Eminor3rd

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) But yet, people insist that Dustin Ackley, a year older and a career OPS of a mighty .659 has real value. And Justin Smoak - my gosh, even though he is 3 years older and has a career OBS 35 points below Viciedo, he's a real talent! BTW, Viciedo has a gun. Is that calculated in these defensive metrics? And while most players don't turn their lights on at 26 or 27, some do. A late blooming Cub almost pitched a NH the other night and is having a great year; And then there is Jose Bautista, who had a Viciedo like career until he turned 29. Or Carlos Gomez who arose from the dead at 27. Who are these people suggesting that Ackley and Smoak have value? JZ offered Ackley for DV in the offseason and Hahn turned it down. Dayan Viciedo COULD turn it around, and I hope he does, but it is NOT likely. You can dig and find 3-5 example of late bloomers recently, and I could look at a roster and find hundreds that haven't. So don't expect someone to trade a younger prospect who is more likely to be good. That's all I'm saying.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/5...win-encarnacion Encarnacion went from his rookie year through 2011 (and these were years when power was up) hitting mostly in the low 700ish range for OPS. He played 3B at that time, but he was terrible at that position, and eventually moved to 1B/DH. There's also the example of Jose Bautista, who had a very solid rookie year, almost fell entirely off the map and then recovered. Domonic Brown...Pedro Alvarez, etc. No guarantees, but Encarnacion and Viciedo have been compared a lot. He's definitely worth SOMETHING to someone. Yeah, and people win the lottery every now and then too

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 06:53 PM) Not saying he should be worth a ton, but you're clearly ignoring his power potential in a baseball environment where power is at a premium. Given that he's only 25 years old and has shown some improvement in his plate discipline this year, I think at least a couple teams would have interest in him if the price was right, regardless of how his numbers look on paper. I have no doubt someone would give him a shot, but I really think we're deluding ourselves if we think we're going to get anything exciting back. He can't help anyone right now, and a guy who's had 1500 PA of ML failure is much less likely to help a team LATER than the prospect we would hope they'd give up.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) Well, Franklin's .363 OPS this season probably hasn't instilled the Mariners with much confidence either. On paper, Viciedo is way too much. They found a replacement anyway: he has .609 OPS and .277 OBP. They should be desperate. Viciedo for Franklin. Alexei for quality prospects. Alexei is 6th in OPS in SS. His salary is probably higher than most. What's he worth? Except Viciedo is 2 years and over 1,000 PA older. He's a bad defense, 96 wRC+ left fielder, lol. That's not worth anything on paper.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) Franklin Word is that the Mariners turned down that exact offer in the offseason. I don't think Viciedo has done anything in the meantime to change their minds.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) I don't think so. If you have a catcher who is good with the glove (both defensively and framing wise) while being able to talk to pitchers and throw guys out, anything you get offensively is a bonus. Castro has pretty well proven capable of the former and has shown potential (and produced to some extent as well) with the latter. That's where I'm at, too. I'm assuming that he isn't going to repeat his 130 wRC+ from last year ever again. I'm totally, completely fine with 100 wRC+ with plus defense.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) I plead ignorance on his defense (I thought it was passable when watching live), but over 103 Major League games he is a .287/.323/.411 hitter. That's frankly amazing considering his age and how raw his approach at the plate is. The injury is a huge set back, I admit, but in the off-season I completely understand Hahn not being willing to discuss him in a deal for Castro. But when you say, "for his age," what you're really saying is that he is likely to improve -- which makes perfect sense in most cases. I'm saying that given how "raw" his approach is, one must wonder why it hasn't improved much already. He is a 23 year old who hits like a 19 year old. I'm not saying he won't or can't improve, but that we shouldn't assume that he necessarily will. Throw in the shoulder injury, and just IMO, there's enough uncertainty there for me to move him for a C.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) Then you're talking about finding two corner outfield bats and a LH/DH. Yes, I am cognizant of the fact that catching is extremely difficult to develop. It seems no matter what/who we trade, let's say Alexei Ramirez, it opens up another gaping hole somewhere else in the major league line-up. QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:42 PM) I'm not saying I wouldn't love to have Castro, but not for Garcia. It all depends on how he responses to his injury, of course, but I am bullish on him and his future contributions. Bear it mind the kid just turned 23, he's still developing. I'd just much rather be scrambling to find a corner OF than scrambling to find a C. As far as Avi goes, I understand that I'm lower on him than anyone else on the board, but the reality is that he has a LOT to learn both offensively AND defensively, and it just isn't a given that he will. When you consider how completely clueless he's look on both sides of the ball, all of a sudden 23 doesn't seem so young. Talent in spades, no doubt. But he still has to learn to play.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:30 PM) The guy who is currently hitting .218/.297/.363? And before you say small sample size, he's a career .247/.324/.405 major league hitter. Not saying he doesn't have potential, but for Avi? Injured or not, no freakin way. I'd do it in a second IF Castro came with more team control. He's reputed to be an excellent defender who is developing into one of the best pitch framers in the league. Just one year removed from a 130 wRC+, and two removed from a 100 wRC+. If he gave us 100 going forward with his defense, I'd be thrilled to give up Avi. But he'd have to agree to an extension we liked.

