Eminor3rd

The problem with this line of thinking is that there simply aren't REMOTELY enough examples of hitters that have made the transition to be able to generalize like you are. Suzuki is way better and, more importantly, WAY different than Tsutsugoh, even when Tsutsugoh was in his prime -- simply the fact that they both hit thirty-plus homers is not enough to compare them. It would be like saying Fernando Tatis and Pete Alonso are similar because they both hit thirty-plus homers this year. There's reason to be skeptical, yes, but the only way to project is to use scouting and evaluate the players as individuals -- which maybe we can't do well from where we are, but the conclusion should be uncertainty, not pessimism. Or, put another way, the skepticism should come from our lack of ability to draw a clear conclusion, not from a sloppy conclusion we DID draw from a lack of data. Also, there are some small parks in Japan (Jingu, Tokyo Dome, Yokohama), but there are just as many cavernous, pitcher friendly stadiums (Sapporo, Chiba, Nagoya). Homerun numbers are not inflated over there at a league-level. Finally, I think it's important to point out that, contrary to what I think most people believe, the players that get posted by NPB are RARELY the best players in the league. They are invariably GOOD players relative to the league (nearly always past their primes), but NPB teams work hard to keep their superstars. The reason that Seiya is so intriguing because this is the first time since Hideki Matsui that a player is posted that is arguably the best overall hitter in the league. I think you can make a case that Masataka Yoshida and Munetaka Murakami might be better overall hitters or prospects, but it wouldn't a definitive one, and neither of those guys just had the season that Seiya did. I can tell you that, for sure, how Seiya fares will have a major affect on how I evaluate the hitters in Japan for years to come, because we simply haven't been able to see someone like him, in his prime, take a real shot at it... really since Ichiro. Even Matsui was significantly older and clearly out of his athletic prime when he made the jump (he used to play CF, if you can believe it). It's going to be interesting.

Clip of one of the Carp oeundan's Seiya songs, complete with alternating rising and sitting, lol: I remember seeing this in person when I went over there to see some games in... 2016? It's a pretty arresting effect from far away (our seats were pretty far up behind home plate).

Jim Allen updated his profile page for Seiya, very in-depth as always: https://jballallen.com/guess-whos-coming-to-dinner/profile-seiya-suzuki/

Scott Boras is a very successful, very sleazy, salesman. He will say anything to maximize his earnings, just as the owners will do for their own. There are no white knights here. There is no wisdom being expressed, only marketing.

Yeah right

I just want to say thanks for considering this perspective.

If you're going to quote a post, please don't ignore the entire conversation before it. The whole discussion has been predicated on the conditional that Rodon isn't injured.

The fact that they decided they could only have one is precisely the issue.

If they know he's hurt or broken, this decision is correct -- and time will tell. My fear is that it's more that they didn't feel like they could tie $18m up into a guy who, despite tremendous upside, isn't a slam dunk to give them 150 innings, and if that's the case, it might still be the correct move, but it's also a sign that they're probably about to cry poor again this offseason.

The only way that the Rodon QO decision wasn't the dumbest decision the White Sox FO has made in years is if Rodon needs offseason surgery.

I hated the trade, and was not shy about it at the time. But you have to remember that the winning bid on free agents is the HIGHEST bid. It's really difficult to imagine that the winning bid for Kimbrel wouldn't be a multi-year deal. 2/20, 3/36? There's value there. I think 1/8 is just way off. Though if you think 1/8 is it, then I can see why you wouldn't like it.

No it isn't, unless you're prepared to make an argument that Kimbrel projects as an asset worth significantly less than 1/$16m on the market.

True

I can’t see giving Rodon more than a two-year deal, even if you like him. I could imagine some team caves and goes three years to be the winner. QO will def drive down the AAV if he goes elsewhere

Didn’t need another right handed dh last time he was available, don’t need one this time either.

I see what you're saying, but with Rodon and Cease as question marks going into 2021, it should have appeared that there were certainly roles to be had. I admit it's hard to remember what a total lottery ticket Rodon was, but he was almost in MiLB deal territory. There was no chance Kopech was going to be a starter in 2021, and Lopez looked cooked. Now, with Cease established, Lopez looking better, and Kopech probably ready to take a shot at the rotation, it may be tougher to make that case this year.

