Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:30 PM) How many players have a bad avg. bad obp bad OPS but are good with the advanced and vice versa? I would say the answer is very few, and it would be those who add extraordinary amounts of value on defense and on the basepaths QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:30 PM) What should it matter if Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 wins in 2012 or 1.4? What matters is his next AB. You're totally right, but these numbers we're talking about don't attempt to do that just like BA and OPS don't attempt to do that. It's totally fair to want to be able to use a stat to predict the future, but that doesn't have anything to do with wOBA being a more precise and accurate measure of value than OPS, because those are all descriptive statistics.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:29 PM) Well that's odd, because there's a team out there that's a game back from a playoff spot and 4.5 back from the division lead that has splits of .197/.261/.382/.643 from their DH slot this year, and I know OPS is only for cave men but there's enough of a reference point here and that it says "they suck even if they played against a 12 man defense so I am going to post the OPS because suck it!" Of course, I am talking about the Orioles. Indeed. The Orioles are an example of a team that could get a ton of value from Adam Dunn if the Sox picked up some of that salary. The Rays could, too, but you;d have to assume that you;d need to pick up nearly all of the salary, and anyway they might still get nervous because of the whole Pat Burrell thing, lol.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) I don't buy that today's advanced stats have settled anything. I'd bet money in five or ten years, there will be another generation of new stats to replace the current crop and fix all of the biases and bugs in the one's today. At the end of the day, all of the numbers are going to have some level of bias built in, if for no other reason, than what does the person who created them feel is important. In baseball, there is no one right answer for that question. All of these numbers tell a story. But that's the very nature of knowledge! In ten years, we may discover something about quantum physics that makes Newton's laws obsolete, but that doesn't change the fact that Newton's laws are currently the best and most useful set of axioms with which to explain and predict physical reality. Numbers aren't biased themselves, but use of them certainly can be. You're right that they all tell a different story and have different uses. What I'm trying to say is this: 1. wOBA/wRC+ are precisely the correct numbers to answer the questions about net offensive value that people are asking about Adam Dunn. 2. OPS attempts to do the same thing, but is way worse at it. Like there isn't a situation where OPS would be a better measure of anything than wOBA/wRC+. I think batting average, for example, is a more useful stat because at least there isn;t a clearly better analog that tells you the exact same thing as batting average.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) So if you look at his advanced numbers, and his outdated OPS numbers, even with all his strikeouts, and all his home runs, Adam Dunn in each circumstance comes out at about an average to slightly better than average DH. Teams don't pay those guys $15 million a year if they have a choice, let alone give you something of value for the opportunity. Agreed. Adam Dunn probably only has value to someone if the Sox pick up substantial money. A team with a really bad 1B or DH would, for example, probably be willing to pay an Adam Dunn $7m or so.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) I don't like picnics, I want to have pool party Sounds like someone needs to start a poll thread!

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) You know that Eminor is gonna blow a gasket if you keep quoting these primitive OBP and SLG numbers, correct? Haha I'm not going to blow a gasket, I'm just frustrated because there's so much disagreement on Dunn's production because he's so good at some things and so bad at others. The arguments are really good and important ones, except that someone already came up with a way to settle them and I want people to know that they are available so we can all agree and have a picnic together in the parking lot at USCF

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) What was his wRC+ last year? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...;position=1B/OF 115, average DH was 113.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) Yes, and the difference between OPS and the more advanced saber-stats is that while OPS does not tell the whole story, it's still a rate stat easy to compute and understand, along the same vein as AVG. I'm still a little bit leery of using stuff like WAR and RC, because once you start making adjustments for things like park factor and such, you are introducing some margin of error. Then wOBA is just for you! No league or park adjustment, just straight linear weights calculated from run environment.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) But at least for now, we're mentally calibrated on OPS. I know what a .900 OPS hitter is doing, I know what an .800 OPS hitter is doing, I know what a .700 hitter is doing, I know what a .600 OPS hitter was doing. When I quote those numbers, everyone knows roughly what that hitter is doing without me defining the standard. If you post RC+, great, but you have to calibrate me in the same post, I'm just not set on it yet. Fair criticism! For wRC+, league average is always set to 100, and each point represents a 1% deviation. So, Adam Dunn's wRC+ is currently 110, meaning he is hitting 10% better than league average. Shockingly, 2013 DH's are averaging a just 107 wRC+ so far. This number is park-adjusted. wOBA works more like slash stats. It is scaled to be roughly equal to OBP, so if you're trying to judge a good or bad wOBA, ask yourself how you'd judge it if it was OBP. Adam Dunn's wOBA this year is .339, which you can compare directly to other players without the context of league average or park adjustment or whatever.

OPS drives me nuts more than AVG. Because if you quote OPS you're "trying" to be "more advanced" while using a stat that the sabermetric community abandoned as obsolete like 10 years ago. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again: wOBA and wRC+ weigh everything a player does at the plate with precise values that correspond directly to the amount of runs each adds or subtracts in today's run environment. They are the perfect numbers for settling this debate over whether or not Adam Dunn is good because homers or bad because strikeouts. Use these numbers that tell you mathematically which of them has a larger affect on his value! When John Thorn invented OPS like 500 years ago he immediately pointed out that it was flawed because it doesn't properly weigh the difference between avoiding outs and moving runners. wOBA and wRC+ do! And wRC+ is even park and league-adjusted.

