Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 27, 2016 -> 01:58 PM) Hope it goes to Eaton, predict it goes to Betts. Same.

poop

QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 25, 2016 -> 12:20 AM) The stadium is located in a terrible part of town and lacks originality. Build a stadium (from their own pockets) on the Lake with the Skyline featured as well and I will bet anything attendance BOOMS. Oh, is that all? Should be a simple change, lol.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 21, 2016 -> 09:24 PM) And thanks for this. Very cool. No prob. Saw it on Reddit.

Some improv: https://streamable.com/weie

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 09:26 PM) He could get hurt this year and never play again. Is it really worth risking $25M to MAYBE make an extra $2M next year? I wouldn't think so. It would make a lot more sense to opt out after next year. Maybe. Hard to tell how a guy views money after he already has ~$30m or so. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd make $3-4m extra this year, and getting that extra trip in means a lot more in the sixth year. I hope FanGraphs does an article on it -- they always have a really good arb estimator model.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 12:49 PM) Abreu would be a fool to opt into arbitration right now. He would barely make more money, if any at all, in 2017 and would risk losing the guaranteed money he has coming in 2018 and 2019. Really? You think he's a likely non-tender candidate over the next three years? Also, he's all but guaranteed a raise -- the arbiters don't look at total value, they look at how much of a RAISE the guy has earned. Dingers and ribbies have shown to be chief there.

QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 01:26 PM) I've seen a lot of discussion about Sale and/or Quintana being dealt as well as the usual suspects like Frazier, Melky, Robertson, Jones, ext but I think the biggest no brainer who should be moved is Jose Abreu. He obviously is a talented hitter and a very good middle of the order bat, but to me I view a potential return of what he would bring as more valuable than him playing out his contract on the South Side AND his value will never be higher. Yes he will be 30 next year, but his contract still runs for another 3 years at a VERY affordable price for any MLB team. I think the team that makes the most sense would be the Nationals. Their window is open for 2 more years until Harper probably leaves and Scherzer ages. Their offense again let them down in the playoffs and they have a major hole at 1B. Why not trade them a package of Abreu and Nate Jones (who also possesses enormous value given his contract) for Giolito and say Victor Robles among others? His value is probably not as high as you think. While he remains a productive hitter, Abreu just ranked 11th among first baseman in wRC+ and just 14th in fWAR. Further, he is about to opt into his first of three arbitration seasons, and his raise will be beginning from a base of about $13m per year. Given that his cumulative RBI and homerun totals (which tend to be the types of numbers that drive arb prices up) overrate his overall production, he's going to be making close to his actual market value very quickly. If he produces like he did this season going forward, in fact, he may even be at market value on opening day of 2017. That doesn't mean we should dump him or anything, but it means that the return may not be worth much (if any) more than what we get by keeping him around. Plus, by all accounts, Abreu seems to be one of the only calm and stabilizing leadership personalities in the clubhouse, so his value to the White Sox may very well be more than it is to another contender.

I still think the most likely path the Sox take is to try to add in the offseason for one last hurrah, and then aggressively dismantle the whole thing at the trade deadline when it fails. I think this because the 2017-18 offseason is the first one where there looks to be absolutely no argument for contention, barring the unforeseeable arrival of new breakout stars.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 18, 2016 -> 07:01 AM) The problem with wanting both Benintendi AND Moncada is A. Boston wouldn't do that This is really the key piece of information.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 02:33 PM) I think it's a track record thing. He has about 800 ABs over the last 2 seasons now of about an .834 OPS though, so I don't think he's all that overrated. Major downsides of a JBJ trade are control and age. I can get behind the control thing, it just seems like people think he's a bad player. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 17, 2016 -> 03:00 PM) He fell off offensively this year. We know what we're getting defensively, but his offense is still a question mark. He didn't, though. He went from a .355 wOBA to a .354. His K rate actually dropped significantly while his walk rate stayed essentially the same. His average and OBP rose. If anything, he provided evidence that his strong half season in 2015 wasn't a fluke.

Why does everyone think JBJ is overrated?

