Eminor3rd

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 27, 2016 -> 09:40 AM) Do you even listen to what you just wrote because it's insane and nothing against you at all. You're trying to explain it to me and I greatly appreciate it. But what you just basically told me is a part time , injured catcher like Alex Avila ( all things being equal and in abstract ??? lost me there ) , I'd rather have him than Abreu ?? No , just no I wouldn't not even close. I mean WAR assigns each position on the field some kind of importance level right ? 1st base is at the bottom of the important positions where its crucial to have a very good defender, correct ?So how can being a bad 1st baseman hurt soooo much as to relegate Abreu to barely above league average as a player or is it barely above league average for a 1st baseman ? Because if its as a player how can you tell me with a straight face no less, all things being equal and in the abstract of course, that a platooned, injured, does nothing offensively but take walks, approx 150 AB's but good defensive catcher is worth more (?) than your full time ,2nd in RBI, 2nd in batting average , 2nd in doubles, 1st in OPS, approx 520 AB but bad defense 1st basemen ? I mean you do understand what I am saying right ? People assign money values to these WAR numbers right ? $7/8M per 1 WAR is standard now right ? Would you pay a part time catcher who gets 25-30% of the AB's of Abreu and offensively does nothing but take walks more than Abreu ? Would you be OK with just letting Abreu walk after this year like we all will be with letting Avila walk ? I don't ask all these silly questions to put you on the spot. I'm just really really trying to understand these WAR evaluations. I don't want to be a dinosaur and it's not as easy as understanding the traditional baseball stats. All of a sudden a light hitting defensive whiz like Heyward gets a huge contract based on these evaluations now and even at the age he got the contract his defensive whizardry wouldn't really last all that long,3 /4 years tops and he'll be mostly considered a middle of the pack RF once he losses some range. The thing is, I could never understand the Heyward hype that led to a contract like that from a traditionalists view. Traditionally offense has always been worth more and probably much more than defense.Good offense can probably be maintained for a longer period of time. Good offense puts you in the Hall of Fame . Does anyone think Heyward is a future HOF guy ? Yet he is given a HOF contract. Smething is wrong or agents are behind the creation of WAR . I say that jokingly of course but come on now something is way out of whack here. You're forgetting about positional adjustment, for one. Fangraphs lumps that in with defense, which leads a lot of people to be confused. You're not comparing Abreu's hitting versus Navarro's hitting -- you're comparing Abreu's value as it relates to other first baseman against Navarro's value as it relates to other catchers. Also, the "WAR is a counting stat" thing is critical. No, you wouldn't rather have Navarro than Abreu because Navarro has more WAR this year any more than you'd rather have Frazier than Donaldson because Frazier has more homeruns this year. But even that doesn't mean Navarro can't have been more valuable than Abreu over the course of a few months. Drawing sweeping conclusions from partial season counting-stat data is dumb and wrong regardless of which stats you use. If you're going to do that, it isn't the stats' fault. Forget about the dollar-value thing. People misuse that CONSTANTLY. All it was ever supposed to do is form a baseline for a specific year's market values during free agency. It was NEVER, expressly nor implied, supposed to be able to actually put a dollar value on a win for a team. There are WAY too many constantly changing variables (unique to each team and season) to be able to do that. But people constantly reference market norms for $/WAR from like 2012 to try to decide whether or not a slumping player is worth his contract going forward and other ridiculous stuff. Even professional writers do it, and it's sad.

Jesus

The "great stuff funky delivery don't care" thing worked great with Sale but... well, they can't all be zingers.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 11, 2016 -> 09:34 AM) ...what if Justin Morneau IS his son? #mindblown

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Aug 10, 2016 -> 06:09 PM) Why not? He's an average player and Saladino's just as good. Lawrie is a rent himself. Trade from excess. Even the disappointing version of Lawrie hits significantly better than Saladino.