Charlie Morton, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Rick Porcello, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, Anthony Desclafani, Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray, Mike Fiers, Martin Perez, JA Happ, Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, Chase Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Archer, Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Corey Kluber, Trevor WIlliams, Mike Foltynewicz, Collin McHugh, Matt Moore, Jose Urena, Tyler Anderson, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Sam McWilliams all signed one year MLB deals going into the 2021 season, and their ultimate contributions ranged from "minor bullpen piece" to "All-Star starter." It's hard not to use hindsight to rate them all now, but going into the season, you could easily imagine any one of them being all-stars or ending up in the bullpen. I believe the Sox absolutely should have signed AT LEAST one of those guys, maybe two. If two is too rich, Ivan Nova, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Tyson Ross, Julio Teheran, Tommy Milone, Jefry Rodriguez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Wade LeBlanc all signed minor league deals -- and you can't tell me that the White Sox situation wasn't one where there was a good chance for those guys to get a real shot, so it would be hard to believe that those guys wouldn't want to take a deal in Chicago because of the DC. Before you say it: yes, many of those ended up commanding more than $10mm. That doesn't change the point; none of them commanded over $15mm, which shouldn't be a meaningful difference for the White Sox at this juncture, given their current payroll and position on the win curve.

Right, that's one way they accomplish it. I just think it's frustrating that it's been pretty well established that their style of pitching depth is highly associated with winning for nearly ten years now, and the White Sox are still willing to go "all in" with 3.5 starters and a prayer. And while it isn't fair to expect any team to spend like the highest spending team, I would argue there's a GULF of difference between the Dodgers excess and what the White Sox have done. I mean, try to remember how insane it was to have penciled in both Rodon (who was a TOTAL lottery ticket) AND Dylan Cease (who was not at ALL established). Both those things worked out, but neither was likely to work out, and a couple $8-10mm dollar one year deals could have substantially mitigated the risk. Even if you could convince me their scouting was able to see something that made it likelier those guys would do what they did, it's hard to make an argument not to buy the insurance policy nonetheless.

There's margin for error in the division for sure, but again I think the consequence here is being in shape to play in October. I think, in addition to they're "planned 5," they need to acquire at least a couple veteran 4/5 starter types that aren't too precious to be shuttled into the bullpen for stretches as necessary. Ideally, there's also one or two more Reynaldo Lopez's they've developed in AAA, ready to fight for a long-term spot two or three times a year. Obviously you can't just make that appear in one offseason, but I think that's the model that teams like the Dodgers and Rays have demonstrated is the way to use depth to reduce the randomness of the season and provide options going into the postseason.

Well, I expect the answer is that they compiled a lot more useful depth. I don't have the encyclopedic knowledge of every contenders roster I used to have years ago to be able to list a convincing number of examples, so I'm more out on a limb than I normally like to be, but one quick interesting thing that might be a proxy for this: The White Sox had nine (9) different pitchers record a start in 2021, the Dodgers had nineteen (19). I imagine this represents the extreme end of differences, but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are near or at the bottom in that number, probably in the whole league. Also, it was always crazy to expect Rodon to be a workhorse all year; even if you assumed health, he simply hasn't carried that kind of workload for too long, if ever.

This team still needs starting pitching very badly. Last year's gambles, essentially, went as well as they possibly could have gone (Lynn and Rodon both having literal ceiling, career years and losing minimal time to injury), but even then we could see how gassed the staff was by the time the playoffs rolled around. You can't bet on that kind of luck again and you can't expect Keuchel to be anything more than a 5th starter at this point -- so the White Sox REALLY need to address it this offseason.

FWIW, I've read he made some significant mechanical changes that allowed him to unlock much more consistent command. I wish I could say I saw it but Giants games are really hard to watch, so I didn't. It isn't hard to imagine that Vieira's raw stuff with improved command could be overwhelming in the NPB<,simply because that type of pitcher is so rare over there, but I don't think it NECESSARILY means it'll translate back to the MLB. But he did have a hell of a year. He broke Ohtani's record for the fastest pitch recorded in NPB history, and he also set some kind of record for consecutive scoreless innings/appearances.

Lol, I sincerely apologize to have affected you so much to have you try to drag the argument you invented into a second thread. You seem to have a habit of projecting some sort of adversarial argument onto other people's conversations, regardless of how unrelated they are to the one happening in your head. I can't imagine that does anything but cause more stress for you. So, you have my sympathy, but I'm not going to spend time defending arguments you've made up on my behalf, lol.

Imagine not even being able to read the six or so sentences of the post you responded to find out I don't even think he's terrible, lmao. What a waste of time it must be to argue with people about things they don't even believe.

Some actual new info in this one, regarding advanced metrics on defense and contract guess of 4/32: