Eminor3rd

Look at our lineup right now. Look at the ZiPS projections article on FanGraphs. Assess and formulate where you think our team is. Think about our competition. Think about how Avisail's projected 0 WAR fits into the plan. Now tell me: Would you rather have Dexter Fowler in that lineup, or would you rather have an extra draft pick after the first round during the draft this year?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:42 AM) A month ago I was 100% confident Avi wasn't going to be the starting RF in 2016, but that confidence is eroding more and more every day. And that's with one of most favorable OF markets you're ever going to see. Same -- it just made TOO much sense.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:36 AM) It's time I change my signature lol At this point, I'd just roll with it if I were you. Might as well keep hope alive. Plus, it'll become ironic and funny at some point.

I'm getting anxious. I'm afraid we are not going to get anyone. I can't deal with another Avi season.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:43 AM) Some interesting choices there. Lots of FS videos and links to other FS content too - I'd say probably half the media links they use in total are from FS. Kind of surprised he didn't just reach out to us. In fact there are places in there where I get the feeling he may have just been reading our prospect profiles and re-stating some things. Maybe not though, it's hard to say that sort of thing because much of people's views on players will end up overlapping. Oh, I just assumed he DID reach out.

Farnsworth often comes up with rankings that deviate from status quo: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/ 1. Spencer Adams 2. Tim Anderson 3. Carson Fulmer 4. Adam Engel 5. Jordan Guerrero 6. Tyler Danish 7. Jacob May 8. Chris Beck 9. Corey Zangari 10. Trey Michalczewski 11. Eddy Alvarez 12. Jhoandro Alfaro 13. Jordan Stephens 14. Courtney Hawkins 15. Brian Clark 16. Jason Coats 17. Brandon Brennan 18. Micker Adolfo 19. Jake Peter 20. Andre Wheeler 21. Jace Fry 22. Robin Leyer 23. Thad Lowry Mentions: Danny Dopico, Johan Cruz, Amado Nunez, Nick Delmonico, Matt Davidson, Keon Barnum, Nolan Sanburn, Luis Martinez, Blake Hickman, David Trexler, Zach Thompson, Michael Ynoa. EDIT: Also, tons of FutureSox video featured!

I didn't want Fowler, but I'm not going to be upset if we sign him. If he has a typical season, he improves the team by two to three wins.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) Sometimes you take the good with the bad. Like Abreu. His defense isn't stellar. His point is that all of those guys are elite defenders.

Here's the thing about Desmond: if he didn't have warts, he wouldn't be available to us at all. The play on Desmond is that he's been a star player for a LOT longer than he's been a scrub since his breakout -- you pick him up hoping that his most recent crap-stretch was temporary and conveniently located right before he became a free agent. If you have reason to believe he's cooked, you leave him alone. but I don't think any of US have evidence to suggest either outcome is more likely. He have to trust (hope) that if the Sox get him, it's because they're evaluations say he's alright. But either way, we're not talking about paying him the $100m he'd have already secured if he just put up another 4-win season. His recent performance and draft pick compensation will be baked into the price he can command.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 06:38 PM) Scott Merkin trying to ring that they are potentially done bell again with his latest article. Also thinks that Garcia is going to surpass his projected WAR next year. ...of zero.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 04:41 PM) catcher position projected to be 3 WAR here https://twitter.com/cistulli/status/692087588992057344 That would be a boon, no doubt.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:38 PM) [/b] He averages about 2 WAR per year. I'd say that's a little better than average. He's just about to turn 30, too. He still has some good years left, plus the eye test tells me he's a bit better defensively than broken defensive metrics. Seconding shysocks -- 2 WAR is indeed precisely league average. It's easy to confuse "average" with "replacement level." You do have a point though, in that it is a mistake to assumethat an "average" player doesn't hold substantial value. MLB teams give just as much playing time to "below average" players as they do to "above average" ones.

The pick is just another part of the cost. Its loss will be reflected in the contract terms.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 11:17 AM) I really think people are overrating the Tigers. Even with Upton I don't see them as much more than an 81-84 win team right now. Neither are we, though. Having another team in the division that's equally as good is a substantial obstacle.

QUOTE (dasox24 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 02:30 PM) Great stuff. Very well done. QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:30 PM) BTW, that was a really good read, eminor. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:39 PM) Agree with everyone else, well done Eminor. You provided some very good insight to the potential upgrades as well as downgrades. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:20 PM) Very comprehensive piece. Love how you pointed out how the defensive values are so weird and drawing too many conclusions about them is subjective. You didn't just pick a side you took the time to point out every angle. Very well written also . Must have proof read it thoroughly. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 10:17 AM) Agree 100%. Excellent analysis. QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 11:23 AM) Great article! I wish more people would learn to write baseball articles with a clear depiction of the logic and thought process that goes toward the conclusions drawn. Well done. Thanks!

