that just put up 7.5 fWAR and has 5 years of control remaining, lol.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 12:39 AM) I bet the Sox are asking for Seager, as they should be, and the Dodgers are countering with these lame Urias proposals everybody is pitching on here. Look, average major leaguers get traded for average major leaguers all the time, and good major leaguers get traded for good major leaguers all the time as well. Chris Sale is not only a superstar but a top superstar. I can understand the Dodgers being hesitant to start a deal with Seager, but that's because it's a fair place to start. This whole Urias is untouchable talk is utter nonsense. Urias is not a good enough get as the main piece. Not even close. Seager, more interesting for sure. Even he is a little bit too unproven. I know it's popular to underestimate the capabilities of the front office but this is CFS we're talking about. The franchise is going to get a historic ransom if a deal goes through. I don't think it will. Salary inflation has made it nearly impossible for the Sox to get fair value. lol

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 11:16 PM) Kinda curious to know what Frazier is adding in these deals Honestly, I'm hoping.guessing that his inclusion is what gets them to include Urias. Probably the Sox are asking for Urias, and the Dodgers are balking and offering everyone BUT him. Seems like a reasonable compromise to add Frazier (who is realistically worth a decent prospect and a couple flyers) in order to up the ante to Urias instead of De Leon.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 09:47 PM) I feel like Sale gets any prospect in baseball. Sox should identify the one prospect in baseball they want and build from there. Is Urias really the guy? I dunno if that wows me after watching him struggle against the cubs' weak lineup. He's the best pitching prospect in baseball.

Told you guys.

QUOTE (Username @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 12:28 PM) Bellinger looks like a stud, and they have 2 more top 100 position players plus some intriguing guys like Barnes or even Lux. In combination with De Leon or Urias I think there's plenty there to make it a great deal. This -- Bellinger is a legit stick from what I understand. Verdugo look like a solid regular at least. There's plenty there. I think this board is severely underrating Urias for some reason (easy top 3 prospect in all of baseball, arguably #1), and Bellinger has had some serious helium as of late (probably top 25).

QUOTE (Username @ Nov 10, 2016 -> 10:05 AM) This just happen or are you hoping it does? Hoping/predicting. Sorry for confusion.

Avisail Garcia non-tendered

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 06:52 PM) Him and Almora were the other two I was gonna flip with Happ and Soler Eloy Jimenez is light years better than all four of those guys. You'd start there and take whatever else you could get. Soler is definitely worth a gamble, but he's got to be a final throw-in type.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 01:50 PM) Well, we've already established that you're nuts Fair

From today's Dave Cameron chat: Interesting, (1) hadn't thought about the QO factor for Frazier, and (2) that Red Sox deal sounds like one I'd gladly take for Sale.