Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 08:46 PM) The problem with Avi is that pitchers own him. I love the idea of a Good Avi too, but everyone agrees that he's almost being bullied by pitchers right?? Trayce looks way smarter at the plate...and that has absolutely zero to do with BB%, BABIP, OBP, K% or any stat. Zero zilch nada. Agree? Yes? QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 09:12 PM) I didn't say to ignore it, I made clear my reasoning that it could be a blip. I'd feel better if it was higher, sure. It's part of the reason I've said I want to see more from him. And I'm not holding it against Avi, the main evidence I have against him is his 1000+ PA in the majors with no improvement (again - worse than Dayan Viciedo at the same age at the same level), I was just using it against the whole "Avi destroyed the minors" stuff. You know what I like about Trayce RE: his K rate? His O-Swing in the Majors this year is a very sexy 25.7%, substantially below average. His Z-Swing is a bit beklow average, too, but not by much (65%). This means he's being patient and selective but not OVERLY patient and selective. That, as much as anything, is the formula for TFT being a good player. His contact rates are below average and will likely always be unless he sacrifices a ton of power, so he needs to continue to choose the right pitches to punish. Essentially, also exactly what Avi needs to do but has shown no sign of even trying. Btw, Avi's O-Swing is up to 47.1% (!) somehow, second worst in the entire Majors behind only Pablo Sandoval. Holy s***.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 06:26 PM) If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia. In short, because Trayce hasn't failed in the Majors for three years yet.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 10:13 AM) One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA. (wRC+, far right, 100 is average) If Trayce really CAN strikeout only 17% of the time in the majors, I have no doubt he'll actually be a decent player. But that would be a miracle. I can't think of any reason to expect that to happen.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 04:57 AM) Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA. And it's still bad.

1. Jason Bere 2. Estaban Loaiza 3. Javier Vazquez 4. John Danks 5. Raaandy Williams Honorable Mentions: Jim Parque, Bartolo Colon, Danny Darwin, Brian Anderson

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 01:11 PM) I think the trick is that "you're paying $6-$7 million based on what the guy did last year". You then wind up paying $9.5 million because "what they did last year" doesn't take into account the chances of a guy going all LaRoche/Melky/Rios/etc. And that is so common - guys underperform so incredibly much - that failures like them are the norm, not the exception. You sign a couple guys and you're bound to find someone who completely disappoints. Especially if you sign a dude who just had a career year. This is why I'm going to be vocally against Yoenis Cespedes all offseason when half this board is clambering for him every day.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 30, 2015 -> 02:40 PM) 80-82. I don't believe in Avisail Garcia, I don't believe in the back end of the rotation, and I have to predict that a couple guys get hurt just because usually a couple guys get hurt. If those things happen, the team has some real holes. That said, I'm absolutely hopeful for an awesome season, and even if the team jumps from 60-something wins to 80 wins, it'll still be a very positive thing. A playoff appearance very much COULD happen. But I think it's less than 50% that the team makes the playoffs, so my my best guess seems a little negative. Not too far off. Looks like it'll be a touch high.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 12:31 PM) I would rather give him the one year at $10 million, versus a discounted 2 year deal. Same. If he bounces back, we're either contending or he's trade bait, with some outside chance of him raking enough to be worth a QO. It's his last year with us.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 10:47 AM) How do you come up with "very good player?" What stats back that up? As I noted above 23rd of 24 in WAR. He may be worth $10MM to the Sox because they have no one else, but he is not good. He essentially had a very bad first half. He was a three-win player as recently as last year. We can admit that he's declining without insisting that he isn't still a useful player, and especially so when the best candidates to replace him are utilitymen.

I'd pick up the option, but I'd be comfortable with letting him play himself into a bench role if Saladino happens to improve. But, that's a very "armchair GM" thing to say -- clearly MLB managers aren't as quick to bench the veteran. I told you guys he looked like a positive regression candidate, and he was, but that doesn't mean he isn't getting older. He'll probably lose another step next year, but he's still a better hitter than Saladino/Sanchez. I just don't think that $10m can be spent elsewhere in a way that realistically helps the team more. If Hahn is planning on going balls out for Weiters or something and knows he's going to need every penny, then sure, that's a different story.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 3, 2015 -> 07:18 PM) pitch better bro.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 3, 2015 -> 07:34 AM) And like I've said, second base isn't a power hitting position. The only power-hitting second baseman is Dozier. and Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Wilmer Flores, Neil Walker, Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, Logan Forsythe, etc.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 01:04 PM) Never saw this one before. Just awesome Haha POTY

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 08:54 AM) The bid was instituted by his namesake museum IIRC. Ahh, ok.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 10:48 AM) I think this is the year that has soured me a bit on ERA. Sale is on pace to easily have the worst ERA of his career, but by pretty much any other metric he's having easily the best year of his career. Strikeouts are way up, walks are down, and if you look at his batted ball profile he's easily giving up the weakest contact of his career this year. Career-best FIP and SIERA, and he's throwing a lot more innings/start this season too. Problem is his .321 BABIP, which is significantly higher than his career average. Quintana also has a crazy high BABIP (.343, second highest in the majors after Gio Gonzalez), yet according to his batted ball profile he's also giving up the weakest contact of his career. Welcome to the dark side

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 09:27 AM) Quintana is better than about half the guys on that list. If he spent the last 4 years on the Cardinals, he'd be widely considered one of the top 5 pitchers in the game. What? Which guys?

I mean. Ok, this might sound callous, but: Who cares? The guy was born 126 years ago, before cars were invented. He retired before electricity was common in homes. He died before polio was cured. Does the sixth generation of his family really need this? How can we possibly have evidence to overturn anything from that long ago? Is anyone not over this?