Guys. I'm just afraid these threads are setting us all up for disappointment.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 10:16 AM) And I am telling them to go pound sand. Not for that offer above you wouldn't. Moncada AND Benintendi AND Kopech AND more?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Oct 12, 2016 -> 10:33 AM) My concern is that I'd take pretty much all the proposed packages in this thread without thinking twice, which makes me think Boston wouldn't do it. I think it would cap at something like Benintendi/Devers/Kopech/Swihart. I agree, that would be the absolute best-case scenario. Honestly, it's probably even swapping Benintendi for Moncada now that the former has clearly jumped ahead.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:45 PM) Question: in a 1 for 1, Sale for Betts, who says no? Hahn or Dombrowski? Dombrowski, unquestionably.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) Brady is really only contributing at most 40% of the time, unless he has taken up kicking and started playing safety while he was suspended. A guy like Gronk is lucky to contribute 25% of the time given personnel packages, but when he does, his team benefits greatly. Yeah, I thought it would be a simpler argument if I only included "times when possible to contribute," but that knife cuts both ways. The pitcher, of course, doesn't contribute on offense and also doesn't account for the plays his defenders make. So if Brady goes from 90% to 40%, the ace goes from 25% to 10%.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 02:09 PM) Strongly disagree. Hitting ahead of or behind other great hitters absolutely has an impact on one's performance. If JBJ is surrounded by a bunch of guys like JB Shuck (obv. extreme to make the point), you think he sees as many good pitches to hit as when he's surrounded by the Red Sox offense? Also, there are guys that just don't perform leading off or hitting at the top of the order and excel while batting in the lower part of the order. This is a similar effect to some relievers that are awesome at mid relief/setup but can't close. The mental aspect of baseball is a thing and devalued more and more in this new age of statistical analysis. Can't say much about the idea of the "mental aspect," but it's been proven time and time again that hitters aren't pitched significantly differently with or without "lineup protection." The only statistically significant difference is found for 8th hitters that hit before pitchers.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 10:26 AM) In baseball you can lose playoff games in football you cannot. I think the comparison would be Brady playing the first three quarters of the super bowl or playoff game. It's not though -- that's what makes it non-intuitive, but it's important. You have to think about it as the percentage of time that the player is contributing. Brady contributes to the Patriots 80-90% of the time the team is on the field, and the rest is most garbage time. An ace contributes 20-25% of the time in the season, and maybe 30% during the season.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:29 AM) I mean, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck, but I'll take your anecdotal evidence into consideration. The point he's making is that luck is only one factor of BABIP.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 05:40 AM) In further researching this question, I can't seem to find the answer. WAR is calculated over an entire season. If a pitcher only appears in approximately 20% of the games, yet is able to produce the same wins over replacement as a position player, that would seem to indicate that he is much more valuable, in any given single game. That is consistent with everything else, which we know about the game, i.e.; "pitching is 80% of the game" and "Good pitching will always stop good hitting". Therefore, as I said in my previous post; A starter like Sale is much more valuable and critical, in a single post season game, than a player like Jackie Bradley Jr., even though they have approximately the same WAR. Could someone please clarify this for me? You're correct that a starter (typically) has more impact than a position player in a single game, but that's not what they were arguing about. One guy said "Sale is worth way more than JBJ," and another guy said "actually their value is closer than you think," which (at least in 2016) is a true statement.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 11, 2016 -> 08:48 AM) A great pitcher can completely dominate a game like a great QB can dominate a game. They both can carry their teams. s*** just look at that Royals Giants World Series with MadBum. Yes, and MadBum pitched in 2.5 of the 7 games. He pitched 21 of the 63 innings. Despite a historic performance and atypical overuse due to desperation, Bumgarner was only involved in one-third of the innings in that series. That would be like if Tom Brady could on play in the first quarter and a half of the Super Bowl. And when you think about the rest of the year, it's even less. Bumgarner made 33 starts in 2014, which is 20% of the teams 162 games. What if Tom Brady only played in 3.25 games every season? It just doesn't add up. It's no knock on MadBum or Chris Sale, it's just a fact that we fans have to accept. As sexy as an ace is, one player simply cannot dominate in baseball the way a QB or NBA star can, and that informs the prices that teams are going to pay.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 08:48 PM) Tell that to Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs Now if only he could play every day, you might have a argument.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) Chris Sale's value due to his contract is the equivalent to a franchise QB on a cheap deal in the NFL. This is not true. Even Trout isn't worth a franchise QB. Baseball players simply do not have the same degree of impact individually.

Flowers blows. Navarro/Avila didn't work out, but if we were trying to compete, it was worth rolling the dice.