Eminor3rd

Guys You don't trade stars that are signed to the deals that Sale/Quintana are signed to. You literally cannot find better long-term assets. They are better than prospects. You trade your stars that are market rate assets. We have already done this -- the only one left is Alexei. Trading Sale and signing Scherzer is NOT a wash because Scherzer takes up 25% of your payroll. There is NO deal that we should accept that the Red Sox were willing to make for Chris Sale. Because the only deals we should except are deals that would make them worse.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 02:19 AM) By my count, the Red Sox have 9 outfielders..... Cespedes, Castillo, Hanley, Victorino, Nava, Craig, Bradley Jr., Betts, Holt Their starting rotation is a mess. I can't imagine with this wild spending spree that they don't just go for broke (sound familar? Beckett, Gonzalez, Crawford) and bring back Lester or even add Scherzer. I'd like to see the Sox target Betts to play LF. Even though it may be a slap in the face, I'd like to see us offer Montas + a lesser prospect for Betts. Maybe Montas + Beck. I think Betts would be an awesome fit for this team as he just turned 22, he hits for good average (.346 in 99 games in AA-AAA, .291 in 51 ML games), hits for decent power (11 HR in AA-AAA, 5 in ML), steals a lot of bases (33 in AA-AAA, 7 in ML), walks MORE than he strikes out (61 BB, 50 K in AA-AAA, 21 BB, 31 K in ML), and plays CF and 2B, meaning he should be able to play a good LF for us. I mean, he's a super impressive player who absolutely dominated baseball at age 21. Combine AA-AAA-MLB numbers last year, and he hit about .320 with 16 HR, 40 SB, 42 2B, a 400+ OBP, and he still has 6 years of team control left. I mean, he'd be a pretty phenomenal get, in my opinion. It would probably cost us a LOT more than Montas + Beck if it wasn't for the fact that the Red Sox have so many damn OFers already, and it's certainly possible they will clear other guys in order to KEEP Betts. But I wish Hahn would really press Cherington and try and dangle some of our pitching prospects for him. That's a FRACTION of Betts' price.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 08:09 PM) Looking at Viciedo's numbers, he's only one year removed from .318 and two from .325. So It's not like he's never done it. But put that in context. Cespedes career wRC+ numbers 2012 - 2014: 136, 102, 109 Viciedo over the same three years: 98, 96, 88 wRC+ is essentially wOBA but indexed so you can see how it compares to league average. Viciedo has been a below average bat by wOBA in every full season of his career. Cespedes, on the other hand, has been above average every year, even if just sightly.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 06:31 PM) i am really torn on this, do i like him or is he no better than DV. i am confuse. He is clearly better than DV. That doesn't mean we should want him. DV is terrible, lots of players are better.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 05:18 PM) I don't know about way better. At this point Cespedes is a .330 wOBA guy. I still feel Viciedo has a shot at being at least a .320 wOBA guy. I mean I think you hit my point on the head right there. Cespedes currently IS a tick better at the plate than you think Viciedo HAS A CHANCE TO BE. And Cespedes is also a substantially better defender.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 04:40 PM) I wish this guy was the Mets GM Wyatt Derp ‏@NewYorkMehts 38m38 minutes ago Will Wheeler + Syndergaard + DeGrom and Montero get us Alexei Ramirez, lets do it! Rofl. The anti-homer.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) They're really not that much better. He's a huge upgrade defensively and he can hit for a bit more power, but I don't think Cespedes is the kind of guy you want. If Viciedo gets some good luck in a year, he can easily match Cespedes' production the past two years. Idk man. I'm very much on the "Cespedes is overrated" team, but he's way better than Viciedo. Cespedes has been a 2-3 win player every year, Viciedo has been replacement level his entire career.

