Eminor3rd

I mean, technically, we could win out.

The way that whole post was laid out was legitimately funny. It reminded me of the first couple times South Park did the Loch Ness Monster/Tree-Fiddy bit. Each time, there has to be more build up -- a bunch of content that seems plausible implying a return to contention with a few simple acquisitions and then - WHAM - awwww it was that gol-durned GRADY SIZEMORE again askin to be a legitimate middle of the order threat! I'm like GET OUTTA HEAH YOU DANG GRADY SIZEMORE WE AINT GIVIN YOU NO $3.5M TO BE ON THE DL

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 22, 2013 -> 10:28 AM) The Sox aren't often in a position where they are looking to trade one of the most in demand pitcher in a given market. The offers for him should be good enough to trade him. Strike while the iron is hot. Yeah, the market is very good right now for Peavy. I think we could get a top 50, considering at least three teams will be bidding after Garza moves.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jul 22, 2013 -> 07:20 AM) This complete rebuild strategy is interesting, however the organization does not have enough near ready talent in its farm system to completely rebuild a contender, any time soon. What it does have is a lot of pretty good pitching depth. This season is a lost cause, but why couldn't they add a couple of pieces, and put together a pretty solid contender for next year? A starting staff of Sale, Peavey, Santiago, Quintana and Danks does represent an unusually left handed weighted rotation, but it would be pretty solid. Erik Johnson and Axelrod could provide some depth. The reliever core has been very good, and they could piece together another effective bullpen for next season. Therefore, why not use the money coming off the books for Konerko, and Thornton to acquire a solid left handed bat, and try to add another good right handed hitter? The offensive problem with this team is that they have not had a good middle of the order. Two decent hitters, one right and the other left handed, to replace Konerko and Dunn, in the middle of the order, could vastly improve the offense. Dunn probably can't be traded, and with only one year left, after this season, it shouldn't be a big issue, as long as he doesn't have to hit in the middle of the order. He could actually be sufficiently productive, batting lower in the order. Hey, I'd take 40 homers and 100 RBI's from the 6TH or 7TH hitter in the order, wouldn't you, even if he can't hit over .200 and has an OBP under .350 ? Move de Aza to left field, and bat him lower in the order. His OBP is not high enough for a lead off hitter. Another possibility would be to trade him. Trade Ramirez for a legitimate leadoff hitter, who is a good defensive SS, and hopefully cheaper than the $9.5 Million he will cost next year. They may have to include another player in the trade, but even a veteran would be fine, until Anderson is ready, some time around 2015. Dump Keppinger and his contract, and go with Gillaspie and Morel at 3RD, perhaps platooned. Keep Beckham, and hope that Micah Johnson will be ready when Gordon starts making the big money. Rios is fine until some of the young outfielders are ready. Maybe Hawkins, Jacobs or Thompson can replace him, but not for a couple more years. Gillaspie is a good fit at 3RD, at least against RHP. He's young enough to still be around for the rebuild after next season. Let Phegley and Flowers fight it out for the catching slot. Viciedo is big question. If he's not ready to be a big offensive contributor, they have got to replace him with someone who is. Find a productive hitting Centerfielder (did I hear someone whisper Grady Sizemore? Shhh, it wasn't me) Sign another middle of the order hitter, probably to replace Paulie at 1B. Kendry Morales comes to mind and is a switch hitter. His home run production would likely rise at the Cell. One possible Lineup: SS New defensive and decent OBP acquisition 2B Beckham RF Rios CF True middle of the order, left handed hitter (Grady Sizemore) 1B Another prototypical middle of the order hitter. Kendry Morales would work, and is a switch hitter. DH Dunn/Viciedo platoon C Phegley 3B Gillaspie/Morel platoon LF De Aza or Viciedo If there are better choices than Sizemore and Morales, fine. The concept is to keep the contender ready pitching, and acquire the middle of the order offense, required to compete. If you sign two middle of the order hitters and trade for the lead off hitter/SS, it looks realistically feasible to me. Hahaha I thought the Grady Sizemore thing was finally over.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 22, 2013 -> 01:42 AM) I said all along a Peavy and Rios to Tx deal was what I was looking for but i wanted a boatload back . Profar and Martin but thats never going to happen but its very workable. Cards are workable but Adams is what I want. Lynn's been terrible lately . Bostons scraping the bottom of the barrel now and trying to pretend their pitching spects can perform well enough but I don't buy it. I think they'd part with Middlebrooks and/or Ingelsias who's performed well for them but MiL track record is no hit all field and they have a better SS prospect than him any way. I have two problems with this paragraph: 1. There's nothing even close to "workable" about Profar+Martin. That's so far off the charts that it doesn't even warrant discussion -- we could make a very successful trade with Texas that doesn't include those guys, which is good because we are not getting them. Sardinas would be a coup, for example. 2. I really, really don't want anything to do with Middlebrooks. The dude is a total hack who had a flukey half year who was just BOUND to implode, and did. There's no sign at all that his approach to hitting will give him sustained major league success. He strikes out 28% of the time and walks 4%. For a point of reference, Dayan Viciedo strikes out 21% of the time and walks 6%. Jose Iglesias has hit very well in limited action, but I'm still wary on him because he's really never hit well anywhere before in the minors. Maybe he's legit, but I'd have to see more success before I was comfortable with him as a centerpiece.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/andrew-bagg...plans-again-etc