Hahn basically said nothing at all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 07:25 AM) Nothing will happen. Robertson will be the White Sox closer next year. This. He's more valuable than his contract to the Sox, but the Yankees don't need him enough to give up talent. So Cashman will offer some garbage and to take the contract, but the Sox won't do it, so he'll be pulled back.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 28, 2015 -> 05:22 PM) I really hate responding to you because you are so smart and I am an ignoramus. What I mean is do normal baseball fans these days even know what you're saying ? My guess there's not too many who can explain the theory of being replacement level, which is the easier of the things you are trying to say. Now I know some might think they know what it is but couldn't quite put it into words if you asked them without looking it up 1st. Bat is one standard deviation below league average and glove one below legendary bad ? Let me look all that up on the back of todays modern baseball card, or let some announcers on baseball telecasts explain it to me . Oh wait pretty much the only place you find this stuff is online or in some level of math class I never got to or forgot long ago. You may very well be right about Avi but by traditional numbers Alexei, LaRoche , Flowers have been worse right ? I can't understand why then a MLB organization with reems and reems of all this wonderful new data can play all 4 of those guys full time . Maybe I'm wrong and I'm sure there will be others to say they understand most advanced stats but I still believe there is a wide gap between a regular baseball explanation for why Avi is so bad and the advanced metrics explanation .At least half the people who read what you said can't explain in more simple terms. And I actually think it's more than 50% and there are more highly educated young men on Soxtalk than your average fan. I'm a dinosaur I know but when people used to talk baseball they didn't need a chalk board with a lot of x's on it with derivatives and 5 syllable mathematical terms. Baseball used to unite the classes , unite the young and the old, now its just one more thing that divides us. I'm really NOT trying to be an asshole and I'm not trying to talk down my nose. What you said is EXACTLY my point actually -- if you only look at his average and his RBIs, it seems like he's just mediocre. But when you actually quantify how bad his defense is, look at how hard it is for him to get on base, and then compare him to other players in RF, he looks so so so much worse than just mediocre. I'm not pointing it out to be a troll, I'm pointing it out because it isn't obvious unless you take a deeper look, and I know not everyone gives a s*** about this stuff to take that deeper look. And that's actually one of the biggest differences from the sabermetric perspective and the traditional one: looking at players in a context that makes more sense. Yes, LaRoche/Flowers/Alexei have been worse hitters on a raw level, but when you compare Flowers/Alexei to what you can realistically expect from guys at their positions, they don't look any worse than Avi (LaRoche has no such excuse). The reason I always end up posting this type of stuff isn't because I'm smart, it's because I'm willing to waste more of my time reading about all this type of stuff than the average fan. It doesn't make me cool, it makes me a f***ing geek.

Yay, TFT. For real. Trayce Thompson is still more likely to be a bust than a productive ML player. It's just reality, though I hope he proves everyone wrong. That said, I don't think people here really understand how bad Avisail Garcia has been. We're not talking about a so-so Major Leaguer who just hasn't realized his upside -- we're talking about almost 1000 PA of SUBSTANTIALLY below replacement level. A league-average player is two wins ABOVE replacement level per season. Avi has literally played worse than what could be expected from a random AAA scrub in each of the four seasons he's touched the majors. The bat is about one standard deviation below league average, and the glove is about one standard deviation step from legendarily bad. Yes, he's got upside, and it certainly could all click one day. But he's got a LONG way to climb before he's even an average player, let alone any kind of star.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 24, 2015 -> 02:37 PM) Quintana will be dealt. The problem is we usually trade or let go the wrong guy. Look at Santiago. Look at Mark Buehrle. Look at McCarthy before he got hurt. In the offseason maybe they could package Q and Danks and Micah, make somebody take Johnny's salary and we get one Puig and Ethier in return. I think the obvious trade is for Ethier and Puig. The question is what do we give up? I say Q, Danks and Micah. Hector Santiago was NOT the wrong guy. 2.91 ERA against a 4.12 FIP. There are guys that beat FIP, but they're guys that induce weak contact and limit homers. Hector Santiago and he's NOT one of them -- he's got an unrealistic 83% LOB rate and a .256 BABIP. Dude is going to come crashing down to Earth. Besides, who was the "right" guy to trade then? Which of our other pitchers would you have moved instead (that would have actually been enough to net Eaton)?

I'm not panicked about this signing for the same reason I didn't panic initially -- It's a two year deal and while it's for significant money, it's not for crippling money. LaRoche has been bad, but it's gonna be alright.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 21, 2015 -> 08:12 AM) I couldn't get past Carlos Quintana. lol same

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 20, 2015 -> 09:54 AM) I compiled the WAR stats for pitchers from Baseball-Reference to compare to fangraphs. B-R seems to me to underweight things like strikeouts in favor of overweighting what actually happens on the field whereas I've always felt that Fangraphs underestimates some things happening on the field in favor of value for pitching a lot of innings and piling up strikeouts - Fangraphs to me might underestimate the skill of creating weak contact or keeping the ball where your fielders are playing while B-R may overestimate it. Another way of putting it is that FanGraphs assumes the pitcher gets NONE of the credit for what happens wit the defense, and B-R assumes that the pitcher gets ALL of the credit. Both entities acknowledge that the truth is somewhere in the middle, but they don't agree on how to deal with the error. B-R thinks that your WAR isn't useful unless it's a complete answer, even if that means that there's significant error in the actual measurement. FanGraphs would rather give you an incomplete number and say "hey this doesn't tell the whole story, but what it DOES tell you is accurate" and then have you insert your own caveats for the rest. The "rest" essentially comes down to a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact and/or control where the ball lands. Most people (myself included) tend to favor the FG approach, and just acknowledge that there will be exceptions to the established norms.