This is a guy who simply may not be worth the baggage.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Aug 10, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Of course it was. The discussion is concerning Robertsons performance vs value. You switched it up completely and brought up an entirely different issue involving Sale and the torn up uni's and missing a couple of starts. This is hilarious. You guys are pretty forgiving when it comes to someone else not getting value for their $$$. My guess is that if it was coming out of your pocket, or you were somehow accountable, you'd be taking a walk over to the dark side with all the irrational ranters, whiners, moaners and chronically unsatisfied Do you join hands and sing "Kumbaya" when you take your car in for a $5 k engine rebuild, and you break down not 20 minutes out of the shop, in rush hour on the Kennedy, bumper to bumper, in 95 degree temps? Are you seriously evaluating a reliever's performance based on the amount of "pitcher wins" he adds or subtracts to from Chris Sale's total? Because that would be total nonsense, and Quinarvy's post is simply stating that.

Carlos Gomez:

QUOTE (FT35 @ Aug 8, 2016 -> 08:12 AM) Soooooo....lemme get this straight...we need LaRoche's son to be gone...but now we need Abreu's son to be here all the time!? Maybe he's the missing leader on this team now that Drake is gone!? What a circus! Do other teams go through what we go through!?!?!??!?! Um, no?

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 03:43 PM) Is Tim Anderson ok? X-ray negative.

That might have been the best throw of Saltalamacchia's entire career.

QUOTE (chisoxt @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 12:50 PM) I agree. Also, why doesn't Navarez get more playing time? Frankly, in limited play, he looks better than Navarro. Is this another manifestation of Robin's stubbornness? This late in the season, I imagine it has something to do with the pitchers being comfortable with Navarro.

Wtf is wrong with Hawk? He's like not paying attention or something.

QUOTE (shakes @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 09:59 AM) Well, Abreu's trend unfortunately is very far from his 5.3 war his rookie year, which was nearly cut in half last year and it's hard to guarantee a bounce back, he hasn't shown the ability to adjust to the adjustments the league is making to him. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/6/6/11863...e-sox-struggles As far as Frazier goes, his WAR is being dragged down by his defense which fluctuates year to year, and generally doesn't get better as you age. His offensive numbers are down, while his OPS+, wOBA, WRC+, are all lower than career averages, but they are not career worst and are not far below his career averages. His BB% and ISO are actually career highs, as is his K%. It is a career low for BABIP, which gives you some hope, but the rest of the numbers don't tell me he's just automatically jumping back to a 4.5+ WAR player. It looks to me like another guy the Sox acquired who is having a more difficult than normal time switching leagues. For Rodon, I hope he continues to grow as a pitcher, but for now he needs to continue his growth and actually reach a 3+ WAR season before I just count it as automatic. I just really don't believe any of those changes should be the plan to get back into contention. They're certainly not enough, you're right. But it's halfway, I think, which is close enough to want to go into the winter with your options open. I mean, if I found out that there were good offers on the table for all the guys they might have moved yesterday, I wouldn't be taking this position. And maybe that "chain of command problem" tweet is evidence that's the case. But if we can assume that Hahn didn't get great offers, I think it's easy to see why he didn't pull any triggers. That's really all I'm trying to say. That we have no significant pending free agents makes it a different situation than usual.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 09:42 AM) This isn't really meant to be a rebuttal to your argument, per se, but isn't it a bit funny how we always seem to be waiting on 2-3 guys to "play like they are capable of playing"? It's almost as if it should be expected for a couple guys to under perform on a year to year basis and having no backup plan for them not meeting expectations is a recipe for failure. For sure. Like I said, I hate this year, too. It sucks. And I think it makes sense to question the FO at this point on its ability to scout and coach.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 09:30 AM) This is an awesome post and sum up my feelings nicely. We are usually pretty lockstep though so I'm not surprised. The White Sox will be heading to the Winter Meetings with the 2 best pitchers available (Sale, Q) and will have Frazier, Lawrie, Melky, and Gonzalez as free agents. The White Sox will be a trading post. But what if they take one more run at it? What if they try to sign Adam Lind to a 1-2 year deal to DH. What if they find a way to acquire Puig somehow? That doesn't stop you from selling of Frazier, Melky etc at the deadline if it fails again. IT also doesn't stop you from getting a similar package to what is being offered right now for Sale and Q. As much as people would hate this strategy, if you are Rick Hahn, I understand taking one more shot. It requires cash though and it also requires not giving up any more draft picks. This offseason will be extremely interesting one way or another. And that's an important point I forget to mention -- they may STILL opt to rebuild. None of their desirable pieces are pending free agents. Maybe they didn't like the offers they were getting, but they have another chance and more teams to sell to this winter.

