Eminor3rd

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 09:33 AM) $9M is never going to make much of a difference so that's kind of an unfair question, but just because you're more than nine million dollars away from competing doesn't mean it can't be spent wisely. Why not give it to Juan Uribe? At his age I can't see it costing much more - if any - than that, even though he's still posting good numbers. You get a player who can take most of the games at third and, if pushed, can probably still play around the diamond. He'll leave room for whatever youth we might have in mind. I know people are probably wary of bringing in journeymen because of how it's gone with Bonifacio, but for every 2015 Bonifacio there's a 2014 Bonifacio. A lot depends on the direction the team wants to go and if it's really locked into this 3-year plan that Kenny just invented. At this point, is Juan Uribe less of an age-related risk than Alexei Ramirez? And if $9m doesn't make much of a difference, why can't we have both? If I thought what we're seeing from Alexei was his true-talent now, I wouldn't argue to keep him. But I'm also not saying that he's going to get back to his prime numbers. But there are a confluence of factors here: 1) There is evidence that suggests that he will produce MORE going forward than he has this year. 2) There is NOT evidence to suggest that our internal replacement candidates will produce more than Alexei going forward. 3) $9m is still a relative pittance to pay for a decent veteran stopgap SS 4) The $9m spent doesn't appear likely to preclude us from making any of the other potential veteran stopgap signings (like Uribe) that look likely based on the FA class. Now, if $9m turns out to be the difference between getting Weiters or not, this calculus may change. But I'm guessing that a lot of your will agree with me that Weiters at Boras rates in a weak positional FA class may be way too big of a risk anyway. I wanted to trade Alexei over the offseason because (a) he was at peak value, (b) I thought Leury Garcia or Carlos Sanchez could fill the gap reasonably well, and © I thought the team was another year away from starting to make a run at the WC. Now, 8 months later, ALL of that has changed. Alexei's value has never been lower, Sanchez/Garcia have failed to produce, and RH's plan is clearly to compete immediately. Based on that plan, I just don't think we have a better option than giving Alexei a chance to bounce back.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 09:52 PM) Last offseason, I was firmly of the view that Brian Anderson espouses here -- you can't trade Alexei, because it opens up a NEW hole that you then have to fill. Fill the holes you have -- Alexei isn't one of them. Now, I'm not so sure. If you look at his numbers over the last 4 years -- http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramiral03.shtml -- what it looks like is a guy on a pretty steady decline with one good year thrown in -- 2014. Take out 2014, and you have HRs going from 15, to 9, to 6, to 3 this year. So, I think the Sox need to re-calibrate the expectation of keeping Ramirez, and use the money he was slotted to make somewhere else. And if you aren't going to tender him in the offseason, there's no reason to keep him now. Trade him for whatever you can get. Ok, but all of that begs the following questions: - Where do you put that $9m that will make a difference? - Who plays SS that is likely to produce more? - What do you gain by selling now (at the lowest possible value) versus later (at potentially higher value)?

They're doing their best to blow up Quintana, but it just isn't catching on: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...-than-the-mets/ (I usually quote the post in addition to the link, but this one has so many charts that it just isn't worth it)

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 01:39 PM) He's also a better bet to be much worse than Flowers. I think you're missing my point, though -- there's a chance he'll be good. There's (virtually) no chance Flowers will be good. So if you can only replace one, you're better off with a decent player and a bad guy with upside than you are with a decent player and a bad guy with no upside.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:12 PM) He's labour league average offensively. Bigger problems all over the diamond He's not, though. 73 wRC+ is awful and very much below league-average, and his defense (at least to the extent we can measure it) doesn;t make up the difference. He's a replacement-level player. He's the definition of a hole in the lineup.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) I would argue the upside of Garcia, but it depends on how you view his defensive upside. If you don't think it is significant, then it would take massive offensive upside to make him very valuable. I think 3B and Corner outfield are massive holes. I'd also argue shortstop is as well, but again, shortstop is a bit of a wasteland (although not to the same extent as catcher). Sure if you have someone above average their, it is a major win, but we fail so significantly in the corner outfield and at 3B. I won't discuss 2B because I think we have internal options. You won't find me arguing much to defend Garcia -- I'm just saying he's a better bet to be productive than Flowers is.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 12:40 PM) He is a "replacement level player". He's been just about as valuable at his position this year as Adam Eaton. If we had a strong team around him, that'd be ok. A team can live with 1-2 replacement level players in their lineup if they're strong elsewhere. OTOH, we're weak everywhere. Our OF is easily the worst in baseball. 3b, 2b, SS all are terrible. Flowers being a replacement level player is therefore a problem, but it's not even as big of a problem as say, Avi Garcia is. If we could find a major upgrade at catcher, fine go ahead. But it's not our biggest issue. If we upgraded catcher solidly and brought the IF up to tolerable with Micah, Saladino, Sanchez, and maybe a FA signing, we'd still have major issues in the OF and elsewhere in the lineup. The difference between Flowers and our OFs is that all of our OFs have upside. So while a 2-win upgrade would feel like a 2-win upgrade anywhere, you're far, far less likely to get it out of Flowers than you are out of Eaton or even Garcia. Obviously I've convinced myself Alexei is much more likely to turn up for 2-wins as well. At 2B, we at least have a couple defenders and several prospects who could break out. Catcher is a wasteland. i agree that 3B is just as big a problem, maybe moreso. But I don't think we should be ready to tolerate replacement-level at any point on the diamond. Even if it means picking up some zombie veteran who can give us 1 WAR for a few million bucks.

