Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Hamhock @ Oct 20, 2015 -> 09:26 AM) I'll say this much about Dominic; his one very good season (2013) directly coincided with Wally Joyner being the Phillies assistant hitting coach, and Wally worked extensively with him throughout that year. When Wally left the Phillies at the end of 2013, so did Dominic's production. That correlation won't hold up in court, my friend.

Left-handed Avi. He won't sign just to be stashed in Charlotte, so it won't work. Aim higher.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 18, 2015 -> 01:37 PM) Wasn't there a rumor going into the draft that Theo coveted Rodon? I mean I'm sure tons of GMs coveted Rodon.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 19, 2015 -> 08:03 AM) Or the Sox could move Eaton to left and Trayce to center and move Melky on his way. That would improve the D significantly. Avi, in his first full season, hit a whole .34 OPS less than Melky and had twice the number of assists. Even better, sell high on Eaton- rather trade him to plug holes than Quintana. So we've got two bad outfielders and one good outfielder, and you'd rather use the flash-in-the-pan prospect to replace the good one?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2015 -> 12:32 PM) It is getting better. Unlike the free agent market, these things aren't immediately obvious. Good signs -The Sox put multiple minor leaguers who were drafted/originally signed and developed by the team, into key roles and had some levels of success. Chances are somewhere between 1 and 3 starters of the position players will be guys fully developed by the organization. While not great, it is an improvement. -The Sox have put something over $10 million into Latin America over the last 4 years or so, and those players are starting to show up state side. -The highest rated position players are still moving through the system, and will be here soon. -The team has added a ton of talent to the system in the last few years through the draft. -Despite the amount of players that have graduated from being rankable, the system ranking is steadily moving upwards. I agree with you. General consensus seems to be that the Sox buried themselves for the next few years by "going for it" in 2015, but I don't think that's the case at all. I liked the moves they made almost solely because they DIDN'T bury themselves. Offering high dollar/low years free agent contracts, trading only mid-tier prospects exclusively from positions of depth, and continually increasing (or at least maintaining) investment levels in amateur talent despite the ML payroll increase are about the best possible strategies for building a sustained winner without nuking the entire system and turning Bridgeport into a post-apocalyptic wasteland for five years in the process.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 15, 2015 -> 02:25 PM) Actually Maddon did the same thing in Tampa. He was constantly subbing in late innings, mixing up starters and really using all 25 players on the roster. Did you think we needed to see more Emilio Bonifacio?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2015 -> 12:17 PM) Which is exactly what we saw in KC, Montreal, and Pittsburgh for long periods of time. Exactly! If the Sox are failing at developing talent around their stars, the answer is to get better at developing talent around their stars. Hitting 'reset' just means you have to find the stars all over again and STILL face the challenge of developing talent around them.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Oct 15, 2015 -> 11:04 AM) Parent was fired because of reasons that are only own to people in the org Only useful fact stated so far in this thread since the OP.

I feel obligated to say this once every ten pages: If you trade young stars locked up to long-term, sub-market deals, you will ALWAYS be rebuilding. These players are the elusive "best case scenario" for what prospects turn into, and it only works out 1% of the time. You wouldn't spend $1,000 to buy four lottery tickets that each gave you a 1% chance to win your money back.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Oct 15, 2015 -> 11:18 AM) Semien would serve no purpose on the current Sox team. Sanchez/Johnson cover 2nd, Alexei/someone else plays short, and Olt/Saladino/etc play third. His glove is awful, especially on the left side of the infield. He'd probably be best suited for 2nd base and there's no space for him. Exactly. I LIKED Semien, but we have to acknowledge that it's a good idea to trade from depth.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 14, 2015 -> 07:54 PM) He definitely does. The manager creates an atmosphere that either encourages or discourages the team. As I originally posted, I had not seen the Cubs play until this series. Look how Joe Maddon is making changes with his lineup. I would think having a lineup w 4 rookies playing key roles makes his job a lot tougher than a team w a strong veteran presence. The manager creates the atmosphere and ultimately is the cheerleader and the ass-kicker. Read Terry Francona's book about all the drama that comes with the job. Having rookies who hit dingers makes his job easier than having rookies who strike out and fail on defense.

Blech we can't keep these guys long enough. Who's next to inherit the "best pub scout writer" crown?

Mark, I don't know you, so please don't take this as personal, but this s*** really grinds my gears. QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Oct 12, 2015 -> 07:56 PM) Finally regarding advanced stats. I'll simply say this...they obviously have a part in the game but baseball is played by real life humans with billions of variables in play literally throughout the season...from injuries, to slumps to bad weather to bad calls and fluke bounces. THOSE SIMPLY ARE NOT, CAN NOT AND WILL NEVER BE QUATIFIABLE...period. I think those who think they can are delusional. Literally no one thinks this. The randomness/unpredictability of particular events is DEEPLY ingrained in projection models and regression analysis and have been for over a decade. In fact, one of the easiest ways to use sabermetrics without digging in at all is simply to know which numbers/events CAN'T be predicted and then look to see if a player's performance has been greatly affected by them. If so, that player is not likely to continue whatever it is that player has been doing. QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Oct 12, 2015 -> 07:56 PM) Plus I like to think I'm a fairly intelligent individual. I want to be able to enjoy baseball and not need a f***ing advanced degree in quantum theory or advanced mechanics to be able to...let alone to be able to even try to understand most of the gobbledygook that is being spewed out by some computer geek in his basement on his laptop. (Not directed towards you or anyone in particular but just as a general comment.) Where do you get this "advanced degree in physics" crap? Harold Reynolds? 95% of every "advanced stat" is just an average. This stuff is NOT hard to understand, it's just that people like you refuse to attempt to understand it, and that's evident in the fact that you imply things like sabermetricians insisting that randomness can be predicted. You have an issue with something that doesn't even exist. You CAN get it, you just don't WANT to get it. Even when there's complicated math involved (i.e. Markov chains used in projections), you don't have to understand the actual math to understand what the math is doing (i.e. generates the average outcome of events of given probabilities in a way such that previous iterations don't affect future iterations) This is what it looks like when people decide they hate something before they even try to understand it. It's totally fine that you aren't interested and don't feel like spending the time to learn about it. By all means, enjoy this game however you like -- it's nothing but entertainment, after all. But then please don't draw random, uninformed conclusions about it anyway.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 13, 2015 -> 06:46 AM) Hahahah, cmon on man. Sale could easily get you Arenado and Cargo. Add Fulmer, Q and Abreu? Hah. I'm not sure Colorado would trade Arenado for Sale straight up. Maybe since they need pitching so badly, but that's how valuable pre-arb positional stars are.

