Eminor3rd

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3389796/seiya-suzuki-is-japans-latest-baseball-star-and-he-might-be-coming-stateside-this-winter

Looks like righties have been able to bust him inside this year, but not lefties. Can't see any other major weakness. Strange that they've continued to work him middle-out all year from both sides.

It's REALLY difficult to guess, IMO, because we still don't even have a "normal" market back yet, you know? And that's before we consider the work stoppage that is probably going to happen. In my head, if we assume we'll see something resembling a normal free agent market, I'm thinking something like the first Abreu contract. I think evaluators in the game know that he's a cut or two above the Tsutsugoh class, but I also know for a fact that some teams (I wish I knew precisely how many) are almost literally give a hard pass to all NPB bats, period, because they find it confounding to try to evaluate their skills against what is just really different pitching, and so they consider them too risky. So I think it'll be one of those situations where a few teams will REALLY believe in him, but the market isn't robust enough to really drive it super high. Traditionally, that's where the White Sox like to strike -- where JR can feel like he's getting a bargain because Hahn and Co have an eval that is higher than consensus, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope? But I'm just guessing. SO many massive factors will affect the pace and size of the free agent market this winter.

No, he is considered an above average outfielder and has one of the most feared OF arms in the league. This would be a SOLUTION to the problem.

I don't think it's likely either, because, quite frankly, the Sox have completely failed to build the relationships and make the necessary investments to be competitive in Asia. And for whatever obscure, 1980s-business-man reason, they seem to be content having only a single pipeline to international talent.

Yes, and the MLB has managed to bully the NPB into progressively worse deals each time the term ends. It's actually resulted in less top talent being posted, as the teams just don't get enough incentive to part with their stars anymore. When it does happen, it's when the player really wants it and the team is willing to do them a favor -- which isn't as strange as it sounds given that, due to the fact that there's far less player movement in NPB, star players become very popular, long-term, with fans, and they often return to the organization as even bigger stars when they come back form the MLB. So it's a long-term relationship from the start in a way that just isn't the norm in US sports.

Thanks for digging that up. He's definitely not a international free agent at this time, so I believe the bullets at the end are how it will go if/when he's posted.

Suzuki has been a far more advanced hitter the entire time (understandably, with the whole pitching thing). Obviously Ohtani turned out to be a generational talent, but at the time Ohtani came to MLB, I don't think anyone thought he was a better hitter than Suzuki.

He only played 11 games for the top team in his rookie year, I don't think he's actually accrued enough service for international free agency. Also, filing for free agency is not NEARLY the "automatic" move that it is in MLB. There are no guaranteed salary contracts in NPB (though there are "personal services" contracts that serve as de facto free agency guarantees); every player essentially independently negotiates a raise every season, and the team can refuse to offer them a contract at any time. When a player is eligible to file for free agency for the first time, the expectation is nearly always that they try to come to a deal with their current team first, and only go to free agency if that fails. When that happens, it's generally considered to be a falling out between the two parties. As such, there are only ever a handful of free agents each season, and sometimes there are no difference makers at all. So, even if Suzuki was able to file for international free agency, it would be much more likely for both sides to amicably agree to posting as a parting. It's one of the reasons why the typical NPB "true free agent" is typically a past-his-prime star, because a lot of times those guys end up with big disagreements on salary.

Off the top of my head, there are... four domes? Tokyo dome (Giants), PayPay Dome (Hawks), Nagoya Dome (Lions, which, look that place up, it's actually an OUTDOOR dome. A concrete bowl but with open walls. It's supposedly just miserable -- hot and extremely humid in the summer, freezing and drafty in the winter), and Sapporo Dome (Fighters). The rest, I believe, are outdoors. Also, interestingly, NPB teams typically play 20 or so games a year in "regional" stadiums that are in their general region but far enough from the main city that those people don't get into see them play easily. IIRC, only a few of the teams actually own their stadiums, so the relationship between the teams and the place they play is more like an events contract, so there's more freedom to "tour," but also far fewer revenue streams. The trend is, unsurprisingly, team are moving more in the direction of building and owning their stadiums to make more money as time goes on.

An interesting question. Now that you mention it, I'm not sure there is even a currently active posting agreement. I might try to ask Jim Allen about that. Also, like so many other things, the potential of a prolonged work stoppage could ruin this.

Yeah, with the exception of Ohtani, this is definitely the most exciting hitter to be posted (assuming he is) in quite a while.