Hickory, we're back to talking about draft picks! No news on Rodon though.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) Trading Alexei for anything less than a Top 50 prospect who is within a year of contributing at the major league level would be insane. I'd move him for a 50-100 guy + two live arms and feel great about it. Then I'd miss him But I'd still feel good about the deal.

Dude this is awesome.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) Trade Viciedo for that young Seattle SS who can't hit. Then trade Alexei for some of their young A and AA pitchers....don't know who, but I'm sure they have some - they always do. I watched their game the other night and they have some guy in the pen with electric stuff and an ERA of around 7...looked like a good "coop can fix 'em" candidate. Brad Miller? I think he's been better lately.

Interesting observation. What's his BABIP/xBABIP at home? The K/BB rates are surprisingly similar considering the huge disparity in production.

I personally do have a sense of urgency to move Alexei. I know that I'll be sad when I realize we've taken his defense for granted, but he's never going to be more valuable than he is this year, he's likely to start losing a step pretty soon, and if this crop of prospects is going to yield anything, it's going to have to net us a MI or two. I'm not thrilled with the AAA crop necessarily, but we've gotta see if Semien or Sanchez can play SS because we need to acquire someone else if they can't. He may defy time, but Alexei isn't likely to be an above average contributor in a few years.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 01:16 AM) I can not stand mediocrity. I know we all went over this topic last season around this time as well, but I would rather this team tank the rest of the way, or dominate the rest of the way. I don't want to see a midround draft pick next June. I'd like to see the team take a substantial step for ward this year so that I can go into the offseason feeling confident about the move that were made and looking forward to adding more talent for 2015. This represents a much more likely road to success than two or three consecutive 90-100 loss seasons all of a sudden turning into a 90-100 wins one year.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 07:33 PM) No, it's that. There is always failure in the pen. It's when it happens over time and nobody is effective is the only time that it comes into play. I've never heard an individual player use it as an excuse when he pitched poorly. you only see it when the entire pen is ineffective and no one has that role. It's not an excuse for failure individually as frequently you have players moved in an out. It's just that when you have effective bullpens they need to have confidence in their role. When everyone is pitching poorly there is no confidence anywhere. Do you have confidence and go pitch well or do you have to pitch well before you have confidence. There is a little of both to make an effective pitcher and an effective staff. I haven't heard the players say it either, but it comes up around here constantly NOT as a byproduct (as you described), but as some sort of solution. Such as caulfield's post that spawned my original tantrum: QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 09:46 AM) We're on our fourth closer of the season already, essentially. Jones, Lindstrom, Belisario and now ??? (Guerra/Petricka). If you go with the "hot hand," how many blown saves do they get to prove they're not the hot hand? There's just no way that this strategy, with the talent we have remaining in our pen (or lack thereof), is going to yield anything close to an 80-85% save conversion rate. Who would even be the "hot hand" now? Petricka? Putnam? Guerra? They each have their own unique set of pro's and con's. The ONLY time the pen was working well was when Putnam knew he was the 7th inning guy, Belisario 8th and Lindstrom 9th. If you keep changing their roles every night, it just won't work very effectively. Bullpens need to have consistency and established roles...defined expectations. The solution to our bullpen issues is to have better players, not to find a mystical order in which to line our current players up.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 06:00 PM) You will only see this when the bullpen is ineffective. An effective bullpen will have the defined roles. With the way they are pitching now it doesn't matter what you do. Right, because they're getting people out. When they fail though, "well I need a defined role" isn't an excuse. That's my point. You can't have a defined role when you can't be relied upon.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 04:15 PM) I think Ventura charted it out well: Daryl Van Schouwen @CST_soxvan · 6h Relivers like having defined roles. "I'm sure they do,'' Ventura said. 'But the role is when you come in get some outs. It's pretty simple.' Boom