Guys Arenado is not getting traded.

I think the Sox are going to be active, but I don't think it's going to be in the free agent market. I think they'll be looking to make several trades to improve the offense, and I think they'll sign some dudes to improve the bullpen.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 7, 2015 -> 06:40 PM) Well, it's not like I suggested giving Eaton away. Bring a 3B and/or C in for him. How then are the Sox going to get better? You have to trade something to get something. I think Trayce is miles better than Eaton defensively (a lot of that is because Eaton isn't particularly good defensively). I also don't know why people are so down on Avisail, yet say nothing about Melky. Huge age differential, salary differential. Both are poor defensively (although Avi had more assists). While Melky out-hit Avi, he still was below par offensively. Melky Cabrera has a long history of being an average to above average contributor. He's put up 2.5-4.5 fWAR in three of the last five seasons, and one of those where he DIDN'T was a year where he had a tumor on his spine. Avisail Garcia's entire career has been a below-replacement-level trainwreck in which he hits like a mediocre second baseman and fields like he's never played baseball before. It's much easier to see Melky putting up a 2+ WAR season that it is to see Garcia putting up a 2+ WAR season.

Yeah that's strange. Why DFA these guys now? Why not wait until a trade or signing needs to be made?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 7, 2015 -> 09:38 AM) The fact that they are not blaming the manager means they are blaming the players. I expect a very active winter for the White Sox. That's the way I took it, too. I think it's ultimately good news.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 08:49 PM) Another thing that bothers me is it seems like the good CFer's generally have higher defensive value than corner OFer's. Again maybe it's something I see rather than a fact. But a CFer can run gap to gap at full speed while corner OFer's must temper their approach to balls hit down the line because of the chance of colliding with walls. This tempered approach is necessary unless you have no regard for your body yet corner OF's can't get those ridiculously high defensive ratings as much as CFer's do. Alex Gordon was about the highest you'll see in 2014 for a corner. Heyward in 2012, 2014 and 2015 was pretty high also. When someone like Trout moves from CF to a corner doesn't it seem like their defensive rating always goes down yet they are the same player with the same speed and abilities. I know being strong up the middle is essential in baseball like it's always been so a truly gifted defensive CFer has more inherent value built into the position just like SS does. Again playing a corner means you can't run as fast or must slow down when approaching walls but is that something that is taken into consideration ? The defensive numbers just tell us about what plays they make. They don't care how the player went about making the plays. As this Statcast stuff continues to develop, we'll be able to develop a much richer idea of what each player does well and poorly and I think it will contribute substantially to our notion of what actually makes a good defender at each position. For now though, we just count what they managed to pull off or not and give it a run value.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 08:08 PM) Hmm doesn't seem like his offensive numbers are worth 2.5 WAR to me at all. Under .300 OBP , 98 wRC . And sorry once again if the advanced stats confuse me and I don't understand evrything I am looking at. But to me it looks like just about all of his WAR came from defense. QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 08:19 PM) LOL. he must be the best defensive center fielder of all time. Absurd. Couple things: 1) That defensive runs number includes the positional adjustment, so he's getting 10 or so runs tacked on just for that 2) His defensive runs was the highest in the entire MLB this year, and it wasn't particularly close. So if you think it's absurd that he could contribute that much, keep in mind that we've chosen an example that literally represents the most extreme outcome. Also, for whatever reason, people assume that it's gospel that "defense never slumps" and reject the idea that players can have good or bad years with the glove despite evidence to the contrary, so it's very possible that Kiermaier PLAYED like the best CF of alltime this year without necessarily BEING the greatest CF of alltime.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 01:43 PM) Heyward is like 26. He'll be the big fish of the bats. Maybe a 5/80 for Cespedes or Upton. I don't know what the market would be and if I'd sign them yet. Just throwing two names out there with numbers. Cespedes will easily be $100m+. I can see him with a Werth-like deal.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) Plus offensive contributor, elite defensive player and only 26. You're buying his "prime" years instead of his 29/30+ years with your typical free agents. It's a combination of the players he is, his age and I am sure the fact that he was once the consensus #1 prospect doesn't hurt his case. I wouldn't advocate doing it but given the way the market has been I get it. He's also an on-base guy in an era where no one gets on base.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 01:40 PM) OK. I appreciate you getting me up to speed on this. Seems like it has limited predictive value then, which is what my initial hunch was. No problem!

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Oct 6, 2015 -> 01:30 PM) The difference is the White Sox don't deliver at all. They're bad every year. They can't draft position players, either. That's fair, but I'm just saying it isn't a lack of a plan.