Where are we getting the impression that Tyler Flowers is decent?

Pentecost is obviously the biggest name that has been floated. Obviously the shoulder is a concern, but we have to assume that if the Sox target him, they are satisfied with the medicals. Sounds like Cashman has been poo-pooing the idea of any big acquisitions, so I'd imagine that he's not planning on moving Sanchez, who is finally hitting in AAA. If anyone is still dreaming about Schwarber for Quintana or something, I'd recommend letting that thought go. I think the Astros see Stassi as their long-term solutions and are going to let their older guys go to free agency.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 02:52 PM) The problem your article ignores (still great analysis BTW), is that Alexei will be 34 next season. You more than anyone on this site should acknowledge that even if he has been unlucky this year, he's due for significant regression in the very near future. IMO, hoping for bounceback in luck AND no decline due to age is a gamble not worth taking at $10M. For that kind of money, we should be able to get a younger, better bounceback candidate at a different position of need. I'm assuming you mean "decline" instead of "regression" -- but yes, I agree. The problem is that we have to keep in mind that we have to deal with a weak replacement for him as well. I'm not sure what we can get for $10m that will improve another spot and also be worth the difference between Alexei and Saladino. To me, it looks more likely that Alexei will produce $10m of value than it does that Saladino will turn out better than anyone ever expected. That, and there's really nothing on the free agent market (or likely trade market) that looks like a significant upgrade at C or 3B that can be made possible with $9m.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 01:59 PM) With Alexei having a $1 million buyout/$10 million option next year, there's very little reason to "give him a chance to bounce back". You do that with guys who are under contract, not guys where you're picking their options up. QUOTE (shysocks @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 02:20 PM) The question is, a bounceback to what? Right now the 2014 power output is the aberration and his peripherals most resemble 2013 Alexei, except it seems to me he's making a lot more weak contact. 2013 Alexei without the plus defense seems like a bad guy to spend $10M on when we don't have to. I'm not convinced that $10m can be re-allocated in a way to make up for the difference between a bounce-back Alexei and what Tyler Saladino is likely to produce. The FA market for SS is weak, and if you're going to "let the kids play," you're not likley to use the money anyway.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) Flowers will be around as long as Chris Sale likes him. Folks should get used to it. I really wish we could prove that he's actually good for our pitchers, because he sure looks like he sucks at absolutely everything related to baseball.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 11:51 AM) While I totally disagree with the conclusion, I also offer compliments on the article and post. Well done. QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 12:56 PM) Great job, Mike! Thanks guys!

Saladino will be around next year, too. I don't see any harm in giving Alexei a chance to bounce back/rebuild some value. As it is, a trade at this point would probably be a salary dump anyway. If he's this bad next year, he can be DFA'd or dumped for Saladino. Like I said in the article, it's certainly possible there's something the numbers are totally missing, but from what I c an tell, betting on a bounceback here makes a ton of sense. Might not happen, but it looks more likely than most of the other lottery tickets we see.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 20, 2015 -> 10:51 AM) Great article, nice first blog post, Mike. Thanks!

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 6, 2015 -> 08:04 AM) Conor Gillaspie is near worthless, loses starting job. Doesn't seem so bold in retrospect.

They need to move Samardzija now. The market is ripe. Plenty of fish in the sea this offseason to replace him.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 06:44 PM) Hope not. Off injury, terrible year, free agent in 2017. So you wouldn't swap Samardzija for Lucroy?

Eno is one of the nicest guys I've ever met. Wish I could make this.

I'm disappointed. Sucks when, even in a lost season, you can't see your best player play in the AS game.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 02:30 PM) Well the article suggested you can get one loan per year. QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 02:30 PM) Well one thing to point out is, you would only be able to acquire 1 player on loan (so it isn't as if you could acquire a new roster...just one guy). I do agree, that it would mean numerous stars trade hands. It could also be extremely exciting. Maybe you add an extra wrinkle that you could only do it every other year (which would further dilute what changes hands). The big wild card is what happens when an injury happens and well, lets be honest, they would happen. You also lose the ability to control the pitch counts, etc, of your player so they could run your pitcher into the ground and thus sets you back the following year. I would think this would be a major benefit for small market teams. While rebuilding, they might have a star player who they could leverage to gain more assets (and thus rebuild faster). When I first read the title I thought I would totally hate it, but when I read the restrictions put in place and fact that money wasn't really going to be the factor, it became far more intriguing. Yeah, I just don't see the issue with just trading for the guy, though. I don't know. I don't like the "feel" of it, I guess.

I would absolutely hate this. Every playoff franchise would get a bunch of ringers every year, and it wouldn't even feel like it was the same franchise that actually got through the season in the first place. I understand that trades for pending free agents are kind of halfway there already, but as a fan, I can at least consider the rental player a "part of my team."

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 01:46 PM) Montas and Adams for Cruz. Get it done. Shut up, Kenny!

I'd give up Avi for Bruce in a heartbeat before even considering the implications or direction of the team.

Between warmups and the one inning of work he'll get, he'll throw maybe 40 pitches. Normal side session.