QUOTE (shakes @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 09:09 AM) I'm sorry, but this is living in absolute fantasyland. This is the same rationalizing we see every year that has lead to the White Sox being 62 games under .500 the last three seasons, with another season headed down that same path. And frankly, the positive regressions you highlight do not nearly make up the difference for the Sox making the playoffs. And that is ignoring the fact that this is likely the player Frazier is, he isn't doing anything that is really outside his career norms, and Sale, Q, Eaton, Melky, Jones are all healthy and have years towards the high end of their career production, and it is very unlikely we see the recent contributions Gonzalez and Sheilds are giving the Sox. As far as Rodon goes, well the book is absolutely out on him, but the rushed promotions do not seem to be helping him and so far Fulmer is looking like he needs more development to even contribute as a reliable bullpen arm. Which brings up another argument against contention, the Sox just traded their second most reliable bullpen arm for what is widely considered a 4th outfielder who will be thrust immediately into a starting role. All of this is complicated by the fact that every team has injuries and regressions and the Sox have a farm system that produces no depth and ready made replacements which is a big reason the team fades down the stretch every year, and is falling into that patter yet again. Believing the Sox will enter the big boy market and sell assets, who are worth less this time next year, and spend wildly back into contention because the money will be off the books is just ignoring everything about their history and how they operate. Their is no defensible position for contention next year. The Sox are closer to the Reds than they are the Red Sox as an organization. Their really is nothing they do well at this point top to bottom. I can't think of a single thing. They have developed two star pitchers in the last six years and appear content to just throw away their primes. This is a real nadir as a Sox fan. You said "nuh-uh" to a lot of what I posted, but you haven't provided any evidence to the contrary. For example, I'm not sure how you look at Frazier's stat line and come to the conclusion that he isn't far off from his norms. It just isn't true -- K rate is up, BABIP is way down, defense is way down, etc. The differences, purely in terms of WAR, between recent Abreu and Frazier seasons and what they're likely to finish with this year amount to something like 6 wins. If you projected Rodon to come it at three wins this year (safe), you're talking about a 9 win swing. That would absolutely put the Sox in contention. You're welcome to hold your opinion, but you haven't shown anything to support it. I understand the sense of dread (I feel it too), and you may be right that the organization is incompetent in terms of player development, but neither of those two things support the idea that their deadline strategy is indefensible. I'm not trying to defend the org, I'm just trying to explain the actions.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Aug 1, 2016 -> 03:46 PM) Not surprising, more confusing. They can make a decision that goes against the collective vision of the fanbase but what exactly is thier vision? Because I have no idea. Good luck trying to turn around a perpetually .500 team with zero minor league or financial resources without selling off ML assets. I'm f***ing bored. I'm bored too -- I get it, I really do. But if you take a step back and look at the situation and the options, the roster is built to push through 2017. I have no doubt that Hahn considered changing that course after his "mired in mediocrity" statement, but I have to assume that teams were not willing to pay up. Rather than make a bad deal simply for the sake of changing something, there's an argument to be made to let things play out. I'm sure he could have moved some relievers and role players, but if the returns aren't meaningful, there's value in retaining the flexibility of competing in 2017 into this offseason, where I have no doubt that he'll try to see what he can get out of Sale/Quintana again. For those asking "what can possibly be done to improve the team's chances in 2017," it starts with Abreu being Abreu, Frazier being Frazier, and Rodon finally turning into Rodon. Those guys have been bad, but there doesn't appear to be any physical reason, and the reality is just that sometimes guys have bad years. Remember when David Ortiz was cooked? Remember when Carlos Beltran was useless? Remember when it was ridiculous to acquire John Lackey? There are a ton of examples of teams giving up on good players only to see them flourish later, often elsewhere. We're all real good at coming up with convenient ad hoc explanations like "toxic clubhouse" or "new training program" or "obvious contract year effort" and other unsubstantiated, random crap, but when we do that, we're ignoring the fact that baseball is a competition where two really good players are doing everything they can to stop the other from succeeding, and no matter how much talent there is, one of them ALWAYS has to lose. Team sports aren't just coming in and pushing buttons -- sometimes you simply get beat. If any those players simply did what was reasonably expected, we'd probably be a couple games over .500. If ALL of them simply did what they were reasonably expected, we'd be in the thick of the playoff hunt. Is the consistent disappointment of the team a systemic problem of the organization? Maybe. But if you're Rick Hahn, you're not going to fire yourself. You're going to do what ALL of us do every day: you're going to assume you're capable of doing your job, and make the best decision you can given the hand in front of you. It's totally fair to be disappointed and upset -- I am too. But the decision to hold onto controllable assets into this offseason is absolutely a defensible decision, even if it's boring and feels bad. It very well may turn out to be the wrong one (assuming the offers on the table were what we think), and you certainly DON'T have to like it or agree with it, but it's a far cry from obvious incompetence. In case anyone doesn't know about it, this is an awesome resource for when you want to start taking stock of the offseason: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GZ9...pub?output=html Note the contracts that come off the books after next season: Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Gonzalez. If we fail next year, all those guys will be hot deadline chips. Shields and Robertson will each have ~1.5yr/~$15m remaining, and will also be good chips if they're pitching well. Jones and Jennings will still have multiple years of control remaining. Sale and Quintana will be essentially JUST as valuable, but the team will be in a clearer position to sell. And that's IF we fail. Those aforementioned bouncebacks could get us most of the way to contention, and I'm assuming Avisail Garcia will FINALLY be non-tendered, so we may just have a shot. The offseason shopping list is clear and achievable: catcher, first base/DH, corner OF.