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2013 -> 04:00 PM) If the White Sox don't get "too much" back for Addison Reed, who is young, effective, and years away from being expensive, then there's zero reason to trade him. If Reed is traded, people should say "man, why did that team give up that prospect for a closer". If that's not the reaction, then Reed should not be traded. Oh, definitely. I'm just saying that's why this isn't a good fit.

The problem with this is that Castellanos is too much for Reed, but the Tigers don't have anything else that's worth him.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 06:51 AM) Crain wouldn't be remotely close to enough. Cecchini is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. What? According to who?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 04:17 PM) I'll stop now. I can't get my point across. My final statement in regard to your post: I am saying NO PLAYER should get that kind of money. That owners should ASSUME the injury issues will happen or something will happen. I was trying to make the point that teams CONSTANTLY are trying to dump players almost immediately after signing them to huge contracts. My solution: DON'T SIGN THEM TO BIG CONTRACTS TO BEGIN WITH. Since I can't get my point across, I'll stop. The alternative is not having Matt Kemp BUT greg, there is evidence that teams are trying to avoid this by signing their young stars to long-term deals when they are still cheap. But there is a cost to this, too -- even more risk of ineffectiveness.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 03:40 PM) Just what Dick Allen is saying. It doesn't make much sense to move these two guys if the Sox have to pay that kind of money to get rid of them. Like that analysis said, they have no value. Lol greg

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 04:05 PM) No, I'm saying baseball inflation and insanity pays Kemp 22 million a year. I happen to think he should be paid about 7-8 million a year in today's prices. You really need to Google like "basic macroeconomics" or something before you make these claims. 1. Charging the most people will pay for a product is not price gouging, it's capitalism. McDonald's does it too. So does Best Buy. 2. Kemp makes $22m because that's how much money they needed to pay for him to agree to sign him. Free agent contracts happen because they accept the highest bid (or near it). You can't just say "this guy is worth 8 mil" and expect to get him. You have to pay the price that the market sets, which equals the hihgest amount that SOME team is willing to pay. No one decides this arbitrarily, it becomes an auction.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 03:37 PM) You say, 'then they invest the required money in players to keep their fans interested.' I'm saying fans would be more interested if they JUST SAY NO to mega, multi-year contracts for guys who fail miserably shortly after signing the contracts. When Adam Dunn is hitting about .160 and Rios is loafing after fly balls you start to wonder how much better life would be as a fan if they were not making all that money. Maybe I could park for 5 bucks and not spend 30 bucks on three beers in a nine-inning game. You say that like what is happening this season is going according to plan. Do you think the Yankees fans are okay with their 5 world championships over the past 15 years? Maybe not, they're currently experiencing the end part of some big contracts.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 02:35 PM) I just want to keep repeating it over and over and over until somebody notices! But I'm saying there should NOT be the demand. I keep reading about guys who are "untradeable." These guys are the ones fans and owners were drooling over shortly before they became untradeable. JUST SAY NO. Don't sign guys to long-term deals and maybe I can go sit in a box seat for 20 f***ing dollars and not have to pay 20 bucks to park!!!! And not pay 15 bucks for an All American hot dog and beer! Baseball was not invented as an elitist game, folks. That's not how economics work, Greg. The owners don't set prices based on what it takes to pay their players. They set prices at the maximum level people will pay (maximize revenue), and then they invest the required money in players to keep their fans interested (minimize cost) and remain profitable.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 01:46 PM) I just want to commend you on your patience and respect towards everyone in this thread. If all the proponents of advanced metrics handled these discussions the way you have, the chasm between the advanced metrics crowd and the old school folks would be far less contentious. Thanks! I heard Dave Cameron say once that when we criticize stats, we aren't criticizing the thought or intent behind them, just the way they measure it. We're all asking good questions, the hard part is finding the right way to answer those questions. Even RBI comes from a good idea -- who is the best run producer? It just is a very flawed way to measure run production if you want to ascertain true talent and likely performance going forward. So there's no reason to disrespect someone that wants to know about who the best run producers are -- I want to know that too! We're all on the same team here, lol