Superstar Carp RF Seiya Suzuki, long expected to be an eventual MLB player, is expected to be posted this offseason. He's having a monster, MVP-caliber platform season, fueled by an absolutely insane second half. Although they're currently in the midst of an improbable late season run that has brought them within shouting distance of third place (the NPB season doesn't end until the end of October this year because of the break they took for the Olympics), the Carp have been garbage for a few years now and don't look to be a threat any time soon, so it's an alright time to let him go. Logically, it seems like the perfect year to make the jump, and everyone I follow for news believes it will happen now. The basics: He is currently in his age 26 season. He is right-handed batter with a slender, athletic build on a fairly wide-shouldered frame. It's a corner OF-only profile, but he's considered an average or better defender with a well above-average arm. He's an incredibly complete hitter at the plate -- the overall package is a middle-of-the-order run producer, but he stole 25 bases as recently as 2019. Despite being a slugger, his batting average is over .300 every year. It is not a stretch to consider him a 5-tool player, even though speed isn't REALLY his game. A little deeper: His success is centered around his ELITE plate discipline. It gives him 400 OBPs every year, but that's mostly a by-product of what he's doing -- he forces pitchers to come into the zone and just abuses them when they do. The raw power is impressive, even though the bat speed (to my extremely untrained, unprofessional, and unqualified eye) doesn't seem to be elite. He makes up for the (perhaps) lack of elite bat speed by being VERY short to the ball and employing a whip-like follow-through that, combined with his coiled load and leg kick, I suspect generates the bulk of the power: He is one of three current NPB hitters (the other two being Masataka Yoshida and Munetaka Murakami) that I consider legitimate, high upside MLB hitting prospects. Historically, it's been significantly more difficult for hitters to transition to MLB than for pitchers, and so it's difficult to ever be completely confident, but as far as experienced, MLB ready hitters go, this guy is about as promising a prospect as there is in Japan. Questions/Concerns/Downsides/Risks: Am I right that the bat speed maybe isn't elite? Is the fact that he's an extremely advanced hitter something that bodes well for his ability to adjust, or does indicate a lack of remaining upside? He plays in the Central League, which is understood to be the weaker of the leagues in the current era (like the NL is weaker than the AL). It is of course rare for the White Sox to even dip their toes in the NPB market, but given the years-long hole in RF, it certainly could be fun to dream/speculate. Stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=suzuki001sei A random homer highlight comp:

I haven't been following the thread, but I just felt the need to point out how relentlessly I was shit on when this trade was made, for the audacity to suggest that, given the volatility of relievers, Codi Heuer could end up being more valuable than Craig Kimbrel over the remaining few months of the season, and because of that I thought it was a very short-sighted move. I just need to point it out. Please remember it the next time you want to call me a hater. Thank you for your time.

I think you'd be surprised to find out how much content gets removed, how many threads are locked, and how many suspensions quietly handed out each day/week around here. Ron has been the recipient of a lot of it. Moderation is best done as subtly as possible; it isn't supposed to create waves for people to rally for/against.

Lmao. And we give it right back, because we're not soft. We don't ban people for being weird and annoying sometimes.

Holy shit

Oh give me a break.

Wait, what did Buck say about Moncada? Also, Evan Williams has to love that ad break, lmao

For sure. We used to only have one Micker Adolfo, now we have ten. Stack enough up and a few will hit.

Feel free to donate for increased web hosting.

Murakami with that easy pop.

Tough to lose when a dude hits three homers and one is a grand slam

I know that a lot of what I'm about to type is NOT what you're saying -- I don't mean to put words in your mouth. But some thoughts and reactions for the sake of the entire conversation: - When people rail against the bunt, they are railing against the sacrifice bunt. The bunt-for-hit is an entirely different animal, and no significant group of people has an issue with it if it's used in a situation where it has a good chance to be successful. - It's easy to say you love something when it works, and easy to ignore it in the much more frequent instances when it doesn't. Cesar was only safe because Jose Ramirez made a throwing error. Ramirez probably only makes that error because the pitcher almost ran him over. If you ran that same play ten times, Cesar is certainly out more often than he is safe, and probably by a large margin. - People hate the sacrifice bunt because it leads to fewer runs in almost every situation. Very few people disagree that smallball is fun, but what's even more fun is winning games. Generally speaking, people want the team to do the thing that makes them most likely to win. - Even ignoring the lowered run expectancy of a typical sacrifice bunt, there is a significant rate of failure in even making the bunt play. I watch a ton of Japanese baseball, and they bunt probably literally ten times more often than MLB. They are also WAY better at executing the bunt, and even they fail (pop-up, foul out, lead runner cut down, etc.) a shockingly high percentage of the time -- like probably 20% of the time. It is significantly more likely that the batter will fail to execute the bunt than it is that the defense will fail to record the out. All of the above said, I didn't have any issue with Cesar's bunt. He did it because he thought it was the best way to get on base, he thought the defense wasn't ready, and he figured the sac bunt situation was the worst case result. I don't think it was a bad play all. But it doesn't make any sense to take an instance where a bunt works and try to apply it to an argument about bunting in general, outside of context. All of the above stands despite Cesar's bunt being a good play; don't take a good bunt and use it to argue in support of bad bunts.

Absolutely not.