QUOTE (mike65 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:22 AM) As a Cardinal fan, I hope you are correct. I would love for the Cardinals to get Ramirez but I don't even get the sense that it is being discussed. I have seen some rumors about Asdrubal Cabrera but none connecting Ramirez and the Cardinals. As to your second point, any trade this time of year will be somewhat costly. If the Cardinals and White Sox do ever trade, the cost will be partially determined by how much of the Ramirez salary the Cardinals are willing to assume. The Asdrubal Cabrera thing is confusing to me because the Indians are totally in contention right now. But yeah, I hear people talking about it too.

He threw two scoreless innings. Everyone else threw one scoreless inning each. It's not like some huge snub or anything -- two really nice plays by Miguel Cabrera of all people as well saved a couple hits.

He's got the "playoff hero" thing going for him though

While I don't think there's any chance at signing Choo at all, I think the idea of signing short-term deals on reclamation projects is precisely the route the Sox should take in 2014. It's essentially a shot in the dark at contending without hampering the 2015 plans.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:36 PM) I like Trevor Story an awful lot. Don't think he can be had for Crain though. I don't know -- I think it's a possibility. Story, I believe, has taken a step back this year, and there's no doubt he's blocked by Tulo/Rutledge.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 03:06 PM) If I'm buying, I'd much rather have Peavy than Garza. Both for this season and when you factor in the contracts. Two different tiers of pitcher IMO. I agree and I would be willing to bet that most teams do as well. I just don't think anyone considers Peavy a real option until he returns healthy,

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) Great post. That's all I want. Fans to blame Robin some. I like Robin. I have no problem with him continuing as manager. But his staff has failed miserably this season. That's OK. I don't want him to be fired. I'm just laughing because if the former manager had orchestrated this first half ... wow, he'd be run out of town. This team looks like it is managed by Andy the Clown, God rest Andy's soul. The big difference that you are not mentioning, Greg, is that Ozzie was a total cancer to the clubhouse and front office. He was making headlines with controversial remarks about the players and the administration on a regular basis, and dividing the roster into favored and unfavored camps. When players were asked about his antics, they consistently replied cautiously with veiled non-answers that clearly implied that he was a distraction. Absolutely NONE of this is true about RV. I'm not saying that RV is awesome, but he is doing nothing to suggest that he is a negative force on this bad team. I'm not trying to suggest that RV deserves none of the blame -- he is, after all, a part of this team. But I can't point to anything that suggests he is a bigger part of the failure than any starting player, and that was just not true about Ozzie.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) I can't imagine them doing that. It sounds like Cubs are trying to get Neftali Feliz instead (Tom Loxas reporting). If they get Feliz and Olt for Garza, that's an amazing trade for the Cubs. Since when is Garza this great pitcher?? No way they get both of those guys -- but while Garza is not a great pitcher, he's the best guy available right now by a fair amount. Supply & demand. This is why we need Peavy to 2-hit the #Barves this weekend.

I predict Alexei ends up with the Cardinals and we get next to nothing back. Just a feeling.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) I think Olt ends up going to the Cubs as part of the package for Garza. I don't think Olt is a good fit there -- they've got Baez and Bryant as long-term 3B guys, and Rizzo locked up at first. Can't have too much depth, sure, but I'd think they would prefer a different type of guy.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:19 PM) Yeah, Olt's stock has fallen, for sure, but that just serves to make him plausibly attainable for us. He's always been overrated, but he profiles as a solid contributor on both sides of the ball for years to come. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR agrees with me. P.S. which on of you asked this question, lol?

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 09:54 PM) Are we thinking of the same player? Barnum is another high power, low contact hitter for now. I went back and read some of the online scouting reports, and you're right -- I'm not sure why I had the impression that his hit tool was better than the rest of our guys.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:19 PM) Dunn supplanting Pacheco in Colorado could make sense if the Rockies are going to try to make a run for it. I don't think they are though. Dunn at Coors Field... It would make sense, but I think their focus is justifiably almost completely on pitching first.

Yeah, Olt's stock has fallen, for sure, but that just serves to make him plausibly attainable for us. He's always been overrated, but he profiles as a solid contributor on both sides of the ball for years to come.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 12:03 PM) Robin definitely deserves plenty of blame. But with 2012 and 2013 being such divergent stories, I don't think we'll really know who he is as a manager until he plays out at least part of 2014, when he will inevitably have a very different roster. How can you say that definitively? I'm not trying to challenge you, I just want to know what people are looking at when they are deciding that RV is the reason this team is losing. Because to me, it's because they suck at hitting and defense. Is RV not requiring them to practice hitting and defense? If that's the case, then sure, but otherwise, I think the players are just f***ing sucking. All his pitching change problems combined don't add up to be nearly the problem than the team offense right now.