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) That's because HR are taken out of the equation in babip. I used the babip to mention if one makes more contact, they will get more hits. Chopping 40 or 50 ks off your total usually won't lead to the same amount of outs. Also, improving contact could lead to fouling pitches you would have missed off, making the pitcher work harder and lead to other things like walks and wild pitches or passed balls. Yes, good points, and you've reminded me of something that should probably be mentioned. Part of the idea of not trying to maximize contact at all costs is that while you gian strikeouts, you ALSO gain walks. Similar to how a K is a 100% out, a walk is a 100% base (obviously), so you theoretically optimize your on base percentage by taking the 70% chance of an out on contact away. But of course this does NOT work if you aren't taking walks, too. No one, not even saber guys, like hitter who are high-K, low on base guys Also, I'm not 100% sure on this, but I believe guys that take pitches rather than make contact actually make the pitcher work harder on average, though intuitively I can see it going either way (with the fouling off and such).

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 11:45 AM) The main thing is a strikeout is an out 99.9% of the time. If you hit the ball, what is the average BABIP? Chances are if someone cuts down their K rate significantly, their batting average and all that goes with that will go up, unless they are deemed unlucky. Which is something that really surprised be about the total saber guys who said a strikeout is an out like any other out. They are aware that not striking out is either getting HBP, walked or putting the ball in play, which ultimately results in less outs, and they are aware that outs do occassional advance runners. I think the extra hits gained, plus the occassional advancement of runners, the occassional errors, far outweigh the DP. You can't just compare a strikeout to a regular out, because you don't make outs everytime you don't strikeout. Your hypothesis makes a lot of sense, and it is one held by many. However, when they went and actually looked at the expected runs from all of the base/out states and factored in how often each occurs, the difference (again, on average) was very small. So, bringing us back to the purpose of these stats, it makes perfect sense NOT to consider context when comparing two players that did not receive the same opportunities. League average BABIP tends to be around .300, though power hitters tend to have lower BABIPs because they hit a lot of fly balls. Ground balls have higher BABIPs than fly balls, liners have the highest. Dunn's BABIP this year is .233.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 11:38 AM) Owings is my top target. Idgaf what happens as long as he joins us. Would love to get him, would love Sardinas more.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 11:19 AM) Tulo needs to stop getting hurt. And if we do extend Kershaw it's gonna be for over $200 million, I'd rather keep Sale for a year or two less for $160 millions less. The thing about Tulo though, is that none of his injuries are nagging or project to be long-term. It's not completely unreasonable to assume a lot of it has been bad luck. Wrist broken by a pitch, for example. Kershaw is 25, has universally lauded mechanics, and is the best pitcher in the game. He's the type of guy you are fine paying market value for, especially in a mid-to-large market.

High-end positional talent.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 11:28 AM) I'll be honest, I sort of selfishly wish we could keep Peavy...he's been one of the few bright spots on this lifeless team. I like him too, but it's time to make room for some new guys. This group just isn't working.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 12:44 AM) I never said anyone was an idiot. Strikeout with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs is really bad. Most other situations it does not hurt you anymore than a different kind of out would. There are many people on this board who know a hell of a lot more about advanced metrics than I do by the way but I'll be the saber god if you want me to be. Also, strikeout with 1 out and a runner on first is GOOD compared to anything on the ground when you're slow AND they are shifting on you. What's better and worse depends on the situation. The negative run values attached to outs are based on the average of all possible situations. Overall, on average, a strikeout is just slightly worse than a typical ball in play.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 11:17 AM) Seriously, 7 innings of 2 hit shutout ball with 10 K's would be awesome. If nothing else, the K's should be there against the Braves.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/...o-be-jake-peavy

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 10:59 PM) Peavy is worth more than garza Not until he shows he is healthy.