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:40 AM) I don't know if the prices were all that reasonable. Cespedes you would probably have to guarantee over $30 million and risk losing him for 1 season. Gordon wasn't leaving KC, and Upton, a guy I wanted, was signed by a team where money is no obstacle. If the Sox offered him 6 years $150 million, you don't really think Illich would have topped that? You may be right about being ultimately outbid on Upton, but I'd at least liked to have seen Illitch end up paying a price I WASN'T comfortable with. The fact that the "winning bid" was so reasonable just indicates that Sox weren't willing to submit a reasonable bid anyway. That's really the same way I feel about Gordon, too. He may have taken less to go to KC, but it seems unlikely he would have taken, say, $25-30m less. 5/100 would have been risky, but understandable and in-line with typical FA valuation. And yeah, Cespedes was always going to choose the Mets at those terms (3 year + opt out), but the fact that we spent all season dicking around with the three-year deal garbage is the only reason the Mets were even an option at the end. I think your point is that there were more factors at play than just money, and that some of these deals are more expensive than they look at first glance -- and I agree. But the fact remains that none of these teams needed a corner OF as badly as the White Sox*, and they all ended up with good options at solid prices. I think the Sox should have been more aggressive when the market was flush with supply, because that's when they actually had leverage. That way, they would have been the ones with the "deal to beat" as the agents scrambled to find other bidders late. With a reasonable bid on the table, other teams wouldn't have had the opening to "get creative" in the first place. We could have made the 5/110-ish offer to Cespedes before the Nationals even emerged, we could have made Illitch pay $160m instead of $130m, and showing Gordon a nine-figure offer might have been enough to fill our hole whilst also creating a big problem in KC's OF, which might have been enough to justify the slight overpay. EDIT: *Actually, the Royals totally did.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 09:32 AM) Gotcha. And Sale is a HUGE value... I'm not saying he's not. In terms of WAR $, he was +$43M last year. That's insane. My point was really about the Cubs swallowing their pride on guys like Schwarber and Soler and Baez.... I'd give em all up for Gray at minimum wage this year, and 4 years of team control. Anyways, back to the topic - I agree with others that I think I'd rather see Hahn explore trade options rather than sign Fowler. His OBP is nice, but the pick and his defense just don't justify the cost for me. If we're willing to continue to be lackluster in defense in the outfield, then I want to see a big power bat. Yeah -- all three of those players have very loud flaws. I think the Cubs know it, but honestly I think the reason a deal hasn't been done is that other teams know it, too. I think they've been trying to sell Baez as a premium prospect for years, while the rest of the league sees his value as the median of the superstar outcome and the complete failure outcome. RE: OF -- It's just going to be difficult to excuse the front office if they fail to SOMEHOW make a substantial upgrade over Avi. I think whiffing on all of those free agents was a huge mistake, because that represented several of the most effective options by far, and the prices were downright reasonable. I don't love Fowler either. Jackson is really more of a bounceback candidate than anything. The system is still weak enough that a major trade is going to have real implications on near-term depth, even if Hahn pulls another Frazier/Samardzija-style deal out of his ass. I don't know, I just don't feel great about the remaining options overall.

That Keon Barnum pick is looking so bad.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 03:17 AM) What are the A's gonna pay Gray this year? What are the Sox gonna pay Sale? I said VALUE...not better, necessarily. The ole "bang for the buck". Sale '16 - $9.1M Gray - '16 - (Arb process - $512,000 base) Gray is SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE it's not even funny. I was referring to the bolded portion of the post above, not the discussion at large. I should have bolded it before.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 03:17 AM) What are the A's gonna pay Gray this year? What are the Sox gonna pay Sale? I said VALUE...not better, necessarily. The ole "bang for the buck". Sale '16 - $9.1M Gray - '16 - (Arb process - $512,000 base) Gray is SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE it's not even funny. You're completely wrong. Literally every team in baseball would add Sale at ~$10m/year, even if their budget was maxed. If Sale was making $25m or something, then we're talking. Furthermore, when you start to add up the monetary value of the control years, the cash gap shrinks even more. Sale has just over $48m left over four years, $27.5m of which is on two team options. Gray's arb payout (assuming he stays healthy and productive) will probably end up paying him $25-30m (conservatively given continued salary inflation), making the total gap likely ~$5m per year over the lives of the contracts.

Definitely, as we currently have Avisail Garcia.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 11:07 AM) That is really nice work. I know as people have mused about the off season we always hear about the improvements at 2nd and 3rd, but Catcher has been kind of lost in that. I wonder how this translates to fWAR? 2 or 3 more wins from that group when added to the pluses from Frazier and Lawrie would put us somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 fWAR on paper. QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 11:13 AM) Great analysis and break down per usual, eminor. Thanks guys!

I'm out on Cespedes. I'm over it. Got frustrated because I wanted Gordon and Upton, but there's no point in overpaying this dude.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 21, 2016 -> 09:51 AM) Sox games started at 3B according to BBreference. Saladino 53 Gillaspie 50 Beckham 39 Olt 20 Meh, Gillaspie = Olt too. "Olt" isn't a player -- "Olt" is an archetype

QUOTE (Saufley @ Jan 21, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) I hate to rain on anyone's parade but, what will this board be like if the Sox don't sign Cespedes and aren't able to sign one or two of the second tier players? If Avisail Garcia is the RF on Opening Day (and it isn't because of a ST injury), it will be tremendous failure for the Sox. I'm not just saying that from an Avi-hater perspective -- the market was absolutely flush to make an upgrade and the bidders were relatively few.