How many of these threads do we need?

I feel like I'm experiencing an alternate reality or something. You guys are acting like this team is 20 games under .500 and has a bunch of pending free agents. Again, I understand the opinion that the team should rebuild, but I don't understand why everyone is acting like it's unbelievable that they aren't selling. It's very believable. They didn't "blow" anything, they just made a different decision than you wanted.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 1, 2016 -> 02:01 PM) Mired in front office incompetence. Why is David Robertson still on the roster?? Why are Miguel Gonzalez, James Shields, Melky, etc. still on the roster?? Because ALL of those players are still under contract for next year.

I don't understand the bafflement. I get that you guys think they should blow it up, but why are you shocked that they aren't? They're a .500 team with all of their core players controlled next year. They just decided to keep trying to build and win. I'm not saying it's the RIGHT decision, but it's not a confusing one either.

QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Aug 1, 2016 -> 11:10 AM) Moncada and Benintiendi are prospects, not proven ML talent. And I don't think that those two plus an average prospect or a mediocre bullpen arm are enough for 3+ years of a bornerline-HOF pitcher with a ridiculously cheap contract. I'm not arguing with your opinion of his value, I'm just telling you there's no way that deal ever happens. I'm just trying to set expectations.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2016 -> 11:08 AM) I think it makes total sense. It's $63 million added to the cost of acquiring Chris Sale. It isn't though -- the "value" assigned to Moncada today doesn't have anything to do with the cost of acquiring him in the past. The Red Sox either made a good buy or a bad buy, but regardless, what they have TODAY is today's version of Moncada. It's a common stock market fallacy to think like you're suggesting. If you bought $1,000 of stock yesterday, it diminished to $500 in value today, you shouldn't balk at a chance to sell it for $600 simply because you had $1000 into it.

Also, DD "caving" is NOT going to include Moncada/Benintendi AND Devers/Kopech. If Hahn somehow talks him into the first two being included, anything else is gonna be light.