QUOTE (bruni @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 01:36 PM) Judging by the comments, this will not go over well but if someone is willing to trade me Cespedes and Bogaerts plus another throw in (Nava?, Middlebrooks?) for Sale, I make that trade all day long. I then immediately have SS solved for the next 6+ years and I work to sign Cespedes for a longer term deal. I also then flip Alexi to Seattle/LA/NYM or anyone else for 2 young controllable pitchers with upside and grab Headley to play 3B. Every time I watch Sale pitch with the torque he puts on that arm, all I hear is tick...tick...tick... The guy is bound to breakdown and this years stint on the DL for a month is where he is unfortunately likely headed in the years to come. Sell high and solve for 2-4 needs at once for the price of a 12 win pitcher who - while a stud ace when healthy - is a high risk player. Don't think so? Just 2 years ago, the W Sox were going to make him a reliever to save his arm, remember? And if you don't like what Boston has to offer, I'd put it out there are the GM meetings in December that all but Abreu are available so make an offer. Sale is never going to be more valuable than now and our team needs multiple solutions, not just one. Am I in the minority - absolutely. Do I hope Sale can stay and give the W Sox an injury free HOF career - you bet. But as a 22+ year season ticket holder growing tired of watching the team finish out of the playoffs, I'd rather use our most valuable, yet risky piece to gain depth and improve the teams over all talent base. PS - for the Cespedes haters, while yes he is overrated, last year only 9 players in the AL reached 100 RBI's in 2014 and Cespedes was one of them. That type of production is increasingly hard to come by so the comparisons with him and Viciedo need to really stop as it is not even close. Plus a middle of the line up with Abreu, Cespedes, La Roche, Headley, Garcia looks pretty good to me. Stick Eaton at leadoff and Bogaerts in the 2 hole and you are going to have a serious offense! OK - now let me have it! Reasons for no: 1. Cespedes is way, way overrated. He is not necessarily a guy you even want to extend if his price is anywhere near what people are expecting http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF 2. While Xander is undoubtedly valuable and people forget how young he is, he did NOT play well last year, and so his value did diminish a bit. He's still worth a ton, but he isn't the "untouchable top prospect" he was before 3. Injury prone or not, you rarely have the opportunity to acquire superstar even via free agency, and then, it is at bloated market rates and it is when the guy's best years are likely behind him. Everything you like about Sale is multiplied twice over by his contract and age. You cannot replace his contribution and still have any semblance of competitive advantage from a spending standpoint. 4. This organization is THIN on good pitching. I know that sounds weird to say, but if you remove Sale from that rotation, you don't even NEED Cespedes because you're bad. And you cannot afford to replace him with Scherzer or someone, because the only reason you can even HAVE Sale is that he comes at a low cost. You can't move Sale. He's literally the ideal building block. Maybe you'd rather he be a position player, but if you aren't going to try to build around a 25-year old top 3 Cy Young finisher who is controllable for six years at bargain values, you need to get out of baseball. You're not trying to win at that point.

QUOTE (bruni @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) I'd be most interested in Middlebrooks on the cheap to solve 3B. Potential delayed with injury and mismanagement but (to me anyway) far more potential and nice power to solve 3B for the long term. Or give up more and try to snag Bogaerts if you can, but Middlebrooks should cost far less and fills a need. With all due respect, I could not disagree more. Middlebrooks is terrible. In fact, he was the only prospect in the majors I wanted LESS than Avisail Garcia when we made the Peavy deal.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 08:40 AM) Sox just don't have the bullets unless they want to send Q over there. They better not trade Q for Cespedes. What? Cespedes is worth like, one quarter of Quintana. Maybe a third. Part of it's because he;s way overrated, but mostly it's because he has only one year of control, whereas Quintana has like 5 under-market years. Quintana would get Cespedes and a couple notable prospects from Boston, and I bet they'd LOVE to make that deal.

Jaso, I believe, has had some concussion issues that are going to keep him away from C from now on. And Jaso as a first baseman is just not a ML player, unfortunately for him and his family. Reddick, though, would be a great fit.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Nov 23, 2014 -> 12:23 AM) You know who really mashes lefties in our system, and might be the best platoon partner for ALaR? None other than Mr. Gordita Crunchella himself. I personally thought he should have spent some time in Charlotte last year, putting him on an earlier arrival track. How's he doing in winter ball? I want Tank gone mainly because he can't be played in the OF, but also because he'll be relatively uncheap, given the dearth of AB's he 'll get DHing vs. LHP - can't see it really increasing future value or fostering growth. Indeed -- too bad they yanked him off 3B. It's harder to justify 25-man roster spots for three first basemen at the same time.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) This just proves to me why I'm not a sabermetric guy and hate how they are used to justify players values because Trout is a much better baseball player than Quintana regardless of what those "metrics" say. Personally, I'd trade Quintana for Bruce tomorrow. I'd probably trade him for Mike Trout too Of course Trout is better. Balta 's point is related to the economics. He's illustrating why Quintana's value is substantially higher than a typical pitcher of his skill because of the price at which it comes. His contract must be factored. Quintana for Bruce straight up would be the worst trade in Sox history. And literally all of us would trade Quintana for Trout without even stopping to think.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 09:06 AM) You're right. And they didn't. I don't see too many positives with this deal. I would've reached higher and farther. It's weird so many people here like the deal, but they didn't like Dunn. I think it's a total fallacy to compare ANYONE to Dunn. Instantly falling off a cliff to become two to the standard deviations worse is an extremely unlikely outcome for anyone.

