Eminor3rd

The Dodgers did it once, it was locking up their own guy, and it was at a rate that doesn't stop them from doing anything else. The White Sox have just done it twice with Hendriks and Kimbrel, and it was acquiring another team's guy at peak value, and they have something like a quarter of their payroll tied into it. I'll admit that you found an exception that doesn't quite fit the mold I laid out for success, but I don't think it disproves the general rule, and I think the Sox (in this manner, buying bullpen pieces at peak value in lieu of other upgrades) look more like the Rockies two years ago with their strategy than they look like the Dodgers. But I do agree with the need to put the pedal down. I'm not asking for them not to be aggressive, I just see them repeatedly being aggressive in ways that don't feel like the best choice available.

If you look at fraction of payroll, that's not really true. As far as the second sentence goes -- yeah, I guess I'm just noticing that this is looking more and more like a short window of contention with each transaction that's made, and maybe I just need time to come to terms with that.

I just, I don't know... It's a lot of money tied up in a lot of short-term, high risk value. The only other team in recent history that decided to dump this much money into the back-end of their bullpen is the fucking Rockies, and we're dumping money AND player talent into it. I think there's a good reason that the progressive teams sell off good bullpen pieces every year and seem to find a way to make new ones out of thin air. There are methods for maximizing raw stuff, but these guys typically don't have enough tricks to make it last very long. I know Kimbrel has made a whole career of it, but he also looked completely destroyed for the two season prior to this. Once again, the Sox are making an upgrade, but doing it in a very inefficient way with a fiscal policy that doesn't have much room for inefficiency. I just hope it works.

My hot take is that I don't like this. I don't think Kimbrel is AT ALL a guarantee to be good for the next year and a half. Heuer was a good bet to bounce back based on his FIP/xFIP, meaning this very well may not be AS MUCH of an upgrade as the name value indicates.

What the f

In this case, the price is going to be determined by the number of serious suitors, not the free agent market value of his contract.

You can’t shut him down because you have no one else who can pitch.

Preller does his job like we all play OOTP.

I get that, but the net is that they look like the most talented team in the league, and with several years left in the window. I don't think any Padre fans anywhere are feeling any stress from losing the Snell trade.

Yeah I think you're in the minority. Also, I don't think any of those 20 flourishing prospects will be Tatis, lol.

Yes, I believe you're arguing with someone who agrees with you.

Yes, Frazier (bigger) and Story (splashier).

If you wanted this upgrade to be bigger and splashier, you probably don't realize how empty the farm system has become. For what the team could afford to give up, a random live arm and taking on a contract, this is the type of upgrade that was available. And, it IS an upgrade, even if it isn't a massive one.

Read the rest of the sentence.

I've always liked this guy, was very underrated with the Phillies. It does seem like he's declined a bit, but he's a good OBP who has found some power, and his numbers this year have been dragged down by a low BABIP, so there's room for the right kind of regression. This is a good pickup IMO.

Well it didn't happen, but it had legs, haha: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/padres-rangers-discussing-scenarios-involving-eric-hosmer-joey-gallo.html

Weird?

The problem is if the Sox have to give up something significant for Story, then it still would have been better to get Escobar.

This is brutal

And it should be noted that Heuer, Bummer, and Crochet have substantially higher ERAs than FIP/xFIP, particularly the first two.

Why not? The Padres are already trying to get Gallo, right? The Rangers certainly have the payroll space and the ABs to give up between 1B and DH.

You know what -- I think I see it, actually. Hosmer, the bulk of his contract, and a boatload of prospects to the Rangers for Joey Gallo.

Trading MLB relievers for other MLB relievers would be a really sad and bad deadline strategy.

Hosmer's only value, at this point, is to an early-stage rebuilder, with 1B ABs to spare, who can take his contract to get some prospects along with it.

That's probably true, which is why I imagine the Diamondbacks are taking all the time they can to shop around. I bet he'll move for about what we expect within a day of the deadline.