Yeah, I guess I just expect more out of them mentally. I'm not saying it's easy, but that's why they make so much money. If they can't stay mentally prepared because they've sucked so much as a group that their roles are in flux, it's a knock on them, not on the manager.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) Yes, they have a greater chance to injure their arms. They are not like bench players who know they will pinch hit if a lefty comes in (although that is defined as well). Pitchers in the pen will not be as effective if they aren't mentally prepared to go in. Then they should be mentally prepared to go in.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) I'm no expert, but I always thought that to the SABRE guys, " a run is a run" no matter when it comes. I think you do need your best reliever, and certainly the one able to get the K, when you have runners on in late innings. You don't need your best for a clean 9th. That said, I also believe (and the SABRE guys disagree) that there is more pressure in the 9th and that some pitchers simply spit the bit in the 9th Run sequencing is crucial for maximizing productivity and thus maximizing wins. When you hear guys say "a run is a run," they're referring to the fact that stats that are the product of run sequencing isn't predictable, so if you're trying to rate a guy based on how many runs he's likely to produce, you want to treat it like "a run is a run" because we can't expect previous sequencing to repeat itself. That's one of the reasons SABR guys don't like RBI.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 04:05 PM) but that's not what they do. They start with the stretching and therband work well before they begin to throw other wise no one would be ready for over an inning once they are called. It's not like they do nothing until they call to the pen. Good, they're professional athletes. They should be ready to play during games, just like other bench players. My point is it isn't like they blow their arms throwing to prepare.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 01:47 PM) When your role is "pitcher" and you are doing it for fun because you want to and you are unpaid regardless of performance, and when you have really no pressure and play in an environment where stats don't matter... it's very different. I need a routine to get my ass out bed in the morning and start the day. I think so do most people. You also need a role pretty much anywhere, and if your "role" is more of a jack-of-all-trades type or something where you do a lot of different things and make different types of decisions, you at least need to be able to identify what your strengths and weaknesses are so you know what you can or should do and what ou should have someone else do. It's not realistic to be able to plan every single inning of every single day out for a RP. If "be ready to pitch between 8 and 10 on game days" is too much for someone to handle, they don't belong in the major leagues. If children can do it for fun, the world's best adults should be able to do it for millions of dollars.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 11:15 AM) whether you think it or not it's reality. There is a big difference as to when to pitch. In the ninth there is no safety net, you pitch poorly the team loses. If you pitch in the 8th there is always a chance you can come back with offense. Picture if you worked for an insurance company and you have auto clients. You mess up ona couple of bad policies and you lose a few thousand dollars. Now let's say you handle flood insurance in a coastal region and messed up the re-insurance when Katirna hit. Same job different pressure. Pitchers also like defined role for the comfort and confidence. All players need this as it's a game of dealing with failures. when you are in a comfort zone it's easier to deal with these failures. Remember when Frank Thomas was blasted because he didn't want to screw up is pregame routine and the Sox wanted to change it to allow fans into batting practice early? All baseball players do this and need this. whether you agree or not, this is the mentality of the MLB player. Now some rare ones are mentality strong enough not to deal with it. However, nearly all of them need this routine to be comfortable. How do you know this? It's an excuse. None of us "needed" this in little league, High School, or American Legion when I played. We all did just fine.