Short deal, no draft pick comp, rests abreu, left handed power, doesnt't preclude us from upgrading the OF. Fair money. Love it

I actually think this could be a great fit for the rotating DH/OF model. But no, he's not worth a top prospect. Did Morosi say he'd cost a top prospect?

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 04:53 PM) Sooo what's the alternative? You let him play out his contract and watch him decline like all SS's do in their 30's and watch him walk? Honest question....is it a sentimental thing with Alexei? He's been here for a while so people don't want to see him go? Or is it that people think we are gong to compete next year? People, in general, aren't good at conceptualizing the difference between what a guy has been versus what he will be going forward.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) This graphs only applies if you want him in the field as it considers position and uzr as well as hitting. I don't think it takes a genius to figure out if your are short and overweight you aren't going to be a good fielder at most positions. I wonder what it would look like if you are looking at a dh, so only hitting. It includes positional adjustment, which factors his production in relation to DH. This would include zeroes for defensive value for DHs

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 03:02 PM) He's only 28. And he's not fat yet. Beane is regarded as king of Sabes. Sorry if you don't like the term, but I think the rest of my post makes sense, especially the part about the Sox needing to sign the cheaper free agents who still have upside. If Butler was 34, sure I'd agree he's worthless. I'm not crazy about Hunter as I was signing Butler, but I think Torii for one year might help and he fits into the affordable category as well. One year six million. Dudes he's fat. There's also a well-supported precedent of fat dudes getting bad real fast around age 30. This is rate of change of combined component runs, so it's basically WAR: EDIT: Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-prince-fielder-age/

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 12:02 PM) There's always something odd when a guy was never very good, then got really good, then got busted for roids, then kept being good. Right, it's not like guys typically hit their primes in their late 20's.

There's just no argument for moving Quintana, IMO. The math doesn't work out. He is exactly what we need MORE of, and he comes at the lowest possible salary. Any deal involving him opens up a hole as big as the one it closes.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 11:13 AM) Normally not one for rosterbating but here we go. Lineup: L Eaton S Melky (4 years, $60 million) R Abreu L Davis R Avisail L Gillaspie R Alexei R Flowers R Semien Bench: R Viciedo S Sanchez S Nieto L JorDanks L Shuck Rotation: L Sale L Quintana R McCarthy (3 years, $42 million) L Danks R Noesi Bullpen: R Petricka R Putnam L Duke R Guerra L Surkamp R Carroll That's a .500 team with room to get better, no? Hm. Mayyyybe. I mean you're still really grasping for straws with both Noesi and Danks in the rotation. And while McCarthy is good, he's got a higher than normal chance to be injured. And Davis is an upside guess, and that's still a weak bullpen. I guess I just think that McCarthy should go to a team looking for a short-term boost.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 10:53 AM) Chicago ---> Cincinnati Jose Quintana Chicago ----> Philadelphia Chris Beck Cincinnati ----> Chicago Jay Bruce Philadelphia ----> Chicago Cole Hamels + cash Cincinnati ----> Philadelphia Prospects That would add like $35m to the payroll, and all we would net is Jay Bruce. Cole Hamels/Quintana is essentially a lateral move.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) i think he did not realize someone was talking about Crash Davis from the movies. Ahhh. But seriously, is Kevin Costner available?

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 04:30 AM) Actually, I wouldn't mind seeing Belisario back as a middle reliever, but he has to work on his command. Sorry, lol, I had to.